No Colorado, No Problem
Is this how anti-Matt Holliday the fantasy community has become? Now we're putting him in the class of a Matt Kemp, a player who has yet to have a 20-homer or 80-RBI season, and has all of 305 big league games on his résumé?
Even if you're one of those who foolishly believes Holliday's road statistics accurately demonstrate his talent, compare his numbers in his past 155 road games to Kemp's in 155 games in 2008 and Holliday still comes out ahead in four of the five Rotisserie categories:
Holliday: .296 BA, 23 HRs, 91 RBIs, 25 SBs, 105 Rs
Kemp: .290 BA, 18 HRs, 76 RBIs, 35 SBs, 93 Rs
That Holliday stat line, incidentally, represents what should be his basement expectation for 2009. But those of you who might have read my recent "30 Questions" column on Holliday probably already knew I think more highly of him than that. In fact, I've got Holliday projected for a safe, easy .300-30-100 season with 12-15 stolen bases, his steals down because of Oakland's team tendency not to run wild.
Not that Kemp can't be a .300-30-100 type, given time. Actually, I think that's what he'll eventually become. But he's 24 years old, had a scary 3.3-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 2008 and batted a forgettable .253 with three home runs and 13 RBIs in his final 44 games last season, postseason included. He'll also be batting either sixth or seventh in that Dodgers lineup, which will suppress his number of at-bats and RBIs.
It's nice to hear Kemp feels he's capable of a 40/40 season, but the steals is the only of those goals that seems attainable to me, and he'd need to get there just to match Holliday in terms of overall fantasy value. As is, he swiped 35 bags in 2008, so a bump up to 40 isn't really going to change the differential between his No. 9 ranking among outfielders on last year's Player Rater, compared to Holliday's No. 1. He'd probably need a 20/40 year with a .300 batting average, coupled with a noticeable drop-off by the ex-Rockie.
For all those reasons, I've got Holliday ranked clearly ahead of Kemp. Certainly by a more significant split than our group rankings of No. 9 for Holliday, No. 11 for Kemp.
Some of you might then wonder why, if I have Holliday rated higher, I picked Kemp first in our Feb. 18 mock draft? If you caught my chat a few days later, it contained my explanation: Knowing that I had Jason, my debate counterpart, drafting among the three owners between my third- and fourth-round picks, I figured if I didn't nab Kemp at No. 27, Jason would surely have scooped him up one spot later. I had a hunch -- which proved correct -- Jason wouldn't spring for Holliday that soon.
Unfortunately, one thing I didn't anticipate: Matthew Berry believing in Holliday to the extent I did. He snatched up the slugger 28th. Sigh.
It's not a mistake I plan to make again.
Don't Doubt This Dodger
When you're in a debate with someone, you're supposed to counter the opposition's arguments. This is where I'm supposed to counter Tristan's points about Matt Holliday's production moving out of Coors this season.
Hmm … Nope, Tristan did a good job. I'm not so naive to think that Holliday's career .280 AVG/.348 OBP/.455 SLG road marks, and the fact he's hit nearly twice as many homers at home, are necessarily representative of his true talent level. You don't just ignore what he's accomplished at home. He can still hit .300 and slug .500 even moving to a more pitching-friendly environment. I do think Tristan might be a bit high on the homer total, though. I see Holliday in the 20-25 range. I also buy the 12-15 steals.
However, to me the argument isn't so much what Holliday might lose from his numbers this season, but what kind of stats Matt Kemp can put up.
Kemp's .290 BA, 18 HRs, 76 RBIs, 35 SBs, 93 Rs 2008 line could be his basement expectation for 2009. We haven't seen his best season yet. Granted, the steals total is too high to be considered basement, but at a minimum I would expect him to repeat his numbers in the other categories.
Tristan points out that Kemp struck out 153 times last year. However, it's worth noting that he struck out in just 18 percent of his at-bats after the break, compared to 31 percent before. Pointing out poor numbers in his final 44 games is just a small sample size that ignores the fact that Kemp's batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage were all higher in the second half. There's more power coming. He also had a relatively down year against right-handed pitching that was a bit uncharacteristic given his pro history, and that should correct somewhat.
While the 40/40 proclamations of Kemp are part of the usual spring noise, he did put in a grueling offseason conditioning regimen for the first time, including working with a track coach on his jumps. He's going to continue to run frequently.
I also expect Kemp to wind up spending more time batting fourth or fifth in the order than sixth or seventh by the time the season is done. Do we really think James Loney or Casey Blake will stay hitting in front of him?
What it comes down to is the speed. Kemp is very capable of hitting .300 again, and the numbers in the other categories will be closer than many think. We could be talking about a 20-steal difference in production, and that's significant. Enough to give Kemp more value than Holliday over the replacement level outfielder.
One thing I have to watch in my own fantasy play is sometimes getting a bit too immersed in a young player's upside and passing on the safer, more stable veteran, and it's entirely possible I might be doing that in this case.
However, Tristan, I don't think you made a mistake in picking Kemp in that mock draft.
