Relief Efforts: Pay for Saves?
I am declaring April 2, 2007, the end of the "Don't Pay for Saves" Era. It was fun while it lasted. Unfortunately, the second Brad Lidge gave up a two-out, first-pitch, save-blowing homer to Xavier Nady, we all ran to the waiver wire to pick up Dan Wheeler, who, we found out, had already been drafted. He was drafted early, in fact, before lesser closers like Octavio Dotel and Salomon Torres. Face it, as I've said for months, the proliferation of information regarding pitchers available on the Internet has reached a saturation point, and the only way we can get more is to become pitching coaches. Then again, I could list a couple of coaches who seem to make decisions with less information than my fellow fantasy team owners do, but that's another column.
The disease of over-information is manifesting itself in the following three symptoms:
• Closer handcuffs are all being drafted, some before actual closers (I've seen Akinori Otsuka go before Eric Gagne).
• In auctions, elite closers are going for over $20, and second-tier guys are going for $10-15, but closers-in-waiting are also going for over $10 (I won't tell you how much I paid for Rafael Soriano last weekend).
• In order to stay one step ahead, fantasy team owners are taking any middle reliever rumored to be in line for saves. With the guy behind the guy behind the closer getting drafted, in some leagues the fourth and fifth rotation starters are more likely to be available on the waiver wire than a middle reliever in line for saves.
And even though I'm in cutthroat leagues, notes from my readers confirm their league drafts and auctions have seen the same results. So keep in mind as you manage your pitching staff this year that relief pitcher inflation has resulted in starting pitcher devaluation.
| Team | Closer | Set-up Man | Closer-in-Waiting |
| BAL | Chris Ray | Danys Baez | Danys Baez |
| BOS | Jonathan Papelbon | Mike Timlin (DL) | Mike Timlin (DL) |
| CWS | Bobby Jenks | Mike MacDougal | Matt Thornton |
| CLE | Joe Borowski | Rafael Betancourt | Roberto Hernandez |
| DET | Todd Jones | Joel Zumaya | Joel Zumaya |
| KC | Octavio Dotel (DL) | David Riske | David Riske |
| LAA | Francisco Rodriguez | Scot Shields | Scot Shields |
| MIN | Joe Nathan | Juan Rincon | Pat Neshek |
| NYY | Mariano Rivera | Luis Vizcaino | Scott Proctor |
| OAK | Huston Street | Justin Duchscherer | Justin Duchscherer |
| SEA | J.J. Putz | Chris Reitsma | Julio Mateo |
| TB | Al Reyes | Brian Stokes | Juan Salas |
| TEX | Eric Gagne (DL) | Akinori Otsuka | Akinori Otsuka |
| TOR | B.J. Ryan | Jason Frasor | Jason Frasor |
Baltimore Orioles: The signs are there that Chris Ray won't pitch as well as last year, but I'm far from a Danys Baez fan. Sendy Rleal is on the DL with elbow soreness and will start in Triple A, but keep an eye on a call-up. Plus, Chad "Moneyball" Bradford could lurk around for vulture wins.
Boston Red Sox: Finally, someone in baseball listens to me. Well, I'll pretend like the Red Sox did. Jonathan Papelbon has always been their best closer option, even at the expense of a fifth starter. Unfortunately, there's a huge drop-off after Papelbon, with 41-year-old Mike Timlin still being the second-best pitcher in the bullpen. Timlin will be off the DL next week.
Chicago White Sox: So we're still not convinced about Bobby Jenks, are we? Well, I am not one of those advocating picking up Mike MacDougal. The man you really want is Matt Thornton, who manager Ozzie Guillen indicated could see time as closer while Jenks gets up to speed.
Cleveland Indians: Joe Borowski is one of those closers we pick up late in drafts and then hate ourselves for the pick. As discussed above, he's being taken after the set-up men for a lot of other teams. With the high expectations the Indians have for this season, it's only a matter of time before he loses the job. And even if he keeps it, he's not the kind to give you consecutive-night saves. So Rafael Betancourt is your man, if he can pass the audition. In the past, he hasn't. Here are two more names to keep in mind who could have an impact in the last inning: Tony Sipp, the closer of the future who is currently in the minors, and Tom Mastny, who was filthy in spring training (meaning he pitched well, not that his hygiene was lacking).
Detroit Tigers: It's not a good sign when Willard Scott mentions your birthday -- OK, a worse sign is when you mention Scott in your column -- but somehow Todd Jones keeps churning out the saves. Of course, he has fire-throwing Joel Zumaya on his heels. Look, either way you win with this. Jones should do his job, but if you get Zumaya as insurance, you should see some good strikeouts and vulture wins even if he doesn't see save situations. Of course, Fernando Rodney is in the closer equation, but that ship has sailed. Even though the closer is 38 years old, I'm putting my chips on the 22-year-old Zumaya, who can hit triple-digit velocity, rather than the 30-year-old Rodney who hasn't averaged a strikeout per inning in the bigs since 2003. Oh, and don't go anywhere near Jose Mesa (especially if you're Omar Vizquel).
Kansas City Royals: We knew Octavio Dotel was a gamble, but at least he's doing us the favor of starting the year on the DL so we can see who his replacement will be. Right now, that replacement is David Riske, but there are two other names to watch: Joel Peralta and Joakim Soria. My choice is Soria, but I'm not usually consulted on these decisions (except of course by the Red Sox).
Los Angeles Angels: Francisco Rodriguez is really good. I don't really need to say more than that. Scot Shields could go the whole year without a vulture save, but he's so good he's still worth drafting -- especially in leagues with holds -- and could be a candidate for King Vulture. However, another name for vulture wins is Justin Speier, who has always pitched well and seems to be locked in right behind Shields.
Minnesota Twins: Joe Nathan is routinely being taken as the first closer from the American League -- I actually think the first should be K-Rod, but that's just me -- and is a good anchor to your relief staff. My Closer-in-Waiting and Set-up Man may not match yours for the Twins, but they have three relievers -- Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain and Pat Neshek -- who each could do either job. However, I chose Rincon because of his seniority in the job as set-up man, and I chose Neshek over Crain for closer because the former is a strikeout man. Crain did increase his strikeouts last year over 2005, but it came at a cost of his ratios.
New York Yankees: Mariano Rivera is in a contract year, but no matter how much posturing we see, the Yankees will cave. And they should. If we've learned anything the last few years, it's that bad relievers kill playoff hopes, and good, steady ones are rare. As for who is behind him, it's not Kyle Farnsworth. Yes, he has mad velocity, but he's never shown he can handle the job (or in some instances, find the plate). Luis Vizcaino will be a good win vulture for a team that can come back any time it wants. My pick for closer if Rivera goes down is Scott Proctor, who looked good in spring training and could do the job if given the chance.
Oakland A's: Huston Street should cut down on the blown saves this year, and there's no reason to worry. Justin Duchscherer is the man most likely to see saves when Street can't go, and he should be considered on the same level as the Angels' Shields. However, the most valuable fantasy man in that bullpen may turn out to be Kiko Calero, who has always been a middle reliever favorite among those who chase them. Oh, and if you want another name, watch for Marcus McBeth to get a call-up during the year. He has closer stuff.
Seattle Mariners: J.J. Putz had elbow problems in spring training but appears to be OK. For now. Chris Reitsma is likely his set-up man, but I'm not going anywhere near him. Julio Mateo probably sees vulture save chances and gets first dibs if Putz's elbow problems re-emerge. However, don't forget about Mark Lowe, who was great last year and is on the DL through at least July. While Brandon Morrow has gotten the fast-track treatment into the bullpen, remember he's really a starter. He's a good pickup in keeper leagues, however.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays: The demotions of Seth McClung and Chad Orvella sent shock waves through the Scrounging for Saves community. But they did make things incrementally clearer. Al Reyes is likely the closer, with Brian Stokes somewhere in the relief pitcher picture. However, the guy who has the best stuff to take the job is probably Juan Salas. He gave up a home run in his debut Monday, but it was to A-Rod in a potential walk year, and the list of pitchers Rodriguez will abuse this year will be long and distinguished. I have Salas on two teams and think he'll see a make-or-break point as the closer by midseason.
Texas Rangers: The Rangers tell us Eric Gagne is on the DL to ease him into his job. Well, we saw how well he eased back into his job with the Dodgers, didn't we. Look, if someone dumped him on the waiver wire, sure, get him. But to me, Akinori Otsuka is the real closer for the Rangers, and I have Gagne's name in my table only as a courtesy. Joaquin Benoit had the best spring of any other Rangers reliever, but don't forget Frankie Francisco as well.
Toronto Blue Jays: B.J. Ryan had some back issues in spring training but appears to be healthy. We could easily use his name in the same sentence as the Twins' Nathan and the Angels' Rodriguez. Behind him is Jason Frasor, and don't forget about Jeremy Accardo, who is a favorite sleeper among fantasy pundits. Brandon League is still the closer of the future, but that future only gets closer on another team. Lastly, as I said last week, Casey Janssen should be in the rotation, not the bullpen. But while in the pen, it looks like he'll be a long reliever, which we know is a nice place to be for vulture wins.
David Young is a fantasy analyst for ESPN.com and TalentedMrRoto.com. E-mail him at MrSnappy@TalentedMrRoto.com
