All-2012 Team ... The aftermath
I love a good debate. And nothing can spawn one like predicting the future.
That's right, last week, it was "flash-forward" time, and that's not referring to the "Lost" season finale. No, in this space a week ago, I ran my All-2012 Team, which brought out the fantasy faithful to debate the future's best prospects (OK, some were current studs).
Here's the fun part about predicting the future: There's no right answer. Going back to that "Lost" parallel, think you know how "Jeremy Bentham" met his ultimate demise, what "very bad things" happened on the island or where the heck the island went in the first place? I'll bet you're wrong on at least one of the three topics. In the same fashion, if you think you know where Alex Rodriguez will rank on the final Player Rater, where Tim Beckham will be playing or who will be closing for the Rays in 2012, again, I'm going to bet you'll wind up wrong on at least one of those three, too.
But that's the fun of playing out the next four seasons, right?
Everyone has his/her own opinion, and plenty of readers shared theirs with me in the past week. Here's a quick look at some of your thoughts about my choices, and my responses as to why some of the players you asked about missed the cut:
Zach: How does Edinson Volquez not even make your "best of the rest" list for starting pitchers? He has been out of this world this year and is only 24 years old. He is about the same age as Clay Buchholz and their seasons this year aren't even comparable.
Tristan: Edinson Volquez, believe it or not, was the most asked-about omission from my list, yet in composing it, I didn't think twice about excluding him. Not that I think he's a total fluke; he's 21st on my list of starting pitchers from today through season's end. But to say Volquez is going to sustain this level of performance all this year, let alone for four years through 2012, is a whole different story. Two knocks against him: The Reds play in a ballpark awfully favorable for hitters, and their manager has a poor reputation for ruining young arms. I'm prepared for the prospect Volquez will prove me horribly wrong, but since his long-term circumstances aren't ideal and I don't recall scouts calling him future annual Cy Young talent, I easily slid him in a little beneath the cut.
Brad, St. Louis: Just curious why you left off Matt Holliday. Do you think he will have a short "prime" portion of his career?
Tristan: With Holliday it's more a matter of contract concerns, because let's face it, his career road OPS is .780, more than 300 points beneath his number at Coors. If he were to leave the Rockies as a free agent after next season, which is a possibility, his numbers would certainly be expected to tumble a bit by his age-32 season in 2012. That I excluded him as a result shows how real I consider that risk; that's all it is.
Dan, Boston: Your "All-2012" team is basically an "All-2008" team. Anybody with that fantasy roster would be dominating this year. I would expect to see a team of prospects, not guys who have already emerged.
Tristan: Well, Matt Wieters wouldn't be helping you in 2008. Still, it's a valid point, Dan, and one made by a few readers. Keep in mind that while things can change dramatically over a four-year span, it doesn't always mean they do. Take a look at the top 25 dollar-value earners from the 2004 season:
1. Johan Santana
2. Vladimir Guerrero
3. Albert Pujols
4. Randy Johnson
5. Adrian Beltre
6. Bobby Abreu
7. Barry Bonds
8. Carlos Beltran
9. Ichiro Suzuki
10. Alex Rodriguez
11. Miguel Tejada
12. Ben Sheets
13. Manny Ramirez
14. Eric Gagne
15. Melvin Mora
16. Todd Helton
17. Carl Crawford
18. Jason Schmidt
19. Curt Schilling
20. Jim Edmonds
21. Scott Rolen
22. Mariano Rivera
23. David Ortiz
24. Lance Berkman
25. Brad Lidge
Nine of those 25 were surefire top-25 picks this preseason, and I'd say only six -- Bonds, Gagne, Mora, Schmidt, Schilling and Edmonds -- are no longer very valuable. I don't call that a lot of turnover, so I couldn't knock too many of this year's studs.
Tristan's All-2012 Team
Only current minor leaguers/amateurs
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C: Matt Wieters, Max Ramirez |
I do see what you're getting at, though, and to address the matter of prospects, in the table at right, I've put together what my All-2012 Team would be if the rules also included this line: The player must not currently reside on an active big league roster (or DL).
Balimer: I suspect that you have short-listed the Orioles. Adam Jones in center has a shot as do a whole handful of young pitchers, some still in the minors, who will lead the O's into the World Series before 2012. Oh yes, don't forget Daniel Cabrera, who seems to have found a pitching coach who speaks his language (and I don't mean Spanish).
Tristan: Jones was under consideration, but he's going to need to make vast strides in his plate discipline before I'd call him a five-category fantasy stud. He's not quite the base stealer people seem to think he is, and he might always be a batting-average risk. Of course, Alfonso Soriano has carved out a nice little career for himself with similar skills, but those types of players don't tend to come around very often.
As for Cabrera, he's definitely a better pitcher today than in the past, but as for him being a future ace? Let's just say that ship has sailed.
Darin, Green Bay: One correction I feel needs to be made. Switch Matt LaPorta and Prince Fielder. LaPorta was a first baseman before and I think his athletic ability mixed with Prince's weight makes Prince the more likely candidate to be moved to DH.
Tristan: I can't deny that possibility, but with Fielder under the Brewers' control through 2011, manning first base, Ryan Braun in left field and Corey Hart in right field and no benefit of a DH spot, LaPorta might be the one the Brewers are forced to shop to an American League team. It could be Fielder being moved in a few years to clear a spot for LaPorta, but I see LaPorta being ready before the end of next season, so that decision is probably going to come sooner than you think.
John, Dallas: Phil Hughes should have been on the list. Although he has struggled thus far, he is going to be a Cy Young winner in the next five years.
Tristan: As a Yankees fan, John, I do hope you're right! As a fantasy owner, I can't say that's at all guaranteed. Hughes' injuries at such a young age do have me a little more worried about him than I was, say, a year and a half ago, and I'm beginning to wonder whether he's more suited to be a No. 2/3 starter than a true ace.
Scott, Philadelphia: How can you not include David Price on the 2012 team? You have players like Rick Porcello and Jake McGee on the list, and while they are talented, I don't think they have quite the repertoire or polish that Price has. I like the rest of the choices though, but think that maybe Angel Villalona and Fernando Martinez should crack the list too.
Tristan: Again, pitchers with health issues -- particularly elbow problems -- tend to scare me, though Price is pitching remarkably well since his return to action the past few weeks. I really think that if any one player was a glaring omission, it's Price. Still, talk that he's going to make an impact in 2008 seems a bit absurd to me. The Rays' rotation is already rather solid, the team is chock full of pitching prospects, and most of those have remained a bit healthier than he has so far this year. No need to rush the kid, I'd say.
Villalona is an intriguing long-term prospect, but did you know he'll be only 21 come Opening Day 2012? Incredible. That's going to require some serious patience for keeper-league owners. Martinez, as you'll see above, is on my all-2012 prospects list.
Aaron, Fort Wayne, Ind.: I'll take my chances with Jay Bruce over Ryan Braun.
Tristan: As things look today, it sure seems like Bruce could breeze past Braun by 2012, doesn't it? Amazing how much buzz a strong first week can generate, which is why I'd advise Bruce's owners in redraft leagues to at least float his name on the trade market. Craziest Bruce trade I've heard this week: Johan Santana, straight up. Wow.
Back to the reasoning behind my choice: The aforementioned Prince Fielder might be the only player age 25 or less whom I see with better raw power upside than Ryan Braun. Seriously, Braun has 50-homer power. His ceiling is that high.
Ryan, Buffalo, N.Y.: No Chien-Ming Wang ... You clearly have no clue. No wonder I have never heard of you!
Tristan: And that was one of the kinder ones among colorful criticisms! Ryan, I've got plenty of respect for Wang as a pitcher, but the bottom line is that he's a much more valuable commodity on the field than in a fantasy lineup. Not once has he had an ERA beneath 3.50 or WHIP beneath 1.20 (including this year, so far), and he'll be 32 come Opening Day 2012. And I refuse to build long term around pitchers whose fantasy value is so closely tied to their performance in the wins category.
Ralph, Tampa, Fla.: I was wondering if you gave any thought to including Yu Darvish. I realize it's no certainty he'll be in MLB by then (or ever), but would he rate as a sleeper at least?
Tristan: It was considered, Ralph, but be aware that Darvish won't be able to come to the States under his own power until 2014. He'd need to be posted by his Japanese team to come over before then. Besides, I look at what Daisuke Matsuzaka, a somewhat comparable talent, has done in a year and a half thus far, and think a conservative approach will be warranted with Darvish. Not that Darvish won't be capable of top-25 starter status the moment he reaches the States, but the buzz will certainly be greater than it was with Dice-K, and let's not forget, the latter was a mild disappointment a year ago.
Jeremy, New York via Chicago: I can't believe you left Carlos Zambrano off your fantasy all-stars 2012 list. Justin Verlander over "Big Z"? He's young, gets strikeouts, and has a good sinker. He's going to be one of the best pitchers in baseball for years to come. His numbers this year aren't a fluke, they are the first evidence of his future brilliance.
Tristan: Carlos Zambrano might be the guy I wind up being most wrong about this season; I'm prepared for that possibility. But his 2007 problems were awfully troublesome, and they continue to caution me about his value in the long haul. Zambrano is in the midst of a streak of five straight 200-inning campaigns, dating back to his age-21 season, and he's on pace for 240 1/3 this year (plus possible postseason frames), which is a lot. If he's still pitching this effectively in his age-30 season in 2012 -- I think he'll step back to more No. 3 starter type numbers -- he'll shock me, while his efforts this year merely surprise me a bit.
Jason, Cincinnati: I think you're forgetting about Yanks' first pick Andrew Brackman. He'll be an All-Star by 2012. If he recovers fully from Tommy John surgery, he may be the best out of the group you named.
Tristan: He'll be lucky to pitch in a pro game this season, and is at least a year and a half of game action from helping the Yankees. Call Brackman, the Yankees' first rounder in 2007, a risk/reward type prospect, but in keeper leagues, there's no need to take chances on a guy who's coming off such a serious surgery and is so far from being big league ready.
Zach, Fort Lauderdale, Texas: No Hunter Pence in the outfield for the all-2012 team? The state of Texas begs to differ.
Tristan: You read it right, Zach, I messed with Texas. Not that Pence is a poor keeper, but to put it simply, I think the .299-12 HR-55 RBIs stat line he has posted in 90 games since returning from a wrist injury is demonstrative of the type of hitter he is. (By the way, scaled to a 150-game season, that's 20 homers and 92 RBIs, though I could see him approaching 30-100.) Is that a good player? Certainly. Is that an elite, "all-2012" player? You already know my take.
Nick Demola, Sacramento, Calif.: Is Homer Bailey still on the radar for 2012?
Tristan: I see nothing but reports all around criticizing Bailey's attitude and maturity level, and such things do lead me to worry about his long-term future. For 2008, I'd certainly stash him on a bench in an NL-only or deep-mixed league, but that's hardly a recommendation to use him. Remember, some top prospects don't ever make it, and right now, Bailey is looking like as good a candidate as any. He's way too far off what I'd consider the right track to even be a candidate for the all-2012 team.
Grant, Seattle, Wash.: On your All-2012 team, I'm going to assume that you forgot some players, because these are some good players, Jeff Clement, Wladimir Balentien, Carlos Triunfel and Brandon Morrow? You don't think that they'll be among the best in a couple years?
Tristan: Clement made my all-2012 prospects list above, and Triunfel, for all his talent, will be only 22 years old come Opening Day 2012. It's too soon for him. Morrow is the interesting mention here; he might rank as a top-10 closer with ease by 2012. Had I added a "sleeper" line for relief pitchers, he probably would've been my choice.
Tristan H. Cockcroft covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.
