September 4, 2008, 4:00 PM

Sixty Feet, Six Inches: The top spot-start pitchers

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Grey By Jason Grey
ESPN.com
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What have you done for me lately?

No doubt, owners of John Danks and Joe Saunders, among other starting pitchers, are asking themselves that these days. As fantasy playoffs come around, or as your league enters the home stretch with the title to be decided by perhaps a point or two, to have players that you have relied on all season suddenly going south can be quite frustrating.

Despite some decent outings in August, Danks' second-half splits have seen his ERA double, with a 5.22 ERA in nine starts since the All-Star break, compared with a 2.67 mark before. Meanwhile, Saunders has followed up his 3.07 ERA in the first half with a 5.19 ERA since the All-Star Game.

But what about the pitchers who are finishing well?

Sure, it's easy to praise guys like CC Sabathia and Cole Hamels, but it's not like they are readily available in fantasy leagues.

Let's take a look at some relatively overlooked starters who are finishing strong and might have use as spot starters down the stretch, especially in deeper leagues. These guys also are setting themselves up for potential bigger and better things in '09. For the most part, with a couple of exceptions, we're talking about dark horses, if you don't mind the risk factor and you need to take a chance in an attempt to catch lightning in a bottle.

This is not an exhaustive list, just a couple of names to monitor, to see if their matchups look favorable for potential streaming purposes in your pennant run, or to tuck away in the back of your mind for next season.

(Note: I know there are a ton more reliable, useful indicators than ERA, but it works in this context for illustrative purposes.)

Anthony Reyes, Indians: Reyes, once a highly regarded prospect, desperately needed a change of scenery after things never really clicked with the coaching staff or on the field in St. Louis. Scooped up from the bargain bin, Reyes has posted a 2.01 ERA in his first five starts with the Tribe. His strikeout rate of fewer than five batters per nine innings is a little disconcerting, but it's partially because he has learned to be a little more aggressive and unafraid to pitch to contact, and there's still some upside there. His curveball has better depth than in recent seasons, and he's commanding the ball to all four quadrants of the strike zone. So he's definitely getting closer to fulfilling his potential, and remember, many scouts rated him higher than Adam Wainwright when they were both in the Cardinals' system.

Top 60 Starting Pitchers

It sure is good to see Francisco Liriano back in the top 15, isn't it? It seems he has his Cy Young-like form back..

1. CC Sabathia, Brewers (2)
2. Cliff Lee, Indians (12)
3. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays (4)
4. Tim Lincecum, Giants (8)
5. Cole Hamels, Phillies (7)
6. Johan Santana, Mets (1)
7. Jake Peavy, Padres (5)
8. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks (3)
9. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks (6)
10. Ervin Santana, Angels (21)
11. Ryan Dempster, Cubs (28)
12. Ben Sheets, Brewers (13)
13. John Lackey, Angels (9)
14. Francisco Liriano, Twins (22)
15. Felix Hernandez, Mariners (11)
16. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins (45)
17. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers (10)
18. James Shields, Rays (18)
19. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox (23)
20. Derek Lowe, Dodgers (32)
21. Jon Lester, Red Sox (17)
22. Scott Kazmir, Rays (20)
23. Josh Johnson, Marlins (55)
24. Kevin Slowey, Twins (48)
25. Rich Harden*, Cubs (14)
26. Roy Oswalt, Astros (40)
27. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays (24)
28. Ted Lilly, Cubs (31)
29. Zack Greinke, Royals (30)
30. Gavin Floyd, White Sox (60)
31. Matt Garza, Rays (41)
32. Gil Meche, Royals (39)
33. Matt Cain, Giants (19)
34. Josh Beckett*, Red Sox (16)
35. Brett Myers, Phillies (29)
36. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals (35)
37. Armando Galarraga, Tigers (NR)
38. Mike Mussina, Yankees (38)
39. John Danks, White Sox (37)
40. Edinson Volquez, Reds (27)
41. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals (NR)
42. Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks (34)
43. Javier Vazquez, White Sox (25)
44. Dave Bush, Brewers (52)
45. Jair Jurrjens, Braves (50)
46. Scott Baker, Twins (51)
47. Tim Wakefield, Red Sox (NR)
48. Jeremy Guthrie*, Orioles (33)
49. Mike Pelfrey, Mets (47)
50. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros (NR)
51. Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals (NR)
52. Oliver Perez, Mets (42)
53. Joe Saunders, Angels (46)
54. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers (NR)
55. Jered Weaver*, Angels (36)
56. Andy Pettitte, Yankees (43)
57. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (56)
58. Carlos Zambrano*, Cubs (15)
59. Jorge Campillo, Braves (NR)
60. Aaron Cook, Rockies (NR)
Chris Volstad, Marlins: Last year, Ubaldo Jimenez came up late in the season and posted a 4.28 ERA and 68 strikeouts in 82 innings. Volstad is filling that quiet-contribution role in the second half this season, with a 3.32 ERA in 11 games since being promoted. The 21-year-old has taken off since switching to a spike curveball grip last season, and he keeps the ball down in the strike zone thanks to the down-plane angle that his 6-foot-7 frame generates for his fastball. The result is a ton of grounders. He's still walking a few too many batters, but keeping the ball in the ballpark and commanding two quality pitches is working out well thus far.

Dana Eveland, Athletics: Thanks to a change in his windup and a couple of other slight mechanical modifications in a three-start stint at Triple-A, Eveland appears to have regained the command on his secondary pitches that he displayed earlier in the season, and he is back to throwing strikes. He always has had a quality four-pitch repertoire; it just has been about finding consistency. He can provide a few more solid starts down the stretch.

Brandon McCarthy, Rangers: Feeling lucky? McCarthy has looked solid in three starts since returning from a season-long elbow injury. I'm still skeptical about his ability to throw strikes consistently, but he's just 25, still improving and is healthy for the first time in two seasons.

Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals: He has saved his best pitching for the second half, posting a 3.23 ERA in nine starts. Every so often, he'll still have a game in which his control gets away from him, but working every fifth day clearly agrees with him and allows him to repeat his delivery more consistently. He has cut his walk rate in half since his bullpen days, and that was the main thing holding him back.

Zach Miner, Tigers: Since moving to the rotation, he has a 3.26 ERA in nine starts, and like Wellemeyer, he appears to be able to find the strike zone more consistently when he gets into a five-day routine. He has been quietly effective, with really only one outing you'd classify as a clunker.

Dustin Nippert, Rangers: Seriously, Jason? Hey, crazier things have happened. Many scouts fell in love with his tall frame and mid-90s heater when he was a prospect in the Diamondbacks' organization, but he has had some serious injuries in the past and has been bounced between starting and relieving so many times that it was somewhat hard for him to get in a rhythm. He's still a work in progress, but he shut out the Mariners (and Felix Hernandez) over seven innings in a 1-0 game Wednesday and struck out seven through five shutout innings in his previous start before tiring in the sixth. A new grip on his changeup has given him a usable second pitch, although he still lacks a consistent breaking ball. He's not for the faint of heart, but he's definitely a name to put on the list as a deep sleeper for next season if he has a rotation job. His rotation spot is tenuous right now with Vicente Padilla close to returning.

Ryan Rowland-Smith, Mariners: He has a 3.86 ERA in seven starts since moving to the rotation, but those numbers are inflated by a couple of rough outings in which he was still trying to build stamina after being a reliever. That said, even when he does have a poor outing, it likely won't be a huge blowup, which makes him a safer play than some of the other names on this list. The Australian lefty has shown an improved changeup this season, which has helped him control right-handed hitters, who have hit just .221 off him.

Comings and goings

Carlos Zambrano is expected to undergo an MRI after having his sore arm examined Wednesday. There's no prognosis or timetable until those results come in. Sean Marshall will temporarily replace him in the rotation. … Hamels will get an extra start this week; he will be moved up to face the Mets on Sunday on normal rest. His stats on normal rest are better than his numbers with the extra day this season. … Rich Harden says he feels fine, and the discomfort that caused him to miss a turn is a nonissue. He's still scheduled to make his next turn in the rotation Sept. 9. … Vicente Padilla will throw a bullpen session on Friday and hopes to return to the rotation Wednesday. … Shaun Marcum returns to the Blue Jays' rotation Saturday, replacing John Parrish, and will try to show he's past his elbow issues. … Brandon Morrow makes his debut in the Mariners' rotation Friday against the Yankees, and he'll stay there for the balance of the season, bumping either Carlos Silva or Ryan Feierabend after the team gets through its off days. … Johnny Cueto will return to the Reds' rotation Saturday. … Shawn Estes gets a start Thursday for the Padres, as the club will go to a six-man rotation for at least one turn with prospect Wade LeBlanc now in the mix. … Justin Duchscherer is expected to start one of the games of the A's doubleheader Saturday. Duchscherer got an injection in his hip this week as he tries to gut the rest of the season out, but he's still not at 100 percent and is a risky play even given his production this year. … The Blue Jays might ask Scott Downs to convert to being a starter for next season.

On the Farm

[+] EnlargeDavid Price
AP Photo/Al BehrmanPrice is hoping to make a big impact on Tampa in September.
The reason David Price has not made his big league debut yet is because his Triple-A team in Durham is in the playoffs. Price got the start in Game 1 of the playoffs Wednesday night and worked five shutout innings, striking out six, before being lifted after 92 pitches. Price will join the big club after the playoffs are over -- as late as Sept. 15 if Durham goes all the way -- but it's likely going to be in a bullpen role.

Another top prospect worth watching was also on the mound as his Double-A club opened up its playoff series. Rangers southpaw Derek Holland has had an extraordinary season, rocketing through three levels of the minors and striking out 157 in 150 innings of work, while allowing just three homers. The 22-year-old pushed his velocity into the mid-90s at times this season. On Wednesday, he allowed one run on two hits in 7 1/3 innings to pick up the win. He's not going to be up this year, but he's a name you definitely must be aware of because he's moving fast.

Jason Grey is a graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and has won two Tout Wars titles, one LABR title and numerous other national "experts" competitions.