Sixty Feet, Six Inches: Who's next up?
It's the starting pitching question I get asked most in fantasy chats at this time of year:
"Does Zack Greinke have compromising pictures of you?"
But that's neither here nor there. The second-most frequently asked question in fantasy chats at this time of year is:
"Which starters still in the minors will make a fantasy impact before the end of the '08 season?"
There's no definite answer to this one. Teams will weigh several factors when deciding whether to bring up their young pitchers, and no teams are going to tip their hands while the calendar still says July. Still, it pays to have your finger on the pulse of what's left in the bush leagues, so you'll be ready to pounce if and when the following guys get the call, whether it's for a few spot starts, bullpen work or a full-fledged spot in a big league rotation.
Francisco Liriano, Twins: He shouldn't be on this list, since he's still owned in 70 percent of ESPN.com leagues, but if he's available in yours, go get him. Tuesday night he pitched seven scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts for Triple-A Rochester; in his past five starts, his ERA is 0.26 and he's fanned 42 and walked four in 35 innings. The Twins continue to be in the thick of the AL Central, but they nonetheless are sticking with Livan Hernandez. Unless the team is dead set on not using any more of Liriano's service time (Liriano's agent has reportedly filed a grievance), expect to see this lefty in the bigs, and soon.
David Price, Rays: Price went six innings for Double-A Montgomery on Wednesday, allowing three runs on seven hits and two walks (one intentional) while fanning six. Last year's No. 1 overall pick has appeared in only 12 minor league games and pitched 71 2/3 minor league innings in his career, but there's every reason to believe that the Rays will call him up in September, if not sooner. He'd be no guarantee for success -- no one on this list would be -- but you'd want to add him in all leagues just in case.
Gio Gonzalez, Athletics: Gonzalez and his major league-ready curveball have been traded three times without pitching in a big league game, and his results at Triple-A Sacramento have been mixed. But he's been stronger lately (he'd allowed just three runs and fanned 34 in his most recent 28 1/3 innings before having his start Tuesday rained out after one inning), and speculation after Joe Blanton left Oaktown was that Gonzalez would be his rotation replacement. That turned out not so: Dallas Braden got the call. But this lefty strikeout artist figures to get a look.
Max Scherzer, Diamondbacks: Yeah, him again. I tried to tell you not to go hog-wild after Scherzer made his scintillating debut in April and May, but many folks didn't listen (and didn't learn their lesson when Clayton Kershaw came up, either) and blew their No. 1 waiver pick on the young Arizona righty. Scherzer got demoted, had a "fatigued shoulder" at Triple-A and has been off fantasy radar screens. But now he's back -- he threw one-third of an inning in the minors Sunday -- and is still a good bet to join the big club later this year. The Diamondbacks could have a rotation spot available if Micah Owings continues to struggle or Randy Johnson gets hurt.
Carlos Rosa, Royals: Rosa got a cup of coffee with the big team in June, making two relief appearances before getting sent back to Triple-A Omaha. He throws hard, is a Tommy John survivor and has looked good in three of four starts since his demotion. There's no reason for Kansas City to mess around with this guy as a reliever, because it's going hurt him. If he comes back as a starter, he might be worth a look in AL-only leagues.
Ian Kennedy, Yankees: I'm absolutely not sold on Kennedy as a long-term prospect. Outside of a nice changeup, Kennedy just doesn't have any above-average pitches, and has to be perfect with his control to be effective. He's a No. 4 starter, and I think the Yankees are deluding themselves if they think he's more than that. Regardless, though, Kennedy is back in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Triple-A rotation, and as he's pitched more, he's gotten sharper. He's scheduled to throw tonight, and given the problems that loom at the back end of the New York rotation, I won't be surprised to see him back up. I just don't expect that much.
David Huff, Indians: Huff, an '06 first-rounder, is another relatively soft-tossing lefty with a skill set much like Aaron Laffey and Jeremy Sowers. Huff has 50 strikeouts and five walks since getting promoted to Triple-A Buffalo, and the Tribe have nothing to lose by giving him a shot, though I wouldn't expect better results than Laffey and Sowers have had lately.
Daryl Thompson, Reds: I'd have Thompson higher here, but he just went on the Triple-A DL with a strained shoulder. The Reds don't seem to think it's serious, but he's shelved for the moment. He made a three-start cameo in Cincinnati earlier this year and remains on track to get a shot to make the Reds' rotation next year. If he's healthy and shows he's strong again at Triple-A Louisville, his next chance could come sooner than that.
Top 60 Starting Pitchers
Jon Lester makes a big jump -- 13 spots, in fact -- to make the Top 25. Lester has allowed three earned runs or less in 13 of his past 15 starts.
(This list is meant to capture value from this point to the end of the season.)
| 1. Johan Santana, Mets (1) |
| 2. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks (2) | 3. Cole Hamels, Phillies (3) |
| 4. Jake Peavy, Padres (4) | 5. CC Sabathia, Brewers (6) |
| 6. Josh Beckett, Red Sox (5) | 7. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks (7) |
| 8. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays (8) | 9. John Lackey, Angels (9) |
| 10. Tim Lincecum, Giants (10) | 11. Felix Hernandez, Mariners (11) |
| 12. Scott Kazmir, Rays (12) | 13. Justin Verlander, Tigers (15) |
| 14. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs (13) | 15. Ben Sheets, Brewers (16) |
| 16. James Shields, Rays (19) | 17. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox (18) |
| 18. Edinson Volquez, Reds (20) | 19. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers (21) |
| 20. Cliff Lee, Indians (22) | 21. Matt Cain, Giants (23) |
| 22. Javier Vazquez, White Sox (25) | 23. Ervin Santana, Angels (27) |
| 24. Jon Lester, Red Sox (37) | 25. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees (29) |
| 26. Tim Hudson, Braves (14) | 27. Rich Harden, Cubs (31) |
| 28. Fausto Carmona, Indians (36) | 29. John Maine, Mets (24) |
| 30. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays (33) | 31. Zack Greinke, Royals (26) |
| 32. Joe Saunders, Angels (30) | 33. Justin Duchscherer, A's (34) |
| 34. Ted Lilly, Cubs (35) | 35. Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks (38) |
| 36. John Danks, White Sox (39) | 37. Ryan Dempster, Cubs (42) |
| 38. Jered Weaver, Angels (28) | 39. Erik Bedard, Mariners (17) |
| 40. Andy Pettitte, Yankees (45) | 41. Matt Garza, Rays (46) |
| 42. Derek Lowe, Dodgers (41) | 43. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles (40) |
| 44. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants (43) | 45. Roy Oswalt, Astros (32) |
| 46. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals (48) | 47. Mike Mussina, Yankees (NR) |
| 48. Gil Meche, Royals (51) | 49. Mark Buehrle, White Sox (NR) |
| 50. Chris Young, Padres (50) | 51. Scott Baker, Twins (60) |
| 52. Francisco Liriano, Twins (56) | 53. Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays (49) |
| 54. Jair Jurrjens, Braves (55) | 55. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox (52) |
| 56. Brett Myers, Phillies (53) | 57. Kevin Slowey, Twins (57) |
| 58. Aaron Cook, Rockies (58) | 59. Bronson Arroyo, Reds (NR) |
| 60. Manny Parra, Brewers (NR) |
Jeff Francis continues to rehab a sore right shoulder. He went 3 2/3 innings in his first start for Double-A Tulsa and will go again this Saturday. The Rockies will reassess him after that. White Sox prospect Jack Egbert walked no one, struck out five and allowed two runs in six innings Tuesday for Triple-A Charlotte. Egbert had a rough start to '08 but has turned around the past month. He was considered a better bet than Clayton Richard to get a promotion this year, but Richard has bypassed him in the White Sox hierarchy. The Blue Jays are sending Jesse Litsch to Triple-A and bringing up David Purcey again. Purcey was awful in two big league starts early this year, but has struck out 121 hitters in 117 innings for Triple-A Syracuse this season. Jonathan Meloan fanned seven in six innings for Triple-A Las Vegas Sunday, allowing just one run. Meloan was viewed as a possible big league reliever in '08, but when he didn't make the Dodgers, he went back to being a starter in the minors. Unfortunately, he's walked 60 in 105 innings, which means he's still got work to do. Phillies GM Pat Gillick told the Philadelphia Inquirer he's not planning on having Kris Benson pitch in the majors this year. Benson currently has an 8.53 ERA in four Triple-A starts. Bruce Billings, who's pitching for Class A Asheville in the Colorado organization, threw a no-hitter Wednesday night. Billings isn't currently considered a top-notch prospect, but hey, give the kid a little love.
Christopher Harris is a fantasy baseball, football and racing analyst for ESPN.com. He is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner. You can e-mail him here.
