Daily Notes: Jon Lester Is Back
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Jon Lester, LHP (Season debut) versus
Jake Westbrook, RHP (1-5, 6.07 ERA, 1.53 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: David Ortiz, DH (shoulder, questionable)
Game Story: This will be Lester's first start in the majors in 11 months; he is replacing Julian Tavarez in the rotation. Lester had control problems (4.04 BB/9) in Triple-A this season and shouldn't be used. For the Indians, Franklin Gutierrez, who platoons against lefties and is hitting .386 against them, isn't a bad option. Ryan Garko is in the midst of a 15-game hitting streak, so start him. Westbrook has a 4.48 ERA in his past eight outings, so he is improving, but that won't be quite enough to conquer the Red Sox. Coco Crisp is hitting a ridiculous .370 in 29 games and the Sox as a team have an .833 OPS on the month.
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Johan Santana, LHP (11-7, 2.65 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) versus
Shaun Marcum, RHP (5-4, 3.73 ERA, 1.17 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Santana has been virtually unstoppable of late with a 1.89 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in his past eight starts, including outings against the Tigers (twice), Yankees, Braves and Marlins. Even though the Blue Jays are now third in the majors when it comes to hitting lefties (.832 OPS), Santana should obviously be seen as an exception. You still may want to start Aaron Hill, though, who is hitting .389 in his past nine games and loves lefties (.872 OPS). Marcum has bounced back from a blowup against the Indians to turn in two quality starts in a row against both the Red Sox and Yankees on the road. The Twins are a much more benign threat, weakened further by the loss of Michael Cuddyer to the disabled list.
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Roger Clemens, RHP (2-4, 3.88 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) versus
Odalis Perez, LHP (5-8, 5.84 ERA, 1.65 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: With most of the Royals' core players struggling, Clemens, who has only allowed one earned run in three of his last four starts, is a safe bet for a strong performance. While his strikeouts (6.0 K/9) are lacking, the other ratios (2.64 BB/9, 0.70 HR/9) show Clemens can maintain his current performance. Billy Butler -- hitting .436 in July with two home runs and a 6-6 K-BB ratio -- is Kansas City's only standout at the plate. Perez has faced a brutal schedule recently, so it's tough to know what exactly to make of his 7.47 ERA in July. Few Yankee hitters handle lefties well; their .737 team OPS against them attests to (20th). Still, one would like to see some positive indicators before throwing Perez out there.
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Andrew Miller, LHP (5-3, 3.18 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) versus
Mark Buehrle, LHP (7-5, 2.91 ERA, 1.12 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: The White Sox offense has improved substantially this month; their July .806 team OPS places them eighth in the majors -- ahead of such powerhouse offenses as the Tigers (10th) and Rockies (11th). Jermaine Dye has four home runs since the break, Paul Konerko three, and Jim Thome two; A.J. Pierzynski and Rob Mackowiak both have averages over .400 since the break as well. Since Miller is a lefty, Josh Fields is worthy of a start; he is hitting .370 versus southpaws. Buehrle hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in eight starts, and he has lasted at least seven innings in all but one of those. Still, no team hits lefties harder than the Tigers, and both Craig Monroe and Brandon Inge are hitting nearly .330 against left-handers.
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Horacio Ramirez, LHP (5-2, 5.89 ERA, 1.71 WHIP) versus
Kevin Millwood, RHP (6-8, 5.50 ERA, 1.60 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Sammy Sosa, OF (hand, questionable); Kenny Lofton, OF (foot, questionable)
Game Story: Ramirez lasted seven innings and allowed just two runs in his first start off the disabled list, and he gets another favorable matchup when he faces the Rangers on Monday. Only three Rangers regulars have an OPS higher than .689 against lefties: Brad Wilkerson (.983), Sammy Sosa (1.007) and Mark Teixeira (1.096). Ramirez is a good bet to net a quality start and makes a good spot start as a result. Millwood has a 2.53 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in his last six starts, which makes him an above-average option against a Mariners team that has struggled hitting righties this month.
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Chad Gaudin, RHP 8-5, 3.39 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) versus
Bartolo Colon, RHP (6-5, 6.38 ERA, 1.63 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Nick Swisher, OF (shoulder, day-to-day); Gary Matthews Jr., OF (wrist, questionable)
Game Story: Gaudin has a 5.24 ERA since June 8 and is allowing nearly six free passes per nine innings in that span. He's lucky not to have been bombed yet, but it's simply a matter of time until he does -- most of his peripheral statistics are quite poor. Unfortunately, the Angels -- owner's the majors' worst OPS this month (.611) -- aren't in a position to capitalize on Gaudin's mistakes. The Athletics are in a similar position as well; they have only been slightly better than the Angels this month. That makes Colon and Gaudin spot starters simply because their opposition is even worse than they are.
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Chris Capuano, LHP (5-6, 4.96 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) versus
Aaron Harang, RHP (10-2, 3.63 ERA, 1.22 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Alex Gonzalez, SS (restricted list, available)
Game Story: Capuano has a 7.02 ERA since accumulating a 2.31 ERA in his first seven starts. It's easy to see him as a potential spot start for Monday; the Reds are weak against left-handers (.699 OPS, 28th) and hitting poorly on the month (.716 OPS, 21st), but quality of opponent has not mattered much to Capuano. He's put in poor performances against the Twins, Dodgers, Rangers, Pirates and Nationals in his past 10 starts, so you never quite know when you can play him. Harang, on the other hand, has been awesome, with nine quality starts in his past 11 outings. The Brewers are in the midst of a rare hitting slump, so Harang should make that 10 out of 12.
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Chad Billingsley, RHP (6-0, 3.56 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) versus
Chris Sampson, RHP (7-6, 4.15 ERA, 1.29 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Lance Berkman, 1B (hand, questionable)
Game Story: Billingsley has a 4.17 ERA and 1.39 WHIP and has allowed six homers since becoming a starter, so his season stats belie how mediocre he has been since joining the rotation. That kind of inefficiency makes him a risky option against the Astros. Mike Lamb is hitting .330 since June with eight home runs and should be in the lineup on Monday. The Dodgers have been hitting everything this month (.331 average) and Sampson pitches to contact (3.91 K-9) and gets hit hard (.463 SLG allowed); sounds like a bad matchup to me.
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Greg Maddux, RHP (7-7, 4.17 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) versus
Jeff Francis, LHP (10-5, 4.07 ERA, 1.36 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: The Rockies are, as one would expect, a great-hitting team at home (.829 OPS) while Maddux, as one would expect, has severe home /away splits (3.65 ERA and 1.14 WHIP at home; 4.74 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road). Now that the Rockies have finally heated up on offense, Troy Tulowitzki is the last underrated hitter on the team; he's hitting .287 with nine home runs and four steals since June 1. Francis has allowed six earned runs in three of his last five starts, but has only allowed two runs combined in the other two. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Khalil Greene and Mike Cameron all hit southpaws hard, making Francis maybe a tad riskier than one would like, but he is otherwise an above-average start for the day.
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Dontrelle Willis, LHP (7-9, 5.13 ERA, 1.65 WHIP) versus
Doug Davis, LHP (6-10, 4.13 ERA, 1.71 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Hanley Ramirez, SS (shoulder, questionable)
Game Story: Willis' bloated ERA is no fluke; he is on pace for career worsts in strikeout (6.24 K/9), walk (4.09) and home run (1.11) rates. The D-backs are one of the few teams Willis is actually a safe start against; they have both one of the worst offenses in the majors this month (.649 OPS, 28th) and particularly struggle against southpaws (.646, 30th). When you keep in mind the Diamondbacks play in a hitters' park, this could now be the worst offense in baseball. Davis has faced some regression to the mean recently, with a 6.52 ERA in his past eight starts. Enough Marlins hit lefties well (Miguel Olivo, Mike Jacobs, Cody Ross) or are hitting well in general (Jeremy Hermida) to warrant benching Davis.
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John Smoltz, RHP (9-5, 2.88 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) versus
Matt Cain, RHP (3-11, 3.87 ERA, 1.38 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Smoltz should have no trouble slicing through the Giants; after Barry Bonds, Ryan Klesko has the highest OPS on the team against righties (.804). No other player has higher than a .722 mark. Cain has an ERA over six since his seven-inning, one-run outing against the Red Sox on June 16. Now that Andruw Jones and Brian McCann are hitting, the only Braves regular who is performing decidedly below average is Scott Thorman. The team's .815 OPS this month is legit, making this lineup a very dangerous one. That, combined with the recent poor play of Cain, means you should look for a different starter.
Ryan Garko, 1B, CLE versus Boston Red Sox
Coco Crisp, OF, BOS @ Cleveland Indians
Shaun Marcum, SP, TOR versus Minnesota Twins
Billy Butler, 1B, KC versus New York Yankees
Josh Fields, 3B, CHW versus Detroit Tigers
Craig Monroe, OF, DET @ Chicago White Sox
Brandon Inge, 3B, DET @ Chicago White Sox
Horacio Ramirez, SP, SEA @ Texas Rangers
Brad Wilkerson, 1B, TEX versus Seattle Mariners
Kevin Millwood, SP, TEX versus Seattle Mariners
Chad Gaudin, SP, OAK @ Los Angeles Angels
Bartolo Colon, SP, LAA versus Oakland Athletics
Mike Lamb, 3B, HOU versus Los Angeles Dodgers
Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL versus San Diego PAdres
Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, SD @ Colorado Rockies
Khalil Greene, SS, SD @ Colorado Rockies
Mike Cameron, OF, SD @ Colorado Rockies
Jeff Francis, SP, COL versus San Diego Padres
Jeremy Hermida, OF, FLA @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Please Note that the notable injuries are not meant to be a comprehensive report of each team's disabled list. For brevity, we include only day-to-day injuries or new DL additions for players you might otherwise consider using in these games. Long-term DL or day-to-day injuries to starting pitchers who were not scheduled to appear are omitted.
Adam Madison is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com and TalentedMrRoto.com. He can be reached at Adam@TalentedMrRoto.com
