Sixty Feet, Six Inches: You don't mess with the Johan
So fickle, the fantasy guru. So treacherous. So disloyal. Have we forgotten the wonder of Johan Santana?
Apparently we have, because in our collective group rankings, we somehow elevated Brandon Webb above Santana. Webb finished with an average rating (among all major league players) of 14.7. Santana finished at 16.0. They're still one-two in our communal estimation. But I believe we placed them in the wrong order.
Has Webb been better than Santana so far in '08? Yes. Ten wins will do that, as will an ERA of 2.69, a WHIP of 1.05 and a 72/20 K/BB ratio in 83 2/3 innings. Santana, by contrast, stands at 7-3 with a 3.20 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP and a 71/20 K/BB ratio in 81 2/3 innings. Sure enough, Webb is (only slightly) better. But considering everything we know about Santana's typically slow starts, we should be throwing him a freaking parade for his first two months. Check this out:
|Santana: Career Monthly Stats|
When I ranked Santana sixth overall among all major league players, I actually felt guilty -- as if I were underrating him -- because I knew his best of '08 probably was yet to come. It turns out I put him higher than everyone else did. The notion that Santana's very good performance so far this year is a harbinger of non-Cy Young performance during the season's final four months is, according to the above chart, laughable.
Yes, I'm aware Santana faded down the stretch in '07, posting a 4.94 ERA in five (meaningless) September starts. But I'm sorry, I've watched this cat be too good for too many second halves in his Hall of Fame-worthy career to get freaked out by a few shaky April outings. He's still the best starting pitcher in fantasy baseball.
Other interesting differences between me and the rest of the herd:
• I currently have C.C. Sabathia sixth among starters; the group has him 11th. Take away his rancid first four starts, and the dude has a 2.00 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP to go with 60 K in 58 1/3 IP. To leave him outside the top 10 is folly.
• I realize Edinson Volquez leads the world in strikeouts, but I refuse to rank him as a reward for two good months. As I mentioned in this week's Big Rotowski, Volquez has an unsustainable 87 percent strand rate this year, and his BB/9 (4.76) is too high. He also typically allows fly balls at a higher rate than he's done this year (31.6 percent), and in Cincinnati, fly balls can be deadly. I rank Volquez 33rd; the gang likes him 21st-best.
• I don't think Hiroki Kuroda is the greatest thing since sliced bread, but to rate him 58th among starters, as the group has done, is to imply he's on the border of not being a fantasy contributor, and I think that's wrong. (I have him 39th.) Though he's not an elite strikeout pitcher, it doesn't mean he doesn't throw hard; Kuroda makes do with a low-90s sinking fastball and good movement on his slider and splitter. As such, he induces grounders on nearly 45 percent of batted balls. He'll struggle occasionally -- as he did on national TV against the Mets on Sunday -- when his control isn't on, and it's possible he'll fade late because of the longer American season. But there's no way I'd rate rotation-mate Clayton Kershaw ahead of him right now.
• Rich Harden can be great, which is why I have him 52nd. But he's also about the worst bet in the bigs to stay healthy, which is why I think it's silly the group rated him 36th.
• Heck, if you'd rank Harden 36th, why would you put Bartolo Colon 85th? It seems to me that the primary problem with both guys is health. When he's on, Colon will throw hard, work both sides of the plate and be pretty effective. He showed that in '07 when he came off the DL; he dominated with the Angels for four of five starts until his arm started hurting again. But Colon's a bad bet to make it through the season, which is why I've ranked him below Harden, at 57th. But as long as he's doing well, I think he should be used in most fantasy leagues.
• Maybe he's just a case of "out of sight, out of mind," but Francisco Liriano fell to 79th in the June group rankings, while I have him 59th. After initially struggling at Triple-A Rochester, Liriano has been better in four of his past five outings. On Saturday he pitched 6 1/3 innings, fanned seven, walked one, gave up three hits and allowed just one run. Will he be his '06 self this season? Maybe not. But will he be with the big club by July? I believe so.
Joba Chamberlain is the highest-ranking debuting pitcher on this week's rankings, a list that's meant to capture value from this point to the end of the season, with last week's ranking in parentheses.
|1. Johan Santana, Mets (1)|
|2. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks (2)|
|3. Cole Hamels, Phillies (3)|
|4. Josh Beckett, Red Sox (4)|
|5. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks (5)|
|6. C.C. Sabathia, Indians (7)|
|7. Jake Peavy, Padres (8)|
|8. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays (12)|
|9. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs (10)|
|10. Aaron Harang, Reds (6)|
|11. Erik Bedard, Mariners (9)|
|12. Felix Hernandez, Mariners (11)|
|13. Javier Vazquez, White Sox (13)|
|14. Tim Lincecum, Giants (16)|
|15. Scott Kazmir, Rays (17)|
|16. James Shields, Rays (14)|
|17. John Lackey, Angels (18)|
|18. Tim Hudson, Braves (21)|
|19. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals (22)|
|20. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox (20)|
|21. Ben Sheets, Brewers (23)|
|22. Justin Verlander, Tigers (15)|
|23. Roy Oswalt, Astros (24)|
|24. Zack Greinke, Royals (25)|
|25. Matt Cain, Giants (26)|
|26. Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays (28)|
|27. Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees (29)|
|28. Cliff Lee, Indians (27)|
|29. John Maine, Mets (30)|
|30. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays (31)|
|31. Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays (32)|
|32. Jered Weaver, Angels (33)|
|33. Edinson Volquez, Reds (38)|
|34. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers (35)|
|35. Ervin Santana, Angels (42)|
|36. Ted Lilly, Cubs (34)|
|37. Joba Chamberlain (NR)|
|38. Joe Saunders, Angels (41)|
|39. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers (36)|
|40. Fausto Carmona, Indians (43)|
|41. Chris Young, Padres (19)|
|42. Brad Penny, Dodgers (37)|
|43. Joe Blanton, A's (39)|
|44. Micah Owings, Diamondbacks (40)|
|45. Greg Maddux, Padres (44)|
|46. Pedro Martinez, Mets (52)|
|47. Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks (49)|
|48. Brett Myers, Phillies (54)|
|49. Derek Lowe, Dodgers (45)|
|50. Johnny Cueto, Reds (47)|
|51. Oliver Perez, Mets (48)|
|52. Rich Harden, A's (50)|
|53. Ian Snell, Pirates (53)|
|54. Randy Wolf, Padres (55)|
|55. Jair Jurrjens, Braves (56)|
|56. Andy Pettitte, Yankees (60)|
|57. Bartolo Colon, Red Sox (NR)|
|58. John Danks, White Sox (NR)|
|59. Francisco Liriano, Twins (59)|
|60. Daniel Cabrera, Orioles (NR)|
Matt Clement began a rehab assignment in the Cardinals organization, throwing six stellar innings for Class A Palm Beach in which he allowed one hit and no walks and struck out five. He's still a long-shot fantasy bet even in NL-only leagues this year, but if Joel Pineiro can't get healthy and/or effective, there could be an opening in the St. Louis rotation. Rays prospect David Price went seven scoreless innings for Class A Vero Beach on Monday and hasn't allowed a run in three starts at that level. A promotion seems imminent. I mentioned Kris Benson's nice rehab start last week; unfortunately, the news isn't as good this week, as Benson had to be scratched from his most recent minor league start because of a sore biceps. The Phillies certainly won't be counting on him for '08. Rich Hill came off the minor league DL and went three innings on Friday, allowing three runs, three hits and three walks while striking out five for Triple-A Iowa. He's not close to returning to the majors yet. Lest we think the pitching prospect pipeline in Boston has finally emptied, Michael Bowden (who's still considered as good a prospect as Masterson) went 6 2/3 innings for Double-A Portland on Tuesday, striking out six, walking none and allowing three hits and one run, after being perfect for six innings. In his past eight starts for Portland, Bowden is 5-1 with a 1.09 ERA. Expect to see him at Triple-A Pawtucket soon.
Christopher Harris is a fantasy baseball, football and racing analyst for ESPN.com. He is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner across all three of those sports.
You can e-mail him here.
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