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September 11, 2008, 5:11 PM

Sixty Feet, Six Inches: Who will rebound in 2009?

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By Jason Grey
ESPN.com
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"That's the problem with planning for the future: By the time it gets here, you've already missed the boat. Me? I'm building an ark on the sunniest day of the year, and charging mad admission the second it rains." -- post by member "RagingBull" on an investing forum

I've always loved that quote, and even though it's talking about the financial markets, I have found it quite applicable in fantasy play. It's about thinking and planning ahead, being one step in front of everyone else.

In that vein, this week we'll take a look at five pitchers that I like as rebound plays for next season. While everyone is off the bandwagon, I'll be ready to jump on at a reduced price.

[+] Enlarge

AP Photo/Pat SullivanAaron Harang hasn't been as dominant this year, but look out for him in 2009.

Aaron Harang, Reds: For the first part of the season, Harang wasn't that different a pitcher from 2007, but his base numbers didn't necessarily reflect that. His peripheral numbers were all pretty much in line, and a lot of his issues could have been traced simply to poor luck and some statistical fluctuation.

However, at the end of May, Harang was called upon to pitch four innings of relief in an 18-inning game, throwing 63 pitches. Remarkably, he was called up to start on just three days' rest immediately after that. It certainly wasn't a helpful factor in keeping him off the shelf with a forearm problem a month later. He then probably tried to come back from that issue too soon, and he also battled a stiff neck in August. In sum, it's been a lost year for him in many ways, but a healthier Harang has thrown four straight quality starts, and I think he's going to be back to what we expect in 2009.

Ian Snell, Pirates: Snell eventually hit the disabled list with an elbow problem, but I'd be willing to bet it was an issue long before that, even if it wasn't serious enough to prevent him from pitching. He's also been battling some back problems this season, so like Harang, I think a good portion of his problems can be attributed to health-related issues.

His velocity is back to where it was last year, his slider has shown flashes of its old form recently, his strikeout rate is still solid and he's been victimized by a extraordinarily high .387 average on balls in play, which has inflated his numbers. Granted, he's also walking almost two batters per game more than last season, but I still see that as something that is going to correct itself a bit next season given a bit more health, as the elbow and back issues have affected the consistency of his release point. There have been some positive signs in the past month that he's starting to find himself again, with five quality starts in his last six trips to the mound.

Bronson Arroyo, Reds: He's quietly been a solid pitcher since the All-Star Game, but his first-half numbers were so bad it's kind of gotten lost in the overall picture. His post-break numbers in 11 starts include a 2.84 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a sharp drop in his homer rate, as his homers per flyball have normalized somewhat. He's even quietly accumulated 14 wins. Some slight mechanical changes have allowed him to get more on top of his secondary stuff, and using his slider more and curveball less have helped him get back on track with his five-pitch mix.

Still, most people look and see a 4.65 ERA and some of the outings where he got absolutely torched in the first half -- almost single-handedly killing your pitching staff for the week -- and steer clear. I'm going to be back on board for next season.

Justin Verlander, Tigers: Sometimes you just need the season to end, to clear your head, rest, hit the reset button and be ready to come back full-bore the following season. Verlander has been battling mechanical issues all year, and just when it seems like he's turned a corner, they crop up again. He's struggled at various times with his front-side flying open, not getting on top of the ball, not using his lower half enough in his delivery and finding a consistent release point, and it's led to problems with both command and control. He's healthy, and when his mechanics are in order, his velocity has been fine. I'm ready to buy at a discount for 2009.

Johnny Cueto, Reds: What's this? Practically an all-Reds list? Yep. A phrase I use a lot is that consistency can be taught, talent can't, and that's what has plagued Cueto this year -- a lack of consistency. Just like Snell made a big leap forward in his second year of being a full-time starter, I expect Cueto to have similar results next season. His stuff is too good not to be doing better. I'd like to see him rely less on his fastball and work in his changeup a bit more, which I think will help him keep the ball in the park a bit better, which has really been his Achilles' heel this season. I'm focused less on the 4.77 ERA and more on the 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings.

I have no faith in Dusty Baker's ability to manage a pitching staff -- or any other parts of a big league team, for that matter -- so that is a compensating factor, but I still think there's going to be some good price-versus-performance value in the Reds' staff next year.

The big news is the returns of Rich Harden and Carlos Zambrano to the Cubs' rotation. I'm still skeptical Zambrano is going to pitch well considering his recent outings and the nature of his injury, but you never know. … After a good big league debut, Alfredo Aceves remains in the Yankees' rotation in place of Darrell Rasner, and the Mexican League veteran is not your typical rookie and could be worthy of spot play in a two-start week. … Brad Hennessey has replaced Kevin Correia in the Giants' starting five, but he's not fantasy-worthy. … Max Scherzer replaces Yusmeiro Petit in the D-backs' rotation with Randy Johnson back after skipping a turn, a move that has been expected ever since Scherzer was called back up. … Shairon Martis will finish the year in the Nationals' rotation. He'll be a 2009 sleeper in deep NL-only play. … The Indians will give Bryan Bullington at least one spot start, but he should be avoided.

With the exception of players that are called up to make emergency starts, like Scott Lewis was to replace Anthony Reyes, any pitcher that is going to make a rotation impact in the last couple of weeks of the season is likely already in the big leagues. As mentioned previously in this space, when Triple-A Durham's playoffs are over, David Price will be called up to be a piece in the bullpen, and not a starter.

Speaking of Lewis, he's always been an intriguing prospect that hasn't been able to stay healthy. He's had Tommy John surgery, other elbow issues, and missed a good chunk of this season with shoulder problems. That's why you haven't heard much about him from a prospect standpoint, as he's either been hurt or on limited pitch counts. He may not be just a one-start wonder if he can stay out of the trainer's room, and is a name to monitor for next season as we see how the Indians' future rotation shakes out.

When ranking pitchers for the final couple of weeks (and this is the last ranking for 2008; next week I'll do the first round of pitcher rankings for 2009), we have to try to balance the track record for the season with who has been hot recently, trying to catch some lightning in a bottle.

For example, over the past 30 days, which equates to five or six starts apiece, if you look at the leaders in ERA, which is not the most accurate measure, but good enough to illustrate the point, the following names will appear in the top 50 (with rank in parentheses):

Zack Greinke (6)
Bronson Arroyo (12)
Jeff Francis (21)
Jorge De La Rosa (22)
Dallas Braden (23)
Jason Marquis (30)
Braden Looper (38)
David Purcey (39)
Ryan Rowland-Smith (40)
Randy Wolf (49)
Zach Duke (50)

By the way, the top three on that list are Derek Lowe, Francisco Liriano and Jesse Litsch. I've worked some of the "hot hands" a little more into the list and given them a little more weight this week.

Jason Grey is a graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and has won two Tout Wars titles, one LABR title and numerous other national "experts" competitions.