Fantasy daily notes for May 21
Next Level notes by ESPN Stats & Info
Click through for information on specific matchups, injuries and weather for the day's games.
Starting pitcher rankings for May 21
| Name | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  | Stephen Strasburg | R | @SF | 10 | 2-5 | 2.83 | 1.12 | 1-1 | 2.42 | 1.12 |
| 2 |  | Adam Wainwright | R | @SD | 10 | 5-3 | 2.51 | 1.01 | 1-2 | 3.29 | 1.02 |
| 3 |  | Yu Darvish | R | OAK | 9 | 7-1 | 2.97 | 0.92 | 3-0 | 4.50 | 1.07 |
| 4 |  | Zack Greinke | R | @MIL | 6 | 2-0 | 1.62 | 0.78 | 1-0 | 1.69 | 0.94 |
| 5 |  | Max Scherzer | R | @CLE | 6 | 5-0 | 3.98 | 0.99 | 3-0 | 3.86 | 0.79 |
| 6 |  | Matt Cain | R | WSH | 9 | 3-2 | 5.43 | 1.21 | 3-0 | 4.23 | 1.16 |
| 7 |  | Alex Cobb | R | @TOR | 6 | 4-2 | 2.89 | 1.17 | 1-1 | 4.24 | 1.33 |
| 8 |  | Matt Garza | R | @PIT | 7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 9 |  | Tim Hudson | R | MIN | 9 | 4-3 | 5.12 | 1.31 | 2-2 | 5.87 | 1.30 |
| 10 |  | Wandy Rodriguez | L | CHC | 6 | 4-2 | 3.25 | 1.06 | 2-2 | 4.76 | 1.32 |
| 11 |  | Mike Leake | R | @NYM | 2 | 3-2 | 3.72 | 1.49 | 2-1 | 2.79 | 1.45 |
| 12 |  | Ian Kennedy | R | @COL | 5 | 2-3 | 4.88 | 1.36 | 1-1 | 5.11 | 1.42 |
| 13 |  | Tyler Cloyd | R | @MIA | 7 | 0-0 | 2.84 | 0.79 | 0-0 | 2.84 | 0.79 |
| 14 |  | Jerome Williams | R | SEA | 7 | 2-1 | 3.05 | 1.10 | 1-1 | 3.52 | 1.13 |
| 15 |  | Phil Hughes | R | @BAL | 3 | 2-3 | 5.88 | 1.55 | 2-1 | 8.16 | 1.60 |
| 16 |  | Jose Fernandez | R | PHI | 10 | 2-2 | 3.48 | 1.16 | 2-0 | 2.63 | 1.08 |
| 17 |  | Bud Norris | R | KC | 4 | 4-4 | 4.32 | 1.54 | 1-1 | 4.50 | 1.40 |
| 18 |  | Edinson Volquez | R | STL | 4 | 3-4 | 5.55 | 1.58 | 2-1 | 4.63 | 1.41 |
| 19 |  | Ramon Ortiz | R | TB | 5 | 1-1 | 2.35 | 1.43 | 1-1 | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| 20 |  | Jonathon Niese | L | CIN | 5 | 3-4 | 5.40 | 1.66 | 1-2 | 9.77 | 2.04 |
| 21 |  | Jose Quintana | L | BOS | 2 | 2-1 | 3.97 | 1.24 | 0-1 | 5.16 | 1.41 |
| 22 |  | Hiram Burgos | R | LAD | 1 | 1-2 | 6.58 | 1.50 | 0-2 | 9.00 | 1.87 |
| 23 |  | Miguel Gonzalez | R | NYY | 4 | 2-2 | 4.58 | 1.42 | 0-1 | 4.50 | 1.00 |
| 24 |  | Wade Davis | R | @HOU | 4 | 3-3 | 5.98 | 1.89 | 1-2 | 8.57 | 2.10 |
| 25 |  | Corey Kluber | R | DET | 1 | 3-2 | 5.40 | 1.41 | 1-2 | 7.71 | 1.71 |
| 26 |  | Aaron Harang | R | @LAA | 5 | 1-4 | 7.30 | 1.42 | 1-1 | 3.00 | 0.83 |
| 27 |  | Jhoulys Chacin | R | ARI | 5 | 3-3 | 4.07 | 1.31 | 0-3 | 7.79 | 1.90 |
| 28 |  | Mike Pelfrey | R | @ATL | 4 | 3-4 | 6.57 | 1.77 | 1-2 | 5.48 | 1.59 |
| 29 |  | Felix Doubront | L | @CWS | 2 | 3-1 | 6.03 | 1.82 | 0-1 | 9.00 | 2.50 |
| 30 |  | Dan Straily | R | @TEX | 1 | 1-2 | 7.27 | 1.46 | 0-2 | 8.84 | 1.71 |
Rk.: The author's ranking of that pitcher for that day only. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Opp: The pitcher's opponent for the day. QR: "Quality Rating," or the starting pitcher's matchup rating -- separate from the author's ranking -- which accounts for past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. OPS is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent. W-L: Pitcher's win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher's earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher's average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning.
Tuesday's MLB schedule affords a less-than-typical amount of stud pitchers, with just eight aces who are owned in at least 75 percent of ESPN.com leagues (Max Scherzer, Alex Cobb, Tim Hudson, Yu Darvish, Zack Greinke, Adam Wainwright, Stephen Strasburg and Matt Cain). That leaves plenty of chances for lesser-owned hurlers to thrive, especially these five pitchers who are still available on the waiver wire in at least 45 percent of the ESPN.com universe:
Matt Garza (42 percent ESPN.com fantasy ownership) could not ask for a much better opponent to begin his 2013 season as he takes the mound in PNC Park, which has played out as the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in terms of both runs and homers this year, according to ESPN.com's MLB Park Factors. Garza has faced the Pittsburgh Pirates only three times in his career, giving up zero, three and five earned runs in those three starts, all of which have occurred since 2011. The one consistent in those three outings has been control, where he's fanned 25 batters and walked just three over 19 innings. Although Dale Sveum has said that the 29-year-old will be limited to a pitch count of 90, that's still enough time for him to throw six strong innings. Pick him up in all fantasy formats.
Garza's mound opponent, Wandy Rodriguez (53 percent ESPN.com fantasy ownership), should also be starting in all fantasy leagues on Tuesday, which is usually the case when he takes the mound at PNC Park. So far this season, the left-hander is 3-1 with a 1.35 ERA and microscopic 0.68 WHIP in four home starts, fanning 23 and walking just three over 26 2/3 innings. He has also dominated the Chicago Cubs in his past six starts, carrying a 2.29 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 6.9 K/9 against them. Chicago has scored a dismal 2.95 runs per game on the road this season due largely to a hitting slash of .218/.265/.356. This makes Rodriguez a better win candidate than Garza on Tuesday.
I'm not deeming Mike Leake (4 percent ESPN.com fantasy ownership) a legitimate fantasy starter in 12-team leagues after a dominating performance of 6 2/3 shutout innings Wednesday against the Miami Marlins, but the New York Mets lineup that he's facing Tuesday isn't much better. In the past 10 home games, the Mets have scored a total of 21 runs with a .192 BA, .264 OBP and .306 SLG, leading to a 2-8 record at Citi Field. Leake has completely owned this team over four career starts against them, producing a 1.65 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and .262 opponents' slugging in these 109 plate appearances. The only three current Mets who have faced Leake at least 10 times in their careers (Marlon Byrd, David Wright and Daniel Murphy) are a combined 5-for-35 with seven strikeouts and just two walks against him. All of these factors make Leake a solid start in deeper fantasy formats on Tuesday.
Speaking of the Marlins, Tyler Cloyd (0.3 percent ESPN.com fantasy ownership) has the good fortune of facing the majors' worst offense that has scored 117 runs (2.66 per game), which are 25 fewer than any other major league club. Miami is 2-10 in its past four series with a total of 19 runs (1.58 per game) and a slash line of .197/.256/.285. Cloyd's season debut on May 10 was tremendous, as he went on the road and held the Arizona Diamondbacks to two runs and two hits in 6 1/3 innings. It's not a large sample size, but it's big enough for me to start Cloyd with confidence in most NL-only formats on Tuesday.
Jerome Williams (3 percent ESPN.com fantasy ownership) is not a long-term solution for fantasy owners, but he's pitched well enough this season (3.05 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) for me to think he'll also have success at home against the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday. It also helps that the M's have always floundered against Williams, batting a pitiful .201 with a .247 OBP and .282 SLG in 158 career plate appearances against the right-hander, with all of this action coming since 2011. Mound opponent Aaron Harang and his 7.30 ERA this season plus his current stiff back should not be able to beat the Los Angeles Angels who have pumped out 18 runs during a two-game win streak. Give Williams a start in AL-only formats on Tuesday.
Hitter matchup ratings for May 21
| Overall | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | 7 | 9 | 3 | 2 | | 4 | 6 | 1 | 3 | |
| | 8 | 9 | 6 | 6 | | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | |
| | 9 | 7 | 10 | 4 | | 9 | 10 | 6 | 3 | |
| | 7 | 4 | 7 | 5 | | 6 | 3 | 8 | 1 | |
| | 5 | 2 | 5 | 6 | | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | |
| | 10 | 10 | 9 | 6 | | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | |
| | 5 | 7 | 1 | 6 | | 6 | 5 | 6 | 8 | |
| | 7 | 7 | 5 | 1 | | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| | 10 | 8 | 10 | 4 | | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| | 8 | 8 | 7 | 2 | | 5 | 3 | 6 | 7 | |
| | 7 | 9 | 3 | 7 | | 6 | 10 | 1 | 4 | |
| | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | | 10 | 10 | 4 | 7 | |
| | 10 | 10 | 7 | 5 | | 5 | 4 | 4 | 7 | |
| | 5 | 7 | 1 | 5 | | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher's past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. "LHB" and "RHB" ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. OPS is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.
• Since May 5, Alex Gordon has compiled a 1.447 OPS against pitches on the outside third of the plate, helping to raise his season OPS on such pitches to .906, fifth in the AL among players who appeared in at least 40 games. Before May 5, Gordon's OPS was .614 on outside pitches.
• Of all hitters to appear in at least 40 games, J.J. Hardy leads the league in percentage of swings resulting in a ball put in play (58.6). His .235 batting average on the season actually could be higher; among hitters to appear in 40 games, he is tied for the fourth worst batting average on balls in play at .220, well below his career average of .273.
• Edward Mujica is the only pitcher in baseball to utilize the split-fingered fastball on more than half his pitches (61 percent). He has ended 12 of his 13 save opportunities with outs made on the pitch and has yet to blow a save for the Cardinals since taking over as the closer.
• Shin-Soo Choo has been getting on base at a .456 rate, behind only teammate Joey Votto for the league lead. This is a result of Choo's insistence on not swinging at bad pitches, as he's registered a 17.3 chase percentage, second lowest in the league among players who have appeared in at least 40 games. This is a significant increase over Reds leadoff hitters last season, who managed only a .254 on-base percentage.
• Jose Fernandez has used his curveball on 25.8 percent of his pitches, the sixth-highest rate among pitchers who have thrown at least 40 innings. The Phillies rank last in the league in on-base percentage (.179) in plate appearances ending on a curveball, chasing the pitch at a league high 31.8 percent.
Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas Rangers: He was placed on the 15-day DL on Sunday with a strained intercostal muscle, in a move made retroactive to May 18. Stud prospect Jurickson Profar was promoted from Triple-A to take Kinsler's place at second base. Profar should be added in all fantasy formats until Kinsler returns healthy.
Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates: He did not play Sunday due to a lingering sore knee that he suffered after sliding home on Thursday. The good news is that there is no structural damage, and McCutchen might not miss any more action.
Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals: He has not played since Friday due to lingering soreness in his left knee that he injured running into the outfield fence on May 13. The team hopes he can return to the lineup on Monday.
Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies: He has not played since Saturday due to lingering knee soreness and had a precautionary MRI on Monday to determine the severity of his injury. If the injury forces him to the disabled list, the team could recall slugger Darin Ruf, who led the minors with 38 homers last year.
Carlos Ruiz, C, Phillies: He left Sunday's game with a strained right hamstring and could wind up on the DL. Humberto Quintero will be Ruiz's replacement.
Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers: He missed Sunday's game with a lingering left knee issue that could require him to get more off days in the near future.
Angel Pagan, OF, San Francisco Giants: He exited Sunday's game early with flu-like symptoms, but it's possible that he could play on Monday.
Jaime Garcia, SP, St. Louis Cardinals: He was placed on the 15-day DL on Saturday with a strained left shoulder, and is visiting with Dr. James Andrews to see whether or not surgery is required. Tyler Lyons was called up from Triple-A to start in Garcia's place on Wednesday to make his MLB debut.
Jose Molina, C, Tampa Bay Rays: He exited Saturday's game early due to a tight left hamstring and hasn't played since. But the injury does not appear to be serious, and Molina expects to be back in the starting lineup by Tuesday.
David Freese, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals: He suffered a cut on his thumb that required stitches after making a tag on Sunday. He's considered day-to-day, and may not miss any game action.
Matt Garza, SP, Chicago Cubs: Garza, who has been out with a lat injury, will make his season debut on Tuesday. Garza's return relegates Carlos Villanueva to the bullpen.
Stephen Drew, SS, Red Sox: He hasn't played since Friday because of a stiff back, but should return to action shortly.
Zack Cozart, SS, Cincinnati Reds: He missed Sunday's game due to an illness, but should only miss a game or two. Cesar Izturis is his replacement.
