Challenge Week 6: Get Furcal
Each week, Tristan H. Cockcroft offers his strategies for the Baseball Challenge game. Look for his best bargains, busts and daily specials every Sunday.
CATCHER: In weeks when the Giants' Bengie Molina (4.0 price tag) faces a fair share of left-handers, it's a prime time to use him. For his career, he's a .294 hitter with an .824 OPS against lefties, and of his seven games this week, three of them come against them. In fact, he's already 2-for-6 with a home run this year against Saturday opponent Jeff Francis. Others to consider: Michael Barrett (5.0), Josh Bard (4.0).
FIRST BASE: He's no big-time slugger or speedster, but the Red Sox's Kevin Youkilis (4.9) is a consistent on-base threat whose lineup spot makes him an intriguing, underappreciated value pick. Three games at Toronto's Rogers Centre, a hitter-friendly environment, and three against the Orioles, against whom he has .327/.962 career rates, is a favorable schedule. Others to consider: Adrian Gonzalez (6.1), Rich Aurilia (5.0).
SECOND BASE: The Cubs continue to find creative ways to get Ryan Theriot (3.6) into their lineup, granting him starts in 13 of their past 18 contests (through Thursday). With three left-handed opponents on the Cubs' six-game schedule, Theriot should continue to play regularly, and those three games at Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park sure do look appealing. Others to consider: Ray Durham (5.3), Robinson Cano (5.2).
THIRD BASE: Playing five of his six scheduled games against right-handers might not seem to make a favorable schedule for the Red Sox's Mike Lowell (5.4), at least not until you look at the individuals. He hits both Toronto's Tomo Ohka (.333 AVG, 3 HR, 39 AB) and Baltimore's Steve Trachsel (.321 AVG, 1 HR, 28 AB) extremely well, which is encouraging. Others to consider: Aramis Ramirez (6.0), Joe Crede (4.5).
SHORTSTOP: As I mentioned in my "Out of the Box" column, there's no better time to buy in on the Dodgers' Rafael Furcal (5.1) than today. He'll never be cheaper, and with three weekend games against the Reds, he should begin to heat up. Consider that he's a combined 18-for-56 (.321 AVG) lifetime against Bronson Arroyo, Kyle Lohse and Eric Milton. Others to consider: Julio Lugo (5.5), Juan Uribe (4.8).
LEFT FIELD: To put my strategy regarding the Cardinals' Chris Duncan (5.4) in an easy-to-understand way, anytime his team gets at least five games against right-handers in a given week, I'd call him a must-start in all formats. That's the case this week, and take a look at his .313/.995 career rates against them, or his one homer per 12.8 at-bat rate against them. Others to consider: Manny Ramirez (5.7), Pat Burrell (5.0).
CENTER FIELD: Like Furcal, the Cubs' Alfonso Soriano (5.2) is a perfect player to buy in on now because he'll never be cheaper than he is today. Keep in mind he has homers in back-to-back games (through Thursday), going 6-for-10 combined in those contests. Both of those came against the Pirates, the very same team he'll face to begin the week. Others to consider: Aaron Rowand (5.1), Mike Cameron (4.4).
RIGHT FIELD: The Padres' Brian Giles (5.1) has long fared better against right-handers (.306/.983 career) than left-handers (.266/.786), and this week, he'll see six of them in his seven games. Of course, that two of his opponents are the Braves' Tim Hudson and John Smoltz might be of concern, but keep in mind he's 11-for-30 (.367 AVG) combined against them. Others to consider: J.D. Drew (5.3), Andre Ethier (4.5).
DESIGNATED HITTER: The Yankees face the Mariners' and Rangers' bottom-10 staffs this week, and if they miss the Rangers' Kevin Millwood yet again, they won't face a truly "elite" starter at all. That's great news for Hideki Matsui (4.8), who was 5-for-13 in the team's recent three-game series in Texas. Also consider: Aubrey Huff (4.7).
PITCHING STAFF: The St. Louis Cardinals (4.7) host the Rockies, a weak road offense, for three games to begin the week, then they travel to cavernous Petco Park to take on the Padres for three. Others to consider: Detroit Tigers (5.3), Atlanta Braves (4.2).
CATCHER: A bruised finger has limited the Braves' Brian McCann (5.4) of late, helping necessitate the promotion of top prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia. With four games against the Padres to begin the week, and another against Pirates lefty Zach Duke, McCann isn't a great option. Others to avoid: John Buck (4.1), Carlos Ruiz (4.0).
FIRST BASE: You can tell when the Phillies' Ryan Howard (6.1) isn't his usual self; he doesn't hit lefties a lick. This year, he's hitting .135 (5-for-37) with 21 K's against them, and in Week 6, he'll face three of them in six games: Doug Davis, Randy Johnson and Ted Lilly. Others to avoid: Justin Morneau (6.5), Ryan Garko (3.9).
SECOND BASE: The Braves' Kelly Johnson (5.5) can't stay this hot forever, and the aforementioned four games against the Padres, who rank fifth in the majors in ERA (3.53), could be a time when he cools off. He's simply too pricey based on his Week 6 schedule. Others to avoid: Chase Utley (6.8), Luis Castillo (4.1).
THIRD BASE: Most owners don't seem to realize how ordinary a hitter the Orioles' Melvin Mora (5.8) has been since the middle of last season, especially against right-handers. He's at .253/.677 rates against them since last July 1 and faces four righties in seven games. Others to avoid: Eric Chavez (5.4), Scott Rolen (5.0).
SHORTSTOP: The Padres' Khalil Greene (5.6) has struggled with right-handers this season (.226/.722 rates through Thursday), and he'll battle six of them in seven games. He's 3-for-17 combined (.176 AVG) in his career against opponents John Smoltz and Tim Hudson. Others to avoid: Jason Bartlett (4.0), David Eckstein (3.8).
LEFT FIELD: This won't prove an easy week for the Devil Rays, who draw the Orioles' Erik Bedard and the Blue Jays' Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett in their six games. That hurts Carl Crawford (6.6); he's 26-for-107 (.243 AVG) lifetime with a homer combined against them. Others to avoid: Jose Cruz Jr. (4.8), Jay Payton (3.9).
CENTER FIELD: Few teams face as treacherous a schedule as the Royals, who get three games apiece against the Athletics' and White Sox's staffs. David DeJesus (5.4) is a combined 13-for-72 (.181 AVG) against White Sox foes Jon Garland, Mark Buehrle and Javier Vazquez. Others to avoid: Torii Hunter (5.9), Rocco Baldelli (5.4).
RIGHT FIELD: Back problems have been bothering the Twins' Michael Cuddyer (5.5) of late, perhaps leading to his 4-for-23 slump in his past six games (through Thursday). He'll battle the strong White Sox and Tigers staffs, making this a week to avoid him. Others to avoid: Delmon Young (5.7), Jacque Jones (4.4).
DESIGNATED HITTER: The Royals' Mike Sweeney (4.3) might be healthy today, but he's not hitting for much power, with a slugging percentage more than 100 points below his career number. Avoid him this week. Also avoid: Jonny Gomes (3.9).
PITCHING STAFF: The Los Angeles Angels' staff (5.4) is finally healthy, but three games against the Indians followed by a three-game set at hitter-friendly Rangers Ballpark is hardly a pitching-friendly schedule. Sure, the Rangers' bats have been cold of late, but they did score 52 runs combined in nine home games against the Angels in 2006. Others to avoid: Toronto Blue Jays (4.4), San Francisco Giants (4.6).
MONDAY: The Yankees as a team hit the Mariners' Miguel Batista well, at a combined .336 (44-for-131) with a .947 OPS. In other words, you can take your pick of the bunch; I'm taking DH Hideki Matsui (4.8) for this one, though. He's 7-for-12 (.583 AVG) in his career against the right-hander, with one home run and a 1.449 OPS.
TUESDAY: Astros 3B Morgan Ensberg (4.9) has disappointed his owners to date, but here's a matchup tailor-made for success. He's 7-for-13 (.538 AVG) with two home runs lifetime against the Reds' Eric Milton, and .360/.968 against left-handers this year. Plus, he's a career .333 hitter (31-for-93) with 17 RBIs in 27 games at Great American Ball Park.
WEDNESDAY: The Brewers have carved out a perfect role for LF Geoff Jenkins (4.6), spotting him in as a platoon specialist against right-handers. He's at .391/1.115 rates against them this year, and .313/.913 numbers since 2005. In addition, it's a home game (he's at .378/1.155 at home this year) against the shaky Jason Bergmann.
THURSDAY: Reds CF Ken Griffey Jr. (4.6) is on his way back to full health, and there's little denying he's a great hitter of right-handed pitching (.289/.940 rates since 2003) and at Great American (.281/.903 since 2003). He'll face the Astros' Woody Williams, against whom he's a lifetime .419 hitter (13-for-31) with five homers.
FRIDAY: Anytime Angels RF Vladimir Guerrero (6.8) travels to Rangers Ballpark, I say pony up the bucks to get him. He's hitting an unreal .420 (47-for-112) with 12 homers in 28 career games there, and this is the game to get him because he's facing Vicente Padilla, against whom he's 8-for-14 (.571 AVG) with three homers combined in 2006-07.
SATURDAY: Since the start of last year, Giants 2B Ray Durham (5.3) has quietly turned into a masher of left-handed pitching, with .331/1.064 rates and an average of one homer per 13.5 at-bats. He's a .315 career hitter with 22 RBIs in 29 games at Coors Field, and a .462 career hitter (12-for-26) with two homers against the Rockies' Jeff Francis.
SUNDAY: Cubs LF Cliff Floyd (3.6) should pick up the start against Phillies right-hander Freddy Garcia, against whom he's 2-for-4 with two home runs lifetime. Floyd is a fine start against righties, whom he has hit at .282/.850 rates since 2005, and in that same span, he's a .297 (11-for-37) hitter with three homers at Citizens Bank Park.
Tristan H. Cockcroft covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.
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