March 14, 2008, 11:41 AM

30 Questions: Will Brett Myers be successful as a starter?

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Karabell By Eric Karabell
ESPN.com
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Thirty teams, 30 burning fantasy questions. Throughout the preseason, we put one of these questions to an ESPN.com analyst for an in-depth look at the most interesting, perplexing or dumbfounding fantasy facet of each major league team.

Will Brett Myers be successful back in the Phillies' rotation?

Brad Lidge might start the 2008 season on the disabled list, Tom Gordon is 40 and his right shoulder is 80, and who knows how effective J.C. Romero and Ryan Madson will be setting up for those guys. It's pretty clear that, if Lidge's knee needs any more surgery, the Philadelphia Phillies could again have a considerable problem at the back end of their bullpen.

At least this season they won't have a problem at the front end of their rotation.

Sometimes fantasy owners have such a short memory they focus solely on the previous season. If a fantasy owner looks at 2007 and tries to figure out Brett Myers's puzzling campaign without knowing what actually happened, they'd be confused. Let's try to sort it out. He started Opening Day, then quickly -- and probably foolishly -- was forced to close, had an arm problem that caused him to miss two months, returned from that injury piled on the saves and was on the mound for the final out on the last Sunday of the season, as the Phillies improbably took the NL East. What a crazy ride!

Brett Myers' stats and projection

It's not often you see a team's Opening Day starter get moved to its closer role early in the season, but that's what Brett Myers did last season. Now he heads back to the rotation.

Year
IP
W-L
SV
K
ERA
WHIP
2005
215.1
13-8
0
208
3.72
1.21
2006
198.0
12-7
0
189
3.91
1.30
2007
68.2
5-7
21
83
4.33
1.28
2008 Proj.
207.0
13-9
0
206
3.91
1.28
The only part of that 2007 season likely to be duplicated this season is Myers' starting Opening Day. As a Phillies fan, I'd sure like to see him start and finish the NL East clincher, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. He can start that game, but expecting a complete game in late September? I'll settle for the 14 wins and 190 K's. What a relief that would be.

Myers isn't going to be the first Phillies pitcher to get selected in March drafts, but check out our projections and you'll notice we peg him to lead the staff in starts, innings and strikeouts. Nothing against wunderkind Cole Hamels, whom we all know and love, but clearly the ESPN.com fantasy staff believes in Myers as a reliable starting pitcher as well. So, do you agree?

In his preclosing days, Myers took that next step up into the pantheon of safe, innings-eaters who deliver close to 200 strikeouts and at least 12 wins. Myers sputtered in his formative seasons of 2003 and '04, but once he emerged as a staff leader, fantasy owners realized they could trust him. In 2005 and '06, Myers was close to a top-20 starting pitcher in fantasy. His two-year ERA was 3.81, he won 25 games, and he was No. 25 during that span in innings pitched. No, he won't be your fantasy staff ace, but he certainly could be a strong No. 3 starter. Don't be fooled by what happened in April 2007, when he struggled for a few starts, or the subsequent relief-coaster ride.

The concerns about ranking Myers as one of the top 30 starting pitchers (we have him at No. 25) are about his role and health, and I don't think either is terribly valid. Phillies manager Charlie Manuel doesn't admit it was a mistake to move Myers to closer, nor should he, mainly because he had two very good reasons for doing so. First of all, he didn't have many choices at the time. There was no Lidge in Philly then, Gordon was hurting, Madson was ineffective and Romero was hurling for the Red Sox. Secondly, the move worked; Myers saved 21 games and helped secure the bullpen, while Kyle Kendrick came up from Double-A to save the rotation. If the Phillies had missed the playoffs, Manuel's job might have been more than dangled in the wind, with the Myers decision being one skeptics recalled as the final straw. However, nobody's complaining now.

Myers got his saves, but now he's back to saving a rotation in need of stability -- a decision the Phillies made clear early in the offseason and plan to stick with. Worried about drafting Myers? He's scheduled to start Opening Day! Skeptics will say that he started the first game last year then endured the aforementioned tumult. But what are the chances of lightning striking twice? The Phillies clearly made a commitment to their bullpen by dealing for Lidge. Heading into the regular season, the Phillies again have problems at the back of the rotation. The situation is so unstable that the injury-riddled Kris Benson is being rushed back from rotator cuff surgery to rescue Adam Eaton, Travis Blackley and one of the Durbins (Chad, J.D., just pick one) as the fifth starter, and the entire crew is getting strafed this spring. This team can't afford to lose a safe 200-innings pitcher. Myers won't be closing again, not this season or likely ever again.

The other question is about Myers' health. Remember, he was previously a durable starting pitcher. So the Phillies believe the shoulder strain that cost Myers two months was a byproduct of changing roles and won't be a problem moving forward. Myers had to change his regimen from starting to relieving and was probably overused in May to start with, prompting the injury. Myers went from pitching every fifth day to warming up on an almost daily basis, pitching in back to back games and being asked to go two innings on a number of occasions. He wasn't used to it. Now he returns to a more familiar role, and fantasy owners have a safe starting pitcher to consider in Round 12 or so of a 10-team mixed league.

Yes, Phillies and fantasy fans, the Philadelphia bullpen might be a problem again, but don't fret, Myers won't be the solution.

Eric Karabell is a senior writer for ESPN.com fantasy. You can e-mail him here.