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Good news, everybody! Opening Day is finally here. It's time to watch games that count and get started on the road to a fantasy title. But just because everything seems fresh and new, don't make any silly decisions based on just one day's worth of games.

Nothing can wreak havoc more on a fantasy baseball strategy than actually watching the first few days of the season.

Who the heck is Brandon Moss? How far does Huston Street fall down the draft lists? Is it time to trade that bum David Ortiz (0-for-7 in Japan) for speedster Kurt Suzuki (he of the first stolen base of 2008)? Is Odalis Perez a fantasy ace?

The most glaring example of overreacting to Opening Day that I can remember was Tuffy Rhodes going for $25 after his three-homer performance in my long-running NL-only league back in 1994. Rhodes finished with eight homers total that season and was on his way to Japan not long after.

So yes, it's very easy to be overly influenced by the events of just a few days. But if you take a calm but calculated approach to the first week of games (yes, it can be hard because we're all excited to see regular-season baseball again), then you can be on your way toward succeeding over a long season.

So here are some tips to get you through the first week of the season without doing anything foolish. This will cover both teams who have yet to draft as well as those whose rosters are set.

Just because someone cracked the opening day starting lineup doesn't mean he'll be there all season. And it definitely doesn't mean his fantasy value should increase automatically. Scott Hatteberg, Alexei Ramirez, Nick Johnson and Andre Ethier all look like better values now that they've got starting jobs, but how long will that last? They've got to produce. If not, other guys definitely are waiting in the wings to replace them. However, you'll at least get an extended look at them in the lineup to decide whether they are worth picking up.

That was the case back in 2001 when Albert Pujols surprisingly made the Cardinals' opening day lineup in left field. While he didn't do much his first three games, he then went on a 10-RBI binge in the next four games. At that point, Pujols went from fantasy unknown to fantasy stud and hasn't looked back. If you took a chance on him after those first few games, you definitely got rewarded.

On the other hand, hopefully nobody got too wrapped up in Brandon Moss' homer in the opener in Japan, especially since he was already sent back to the minors. Then again, those Japan games were so early that everyone had a better sense of perspective about Moss' value, so he didn't get the Tuffy Rhodes treatment.

As for pitchers, being the No. 1 guy doesn't always mean a whole lot for fantasy purposes, other than that he'll likely get two starts this week. Sure, Johan Santana, Brandon Webb and C.C. Sabathia are opening day starters. But so are Mark Hendrickson and Livan Hernandez. For goodness' sakes, Carl Pavano was the Yankees' starter on Opening Day last year.

But in that never-ending search for good pitching, a solid opening day performance will attract a little extra attention, no matter who the pitcher is. Perez is suddenly relevant for at least a day after a solid outing in his Nationals debut.

However, the more intriguing part of the opening week with regard to pitching is figuring out murky closer situations. Usually a guy or two will emerge in that first week. That was definitely the case with Al Reyes last year, for example. He saved the second game of the season for the Rays, then finished with a solid 26. That's an example of how saves can come into the league after the draft (or suddenly enter the draft).

Guys like Johnson and Ethier were sleeper picks early in the spring as they competed for jobs. Now that they've earned their lineup spots, they likely won't come at a value price anymore, especially if they get off to a good start. Instead, the bargains will either be those surprise starters (see Ramirez now or Pujols then) who you're not sure if they're for real, or they'll be the guys who lost out on the opening day job but should still be in line for playing time (Juan Pierre, for example) as managers continue to tinker with the lineup. Though they're not starting on Opening Day, it doesn't mean they won't get a lot of playing time after that.

It also would be worth paying attention to some setup men the first week, especially if a shaky closer has yet to inspire any confidence. Or if you're Jon Rauch and you suddenly get a save chance because Chad Cordero hurt his shoulder warming up Sunday.

If you've got bench space, it might be worth stashing away a potential closer long before there's a bidding war for his services when he actually gets the job.

Sure, guys like John Smoltz, Brad Lidge and Josh Beckett are opening the season on the disabled list, but they've all had their transactions backdated so that they can return as early as this week. If you've already got these guys on your roster, it's probably not worth your time benching them for whatever is left on the waiver wire. And it's definitely not worth lowering their draft day value because of it.

On the other hand, you should keep an eye on the progress of guys like Scott Kazmir, John Lackey and Curtis Granderson, who all got hurt in spring training and may not be back for a month or more. They can become draft day steals because of their injury status if they can produce their usual stats once they return.

The more interesting cases would be guys like Kaz Matsui and Francisco Liriano, who aren't on the opening day roster but should be up after a couple of weeks. You probably don't want to have a zero from the position, but what type of player do you want in his place? His immediate backup (Mark Loretta in the case of Matsui) or some other guy who's made an early impact elsewhere? That takes us to &

No, you shouldn't bid $25 on Tuffy Rhodes or drop Huston Street after that one blown save in Japan. But most teams probably already have some dregs on the roster even before the first pitch of the season, or have a couple of injury holes to fill (like Kazmir or Granderson). Those are the best situations to take a chance on some of the guys who have raced out of the gate, instead of just picking up the next guy on the depth chart. If they play well, you've got either really cheap production or a great trade chip. If they don't, you won't feel bad cutting them when the next big thing comes along. Just remember that it's those back end guys whom you can probably afford to drop, not your top draft picks.

OK, so your fantasy ace might've gotten roughed up, or all of your hitters have put up 0-fers to start the season. It's not the time to start trading off all the slow starters for those first-week wonders. Granted, it's worth being concerned, but it's a long season, and a lot of the players will return to their expected numbers. You don't want to be the one who sold low and bought high, especially at this stage in the season.

So have fun watching the first week of the season and seeing your fantasy team rack up the stats. But be sure to have a sense of perspective this early in the season. Where you're standing after Opening Day most likely isn't where you'll be at the end of the season.

James Quintong is an editor for ESPN Fantasy.