Sixty Feet, Six Inches: AL rotations roundup
Last week, I gave an National League starting rotations State of the Union; this week, it's the American League's turn. Once again, I'm tasked with giving you one interesting rotation quandary per team, and I've ranked them, from most- to least-interesting. Here goes:
Detroit Tigers: Is Justin Verlander ever going to start acting like an ace? I was as big a Verlander advocate as there was in March, and while it's true his ERA has come down more than two full runs since May 8, he hasn't gone more than six innings in his past three starts and has exceeded seven innings just once since April 12. He's also walked 45 in 108 innings, a season after allowing 67 in 201 2/3, and his K/9 is down from 8.2 in '07 to 6.5 this year. Detroit is a hot team, so wins should be there, and Verlander insists he's healthy. I'm not completely sold on that, though.
Cleveland Indians: Can Cliff Lee keep it up? After back-to-back bad starts on May 30 and June 4 (each of which he won), Lee looked primed for a predictable fade. In five outings since, he hasn't allowed more than two runs. I continue to be baffled by how Lee has suddenly turned from an impresario of the fly ball to a master of the grounder, and I still wonder if he's going to turn into a pumpkin. But I have to say: I think I believe in his hot first half more than in Edinson Volquez's.
AL Top 60 Starting Pitchers
Joba Chamberlain has yet to go more than 6 2/3 innings, but his potential makes him a top-20 starter in the AL. (The list captures value from this point to the end of the season.)
|1. Josh Beckett, Red Sox|
|2. C.C. Sabathia, Indians|
|3. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays|
|4. John Lackey, Angels|
|5. Felix Hernandez, Mariners|
|6. Scott Kazmir, Rays|
|7. Erik Bedard, Mariners|
|8. Justin Verlander, Tigers|
|9. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox|
|10. James Shields, Rays|
|11. Javier Vazquez, White Sox|
|12. Cliff Lee, Indians|
|13. Zack Greinke, Royals|
|14. Ervin Santana, Angels|
|15. Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays|
|16. Jered Weaver, Angels|
|17. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays|
|18. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees|
|19. Joe Saunders, Angels|
|20. Rich Harden, A's|
|21. Justin Duchscherer, A's|
|22. Fausto Carmona, Indians|
|23. Jon Lester, Red Sox|
|24. John Danks, White Sox|
|25. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles|
|26. Andy Pettitte, Yankees|
|27. Matt Garza, Rays|
|28. Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays|
|29. Joe Blanton, A's|
|30. Gil Meche, Royals|
|31. Francisco Liriano, Twins|
|32. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox|
|33. Kevin Slowey, Twins|
|34. Scott Baker, Twins|
|35. Mark Buehrle, White Sox|
|36. Mike Mussina, Yankees|
|37. Bartolo Colon, Red Sox|
|38. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays|
|39. Gavin Floyd, White Sox|
|40. Daniel Cabrera, Orioles|
|41. Tim Wakefield, Red Sox|
|42. Jon Garland, Angels|
|43. Dana Eveland, A's|
|44. Kevin Millwood, Rangers|
|45. Brian Bannister, Royals|
|46. Jesse Litsch, Blue Jays|
|47. Armando Galarraga, Tigers|
|48. Justin Masterson, Red Sox|
|49. Aaron Laffey, Indians|
|50. Greg Smith, A's|
|51. Nick Blackburn, Twins|
|52. Kenny Rogers, Tigers|
|53. Edwin Jackson, Rays|
|54. Vicente Padilla, Rangers|
|55. Jose Contreras, White Sox|
|56. Glen Perkins, Twins|
|57. Eric Hurley, Rangers|
|58. David Price, Rays|
|59. Phil Hughes, Yankees|
|60. Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees|
Seattle Mariners: Will Erik Bedard get his act together, and will he do it in Seattle? By most accounts, Bedard has been moody and soft in his time in the Pacific Northwest, and like Harden, he'll be a free agent after next year. He'd make a sweet trade acquisition for a contender, but the Mariners have to worry about saving some face here, having dealt away a tremendous package to get Bedard from Baltimore this winter. Either way, considering how poorly his back has apparently felt over the past month, Bedard faces an uphill battle to come near his '08 expectations.
Minnesota Twins: What will become of Francisco Liriano in 2008? The Twins are a great story: second place in the AL Central despite dealing Johan Santana. But how bad do they look for forcing Liriano into the rotation to start the year? The organization clearly rushed its bonus-baby lefty, who's been extremely up-and-down at Triple-A since his demotion. His most recent outing was a great one, though, giving hope that he'll be back in July.
Boston Red Sox: Is Clay Buchholz on his way back to the majors? The Boston Globe reports that Buchholz could replace Justin Masterson in the Boston rotation as soon as this weekend, and since Bartolo Colon still has to perform a rehab assignment, he's unlikely to be a starting candidate for a few more weeks. Buchholz wasn't really "demoted," per se; the Red Sox said his fingernail was cracked, then used it as an excuse to give him a rest and work on his location in the minors.
Chicago White Sox: Who's more for real, John Danks or Gavin Floyd? Chicago has ridden these two young starters to first place in the AL Central. Floyd is 9-4 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP, while Danks is 5-4 with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. They're both essentially owned in all ESPN leagues, so you're not going to pick one up off the waiver wire, but should you sell high? My money is on Danks over Floyd for the second half, but Floyd has confounded my predictions to this point.
Kansas City Royals: Can Gil Meche get his fantasy ownership above 33 percent? Meche was a nice story in '07, parlaying his massive free-agent deal into a sub-4.00 ERA and some fantasy respect. Unfortunately, he subsequently squandered that pre-draft love with a 7.81 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in April. But while you weren't watching, Meche posted ERAs of 3.65 and 3.13, and WHIPs of 1.14 and 1.11, in May and June, respectively. He's also fanned 82 in 108 1/3 innings, but unfortunately was lit up on Wednesday night.
Tampa Bay Rays: Will David Price go from Rookie League ball to the majors in a season that began with him on the DL? The possibility of last year's first-overall pick making that big a jump seemed remote as recently as May, but Price is throwing well at Double-A. If Tampa is still in contention come August, Price might make a nice little addition. As a plethora of rookie starters not named Edinson Volquez have shown this year, fantasy stardom is tough to come by in your first season. But Price would be worth a shot in fantasy leagues if he comes to the bigs.
Toronto Blue Jays: Will A.J. Burnett get traded? He's been awesome in consecutive outings and he's got 108 strikeouts in 106 1/3 innings, but he's always one pitch away from the DL and failed to get out of the sixth inning in four of five starts before this recent nice stretch. I feel smart for naming Burnett one of my top-five turnaround candidates just a few weeks ago, but if I were the Jays, I'd get rid of this guy for a prospect fast. If he goes, John Parrish (who's up right now for Shaun Marcum) could stay in the Toronto rotation.
Baltimore Orioles: Can Jeremy Guthrie keep it up? Viewed as somewhat of a fluke last year, Guthrie has been just about as good in '08, posting a 3.50 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. His strikeout rate is lower and his walk rate is higher, plus he hasn't been as dominating as he was in the first half of '07 (remember that he really cooled off toward the end of last year). However, six years after being selected in the first round, Guthrie is finally living up to his billing.
New York Yankees: Will the kids get healthy and be fantasy-relevant? With Chien-Ming Wang probably on the shelf for the rest of '08, the Yankees are going to need something from Ian Kennedy and/or Philip Hughes if they're going to make the playoffs. Kennedy has begun his minor league rehab stint, having thrown two outings at Class A, while Hughes is still at least a month away from beginning his program. New York could go trade for C.C. Sabathia, but that's looking less likely now.
Texas Rangers: Will Eric Hurley be a young Kevin Millwood? Baseball America likens Hurley to Millwood, and considering the original article is already pitching in Arlington, you'd think Hurley would have a nice pattern after which to model himself. The kid has been OK in his four career big league starts, and already warrants AL-only consideration. If he shows he can keep the ball down consistently and still get hitters to swing, I might talk him up to mixed-leaguers in a month.
Los Angeles Angels: Will all five starters get to 15 wins? This question was actually posed by my ESPN pal Nate Ravitz, and it's a pretty good one. The guy you'd think might be hardest-pressed would be John Lackey, who's got only six, primarily because he missed a month and a half. Joe Saunders already has 12 wins and Ervin Santana has nine, so they seem like good bets. Jered Weaver and Jon Garland each have seven -- and sorry, Nate, Garland is where I draw the line.
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Francisco Liriano had been mediocre in two straight Triple-A outings, allowing nine hits in each. But his last time out Monday for Rochester, he struck out nine, allowed four hits and one walk, and made it through seven innings. A couple more in a row like this and the Twins might finally get around to using him on the big club again. The Rays are having a storybook big league season, but unfortunately, one of their best prospects, Jake McGee, will have to have Tommy John surgery next week. McGee and Wade Davis have been known as a pair since they were drafted in the fifth and third rounds, respectively, in 2004. Davis will now assuredly move ahead on prospect lists, alongside David Price and Jeremy Hellickson. Josh Johnson has shown decent control through four minor league rehab starts, walking three while striking out 16. While he's been hittable at Double-A Carolina (.354 BAA in two starts), the Marlins seem close to pulling to trigger on bringing Johnson back to the majors, according to the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. He'll pitch again in the minors Friday, and if it goes well, the Marlins might bring him up thereafter. But because he's returning from Tommy John surgery, I have to admit I'm skeptical he's going to be worth owning in fantasy leagues. Rich Hill had another disastrous outing Tuesday, pitching for the Cubs' Rookie League team. He walked three and hit a batter while recording just one out. About a month ago, I wrote that I wasn't ready to give up on Hill. Well, I'm ready now. Forget about him for this year; simply hope the kid can get over this massive case of the yips by '09.
Christopher Harris is a fantasy baseball, football and racing analyst for ESPN.com. He is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner across all three of those sports. You can e-mail him here.
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