Daily Notes: Lincecum not a must start?
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Fausto Carmona, RHP (9-4, 3.78 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) versus
Shaun Marcum, RHP (4-2, 2.86 ERA, 1.08 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Troy Glaus, 3B (foot, questionable)
Game Story: After going six innings and allowing just one earned run versus the Devil Rays, Carmona has quality starts in five of his last six outings. The Blue Jays don't hit well against right-handers -- just 20th in OPS -- and Glaus, one of their better hitters, is questionable for the series with a foot injury. Matt Stairs has stayed hot, and Frank Thomas is still riding his month of June (five home runs, .289 average), but Carmona should make it six out of seven. Marcum has been even more consistent than Carmona since joining the rotation, lasting at least six innings in all but one start and allowing more than three earned runs just once, as well. Marcum's 12 home runs allowed are worrisome. Otherwise he's earned his stats, so continue to ride him.
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John Lackey, RHP (11-5, 3.04 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) versus
Roger Clemens, RHP (2-3, 4.26 ERA, 1.20 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Alex Rodriguez, 3B (hamstring, questionable)
Game Story: The Yankees now have the best offense against right-handers, at least in terms of OPS (.810). Lackey has been slipping a bit recently, with a 5.40 ERA, 16 strikeouts and 12 walks in his last three starts, and none of the teams he faced were nearly as good as the Yankees. It may sound foolish to bench a potential Cy Young winner, but it's the smart decision. The Angels offense was churning in mid-June thanks to players like Casey Kotchman and Gary Matthews Jr. getting hot, but now that those players are struggling -- Kotchman is in a 2-for-31 slump, while Matthews has zero home runs and one stolen base since June 18 -- the offense isn't so imposing, so look for Clemens to log his fifth quality start.
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Boof Bonser, RHP (5-5, 4.76 ERA, 1.54 WHIP) versus
Mark Buehrle, LHP (5-4, 3.26 ERA, 1,11 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Luis Castillo, 2B (legs and hand, questionable)
Game Story: You have to go all the way back to May 29 to find the last time Bonser logged a quality start, but facing the worst offense in the league should help him. The one exception to that may be Josh Fields, who has two home runs in July so far; Bonser has allowed 14 home runs on the season, so that matchup bears watching. The Twins have a .712 OPS against lefties, making this a favorable matchup for Buehrle, but Jason Bartlett shouldn't be forgotten. Bartlett performs better against lefties (.302 average, .775 OPS), but you're not playing him for his bat anyway; he has 17 stolen bases, including 11 since June, and White Sox catcher A.J. Pierzynski isn't the best at gunning down runners.
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Felix Hernandez, RHP (4-4, 4.11 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) versus
Rich Harden, RHP (1-1, 1.17 ERA, 0.91 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Mark Kotsay, OF (illness, questionable)
Game Story: While Hernandez's results haven't been consistent, his peripherals have. Eventually the results are supposed to catch up, and that "eventually" could very well be now. The Athletics are a decidedly-average offense. So, although Dan Johnson (four home runs since June 28) and Eric Chavez (hitting .379 in his last eight games) are heating up, Hernandez shouldn't have much of a problem. This will be Rich Harden's first start since April 9. He probably won't be able to go deep into the game, but he has looked good when he has pitched. He's risky -- four or five innings is probably his maximum, and that doesn't leave much margin for error -- but the Mariners aren't fearsome, either.
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Kason Gabbard, LHP (2-0, 5.79 ERA, 1.86 WHIP) versus
Jeremy Bonderman, RHP (9-1, 3.58 ERA, 1.18 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Kevin Youkilis, 1B (hamstring, questionable)
Game Story: It would be an upset if the Tigers did not give Gabbard one of the ugliest pitching lines on the day. Gabbard has yet to last six innings in his three starts, has an ERA pushing 6.00 and has only 11 strikeouts to go with 14 walks. No team demolishes lefties more thoroughly than the Tigers (.886 OPS); virtually the entire lineup, including Craig Monroe, Marcus Thames and Brandon Inge, hits southpaws pretty hard. Bonderman against the Red Sox is an intriguing matchup, a legitimately great pitcher against a powerhouse offense. Coco Crisp (hitting .367 with four home runs over his last 21 games) and J.D. Drew (hitting .333 since June) are finally pulling their weight.
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Andy Sonnanstine, RHP (1-3, 5.63 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) versus
Gil Meche, RHP (5-6, 3.26 ERA, 1.29 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Sonnanstine has a 6.00 K/BB rate, but a ridiculous eight homers allowed in 38 1/3 innings are holding him back. Luckily, the Royals are tied for last in home runs hit against righties and are 24th in slugging percentage. Sonnanstine does have two quality starts in a row, including one against the Indians. The Royals aren't totally helpless, with Alex Gordon and David DeJesus playing pretty well right now, but they lack any superstars, so give Sonnanstine a go. It's been 18 starts, and Meche still hasn't convinced 70 percent of ESPN owners he is for real. At this point, I'm not sure he can do anything to erase that skepticism. It's no surprise that he gets another recommendation, as the D-Rays are tied for 20th in OPS against righties.
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Erik Bedard, LHP (6-4, 3.67 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) versus
Brandon McCarthy, RHP (4-5, 6.17 ERA, 1.63 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Bedard was surprisingly bombed by the White Sox in his last start, allowing six earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. On Saturday he gets the Rangers, a tougher test (.795 OPS against southpaws, ninth in the majors). I am willing to give Bedard a mulligan; he was arguably the best pitcher in the majors over the previous two months. The Rangers are so injury ravaged that their offense is worse than the season numbers to this point indicate. Michael Young, Sammy Sosa and Victor Diaz are the only players in the lineup have had any success against lefties. McCarthy had a solid stretch of pitching early in May, but then faced the Red Sox and Brewers -- two good offenses -- and then got injured. He only lasted 3 2/3 innings in his return from the DL, so give him more time on your bench to get back into the swing of things.
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Jo-Jo Reyes, LHP (season debut) versus
David Wells, LHP (4-5, 4.16 ERA, 1.45 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: John Smoltz, SP (shoulder, out); Brian McCann, C (knee, questionable)
Game Story: Reyes is nothing to write home about. He's only 22 and is a year or two away from making a consistent contribution in the majors. The Braves are simply trying to get by in the short term. The Padres are noticeably better against lefties (.762 OPS, 15th), but unfortunately Petco Park suppresses a lot of their offense. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Khalil Greene and Mike Cameron are proficient enough against southpaws to start, regardless. Wells has been very good recently -- a 3.18 ERA in his last nine starts -- and is even better at Petco (2.56 ERA, 1.16 WHIP). The Braves struggle against lefties, which makes Wells one of the day's best spot starts.
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Ted Lilly, LHP (7-4, 3.84 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) versus
John Van Benschoten, RHP (0-2, 4.35 ERA, 1.31 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Lilly has been a bit of a mixed bag the past month or so, but if you look closely, you'll see most of his poor starts have been due to poor matchups, like those against the streaking Rockies, the Rangers (an AL team that is solid against lefties) and the Brewers. The Pirates are not a poor matchup. Although Pittsburgh has a small handful of hitters to be worried about -- the streaking Adam LaRoche, lefty masher Xavier Nady and maybe Ryan Doumit, who has two home runs in July -- Lilly should be fine. Van Benschoten has been surprisingly solid considering he had six career starts in the majors a month ago. A 1.20 K/BB ratio is worthy of skepticism, though, and the Cubs have a solid offense, so look elsewhere.
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Jeff Suppan, RHP (8-7, 4.90 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) versus
Jason Simontacchi, RHP (5-6, 6.27 ERA, 1.59 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Bill Hall, OF (ankle, out)
Game Story: Suppan has been rather mediocre. Even against the weaker offenses in the league, his best has only been solid. The Nationals and White Sox have been fighting for the right to be the worst offense in the majors for most of the season and Washington has the slight edge for now -- good news for Suppan. With the long-term slump of Ryan Church, Dmitri Young and Ryan Zimmerman are the only notable Nats. Hopefully Suppan is able to squeeze out more than "solid," but as a spot start, even solid has value. The Brewers offense has been on another tear recently, jump-started by Corey Hart and Ryan Braun. They should be able to handle the loss of Hall. Expect them to beat up on Simontacchi.
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Tom Glavine, LHP (7-6, 4.39 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) versus
Woody Williams, RHP (4-10, 5.47 ERA, 1.49 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Carlos Gomez, OF (hand, DL)
Game Story: Glavine's value has been reduced to a matchup starter backed up by a strong offense, but that's not necessarily a bad thing if you know how to take advantage of it. He's been boom or bust the past month, making the trend more noticeable. Unfortunately, this is one of the bad matchups. The Astros have been pretty solid offensively the past month and are significantly better against lefties. Mark Loretta and Craig Biggio make very nice spot starts, and Mike Lamb is making the most of his regular playing time, too. Williams held the Phillies and Brewers, maybe the two best offenses in the NL, to five earned runs in 13 innings; the Mets are banged up and struggling, so Williams isn't a bad option for NL-only leagues.
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Brandon Webb, RHP (8-6, 3.27 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) versus
Homer Bailey, RHP (2-2, 8.10 ERA, 1.97 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Webb has been more inconsistent this year than last, getting hit a bit harder than he should against marginal offenses. The Reds are one of the league's best against righties -- sixth in OPS with a .780 mark -- so in shallow leagues, Webb isn't the slam-dunk start you may imagine him to be. Scott Hatteberg and Edwin Encarnacion aren't putting up big power numbers but have been above-average regulars for the past month and a half. Performances from role players like Hatteberg and Encarnacion give the Reds lineup a lot of balance. Bailey has been atrocious, especially so considering he was rated as one of the two or three best pitching prospects entering the season. He could go either way in terms of performance, but I would assume it gets worse before it gets better.
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Tim Lincecum, RHP (3-2, 4.64 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) versus
Braden Looper, RHP (6-6, 4.65 ERA, 1.37 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Scott Spiezio, OF (finger, doubtful)
Game Story: The Cardinals have produced enough at the plate to remove themselves from the bottom tier of offenses, and the team now has a .733 OPS against righties, good for 17th in the majors. It wasn't too long ago that they were amongst the worst offenses in the game, but recent surprising contributions from players like Juan Encarnacion and So Taguchi have helped, along with Chris Duncan's continued strong performance (15 homers, .994 OPS) against righties. Lincecum has dominated two very poor offenses in his past two starts, which may entice you to consider him a must-start on Saturday, but there's more risk attached than you may initially suspect. If you take out Looper's numbers in interleague play, he has a 3.03 ERA. When you consider that, his 8.5 percent ownership is much too low.
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Jamie Moyer, LHP (7-6, 4.25 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) versus
Rodrigo Lopez, RHP (4-2, 4.77 ERA, 1.50 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Aaron Rowand, OF (thumb, questionable)
Game Story: Almost any pitcher is a poor matchup against the Rockies the way they are hitting, and Moyer is no exception. While Moyer is normally solid, he has too much against him. With Troy Tulowitzki and Willy Taveras playing well, the Rockies are getting above-average production out of seven spots in the lineup. Moyer's lone problem has been the long ball (15 home runs allowed). The Rockies have a lot of power, and Coors Field only hurts Moyer. Lopez's good luck has run out: He has allowed 14 earned runs in his last two starts, which have lasted a combined 8 2/3 innings. The Phillies have a .803 OPS against righties -- the best in the NL. Greg Dobbs (7 HR, .883 OPS versus righties) has given the Phillies much-needed production out of third base.
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Sergio Mitre, RHP (2-4, 2.88 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) versus
Derek Lowe, RHP (8-7, 2.98 ERA, 1.16 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Mitre has struggled a bit more than he should have in the past month considering his schedule; he has a 5.90 ERA in his past four starts despite not facing an offense ranked higher than 25th in OPS. He shouldn't be written off just yet, though. He lasted six innings in every one of those starts, has only allowed two home runs and still has an ERA under 3.00. And it's not like the Dodgers have reached the level of average in terms of offensive prowess. Outside of James Loney and the surprising Luis Gonzalez (seven home runs, .286 average against righties), they aren't going to sneak up on anyone. Lowe has been one of the league's best pitchers since his poor April, so consider options other than your Marlins hitters.
Matt Stairs, 1B, TOR versus Cleveland Indians
Shaun Marcum, SP, TOR versus Cleveland Indians
Jason Bartlett, SS, MIN @ Chicago White Sox
Dan Johnson, 1B, OAK versus Seattle Mariners
Eric Chavez, 3B, OAK versus Seattle Mariners
Craig Monroe, OF, DET versus Boston Red Sox
Brandon Inge, 3B, DET versus Boston Red Sox
Coco Crisp, OF, BOS @ Detroit Tigers
J.D. Drew, OF, BOS @ Detroit Tigers
Andy Sonnanstine, SP, TB @ Kansas City Royals
Gil Meche, SP, KC versus Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Victor Diaz, OF, TEX @ Baltimore Orioles
Mike Cameron, OF, SD versus Atlanta Braves
Xavier Nady, OF, PIT versus Chicago Cubs
Jeff Suppan, SP, MIL against Washington Nationals
Mark Loretta, SS, HOU versus New York Mets
Craig Biggio, 2B, HOU versus New York Mets
Braden Looper, SP, STL versus San Francisco Giants
Greg Dobbs, 3B, PHI @ Colorado Rockies
Sergio Mitre, SP, FLA @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Please Note that the notable injuries are not meant to be a comprehensive report of each team's disabled list. For brevity, we include only day-to-day injuries or new DL additions for players you might otherwise consider using in these games. Long-term DL or day-to-day injuries to starting pitchers who were not scheduled to appear are omitted.
Adam Madison is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com and TalentedMrRoto.com. He can be reached at Adam@TalentedMrRoto.com
