Daily Notes: Weaver, Bush, Moyer are good plays
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Jason Hammel, RHP (1-0, 6.11 ERA, 1.92 WHIP) versus
Matt DeSalvo, RHP (1-3, 5.87 ERA, 1.87 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Hammel and DeSalvo are truly as bad as their ERAs indicate --if not worse. Hammel is making his first start of the year, but most pitchers are significantly worse starting than relieving. The Yankees are dominating right-handed pitching (.817 OPS, tops in the majors); even Melky Cabrera (.365 in July) is hitting. DeSalvo has struggled against every team he has faced besides the Mariners, making more marginal D-Rays players like Delmon Young and Jonny Gomes better options. With each team's respective fifth starters out there for the first game of the doubleheader, it should be a high scoring affair.
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Jeff Weaver, RHP (2-7, 6.82 ERA, 1.72 WHIP) versus
Josh Towers, RHP (4-6, 5.40 ERA, 1.33 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Weaver had a sub-2.00 ERA since June before being pounded by the Tigers in his last outing, but the Tigers pound everyone. The Blue Jays are more manageable (20th in OPS versus righties), although Aaron Hill is hitting .389 in his past nine games and Overbay is hitting .357 since returning from the DL. Weaver's capable of a quality start, but one wouldn't be surprised to see Weaver revert to his former untenable form. Towers' 56-12 K-BB ratio may seem intriguing, but the 15 homers he has allowed and his .800 OPS against shows that hitters have no problem teeing off on him -- good news for Mariners like Raul Ibanez and Jose Guillen.
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John Danks, LHP (6-6, 4.81 ERA, 1.49 WHIP) versus
Kason Gabbard, LHP (3-0, 3.38 ERA, 1.19 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: J.D. Drew, OF (hamstring, day-to-day)
Game Story: Danks' 1.70 home run rate (per nine innings) has been the biggest problem in his rookie season; in all but three of his 17 starts he has allowed at least one home run. Moreover, he's allowed 12 of his 17 bombs on the road, and he faces a tough team in the Red Sox in this one. Coco Crisp and Julio Lugo are both hitting well and have also been significantly better against southpaws, making them must-starts. Gabbard's complete-game shutout against the Royals gives him his second great start in a row -- he limited the lefty-bashing Tigers to two runs in 6 1/3 innings as well. He still can't get a recommendation against the White Sox, who are now hitting (.839 OPS in July, third). Josh Fields is a good platoon option; he makes mincemeat out of lefties (.349).
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Jorge De La Rosa, LHP (7-10, 5.25 ERA, 1.59 WHIP) versus
Justin Verlander, RHP (11-3, 3.26 ERA, 1.16 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Curtis Granderson, OF (back, questionable); Placido Polanco, 2B (knee, questionable); Marcus Thames, 1B (hamstring, DL); Jorge De La Rosa, SP (thumb, questionable)
Game Story: The Tigers are still the best offensive team in the majors against lefties (.856 OPS) and should have little trouble roughing up De La Rosa. He has a 3.46 ERA and 1.15 WHIP against Detroit in two starts earlier this season, but both of those took place early in April, when the Tigers were struggling immensely. Craig Monroe becomes a good option (.311 with four home runs against lefties) along with Brandon Inge (.344). Verlander makes the Royals poor plays for the day; in two previous starts Verlander has a 2.37 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.
| Tampa Bay Devil Rays @ New York Yankees | |
J.P. Howell, LHP (1-3, 6.62 ERA, 1.81 WHIP) versus
Kei Igawa, LHP (2-2, 6.97 ERA, 1.66 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: The Yankees' lone offensive weakness is left-handers -- their .737 OPS against them is just 20th in the majors. Howell, however, is a weak southpaw (career 5.99 ERA) so it's easy to suspect the Yankees will hit him well nonetheless -- every hitter can hit a bad pitcher well. The Devil Rays are great against lefties, with the vast majority of their lineup -- Jonny Gomes, Akinori Iwamura, Brendan Harris, Ty Wigginton -- crushing southpaws. With every starter pitching in this doubleheader looking primed for a poor performances, practically every regular on either team is a good start.
 | Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesotas Twins |  |
Jered Weaver, RHP (6-5, 3.36 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) versus
Boof Bonser, RHP (5-6, 4.68 ERA, 1.48 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Torii Hunter, OF (hamstring, questionable); Michael Cuddyer, OF (thumb, DL)
Game Story: Weaver has a 2.11 ERA since June, though a lot of it can be attributed to a soft schedule. Weaver faces the Twins for a second time. In his first start against the Twins Weaver lasted seven innings and allowed just one run. The Twins are an average offensive club when at full strength, but they could take a significant hit since both Cuddyer is and Hunter may be absent for Saturday. Judging off recent history, Weaver should put in another above-average start. Bonser is facing the Angels at a good time; the decline of Gary Matthews Jr. (.701 OPS in July), Casey Kotchman (.556), Reggie Willits (.508) and Orlando Cabrera (.340) is severely hampering the team's offense.
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Cliff Lee, LHP (5-6, 5.67 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) versus
Jamey Wright, RHP (3-2, 4.31 ERA, 1.60 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Franklin Gutierrez, OF (back, questionable); Michael Young, SS (personal, questionable)
Game Story: Lee has been victimized by poor matchups recently, but he should finally cash in with a quality start against the Rangers. Lee has had an unusually tough schedule, but only Sammy Sosa, Michael Young and Mark Teixeira are the only Rangers who are competent against lefties -- and Young is questionable. The Indians offense should have no trouble roughing up the mediocre Wright, who's still working with more walks (18) than strikeouts (14). Both Casey Blake (three home runs in July) and Ryan Garko make good plays while they are hot.
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Steve Trachsel, RHP (5-6, 4.95 ERA, 1.51 WHIP) versus
Dan Haren, RHP (10-3, 2.33 ERA, 1.03 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Eric Chavez, 3B (back, questionable)
Game Story: Trachsel had an 8.96 ERA in his past six starts before he went on the DL on June 30. Although the Athletics have really struggled offensively of late, Trachsel still cannot be recommended -- the Padres, Diamondbacks and Nationals, three weak offensive teams, all did well against Trachsel. Dan Johnson, Travis Buck and Jack Cust are three A's who could take advantage of Trachsel's six home runs allowed in his past 26 1/3 innings. No Orioles can be safely recommended against Haren, who is 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA in two starts against the Orioles this season.
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Micah Owings, RHP (5-5, 4.91 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) versus
Rich Hill, LHP (6-6, 3.70 ERA, 1.12 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Cliff Floyd, OF (neck, questionable); Derrek Lee, 1B (suspension, out); Daryle Ward, 1B (calf, questionable)
Game Story: Owings has really struggled the past month with an ERA of 7.88 since June 15, which makes him a tough sell even against the Cubs depleted lineup. Mark DeRosa will likely slide over to first to replace Lee if Ward can't go, leaving Mike Fontenot at second and Ryan Theriot at short. Toss in the struggling Jacque Jones (.244) and the newly-arrived Jason Kendall (.222) in the lineup and you can see the Cubs are missing power, so it wouldn't be too surprising to see Owings pitch better than recent weeks. The D-backs are the worst team in the majors against lefties (.648 OPS, 44 points below 29th), so as you can imagine not much should be expected from the lineup.
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Rodrigo Lopez, RHP (5-2, 4.46 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) versus
Mike Bacsik, LHP (2-6, 4.87 ERA, 1.49 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Lopez had a surprisingly great performance -- he previously was in a three-start stretch during which he had a 11.59 ERA -- against the Brewers in his last start, lasting seven innings while allowing just one hit and one run. The fact that he is pitching against the lowly Nationals means that you can probably squeeze a spot start out of Lopez on Saturday. The same cannot be said of Bacsik; the Rockies have been amongst the majors' best hitting teams the past two months. Troy Tulowitzki particularly destroys lefties (.341) and has nine of his 11 home runs since June.
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Jorge Sosa, RHP (7-4, 3.84 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) versus
Brad Penny, RHP (11-1, 2.33 ERA, 1.16 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: The Dodgers have been on fire in July (.872 OPS) as the performances of Andre Ethier (.444), Rafael Furcal (.329) and Russell Martin (.392) have buoyed them. Matt Kemp and Wilson Betemit have also been superb, although their playing time is limited as more bodies than available spots fight for at-bats. That makes Sosa a poor choice to follow up his quality start against the Padres with another good effort. The Mets exploded for 13 runs on Thursday, and have averaged eight runs scored in their past three games -- a good indicator for their offense. Ruben Gotay appears to have taken Jose Valentin's starting second base job and is hitting .354, and Carlos Delgado has four home runs and is hitting .367 in July; Penny may be facing the Mets at the worst time.
 | San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Bucks |  |
Tim Lincecum, RHP (4-2, 4.37 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) versus
Dave Bush, RHP (8-7, 4.84 ERA, 1.31 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Lincecum's recent performances against the Cubs and Cardinals have shown he can perform well against tougher competition than the Padres and Diamondbacks. Although the Brewers are sixth in OPS on the season, they are a middle-of-the-pack 13th in July. Only Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder have played particularly well this month, so Lincecum is facing a normally-great offense at the right time. Bush had another plus-start against the Diamondbacks in his last outing -- giving him a 3.31 ERA in his past nine starts (51 2/3 innings). The Giants are not far from helpless against right-handed pitching, so expect another strong start from the surging Bush.
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Bobby Livingston, LHP (2-0, 3.18 ERA, 1.71 WHIP) versus
Byung-Hyun Kim, RHP (4-5, 5.18 ERA, 1.60 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Alex Gonzalez, SS (bereavement list, questionable)
Game Story: Livingston managed to hold the Braves to two runs in five innings despite allowing 10 base runners -- that outing was more flukish than good. The Marlins are a poor matchup for Livingston, with many hitters -- like Miguel Olivo (.338), Mike Jacobs (.349) -- who tee off on lefties; even the slumping Dan Uggla destroys lefties (.911 OPS, seven homers). Although Jeremy Hermida doesn't have striking platoon splits, he is hitting well in July (.333). Pass on Kim, too, as the Reds hit righties well. Scott Hatteberg has seven home runs and is hitting .312 against right-handers.
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Braden Looper, RHP (7-7, 4.60 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) versus
Buddy Carlyle, RHP (4-2, 4.00 ERA, 1.13 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Scott Rolen, 3B (shoulder, questionable)
Game Story: Now that Andruw Jones is on fire, the Braves' offense has climbed back to above-average levels on the month (.800 OPS, 10th in the majors). Willie Harris has collapsed in July (.171), and it will be interesting to see if the Braves elect to play Matt Diaz on a full-time basis anytime soon. Overall the lineup is too tough to expect Looper to have much success. Carlyle has been a fine rotational fill-in for the Braves, although his eight home runs allowed are worrisome. The Cards (.832 OPS in July) are on fire, though; Chris Duncan (.297 with 17 homers versus righties) and Juan Encarnacion (a .333 batting average with a .976 OPS in July) are two underrated players who are really performing.
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Wandy Rodriguez, LHP (6-8, 4.33 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) versus
Paul Maholm, LHP (5-12, 4.68 ERA, 1.34 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Lance Berkman, 1B (hand, questionable)
Game Story: Rodriguez is a good matchup against the Pirates, who are struggling -- outside of Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez and Xavier Nady. That trio is also hitting left-handers rather well, so they are good starts on Saturday. Otherwise Rodriguez has been solid for most of the year and deserves a spot start. Maholm has quietly amassed a 3.06 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in his past seven starts, and had a complete-game shutout against the Astros earlier in the season. There's no reason to think Maholm can't add another quality start to his resume against a solid but unspectacular Astros lineup.
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Jamie Moyer, LHP (7-8, 4.99 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) versus
David Wells, LHP (5-5, 4.15 ERA, 1.45 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Two offenses going in different directions this month, as the Phillies (.918 OPS) have been the most potent offense in July, while the Padres (.650) have been even more anemic than usual. Moyer will assuredly rebound from his recent poor performances -- 10.05 ERA his past three starts -- as the Padres are also the worst-hitting team in baseball at home. The Phillies are much weaker against lefties, and Wells has been on a roll the past five weeks. Pat Burrell will help that now that he's hitting -- four home runs and a .478 average in July -- but Wells has a 2.77 ERA at home, too.
Raul Ibanez, OF, SEA @ Toronto Blue Jays
Jose Guillen, OF, SEA @ Toronto Blue Jays
Coco Crisp, OF, BOS versus Chicago White Sox
Josh Fields, 3B, CHW @ Boston Red Sox
Craig Monroe, OF, DET versus Kansas City Royals
Brandon Inge, 3B, DET versus Kansas City Royals
Jonny Gomes, OF, TB @ New York Yankees
Boof Bonser, SP, MIN versus Los Angeles Angels
Cliff Lee, SP, CLE @ Texas Rangers
Ryan Garko, 1B, CLE @ Texas Rangers
Jack Cust, OF, OAK versus Baltimore Orioles
Rodrigo Lopez, SP, COL versus Washington Nationals
Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL versus Washington Nationals
Andre Ethier, OF, LAD versus New York Mets
Dave Bush, SP, MIL versus San Francisco Giants
Miguel Olivo, C, FLA versus Cincinnati Reds
Scott Hatteberg, 1B, CIN @ Florida Marlins
Chris Duncan, OF, STL @ Atlanta Braves
Juan Encarnacion, OF, STL @ Atlanta Braves
Wandy Rodriguez, SP, HOU @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Paul Maholm, SP, PIT versus Houston Astros
Jamie Moyer, SP, PHI @ San Diego Padres
David Wells, SP, SD versus Philadelphia Phillies
Please Note that the notable injuries are not meant to be a comprehensive report of each team's disabled list. For brevity, we include only day-to-day injuries or new DL additions for players you might otherwise consider using in these games. Long-term DL or day-to-day injuries to starting pitchers who were not scheduled to appear are omitted.
Adam Madison is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com and TalentedMrRoto.com. He can be reached at Adam@TalentedMrRoto.com
