30 Questions: Can B.J. Ryan be a reliable closer?
Thirty teams, 30 burning fantasy questions. Throughout the preseason, we put one of these questions to an ESPN.com analyst for an in-depth look at the most interesting, perplexing or dumbfounding fantasy facet of each major league team.
To steal a ploy from "Whose Line Is It Anyway?" I answer that question with a question: What makes B.J. Ryan so different than all the other pitchers who have had Tommy John surgery?
A few years ago, I asked a source close to the Andrews Institute, where the famed Dr. James Andrews practices, approximately how many Tommy John (ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction) surgeries the legendary doctor had performed. From 1988 to that point in 2005, Andrews had performed more than 1,100 Tommy John surgeries, according to Institute records.
First of all, wow! So much for that depicted doctor's life of canceled afternoon appointments and weekends spent golfing. Our hats are off to you, Doc. Secondly, that's a pretty good sample size of surgeries to research, and the Institute reportedly researches and tracks its patients' post-surgery recovery in detail. The same source, himself in the physical therapy field, said that a good percentage of these guys can make it back to pitching in 12 to 16 months, but usually don't hit their preinjury or peak form until 18 to 24 months after surgery.
This is no surprise, of course. Those numbers have been bandied about pretty liberally the past couple of years, and our own injury expert, Stephania Bell, says in her Injuries 101 draft kit piece, "Although pitchers can come back with a solid performance in the first year, statistics seem to reflect a two-year timetable is most ideal for a return to form."
As I type this, B.J. Ryan is five days shy of 10 months since having Tommy John surgery on his left (throwing) elbow. What makes him different than all the others? Ryan was reported to have had the same kind (not a scaled-back form) of Tommy John surgery as anybody else. Considering the surgery is fairly commonplace, he likely was given a very similar rehab and throwing program as other post-TJS pitchers. And he's not exactly a spring chicken, having turned 32 in December.
So what, did he just heal quicker? Well, all bodies are different, but I highly doubt that. There are just so many examples to the contrary.
So I doubt his health, but that's not even what concerns me most. When I refer to his "preinjury form," I don't mean, say, Paul Byrd's preinjury form. Did you see Ryan pitch before his surgery? He was like the perfect closer, with the unique blend of mental toughness, confidence in both his fastball and sharp slider and a herky-jerky delivery that was both intimidating and tough to read even though coming in at 91 or 92 mph. He might be able to return to an 85 percent level, but it's unlikely he'll return to that level anytime soon.
He likely doesn't have the mental toughness after pitching in only 4 1/3 innings last season. It'll take him awhile to build up his confidence after not throwing to big league hitters in such a long time and having to basically learn how to throw all over again. Even if he can get his fastball back to 92-93 mph, that herky-jerky delivery might have been (or might have to be) overhauled to perhaps avoid further injury.
We remember Ryan as the pitcher from two paragraphs above, but it's much more likely we'll get the "85 percent" B.J. Ryan, which includes a respectable but not dominant 90 mph fastball, a higher walk rate because he lacks the feel for his pitches, and a higher hit rate as well because he has lost the edge on his pitches (mostly because he lost the juice on the fastball).
And so fantasy owners, according to Ryan's soaring draft value, are doing it all wrong. They're looking at his 2006 stats -- and maybe even Jeremy Accardo's 2007 stats -- and spinning them to 2008. But Ryan is not the same pitcher. They're reading the glowing reports of his bullpen sessions and envisioning that 6-foot-6, 260-pound bull snarling and firing it to the plate. But he's not the same pitcher. They're reading the reports that he already has been handed the keys to the closer job to begin Opening Day, which must account for something. But he's not the same pitcher.
At least not yet. Ryan might get back to the level we once loved and appreciated, and he might even have a better shot at doing that if he took some time off to begin the season and took it slow, like many Tommy John surgery recipients do. (Hint, hint.) But it's foolhardy to expect him to be there now, and I think, considering the timing here, it's foolhardy even to expect him to stay off the DL until he gets there.
More importantly, however, is what these Ryan reports have done to Jeremy Accardo, he of the 2.14 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, .206 batting average against and 30 saves (in little more than three months as the team's closer) in 2007. I took him in the ninth round in the same AL-only draft last week, which likely seemed high then and would definitely seems high now. His average draft position has been falling in both mixed and AL-only leagues alike. Consider that a nice buying opportunity. Let an owner take Ryan in, say, the 13th or 14th round of a 12-team mixed league, then look at stealing that owner's "handcuff" a few rounds later.
After all, Accardo has proven he can be a solid closer, and will be again when Ryan crashes and burns early in the season (or before it).
Brendan Roberts is a contributing writer/editor for ESPN.com Fantasy.
