Matsui, Bard to the DL
What's been going on around the National League in the past week? Tristan H. Cockcroft takes a quick-hitting look at the news and notes for each of the 16 NL teams:
Atlanta Braves: The Braves continue to employ a left-field platoon of Matt Diaz and Ryan Langerhans, with Diaz starting all six of the team's games against left-handers and Langerhans all five against right-handers. Still, NL-only owners should expect better from Diaz, even as the team inevitably begins to face more right-handed pitching (there's simply more of them in the game). For one thing, since joining the Braves last season, he has hit right-handers (.330 AVG, .846 OPS) better than left-handers (.300/.812). For another, Diaz is easily the best pure batsman of the team's four platoon mates between first base and left field (Langerhans, Scott Thorman and Craig Wilson being the others), with .309/.807 career big league numbers and .315/.853 minor league rates. Perhaps Diaz's so-so defense might prevent him from ever being the everyday left fielder, but it'd be nice to see the Braves play him like they did after last Aug. 1, when he had 153 plate appearances to Langerhans' 93. Assuming 700 PAs for the position, that'd project to about 435 for Diaz, and that's plenty for him to offer you a useful .300 batting average and 15-20 homers.
Florida Marlins: The second performance-related closer change in baseball -- Houston's Brad Lidge was the first -- comes from South Florida, where recent acquisition Jorge Julio became perhaps the shortest-lived closer we'll see all season (and I'm talking real closers, if Julio even qualifies as that). In six games this year, he has blown each of his two save chances, has allowed seven runs and 10 hits in 4 2/3 innings and, perhaps most disturbingly, has 10 walks compared to one strikeout. Command has long been a worry with Julio; he has now averaged one walk per 4.42 innings for his big league career. Sure, he throws hard, clocking in the high 90s, but we're talking about a pitcher too erratic to be consistent enough in the role for an entire year. Considering the price tag Florida paid for Julio in the trade with Arizona -- top prospect Yusmeiro Petit -- it's possible the right-hander could get another chance in the role later this year, but Lidge has to be looked at as a much better bet to return to the role. Henry Owens, he of the 0.64 spring ERA (11 games) and seven shutout regular-season frames, becomes a popular sleeper for the role, but don't overlook the fact that Taylor Tankersley is now healthy and off the DL. Each warrants a pickup.
New York Mets: Sadly, Lastings Milledge, long billed as a future 30/30 candidate, was the roster casualty to clear a spot for No. 5 starter Mike Pelfrey, who took his first turn in the rotation last Friday. Milledge had a nice spring, batting .367 (22-for-60) and stealing five bases, and based on Shawn Green's .149 exhibition-season batting average, it seemed he might get a chance to either platoon or supplant the veteran in right field. Things didn't pan out quite that way, though; Milledge managed only three plate appearances in nine games, and not a single start, and Green's .300/.841 rates make it more likely he'll stick around a while longer as the starter. It seems as though Milledge's best chance at 2007 fantasy value is a trade, but expect him to get recalled if either Green or Moises Alou suffers a long-term injury. Milledge still has a bright future, but a player in his situation, on a contending team with veteran starters, isn't worth much more than NL-only reserve status.
Philadelphia Phillies: Freddy Garcia's biceps problem has healed, and he was set to make his Phillies debut Monday against the Mets, a challenging matchup for the right-hander. As has been the case for most pitchers, the rain has wreaked havoc with Garcia's rehabilitation schedule; he had a scheduled rehab start for Class A Clearwater washed out last Tuesday, forcing a five-inning simulated game instead. Then he had his scheduled Phillies debut pushed back from Sunday to Monday after the team's game against the Astros -- a better matchup for him -- was postponed. Whether the weather has any effect on the speed of Garcia's return to form is unknown, but consider that Monday assignment a good indicator of how strong he is right now. He'll face another trying matchup Saturday at Cincinnati, but after that he should get the Marlins (home, Apr. 27), Braves (road, May 2) and Diamondbacks (road, May 7), which should be more usable. Remember, he does have that sterling 19-6 record, 2.34 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 31 career starts against NL foes, enough to suggest that a healthy Garcia could win 14-15 games with a sub-4.00 ERA.
Washington Nationals: Rookie Kory Casto has looked overmatched in left field to date, batting .179 (5-for-28) with eight strikeouts, clearing the way for Chris Snelling to get additional playing time in left field. Such rookie struggles aren't surprising; many first-year players need time to get comfortable against better big league pitching, especially those who averaged a strikeout per 4.70 at-bats in Double-A ball, as Casto did in 2006. Snelling has started three games in a row, and four of the past five, going 4-for-11 (.364 AVG) with four RBIs in those four contests. He's got a bit of NL-only appeal, having managed .312/.872 career minor league rates, but don't expect much more than No. 4/5 outfielder status in those formats. Snelling has a shaky injury history, having never played more than 114 games in a single professional season and averaging 58 the past five years. The fact that he averages only one homer per 39.9 at-bats as a pro, and one steal per 11.9 contests, suggests that he's a batting-average contributor first and foremost. Like Freddy Sanchez in Pittsburgh, Snelling would need to bat in a better lineup spot to be a runs scored or RBI factor, so while he has some upside, remember that it does have a limit.
Chicago Cubs: Frankly, the whole Mark Prior injury story is getting a little old by now; I'm beginning to wonder whether I should simply recycle past stories about him to save on keystrokes. Shocking: Prior is headed for a visit with Dr. James Andrews to review test results on his ailing shoulder, perhaps meaning he's soon due for surgery. If we get anything of value from Prior this season, consider it a welcome surprise. … Now, news that's actually shocking: Aramis Ramirez missed the Cubs' weekend series against the Reds with tendinitis in his right wrist. The team was cautiously optimistic he'd be available for Monday's game, but wrist problems bear watching for a slugger of Ramirez's stature, as they can often limit a hitter's power potential in the short term. It sounds like he'll be able to dodge a DL stint, but keep tabs on his progress. NL-only owners in particular should watch closely and be prepared to pounce should Ramirez hit the shelf and Scott Moore get called up. Moore is off to a sluggish start at Triple-A Iowa, batting .154 (4-for-26) with 10 strikeouts, but he's also an underrated source of left-handed power, having belted 24 home runs in 149 games between the majors and minors in 2006.
Cincinnati Reds: Two things are becoming readily apparent in Cincinnati; the Reds need to find ways to squeeze Josh Hamilton into their lineup more often, and, quite possibly, the rookie outfielder is destined to become the feel-good story of the season. In the past week, he has earned four starts, and in them he's a combined 4-for-15 (.267 AVG) with two home runs and five RBIs, not a bad regular-season start coming off a spring in which he batted .403 (29-for-72) with a 1.012 OPS. The Reds can keep rotating their four outfielders -- Adam Dunn, Ryan Freel and Ken Griffey Jr. being the others -- as long as they want, but much of the appeal of Reds players is their versatility; denying Freel's usefulness as a candidate at second or third base limits his playing time and therefore his fantasy appeal. Sure, Griffey's questionable health (in the long term) could render the point moot, but manager Jerry Narron should get more creative with his lineup than he has so far. Most NL-only owners have probably already snagged Hamilton, but mixed-league teams need to monitor his status closely. Lack of experience or not, the former No. 1 overall pick did manage decent .293/.807 minor league rates when healthy earlier in his career, so there's upside there.
Houston Astros: There's good news and bad news for Jason Jennings owners, and the good news is that the right-hander's recent MRI revealed no damage to the ligament in his elbow. The bad news, though, is that he had any elbow problems at all, as he's headed to the disabled list, most likely for the remainder of April. Jennings was a somewhat popular late-round bargain in many owners' minds, as his escape from Coors Field to a team considered stronger all around made many think he could be a big winner (think 15-plus) with a respectable ERA (4.00 range) in 2007. He still might be, but elbow problems this early do put him at increased risk for the full year. In Jennings' place, expect the Astros to shuffle their rotation to avoid the fifth starter when possible, though this wouldn't be a bad time for NL-only owners to stash Fernando Nieve. He was perhaps the team's second-most-effective starter in the spring (Roy Oswalt was first), with a 3.60 ERA, and his career 3.41 ERA and 1.25 WHIP as a professional (entering 2006) are promising numbers. It's likely down to him or Matt Albers as the fill-in while Jennings is out.
Milwaukee Brewers: Though most of the attention paid to rookie pitchers this spring went to Phil Hughes and Homer Bailey, Yovani Gallardo could be every bit as valuable a fantasy commodity in 2007. Through two starts for Triple-A Nashville, he has a 3.27 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 19 strikeouts in 11 innings, a pace that could easily make him a candidate for the Milwaukee rotation by May or June. Right now, the Brewers' starting five is performing nicely enough to keep Gallardo in the minors, but taking into account Ben Sheets' injury history, Gallardo should be kept on hand in NL-only and keeper leagues as a strong candidate to be up before the All-Star break. … The Brewers seem to be souring on Bill Hall as their center fielder, perhaps a result of his two errors in nine games, as he sat out two of the team's past three games for Gabe Gross. That seems too quick for the team to consider a change, but if it does, third base would be a much smarter destination than right field, where Corey Hart deserves a long look as a regular. Hall's slow start (.171/.599) could be the result of him adjusting to a new position, so be patient with him.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Though closer Salomon Torres ripped off four straight saves to begin the season, he blew his fifth chance and suffered the loss in his sixth appearance of the season last Wednesday. Two poor outings aren't anything to get worried about, as the right-hander is 16-for-18 in save chances with a 2.53 ERA in his last 20 appearances dating back to Sept. 2. Still, the fact that set-up man Matt Capps has six straight scoreless outings in which opponents are 2-for-20 combined against him (.100 BAA) makes him a smart handcuff pickup, so long as you have the roster room. … Back stiffness cost Adam LaRoche a game last week, and it's possible it's the cause of his poor start (.088 AVG, 15 K's, 34 AB). Like the aforementioned wrist, back problems do have a way of sapping a hitter's power, meaning LaRoche's health should be closely monitored. Be patient with him as he continues to adjust to his new team, though, as he remains a 30-homer candidate.
St. Louis Cardinals: Rest has been prescribed for Chris Carpenter's ailing elbow, but he landed on the 15-day DL last Tuesday and is now a serious long-term risk. He has been diagnosed with moderate arthritis and a mild impingement in his right elbow and could be a candidate for surgery if the prognosis doesn't improve at his next examination. … Braden Looper is off to a nice start, following up his 2.18 ERA in five spring starts with a 2.37 mark in his first three regular-season turns, two of them victories. He's hardly a bad pitcher, with a 3.53 career ERA, but as a long-term bet, he's not great. Looper's 1.75 career strikeout-to-walk ratio is weak, he's never pitched more than 86 innings in 10 previous professional seasons, and he's terrible against left-handed hitters, with .305/.835 rates for his big league career. Keep using Looper as a mixed-league matchups type or NL-only option, but if he keeps this up, he'd be a smart sell-high candidate in the near future.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Carlos Quentin went 3-for-7 (.429 AVG) in his two-game rehabilitation stint for Triple-A Tucson and was scheduled to return to the lineup on Monday. He should immediately claim a starting role, presumably in right field, and his owners can go ahead and activate him. Quentin's .309/.949 career minor league rates bode well for his future, and it doesn't appear his shoulder injury should hinder him too much, meaning he's again the breakout candidate he seemed when he batted .357 (10-for-28) with three homers and 10 RBIs in the spring. … Randy Johnson was scheduled for a bullpen session on Monday to determine whether he'd be ready to return to the Arizona rotation Thursday against the Padres. Depending on how it goes, he could need one more rehab start, though it appears he should be ready to help fantasy teams by month's end. One benefit if the latter happens: It would allow Edgar Gonzalez and Micah Owings one more start each to determine which one gets bumped from the rotation.
Colorado Rockies: It's a shame Kazuo Matsui hit the DL on Sunday due to back spasms. Since his move to Colorado, he was a .349 hitter with 13 stolen bases in 41 games, looking like the reliable fantasy middle infielder so many people hoped he'd be when he made the move from Japan three years ago. No, he's not the kind of player who should be expected to bat .300-plus with 45-50 steals (which was his pre-injury pace), but a respectable .280-.290 batting average and 25-30 steals could have been expected. Matsui could still have that value upon his return, as his .400/.943 rates in 19 career games at Coors Field at least paint him as a strong spot starter for home contests. For now, NL-only owners thin in the middle infield should consider Jamey Carroll as a short-term sub, as his .374/.928 career Coors rates (77 games) sure look intriguing.
Los Angeles Dodgers: It's a good thing Andre Ethier had the kind of game on Sunday night that opens eyes -- 3-for-5, one homer, four RBIs -- because up to that point he was beginning to look like a candidate to be bumped to the bench or back to Triple-A. It didn't help his cause early in the year that he was being used in a straight platoon with Matt Kemp, but now that Kemp is on the DL with a separated right shoulder, Ethier has an extended opportunity to show fantasy owners what he can do. His .351/.846 rates against left-handers in 2006 suggest he should play every day and be capable of close to a .300 batting average with double-digit power, and that's a useful NL-only starter with the potential to be a help in mixed formats too. … Rafael Furcal returned to action last Friday, and his two stolen bases on Sunday demonstrate that his sprained ankle is no longer a problem. The timing of his DL stint made him a nice late-spring draft bargain, and a healthy Furcal is easily capable of a .290 batting average, 15 home runs, 40 stolen bases and 100-plus runs, especially now that he's back in his traditional leadoff spot.
San Diego Padres: Josh Bard landed on the DL last Thursday due to a strained groin, a frustrating blow to fantasy owners who were counting on him to repeat, or at least come close to, the .333/.926 rates he managed in a part-time role in 2006. No, Bard is nowhere near that talented a batsman, with .281/.748 career minor league numbers and .271/.746 in the big leagues, but he's no slouch, either. He's capable of hitting in the .280s with moderate power (think low double digits). There's value in that type of player, mostly as a No. 2 mixed-league catcher or NL-only starter, so Bard owners will merely have to hope he can make a swift recovery. In his absence, Rob Bowen and Pete LaForest are sharing time behind the plate. The problem for fantasy is that LaForest is the better hitter, but his suspect defense will limit his at-bats enough that he's only an option as a second catcher in NL-only play. The Padres will have to make do with a catcher tandem not unlike Baltimore's (Paul Bako/Alberto Castillo) for the next two weeks, so fantasy owners should probably look elsewhere for Bard's replacement.
San Francisco Giants: So much for the Barry Bonds-hitting-third experiment; after six games with that arrangement, during which time the Giants scored a combined 13 runs, manager Bruce Bochy returned the slugger to his more traditional cleanup spot last Tuesday. Since then the team is 2-1 and has scored 14 runs, and Bonds himself belted two home runs last Friday before rain washed out the two weekend games at Pittsburgh. Whether he bats third or fourth won't have much impact on Bonds' fantasy totals, but Rich Aurilia, who has batted third in the past three games, gets a decent boost as a result. Aurilia is 5-for-14 (.357 AVG) in those contests and should see better pitches to hit; remember that Aurilia himself managed a .328 batting average and 34 homers batting ahead of Bonds in 2001. Considering he qualifies at first base, third base and shortstop in most leagues, Aurilia could be a rather useful .290-hitting, 20-homer candidate now.
Tristan H. Cockcroft covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.
