Sixty Feet, Six Inches: Five impending turnarounds
"The Matrix" sequels were disappointments. The first time I tasted Brussels sprouts was a disappointment. Don DeLillo's haughty mess "Cosmopolis" was a disappointment. Seeing Phil Collins live in concert when I was 13 wasn't a disappointment, but later finding out how terminally uncool that made me was. That "South Park" where they bash hybrid cars was a disappointment. Much as I love Uma Thurman, the film adaptation of "Even Cowgirls Get the Blues" was a disappointment. And not getting to see Matt Berry's face the moment Celtics crushed the Lakers was a disappointment.
And just a week shy of the halfway point of the 2008 baseball season, there have been many starting pitching disappointments. Shall I name a few? Roy Oswalt, Ian Snell, Rich Hill, Yovani Gallardo, Jeff Francis, Tom Gorzelanny, John Smoltz, Kelvim Escobar and Phil Hughes. For some of those names, the season's already done. For others, the chances for a full recovery are looking mighty slim. But I do think there's hope for a few of the first half's letdowns:

A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays: Burnett hasn't made friends in Toronto lately by openly discussing his desire to play for the Cubs, but frankly, if your league doesn't penalize for a league change, any such trade could only enhance Burnett's value, wins-wise. As things stand, he's lumbering along with a 4.90 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP, and the main culprit has been his control. In '07, Burnett walked 66 in 165 2/3 innings, while in '08, he's walked 47 in just 86 1/3. But his BABIP is .344 (career: .290) and his strand rate is 65.6 percent (career: 71.1 percent). We've also seen a relatively dramatic decrease in grounders (from 54.8 percent in '07 to 47.4 percent in '08), which corresponds to issues with his curveball. Burnett is still throwing 94 mph but hasn't had a great feel for the curve on a consistent basis. Luck should turn around, and if the Jays decide to dump the $24 million he's owed on the last two years of his deal, he could be in line to improve his six wins.

Clay Buchholz, Red Sox: The Sox are playing games this season. Josh Beckett could've gone on that season-opening trip to Japan. Daisuke Matsuzaka probably could've pitched through his "sore shoulder." And Buchholz almost certainly could've pitched through his "cracked fingernail." But the team learned a lesson when Beckett was fresh for the playoffs last year: A little missed time in the regular season can be a good thing. There's no question the team wanted Buchholz to work on locating his fastball, and even with Bartolo Colon headed to the DL, Buchholz is going to stay at Triple-A for the time being, allowing Justin Masterson to remain in the bigs. But make no mistake: Buchholz will be back in the second half. In his eight major-league starts before hitting the DL, his BABIP was .376, making him a unlucky rookie. He struck out 43 in 42 1/3 innings while walking 20, and when push comes to shove, I think you'll see Masterson in the bullpen and Buchholz back in the rotation.
Bronson Arroyo, Reds. How many times can this guy appear to save his season, only to submit another stinker? Arroyo posted a god-awful 6.97 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in April; since then, he's been at 4.75 and 1.47. Great? Definitely not. But despite getting roughed up again Wednesday, Arroyo is showing control that's roughly consistent with his past performance and his strikeouts are actually up. What's killed him is a second-worst in baseball .358 BABIP, compared to a .302 career average. Homers have been a bit more of a problem for him in '08 than usual (1.47 HR/9, compared to 1.20 last year), but his strikeout rate is up from 6.66 K/9 to 8.48. Hey, he's a heartburn special, but the supporting stats say Arroyo eventually should trend better the rest of the year.
Starter Rankings
When he's healthy, Rich Harden has been dominant. He has 26 K's in his past three starts (18 2/3 innings) . (The list captures value from this point to the end of the season.)
| 1. Johan Santana, Mets (1) |
| 2. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks (2) |
| 3. Cole Hamels, Phillies (3) |
| 4. Josh Beckett, Red Sox (4) |
| 5. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks (5) |
| 6. C.C. Sabathia, Indians (6) |
| 7. Jake Peavy, Padres (7) |
| 8. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays (8) |
| 9. Felix Hernandez, Mariners (12) |
| 10. Erik Bedard, Mariners (11) |
| 11. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs (9) |
| 12. Tim Lincecum, Giants (14) |
| 13. Aaron Harang, Reds (10) |
| 14. John Lackey, Angels (15) |
| 15. Scott Kazmir, Rays (16) |
| 16. Justin Verlander, Tigers (17) |
| 17. Javier Vazquez, White Sox (13) |
| 18. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox (21) |
| 19. James Shields, Rays (18) |
| 20. Tim Hudson, Braves (19) |
| 21. Ben Sheets, Brewers (22) |
| 22. Matt Cain, Giants (26) |
| 23. Roy Oswalt, Astros (20) |
| 24. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals (23) |
| 25. Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays (24) |
| 26. Cliff Lee, Indians (28) |
| 27. John Maine, Mets (29) |
| 28. Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays (30) |
| 29. Edinson Volquez, Reds (31) |
| 30. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers (34) |
| 31. Zack Greinke, Royals (25) |
| 32. Jered Weaver, Angels (32) |
| 33. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays (33) |
| 34. Ervin Santana, Angels (35) |
| 35. Ted Lilly, Cubs (36) |
| 36. Joba Chamberlain (38) |
| 37. Joe Saunders, Angels (39) |
| 38. Pedro Martinez, Mets (47) |
| 39. Rich Harden, A's (52) |
| 40. Greg Maddux, Padres (44) |
| 41. Derek Lowe, Dodgers (49) |
| 42. Fausto Carmona, Indians (40) |
| 43. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers (37) |
| 44. Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks (48) |
| 45. Brett Myers, Phillies (45) |
| 46. Chris Young, Padres (41) |
| 47. Brad Penny, Dodgers (42) |
| 48. Johnny Cueto, Reds (50) |
| 49. Oliver Perez, Mets (51) |
| 50. Joe Blanton, A's (43) |
| 51. Justin Duchscherer, A's (59) |
| 52. Andy Pettitte, Yankees (57) |
| 53. Jon Lester, Red Sox (NR) |
| 54. Randy Wolf, Padres (54) |
| 55. Jair Jurrjens, Braves (55) |
| 56. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles (NR) |
| 57. Francisco Liriano, Twins (58) |
| 58. John Danks, White Sox (NR) |
| 59. Aaron Cook, Rockies (60) |
| 60. Ryan Dempster, Cubs (NR) |
Francisco Liriano was terrific for Triple-A Rochester on Sunday, throwing 7 1/3 innings, striking out five and walking none. Because Nick Blackburn's pitching arm is sore, Liriano could get a call-up this weekend. Keep an eye on this situation. ... The Yankees signed Sidney Ponson to a minor-league deal on Wednesday, which shows just how far the team's starting-pitching fortunes have fallen. The team added Ponson to its 40-man roster, which indicates a willingness to bring him to the majors if and when Dan Giese falters. But even if he gets a call, he almost certainly won't be fantasy-relevant. If former first-rounder Daniel McCutchen ever got tabbed (he's 1-4 in five Triple-A starts, but threw a complete-game shutout last weekend), he'd be a little more interesting. ... The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Mark Mulder threw five scoreless innings for Double-A Springfield last weekend, and consistently hit 90 mph with his fastball. Since Mulder had recently complained of soreness in his surgically repaired shoulder, this is a surprisingly happy turn of events. The team will monitor his next several minor-league starts. Meanwhile, Chris Carpenter had to shut down his throwing sessions because of soreness in his reconstructed elbow, and while Dr. James Andrews pronounced the elbow structurally sound, this could put the kibosh on the idea of Carpenter as a viable fantasy factor in '08. ... Like Carpenter, Jason Schmidt had a setback in rehab and also looks less likely to contribute in '08. The Dodgers' official site reports that Schmidt will completely shut down his surgically repaired shoulder until he has no pain, which isn't currently the case. ... Josh Johnson, who's recovering from last year's Tommy John surgery, is throwing in the Marlins' minor-league system and is currently making starts for Class-A Greensboro. Johnson says he's pain-free and has decent velocity, so he could be back with the big club in August. Meanwhile, Chris Volstad returned to the organization's Double-A affiliate in Carolina after missing a couple weeks with a triceps strain. As did Ryan Tucker earlier this month, Volstad could get a big-league call-up by July.
Christopher Harris is a fantasy baseball, football and racing analyst for ESPN.com. He is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner. You can e-mail him here.
