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October 10, 2008, 3:20 PM

Fun with the Player Rater: 2008 recap

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By James Quintong
ESPN.com
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October is a time of transition for fantasy baseball owners. The regular season is over, so there are no games that actually mean something until next spring. Yes, there is a month of exciting postseason play, but it only has secondary impact on your fantasy strategy going forward -- unless you're among the few who do a league among the playoff teams (and my condolences to those who relied on the Cubs in those leagues).

Keeper-league owners are already starting to get their rosters in shape, but the flurry of offseason movement that piques the interest of many baseball fans and fantasy owners won't take place for a few more weeks, when the postseason is over.

So while we're enjoying the playoffs, why not take a look back at some of the top fantasy performers of the 2008 season, and get a head start on the inevitable awards debates that will flare up once the season is over and eventually is the coda to the long season.

So taking a look at the returns from this year's Player Rater, let's hand out some fantasy hardware for the 2008 season.

Player of the Year/NL MVP: Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals: An elbow injury dropped his stock in many leagues, as there were fears that he could miss considerable time, especially if the Cardinals were out of the race by midsummer. Instead, Pujols did what Pujols usually does, and combined with such surprise fantasy performers as Ryan Ludwick and Kyle Lohse, kept St. Louis in the race much longer than expected. In a down year offensively across the board, Pujols' stellar line stands out even more. The elbow is still a question mark heading into the offseason, but knows that when he plays, he produces.

Pitcher of the Year/AL Cy Young: Roy Halladay, P, Blue Jays: He ranks ahead of Cliff Lee, who probably will win the AL Cy Young award; CC Sabathia, who was lights-out after his trade to the Brewers; and Tim Lincecum, who has a shot at the NL Cy Young. Quietly, he amassed 20 wins and racked up a career-high 206 strikeouts (a big surprise after a number of years of declining K/9 rate). His nine complete games -- and, more importantly, his 246 innings pitched -- probably played a large part in his being the No. 1 pitcher, as his already solid ERA and WHIP numbers are enhanced even more in the Player Rater with all the work he got.

AL MVP: Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox: This is probably better described as the highest-rated AL hitter on the board, since Halladay and Lee both rank ahead of him. But talk of Pedroia winning MVP isn't crazy given this development. Pedroia ranks just slightly ahead of Alex Rodriguez, making up much of the gap on the Player Rater with his .326 average. With a solid package of speed, power, run production and average, Pedroia put up the type of numbers most fantasy owners are used to expecting from Derek Jeter. Also, who would've thought that Pedroia, the 2007 AL Rookie of the Year, would outrank his counterpart from the NL, Ryan Braun, this season?

NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum, P, Giants: It's not all about wins, which is why he gets the nod over Brandon Webb. In fact, Johan Santana also ranks ahead of Webb among NL starters (although it would've been a closer fight for the top NL starter had the Mets bullpen not blown so many of Santana's potential wins). Lincecum led the majors with 265 strikeouts and was second in the NL in ERA and wins. The 18 W's are a nice surprise, given that few expected Lincecum would get the run support needed to get such a lofty total. Lincecum looks like he'll be even better, and he'll be one of the first starting pitchers taken next year.

Special consideration: CC Sabathia, P, Brewers; Manny Ramirez, OF, Dodgers: Their insane stats after moving from the AL to the NL catapulted both of them into the top 10 on the Player Rater. NL-only owners who won the bidding on these guys, as well as AL-only owners who were able to retain their stats once they switched teams, probably cashed in most on them. They definitely are in the mix for fantasy MVP honors, given how they probably gave mixed-league teams huge boosts after the All-Star break.

AL Rookie of the Year: Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox: For a while, he ranked among the top AL outfielders, period, primarily because of his stolen bases (50 for the season), but slipped back a bit toward the end of the year. The speed was great, and batting at the top of that Boston lineup helped him score 98 runs. Evan Longoria likely will win the actual award, but his injury cost him a chance to move further up the Player Rater, although what he did in the at-bats he got was impressive. In fact, Longoria probably will be drafted ahead of Ellsbury in many places next season.

NL Rookie of the Year: Joey Votto, 1B, Reds: Geovany Soto may end up with the award because he played well for a catcher (although he was just fifth overall at the position) and was a big part of a high-profile Cubs team, but for overall numbers, Votto was ahead in four of the five primary roto categories, and just two behind in RBIs. After a slow start, Votto proved he was worthy of the rookie hype. It will be interesting to see if Votto will be drafted ahead of rookie teammate Jay Bruce next spring.

Biggest fantasy hitting surprise: Ryan Ludwick, OF, Cardinals: Using average draft position as a guide, Ludwick has to win this award after finishing 24th overall while having no ADP in mixed leagues, and was also ignored in many NL-only leagues. While Ludwick showed some power last season, who would've figured that he'd post similar roto stats as Albert Pujols? While Ludwick probably came as a great fantasy bargain this year, be careful when drafting him in 2009, as in don't expect him to repeat those numbers.

Biggest fantasy pitching surprise: Cliff Lee, P, Indians: After being sent to the minors in the middle of last year, Lee was on few fantasy radars heading into 2008, his 18-win effort from 2005 a distant memory. Then he got off to a blazing start and kept that up all season long and finished with a 22-3 record, along with stellar ERA and WHIP stats. Other pitchers who finished high on the Player Rater but had no ADP this season include: Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, Mike Mussina and Edinson Volquez.

Biggest fantasy hitting bust: Travis Hafner, DH, Indians: Figuring the biggest busts have to come from the highest-rated players in terms of ADP, I limited my search to the top 50 drafted players entering the season. While Hafner was still a bit overdrafted (ADP of 43) despite a disappointing 2007, few would've expected such a huge dropoff to the point that he finished the season batting worse than .200 with just five homers. A shoulder injury shelved him for much of the season, and he didn't do much when he was in there. According to the Player Rater, he ranked just ahead of Angel Berroa and Justin Huber but behind Matt Chico and Hideo Nomo. Yuck. Other bust candidates include Victor Martinez and Eric Byrnes.

Biggest fantasy pitching bust: Erik Bedard, P, Mariners: This one was pretty much a no-brainer. His ADP entering the season was 27, just ahead of Brandon Webb, but you know how that turned out. Bedard couldn't stay healthy all year, first missing time in April with a hip ailment and then being shut down for the season with shoulder surgery in July. When he was healthy, he was passable, but let's just say fantasy owners weren't completely devastated when he was shut down for the season; you could see it coming.

Reliever of the year: Mariano Rivera, P, Yankees: Surprise! Francisco Rodriguez's record 62 saves were only enough to get him the No. 2 spot among relievers, according to the Player Rater. Granted, most owners just care about K-Rod's saves, so the 62 saves counteract any difference in ERA, WHIP or even strikeouts in the minds of many owners. Still, Rivera going 39 of 40 in saves with a 1.40 ERA and 0.67 WHIP is nothing to sneeze at, and those stats would've been even better had he not been called in to pitch in so many non-save situations.

Most one-dimensional speedster: Willy Taveras, OF, Rockies: Stolen base totals can cause huge swings in the Player Rater. In the case of guys like Jose Reyes, Grady Sizemore and Hanley Ramirez, it helps accentuate guys who are already valuable. But in the case of Taveras and his league-leading 68 steals, it makes a seemingly mediocre "real" player a fantasy star. Taveras has an overall Player Rater ranking of 6.87, but 7.74 of that comes from his steals. That means his numbers in the other four categories combined are actually a detriment to your fantasy team. Others who wouldn't have a positive Player Rater number if not for steals include Michael Bourn, Rajai Davis, Cesar Izturis, Joey Gathright and Luis Castillo. Oh yeah -- even with the steals factored in, Corey Patterson still had a negative Player Rater number for the year.

There's a strange dichotomy between the American and National League players from a fantasy perspective. Heading into this season, only two of the top 10 and three of the top 15 players in terms of ADP were AL players. Heck, seven of the top 10 in ADP were from the NL East.

Little has changed in the final numbers, with only five of the top 15 players in terms of ADP being from the AL. Only Alex Rodriguez was both in the top 15 in ADP and final-season Player Rater, although Grady Sizemore was 17th in ADP and 14th in the final Player Rater. The NL East didn't have the same stranglehold on the top 10 at the end of the season, but three Mets (Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Beltran) were in the top 15, and Hanley Ramirez was the No. 3 player overall.

With Reyes and Ramirez checking in at 2 and 3 overall behind Albert Pujols, plus Jimmy Rollins having a good but slightly down year for him, the National League dominates at the top of the shortstop position. Those three shortstops rank in the top 60 overall, while the top-rated AL shortstop, Derek Jeter, was just 103rd overall (and had a relatively disappointing season for him). However, after those top three, the NL shortstop talent levels drop off a lot, while the AL catches up with guys like Jhonny Peralta, Michael Young and shortstop-eligible Alexei Ramirez.

The one position where the AL has a decided edge over the NL is at relief pitcher. The top-five-rated closers are all in the American League: Rivera, Rodriguez, Joakim Soria, Jonathan Papelbon and Joe Nathan. The first NL closer on the Player Rater is Jose Valverde, who surprisingly led the league in saves for a second straight year, and Brad Lidge, who was lights-out.

James Quintong is an editor for ESPN Fantasy.