Cano's 2008 an anomaly
I like Howie Kendrick. He's an exceptionally talented batsman who has done nothing but hit for a high average everywhere he has played.
That said, in no way do I call him Robinson Cano's equal in fantasy, let alone Cano's superior. Their career numbers tell the story:
Cano (per 162 games): .303 BA, 18 HRs, 87 RBIs, 3 SBs, .335 OBP, .468 SLG
Kendrick (per 162 games): .306 BA, 8 HRs, 68 RBIs, 14 SBs, .333 OBP, .430 SLG
Effectively, Kendrick has the advantage in only one category, stolen bases, and if you look at each of the past three seasons, only in 2008 did he offer significantly more fantasy value than Cano (11 steals to Cano's two). Plus, evaluating their career numbers on a per-162-game basis ignores another set of important statistics:
Cano: 0 DL days in 2007-08
Kendrick: 107 DL days in 2007-08
That's a monstrous differential between the two in the health department. From another perspective, Cano played 21 fewer games in 2008 than Kendrick did the past two seasons combined. So not only has Kendrick been one of the most injury-prone players in his brief career, when he has been healthy, he hasn't been any more productive a fantasy player than Cano. And let's not forget that Cano's career numbers have been hurt by the fact he's coming off a disappointing 2008.
There's nothing to suggest age will impact either player's career growth or regression curve this season, either. Cano is 26, Kendrick 25 (and only nine months younger).
In other words, in order to consider Kendrick more valuable than Cano in 2009, you need to take three big leaps of faith:
• Kendrick can stay healthy for 150-plus games.
• Kendrick can convert some of the 46 doubles he has averaged per 162 games in his career into home runs, and/or find his way into a lineup spot that'll pad his RBI total.
• Cano will have a 2009 comparably disappointing to his 2008.
I could see one of those three things happening. Maybe even two. But the one I'd say has the least likelihood of happening is the third one. Cano's 2008 represents his basement expectation for this season, and if he rebounds, then not only is Kendrick going to need to stay healthy, he's going to need to significantly advance his level of production.
Cano probably will bat sixth in a potent lineup, and for all the complaints about his lackadaisical style of play, he did bat .300 with 12 home runs and 65 RBIs in 128 games from May 4 forward last season; projected to 162 games, that's 15 homers and 82 RBIs.
Remember, that should represent his basement expectation.
ESPN.com fantasy baseball analyst Tristan H. Cockcroft is a two-time LABR champion, most recently winning in 2008. You can e-mail him here.
Kendrick's speed rules all
When debating these two second basemen, we're talking about two players who need to prove themselves this season, in different ways.
Robinson Cano needs to prove he's a legitimate .300 hitter again, while Howie Kendrick -- a career .306 hitter in more than 1,000 big league at-bats, and a .360 hitter in 1,500 minor league ones -- needs to prove he can have a season in which he gets to the plate more than 500 times.
For me, it's not so much knocking Cano -- as I think he's going to bounce back a bit this year, even after a season in which his motivation was questioned by his manager -- as it is believing this is the year Hittin' Howie gets his 500-plus at-bats and puts it all together.
Kendrick's bat speed and ability to hit the ball with authority will allow him to drive some balls out even if he doesn't have much loft in his swing. You could make a case that his development, especially in hitting for power, has stagnated a bit because of the injuries he has sustained.
Of course, avoiding the injury bug is the key again. He had two DL stints in 2007 due to finger issues caused by being hit with pitches. Last season he dealt with a lingering hamstring injury and tried to come back too early from that ailment.
Has he had some bad luck the past two seasons? Yes. Does that mean any of his issues are chronic, and that we should severely downgrade his future playing time? Not necessarily, especially because he played in full campaigns in the two seasons prior.
As it so often does in fantasy, what puts Kendrick over the top for me is speed. Cano's career-high in stolen bases is five, and while both Kendrick and his manager Mike Scioscia have expressed in the past they think Kendrick can be a guy who steals 25-30 bases, I'm going to temper those expectations a bit and put his number somewhere between 15 and 20.
Let's say Cano hits .300 again with 15 homers and five steals while batting somewhere in the bottom of the order -- a reasonable expectation. Kendrick could hit .300 with 10-12 homers and 15-20 steals, while batting second in the Angels' lineup. Which player is more valuable?
Of course the trick is how many at-bats each will get and where. That will affect their batting averages, as well as their runs scored and RBI opportunities. However, if I think Kendrick is going to stay on the field this year -- and I do -- then the extra speed dimension puts him over the top.
For what it's worth, Kendrick has looked great this spring, hitting .354, slugging .563 and running the bases with abandon. With both players having things to prove this season, in this case I'll take the one who just needs to prove he can stay out of the trainer's room, as there's more upside there.
Jason Grey is a graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and has won two Tout Wars titles, one LABR title and numerous other national "experts" competitions.
