Roberts Report: Pitchers deserving of a mulligan
When I drive by a junkyard, I see pieces of, well, junk. Cars with high mileage, rust, dents ... their hoods open with parts of the engine missing. My dad sees works of art.
For Father's Day, I got my dad a big die-cast of his first car, a 1955 Chevy One-Fifty sedan like the one Bob Falfa (Harrison Ford's character) drove in the movie "American Graffiti." And while looking for it online, I ran across several real '55 Chevys, many of them in dilapidated condition. What he wouldn't have given to get one of those cars, regardless of condition.
That's because he can see beyond the imperfections, beyond the faded paint and the rust and the dents to see the beauty within it. "Just think of the stories behind that car," he'd say. "Think about how many people it made happy, how many trips to the burger joint or how many people piled inside of it to get places ... She's beautiful, ain't she?"
OK, so he didn't say "ain't." He's a radio newsman, and he wouldn't "stoop" to that level. But the point here is that just a few blemishes might make something look ugly to you or me, but it is beautiful to someone else.
The same can happen with a major league pitcher's ERA. It can look ugly because of blemishes, but it's hiding "beauty within."
So just as I made a point to read up and learn about the history and charm of the 1955 Chevy last week, I have decided this week I'd try to find my way past certain pitchers' ERAs to see the real draw of the pitchers themselves. You see, a pitcher plays roughly every five games. Even the busiest starting pitchers have started just 15 or 16 games, or just less than half of what they'll end up with. A good pitcher allows about a run every three innings. Now imagine what a nine-spot in just four innings can do to a pitcher's ERA early in the season.
It can ugly-up a pitcher's ERA for a long time -- that's what it can do. After an outing like that, it would take 23 consecutive scoreless innings to get that pitcher back to a 3.00 ERA over the given stretch, and that's not likely to happen. But, but, a pitcher could fire seven scoreless innings here and another eight scoreless there and eventually make up for the bad outing. But that hasn't happened for many pitchers by this point in the season; we're not even to the halfway point. They've worked that ERA down, but it still has blemishes.
It's a fantasy owner's job not to get caught up on too many blemishes and not see the whole story. And while some pitchers are prone to high-run outings, many fantasy-worthy options are not, and their ERAs don't yet reflect the pitcher they really are. Here are some pitchers whose ERAs still reflect bad outings that can either be explained or are just uncharacteristic from that pitcher. You'll see what I mean (all ERAs are going into Thursday's games, unless noted):

Andy Pettitte, Yankees (4.29 ERA): His 10-run outing June 7 was against the Royals, not exactly an offensive powerhouse. But that ain't Pettitte; in no other start this season has he allowed more than five earned runs. Take out that triple-bogey and he has a 3.59 ERA.
Erik Bedard, Mariners (4.14 ERA): He allowed 10 earned runs to the formidable Yankees on May 23 at Yankee Stadium. The Mariners have just three games against the Yankees the remainder of the season, and they're at home. Take out that outing and Bedard has a 3.14 ERA.
Matt Cain, Giants (4.39 ERA): Cain has his detractors, and I'd be one of 'em. But even I won't judge him by his April 18 nine-run outing in St. Louis against a hot Cardinals team. Without that start, he has a respectable 3.65 ERA.
Greg Maddux, Padres (3.31 ERA): Since when have you known the Greg Maddux to allow 13 hits and nine earned runs in a single outing? Ouch. Well, a hot Arizona squad touched him for those numbers April 18 at Chase Field. Maddux hasn't allowed more than half that many runs (four) in any other start this season. Take out the April mulligan and he has an old-Maddux-esque 2.61 ERA.
Joe Blanton, A's (4.81 ERA): Blanton is always going to allow plenty of hits and not strike out many guys, but that three-inning, eight-run, one-K outing Wednesday in Arizona is still not him. The 4.23 ERA he had going into that game sounds a lot more believable.
Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays (4.15 ERA): D-Mac has been inconsistent, but he really has had only four bad outings, and one horrible one, giving up nine earned runs in 3 2/3 innings at Progressive Field on May 10. Without that outing, he'd have a 3.37 ERA, which is 71 points better than last year's mark (instead of seven points worse than it).
A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays (5.42 ERA through Thursday): The Brewers touched him up for eight runs Thursday, just two starts after the Orioles pulled the trick, too. Look at what it did to his season ERA, which was 4.33 prior to the shellacking. I'll note, however, that Burnett hasn't had an ERA over 4.00 in a given season since 2003. It's a good time to get him, assuming he's not hiding some sort of injury.

Aaron Laffey, Indians (2.98 ERA): Did you know the Texas Rangers lead the major leagues in runs scored? I'll bet Laffey knows, as his start at Texas (eight earned runs in five innings) is the only start in his last nine that hasn't been a quality start. Without that Texas start, he has a 2.01 ERA for the season. That's far from fifth-starter production.
Kyle Lohse, Cardinals (3.77 ERA): Versus the Cubs, who have the most runs scored in the NL, and at Colorado; If your pitcher had a two-start week like that week, you'd sit him down. Well, Lohse had that in back-to-back starts May 3 and 8 (although they didn't both fall over the Monday-through-Sunday time period), and he was bombed in both. Take those out, however, and he has allowed just 22 earned runs in 78 1/3 innings (2.53 ERA). Cards pitching coach Dave Duncan has done it again.
Brian Bannister, Royals (4.81 ERA): I watched Bannister pitch Wednesday at St. Louis, and I must admit I wasn't impressed. With that out of the way, I'll note that his two worst starts this season (both seven-run outings) have come at Texas and Boston, which warrants more of a pass than at other venues. Without those two starts, he has a 3.78 ERA. Um, that's pretty good.
Roy Oswalt, Astros (5.04 ERA): I'm not lying here: I'm going to attempt to sway you to still believe in Oswalt. The only starts he has allowed more than three earned runs in an outing are at Texas (aforementioned), versus Philly (third highest-scoring offense in the majors), at Chicago Cubs (aforementioned) and versus an amazingly hot Florida offense on April 11. Three earned runs. That's it. That's all he has allowed in any other start.
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So did it work? You buyin' Oswalt. Obviously, I'm still a believer. Who's with me? Come on, the water is warm. And as Roy (probably) would say and the great Bob Falfa did say when Terry Fields declared that nobody could beat John Milner's deuce coupe: "I ain't nobody, dork." Classic.
Brendan Roberts is a contributing writer/editor for ESPN Fantasy.
