Daily Notes: Moose and Verlander Debut
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Tim Wakefield, RHP (0-0) versus Robinson Tejeda, RHP (0-0)
Notable Injuries: Mike Timlin, RP (oblique, DL); Eric Gagne, RP (back, DL)
Game Story: A lot of people are excited about Tejeda because he ended the year strongly (2.32 ERA after the All-Star break), but it is misleading and one of the dangers of a small sample size. Tejeda faced only one above-average team in his last nine games: the Detroit Tigers. Don't feel enticed to start him versus Boston. Texas has hit Tim Wakefield around his entire career, so focus on playing fringe players like Hank Blalock, who has two things going for him: He hits well against righties and always has hit significantly better at home.
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Horacio Ramirez, LHP (0-0) versus Paul Byrd, RHP (0-0)
Notable Injuries: Matt Miller, RP (strained forearm, DL); Franklin Gutierrez, OF (hamstring, DL)
Game Story: Jason Michaels didn't fare too well in a full-time role last year because he doesn't hit righties well. Michaels actually had more home runs (five) against lefties than against righties (four) despite 116 fewer at-bats. Look to Michaels for batting average with a little speed and pop thrown in. Cleveland can platoon a fair number of players based on the opposing starter. Casey Blake and Ryan Garko are two such cheap options against left-handers.
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Adam Loewen, LHP (0-0) versus Mike Mussina, RHP (0-0)
Notable Injuries: Ramon Hernandez, C (oblique, day-to-day); Jay Payton, OF (hamstring, DL)
Game Story: The Yankees' lineup is vulnerable against lefties, with up to six left-handed hitters in their everyday lineup. Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada still hit left-handers quite well, but the other regulars all do appreciably worse. Adam Loewen is still a bit of a risk as a starter -- these are the Yankees -- but he also had a 2.63 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in four starts versus New York last season. I'll give Loewen a cautious thumbs up here.
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Gustavo Chacin, LHP (0-0) versus James Shields, RHP (0-0)
Notable Injuries: Greg Norton, 1B (knee, DL)
Game Story: Six of Tampa Bay's everyday players are more proficient against left-handers than right-handers. Considering Gustavo Chacin pitches to contact and had home run problems last year. Elijah Dukes, Dioner Navarro, Ty Wigginton and the rest of Tampa's right-handers have a good matchup here. James Shields was much better at home (3.94 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) than on the road last season, and the only thing keeping him from becoming a solid pitcher is his home-run rate. Toronto isn't great versus right-handers, so I can see a quality start here for Shields.
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Justin Verlander, RHP (0-0) versus Jorge De La Rosa, LHP (0-0)
Notable Injuries: Octavio Dotel, RP (oblique, day-to-day)
Game Story: Last year Craig Monroe struggled against left-handed pitchers (two homers, .734 OPS), but he has fared much better against them in his career (30 HR in 618 AB, .817 OPS). Saying that Jorge De La Rosa isn't one of the better left-handers in the leagues is a nice way to understate it, so Monroe should have a nice day. Placido Polanco and his career .323 average against left-handers is a nice, underrated option.
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Carlos Silva, RHP (0-0) versus Javier Vazquez, RHP (0-0)
Notable Injuries: Jeff Cirillo, DH (knee, day-to-day)
Game Story: Tonight's Game Between Minnesota And Chicago Has Been Postponed Due To Cold Weather. No Makeup Date Has Been Announced.
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Joe Kennedy, LHP (0-0) versus Dustin Moseley, RHP (0-0)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Dustin Moseley is just a stopgap for the Angels here, with little to no potential to speak of. Even though he is a right-hander, right-handed hitters hit him a lot harder in the minors than lefties did. Joe Kennedy is a better reliever than starter, primarily because righties hit him pretty hard. As a result, Shea Hillenbrand is a solid start for average and some power.
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Enrique Gonzalez, RHP (0-0) versus Jerome Williams, RHP (0-0)
Notable Injuries: Carlos Quentin, OF (partially-torn labrum, DL); Jeff DaVanon, OF (shoulder, DL); Cristian Guzman, SS (hamstring, DL); Nook Logan, OF (left foot strain, DL)
Game Story: In 781 career minor league innings, Enrique Gonzalez had a 0.50 home-run rate, which is phenomenal -- especially since it got better the higher in the minors he went. He really doesn't offer much outside of keeping the ball in the park -- his walk rate is merely adequate, and he won't strike out very many people -- but against the Nationals, do you need much? A pitcher's park, a weak-hitting lineup, and a pitcher who prevents extra-base hits spells spot start to me.
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Jamie Moyer, LHP (0-0) versus Sergio Mitre, RHP (0-0)
Notable Injuries:Taylor Tankersley, RP (shoulder, DL); Jeremy Hermida, OF (knee, DL)
Game Story: Sergio Mitre is one of those rotation-filler starters, the type with absolutely zero upside. Unfortunately, Philadelphia really doesn't have a lineup that can punish right-handers, so there's no one out of the ordinary to recommend. Jamie Moyer is a fly-ball pitcher, and he consistently allowed home runs while he was in Seattle. This didn't hurt him much in Philly last year because he made only three starts at Citizens Bank Park (and allowed six homers in the process). Dolphin Stadium is good for his fly-ball tendencies, though, so expect an above-average start.
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Paul Maholm, LHP (0-0) versus Matt Belisle, RHP (0-0)
Notable Injuries: Freddy Sanchez, 2B (knee, DL); Bill Bray, RP (finger, DL)
Game Story: Paul Maholm's one talent in the minors was preventing home runs (career 0.51 HR/9), but outside of that, his peripherals are horrible. To be a good pitcher in the majors, you need to be average or above average in at least two of the three major peripherals, and Maholm fails the test -- he walks too many and rarely strikes anyone out. David Ross and Ryan Freel get most of their value from mashing left-handers, so play them. Edwin Encarnacion is also a great play whenever he is at home (.323, .945 OPS at home last year).
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Oliver Perez, LHP (0-0) versus Mark Redman, LHP (0-0)
Notable Injuries: Willy Aybar, 3B (hand, DL)
Game Story: In 561 career at-bats against left-handers, Craig Wilson has 34 home runs, a .294 average, and a .933 OPS. Atlanta is bright enough to know his strengths, and it seems they start him against left-handers. He started against Cole Hamels on Tuesday and went 0-for-3, but Oliver Perez is no Cole Hamels. Unfortunately for Atlanta, neither is Mark Redman. Mark Redman might not even be Oliver Perez. Lastings Milledge is expected to get his first start today and hits left-handers well. Moises Alou has 23 home runs in his last 418 at-bats against lefties (spread out over four years), and for his career hits .330 against them. Please start this man.
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Rich Hill, LHP (0-0) versus David Bush, RHP (0-0)
Notable Injuries: None
Game Story: If there's one thing Kevin Mench can do, it is mash left-handers. In 551 career at-bats against them, he is hitting .303 with 33 home runs, good for a .935 OPS. Outside of Mench and Bill Hall, though, Milwaukee is a bit short on ammo against lefties. For Chicago, Jacque Jones owns right-handers (2006: 21 HR, 8 SB, .303 AVG in 396 AB) and is a must-start against them; why is he owned in only less than 40 percent of leagues?
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Adam Wainwright, RHP (0-0) versus Wandy Rodriguez, LHP (0-0)
Notable Injuries: Juan Encarnacion, OF (wrist, DL); Scott Spiezio, OF (back, day-to-day); Luke Scott, OF (elbow, day-to-day)
Game Story: Adam Wainwright's first major league start should be a success, even in Minute Maid Park. Right-handers hit .182 against Wainwright last year, which more than negates Minute Maid's extremely favorable hitting environment for right-handers. It also doesn't help Houston that it has only two left-handed hitters, Lance Berkman and Luke Scott. As you can see above, Scott is questionable for today's game with a hyper-extended elbow. Preston Wilson has some severe splits against left-handers in recent seasons and, as a right-handed hitter at Houston, becomes a very nice start today.
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Jason Hirsh, RHP (0-0) versus Greg Maddux, RHP (0-0)
Notable Injuries: None.
Game Story: Jason Hirsh's best quality is keeping the ball down. Despite pitching in the Pacific Coast League, a notorious hitter's league, he had a tidy 0.33 minor league home-run rate in 2006. That is the main reason Colorado acquired him, and when he gets a road start in a pitcher's park like Petco Park, he becomes quite intriguing. Along those lines, Greg Maddux looks to prolong his career in a pitcher's park. Maddux has allowed more home runs as he has aged, but he is still a rather severe groundball pitcher. With Petco helping stem the homers, Maddux should once again be quite valuable in fantasy.
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Brad Penny, RHP (0-0) versus Noah Lowry, LHP (0-0)
Notable Injuries: Rafael Furcal, SS (ankle, DL); Hong-Chih Kuo, SP (shoulder, DL)
Game Story: I'll go out on a limb and proclaim Brad Penny will be lights out tonight. I have always been a big fan of Penny, and I believe he can dominate San Francisco's mediocre right-handed hitters. That still leaves the left-handed ones, but I am counting on AT&T's brutal park effects against left-handers to do the job there. For the Giants, Noah Lowry is intriguing, but might not even be at his best tonight; he admits he is struggling to find his release point. That's enough to scare me off.
Brad Penny, SP, LAD @ San Francisco Giants
Jason Hirsh, SP, COL @ San Diego Padres
Greg Maddux, SP, SD versus Colorado Rockies
Preston Wilson, OF, STL @ Houston Astros
Kevin Mench, OF, MIL versus Chicago Cubs
Craig Wilson, OF, ATL versus New York Mets
Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, CIN versus Pittsburgh Pirates
Enrique Gonzalez, SP, ARI @ Washington Nationals
Javier Vazquez, SP, CHW versus Minnesota Twins
Adam Loewen, SP, BAL @ New York Yankees
Adam Madison is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com and TalentedMrRoto.com. He can be reached at Adam@TalentedMrRoto.com
