Around the NL: Kelly Johnson emerging
What's been going on around the National League in the past week? Tristan H. Cockcroft takes a quick-hitting look at the news and notes for each of the 16 NL teams:
Atlanta Braves: Kelly Johnson sure has warmed to the starting second-base role, hasn't he? To date, he has been every bit the on-base specialist the Braves had hoped for out of the leadoff spot -- he has a .418 on-base percentage -- but with a .292 batting average and four home runs, he's actually becoming a bit of a threat with the bat, too. Johnson, who missed most of the 2006 minor league season recovering from Tommy John surgery, was a .281 career hitter with an .830 OPS in his minor league days, and his combination of decent pop and speed make him a strong bet to remain a useful mixed-league middle infielder this season. He could easily net his fantasy owners at least a .280 batting average, 15 homers and 15 steals, and batting first in the lineup on an everyday basis should mean enough plate appearances to give him a chance for more.
Florida Marlins: The closer role hasn't gotten any firmer in Florida of late, as supposed go-to guy Henry Owens was pulled from his most recent save chance on Monday after allowing a home run and two doubles. Manager Fredi Gonzalez pulled the right-hander to play the matchups with left-hander Renyel Pinto against lefty-hitting Brian McCann, earning Pinto his first save. Don't count on many -- if any -- more saves for Pinto, but it's clear Owens' hold on the closer role is shakier than initially indicated, meaning those with an opportunity to stash Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom or Taylor Tankersley on an NL-only bench should consider doing so. Take special note that Tankersley earned the hold while pitching a one-two-three eighth inning in that game, which could be an indication that he's one step closer to earning a look in the closer's role.
New York Mets: Is this the year Oliver Perez finally gets his act together? Through three starts, the left-hander has looked much more composed than he did in the two seasons prior, with a 3.31 ERA and 1.35 WHIP through three starts, both respectable rates. That's a big change from 2005-06, when he combined for a 10-18 record, 6.22 ERA and 1.71 WHIP, ranking him among the worst pitchers in baseball. Perhaps Perez's work with pitching guru Rick Peterson has helped cure some of the command woes he had during those two seasons -- he averaged 5.76 walks per nine back then -- but let's not call him a guy with pinpoint command today, either. Perez does present a WHIP risk in any fantasy format, and against patient, deep lineups, especially right-handed-heavy ones, his problems could be exploited. Be prepared to deal with the occasional cold spell, which is why I'd hesitate to call him more than a spot-start candidate this season.
Philadelphia Phillies: In perhaps the most perplexing personnel move we'll see all year, the Phillies bumped Brett Myers from their rotation last Wednesday, installing Jon Lieber in his spot. Sure, Myers was 0-2 with a 9.39 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in his first three starts, but to put the decision into perspective, if fantasy owners made such hasty decisions based on small sample sizes, well, let's just say their chances at a league championship wouldn't be great. Myers is now mired in set-up relief, a place where he can't exhibit his second-to-third tier fantasy potential, but I'll preach patience with him. After all, the Phillies were rumored to be considering installing him as their closer during spring training. That could still come to pass considering Tom Gordon's two blown saves in five chances and his 5.68 ERA, as well as his propensity for injury. Even if Myers' eventual destination isn't the ninth inning, though, it's not unthinkable manager Charlie Manuel will think better of the decision and shift the right-hander back into the rotation. Keep Myers on hand, except in the shallowest of mixed leagues, as it's hard to imagine a team leaving such a talented pitcher in a middle-relief role for long. Lieber, incidentally, gets a boost in value and again should warrant matchups consideration in NL-only leagues. He has a 1.26 WHIP in his Phillies career, but his 4.76 career ERA at Citizens Bank Park does make him a shaky option in home games against stronger offenses.
Washington Nationals: As feared, the Nationals' weak offensive attack has had an adverse effect on Ryan Zimmerman's numbers, as the franchise's one true superstar is off to a difficult .241/.633 start. It's the first time in his professional career that he has struggled, which is why the coming weeks are so important in determining how he responds, but at this point it's hard to see Zimmerman being an elite performer in 2007, particularly in the runs scored or RBI categories. To date, he has only 20 plate appearances with runners in scoring position; by comparison, Mets No. 8 hitter Jose Valentin has 28. Zimmerman did make quite a living on timely hitting in 2006, and it's worth mentioning that he did manage only .242/.735 numbers last April. He's capable of batting close to .300, but taking into account the Washington offense, better than 90 runs or RBIs seems unrealistic.
Chicago Cubs: Alfonso Soriano returned to action on Monday, but back in left field, his position for all of 2006. Manager Lou Piniella felt it was better to return the outfielder to a less taxing position, which perhaps could help him get closer to the 40/40 form he displayed in Washington. Whether Soriano plays center or left field matters little to his fantasy owners, but the thought was that the switch would clear the center-field role for rookie Felix Pie. Unfortunately, Pie didn't start Monday's game, with Jacque Jones instead sliding over to center field, an alignment we might see more often than expected. Pie owners should keep him on reserve in NL-only formats in the event he heats up and earns more at-bats, but this is also a prime opportunity for Jones, Matt Murton and Cliff Floyd to step up and establish themselves as reliable regulars. … Mark Prior's season could be over after it was announced that he will undergo exploratory surgery on his shoulder on Tuesday. Dr. James Andrews will perform the operation, and if he finds anything, he'll repair it, making it highly unlikely the right-hander will see big league game action in 2007.
Cincinnati Reds: Last week I wrote about manager Jerry Narron's unwillingness to try Ryan Freel in the infield to allow Josh Hamilton's red-hot bat a spot in the outfield, and sure enough, in the Reds' next two games, Freel got the start at third base. That's something that bears watching, as usual third baseman Edwin Encarnacion is off to a terrible start, with .190/.484 rates through 18 games. What's interesting, though, is that Narron to date has yet to try Freel out at second base, where Brandon Phillips is off to an uninspiring .222/.744 start of his own. For as long as Encarnacion and Phillips continue to struggle, Freel's chance of earning additional time at their positions increases, and Freel owners, in particular, have to be rooting for that in order to get him position flexibility. Don't give up on either infielder yet, but with Hamilton looking like the real deal, someone will need to sit.
Houston Astros: Brad Lidge only seems to slip farther from the closer role every day, and at this point it's looking pretty unlikely he'll get another chance to reclaim the job, at least while wearing an Astros uniform. His performance last Friday was most distressing; he allowed three runs on two hits and two walks while recording only two outs to nearly blow a 6-2 lead, and through nine games this season he now has an 8.53 ERA and 3.32 WHIP. Dan Wheeler, meanwhile, has three saves and a 3.00 ERA in five appearances since taking over the role. Lidge owners in shallow formats can consider dropping the right-hander at this point, as it's also troubling that the two teams rumored to be interested in him, the Devil Rays and Red Sox, now have more stability at the back end of their bullpens. Lidge is quite a bit farther from getting a shot at closing again than it might seem.
Milwaukee Brewers: It's a real shame for Derrick Turnbow that the Brewers already have a more proven closer ahead of him in Francisco Cordero, because Turnbow's performance to date might otherwise have made him one of the more popular sleepers for saves by this point. The former Brewers closer has managed a 1.80 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 10 innings after finishing the spring with a 2.61 ERA in 11 appearances. On another team, one could make the case he'd be a candidate to close. In fact, taking into account Cordero's seven saves, nine scoreless innings and 16 strikeouts, one might say the Brewers have one of the more underrated bullpen back ends in baseball. Both right-handers are pitching at peak form right now, and NL-only owners could yet earn a vulture save from Turnbow on Cordero's off nights, as was the case Monday. Keep an eye on Turnbow, because he looks once more like he could be a solid closer if given another opportunity.
Pittsburgh Pirates: So much for poor spring numbers. Tom Gorzelanny, one of the more overlooked young starters in the NL, is off to one of the hottest starts of any pitcher to date, going 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in four starts, an impressive performance for a pitcher on a fifth-place team. That's a stark contrast to the left-hander's spring, during which he had a 7.96 ERA and 15 walks in 26 innings, struggling mightily with his control. Of course, much of the reason we suggest fantasy owners don't put too much stock in spring numbers is that the small sample sizes hide the on-field adjustments players tend to make in March, and those who were aware that Gorzelanny capped off his spring with an eight-strikeout, one-walk effort might have realized he was starting to get his command back on track. It's asking a lot for Gorzelanny to be a big winner behind the Pittsburgh offense, but his 2.91 ERA and 1.12 WHIP for his minor league career do indicate he should be one of the more underrated ERA/WHIP options among NL starters in 2007.
St. Louis Cardinals: So far, Anthony Reyes hasn't appeared nearly the future ace he did in that outstanding 2006 World Series Game 1 effort, losing each of his first three regular-season starts while posting a 5.63 ERA. That's a real disappointment considering he was one of the spring's most notable standouts, with a 2.70 ERA in five starts, but don't give up on the young right-hander just yet. Reyes hasn't received the benefit of much run support, with his Cardinals scoring only three runs combined for him in his three turns, and in each of his three games he went at least five innings and didn't allow more than four runs. In addition, the Cardinals have made too much of a habit of pushing him back in their rotation, starting him in their fifth game of the season and then not again for another nine days, which could be interrupting his rhythm. Remember, Reyes did possess ace-caliber upside in his minor league days, and there should be better times ahead for him. Keep him reserved until he shows some signs of improvement, but don't release him outright in mixed formats.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Randy Johnson's long-awaited season debut is finally here, as he'll be activated from the DL to start Tuesday's game against the Padres. He managed a 3.00 ERA in his three rehabilitation starts, though his .265 BAA does indicate he's not quite his old dominating self from his earlier days in the desert. Still, that Johnson's first two starts -- he'll also pitch Sunday against the Giants -- come against offenses in the lower half of the majors in runs per game makes him worth activating immediately, even if he needs a couple of turns to get into full form. His skill set makes him a strong bet to bounce back from his high-ERA tendencies with the Yankees, and given close to 30 starts, he could manage 175 strikeouts. … Sadly, Johnson's return could mark the end of Micah Owings' stay in the rotation. The rookie managed a 2.93 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in his three starts before landing on the DL last Saturday with a strained hamstring, a setback that could lead to a trip back to the minors once healthy. Edgar Gonzalez, Owings' primary competition for a spot once Johnson returned, has respectable 4.26/1.26 rates coming off a 4.70/1.26 spring performance, and he should retain his spot if he's effective the next few weeks. Keep Owings around in NL-only formats, but his primary appeal at this point is more in keeper leagues.
Colorado Rockies: It was bad enough for Willy Taveras' cause that veteran Steve Finley landed a spot on the Rockies' opening day roster; now the speedster's sluggish start is beginning to lose him additional playing time to Finley. Though many forecasted performances from Taveras not unlike those Juan Pierre enjoyed in Colorado a few years back, to date Taveras has batted only .192 and struck out once per 3.71 at-bats, numbers not befitting a leadoff hitter. Of course, one could make the case that Taveras might merely be adjusting to his new surroundings, and, as always, we preach patience with most veteran players. Fortunately for him, Finley is off to an equally dreadful start, with .135/.470 rates, so one can only hope the Rockies realize the error of their ways and let the veteran go before long. Finley, who has started two of the team's past four games in center field, merely steals valuable at-bats from more intriguing fantasy options like Taveras and Jeff Baker, so Taveras owners should hope he turns his year around and renders Finley useless.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Many of Jason Schmidt's doubters entering 2007 felt that health, not performance, would be the reason he'd be a disappointment this season, and apparently, those people might have been right. The right-hander landed on the DL last Tuesday with shoulder inflammation, after being hit hard for a 7.36 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in his first three starts of the season. Schmidt's velocity has been down since the spring, and he has been known in the past to attempt to pitch through pain, meaning his owners should be a bit more concerned about his long-term chances this time than in seasons past. There's no timetable for his return, though most signs point to early May. … Mark Hendrickson is filling in for Schmidt, and he tossed a 5 2/3-inning, one-run effort in his first start of the season last Thursday at Coors, a good effort taking into account the matchup. The sizable left-hander, though disappointing last year in Los Angeles, shapes up as a useful matchups or NL-only option, though he should be avoided against stronger offenses.
San Diego Padres: Kevin Kouzmanoff's slow start -- .133/.442 -- continues to allow Russell Branyan to sneak into the third-base mix, and, before long, the two could find themselves in a straight platoon, an arrangement Kouzmanoff owners dread. Branyan, with his .292/1.011 numbers and improved contact rate, has earned each of the team's past four starts against a right-hander, which makes sense considering he has been so much better against righties (.255/.898) than lefties (.165/.586) since 2004. Kouzmanoff's .339 spring batting average and .332 career minor league mark do indicate he's got the talent to improve and reclaim the everyday job, but keep him reserved until then. He's going to find himself rather limited in playing time if he doesn't heat up in the coming weeks. … The Padres expect to get Josh Bard (groin) back from the disabled list on Friday, as he'll spend the week rehabbing at the team's extended spring training site the next few days. He should immediately reclaim his starting role, and be a reliable No. 2 catcher once healthy.
San Francisco Giants: Matt Cain is living up to the billing as a top breakout candidate so far this season, with a performance much like his stellar five-start string last August and September, when he was 4-0 with a 0.25 ERA. He's only 1-1 through four starts, but his 1.55 ERA and 0.83 WHIP put him among the game's best to date. He now has a 2.99 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 133 strikeouts in 138 1/3 innings in 21 starts dating back to last July 1, erasing the memory of his so-so spring training, when he had a 6.15 ERA in seven starts. It's asking a lot for Cain to be a top-10 fantasy starter this early in his career, but it's not an outrageous thought, either. He might not wind up a big winner, but close to 200 strikeouts, a 3.00 ERA and 1.15 WHIP could be his final numbers.
Tristan H. Cockcroft covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.
