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July 22, 2008, 3:36 PM

Big Rotowski: Do you feel lucky?

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By Christopher Harris
ESPN.com
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This past Sunday, in my deep mixed league, I started Willie Harris. He went 2-for-3 with three walks, a homer and five runs batted in. So yeah, I know a little something about luck.

We're about 60 percent of the way through the 2008 regular season, and I'd say it's just about time for those percentages we've been talking about all season to start kicking in. Wouldn't you? After all, if you drafted guys like Aaron Harang, Paul Konerko, Robinson Cano and Javier Vazquez, you're about sick and tired of waiting for "track records" and "statistical outliers" to begin working themselves out. It's not too late to make a move in your fantasy baseball league, but it's getting close. It would be nice if we could get a little luck on our side.

Now, I'm not here to tell you that every formerly good player who's turned in a crummy '08 season to date has been unlucky. Nor am I here to tell you that every formerly mediocre player who's set the world ablaze in '08 has a rabbit's foot lodged you-know-where. But there are a couple of interesting stats we can look at -- batting average on balls in play and left-on-base percentage -- that can help us figure out if 2008's surprises will continue, and whether dead-in-the-water players might show a little life in the next two-plus months.

Batting average on balls in play (BABIP), and its pitcher equivalent, balls-in-play average (BIPA), have been favorites of stat heads for years. Among common sabermetrics, these are among my faves; they help us identify outlier seasons. Both BABIP and BIPA tend to regress to a league mean of around .300, so when we see a hitter or pitcher who boasts BABIP or BIPA numbers well above or below .300, we tend to want to proclaim that they've been "lucky" or "unlucky." For pitchers, the same can be said for left on base percentage (LOB%), which measures how many runners a pitcher has stranded. While a high LOB% doesn't automatically mean a pitcher has been lucky, it does indicate a relative preponderance of baserunners allowed, and the assumption is that if you allow a ton of baserunners, eventually it'll bite you.

Now, by themselves, these numbers won't tell us whether a player's unexpectedly good season will turn bad, or whether a player's unexpectedly bad season will turn good. But they do help paint a picture of possible trade (and trade-away) targets as we dig deeper and deeper into summer. Let's take a look at the raw numbers, and list the 15 highest and lowest BABIP hitters, through Sunday:

I've included each player's lifetime BABIP (this year included) for context. There are some hitters who simply get a lot of hits when they put a ball in play; for example, Matt Holliday's lifetime BABIP is .357, so it would be fallacious to call his .369 BABIP this year "lucky." Also, it's not as if every player must regress to his career BABIP average every season. Players will maintain outlier seasons, in which they simply have a lot of balls that find a lot of holes for an entire year. But the tendency is for the "unlucky" BABIP guys to get better, and the "lucky" BABIP guys to get worse.

Who stands out here? Freddy Sanchez is nobody's idea of a power-hitting middle infielder, but he did hit a "lucky" .344 (with a .370 BABIP) in 2006 and hit a "lucky" .304 (with a .334 BABIP) in '07. Given that he doesn't seem to be injured, Sanchez's average will, I think, climb well above its current .230. Konerko's average did dip from .313 in '06 to .259 in '07, but there's little evidence to support another drop all the way down to his current .217; he's been, quite literally, the unluckiest hitter in baseball this year. I expect that to change. Adam Dunn also has a convincing argument that he'd be worth acquiring on the cheap right now, while his average languishes at .230. Ryan Howard and Cano, who aren't quite on our list, are two more guys who I think will see their averages climb from August forward, in part because of their "unlucky" BABIP numbers so far in '08.

On the flip side, I think we can probably agree that Milton Bradley, someone I rated very highly coming into the season but someone who's a career .277 hitter even while including his .312 so far this year, is headed for something of a correction. I had very little belief in Xavier Nady when he was scorching the NL back in May, and an inevitable regression has come, but not enough: he's a career .280 hitter still hitting .323, and his "luck" numbers indicate he's not done falling back. And Chipper Jones is certainly living proof that a guy needs to be lucky for an entire year to flirt with .400; now that that quixotic quest is probably about over, statistical logic indicates he's probably headed back "down" to another .340 type season. That doesn't mean I definitely deal him away, though. Because .340 is still, like, really good.

Now let's look at the starting pitchers:

Gavin Floyd and Justin Duchscherer really stand out here as having outlier seasons. Now, we have to acknowledge that Floyd is still only 26 and had never started more than 11 games in a big league season until '08, and Duchscherer (who turns 31 in November) had started exactly five big league games before this year. So it's not impossible that these guys are simply uncovering skills that will be theirs to keep. Still, I have strong doubts, and consider each a very good sell-high candidate. In fact, Duchscherer is also third in the majors in LOB%, and that really makes me worried about him:

Joe Saunders, it should be noted, also appears on both lists, and while his overall stat line still looks scintillating (12-5, 3.05 ERA, 1.14 WHIP), I'd be willing to deal him. I'd like to say the same about Ryan Dempster, but I have to admit: His magic so far this season (11-4, 3.05 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 111 K's in 132 2/3 IP) is infectious. I still would think about dealing him, because the numbers indicate a regression should come. But in a season in which the Cubs are poised to make a run, I'd want to make sure I got enough for Dempster to make it worth my while.

And who are the bad-luck kids poised to turn it around? I'm still on the Bronson Arroyo bandwagon, though I'd like his fantasy value more for the rest of '08 if the Reds would do the sensible thing and ship him out of that Cincy bandbox. I'd deal for A.J. Burnett if you can convince yourself he'll be healthy, because even if he doesn't get traded, his solid 1.52 ground-ball-fly-ball ratio should stand him in better stead eventually. And heck, while we weren't looking, Jarrod Washburn started pitching relatively well: Since a horrid May, he has gone eight starts with a combined 3.02 ERA, and in June his WHIP was 1.20. Headed into last night's start against the Red Sox, he wasn't a terrible acquisition candidate in AL-only leagues. I'm probably not dealing for Roy Oswalt just yet; he's on the DL with a sore hip and I've seen red flags surrounding this guy all year, but if you can get Harang extremely cheap, you should consider it. He's been unlucky and slightly injured (with a strained forearm that landed him on the DL), but it's not hard to imagine him reversing the trend and becoming the guy we thought we were getting at the season's outset. Again, I wouldn't pay full price, but if the Harang owner in your league is fed up, it's time to swoop in and pray for better luck.

Christopher Harris is a fantasy baseball, football and racing analyst for ESPN.com. He is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner across all three of those sports. You can e-mail him here.