Daily Notes: Bannister, Arroyo, Carlyle solid plays
See projections for every game: Tomorrow's box scores, today!
 |  |
Josh Towers, RHP (5-7, 5.08 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) versus
Jason Hammel, RHP (1-1, 5.33 ERA, 1.59 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Towers has pretty much lived up to his ERA in recent weeks, and though most of the time you would think a pitcher with a K/BB ratio of better than 4.0 would be able to keep his ERA below 5.00, Towers' home run rate (16 in 88 2/3 innings) has been inexcusable. The Devil Rays struggled to start off the month, but have been strong of late, as evidenced by their .813 OPS since the All-Star break. Considering they have hit 22 home runs in that time frame, sixth in the majors, Towers represents too much risk. Hammel gets a good matchup, facing the Blue Jays, who have struggled mightily against righties, especially lately. But Hammel wasn't even holding his own as a reliever, and his résumé isn't very impressive.
 |  |
Nate Robertson, LHP (6-8, 5.08 ERA, 1.58 WHIP) versus
Dallas Braden, LHP (1-6, 5.53 ERA, 1.45 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Eric Chavez, 3B (back, questionable)
Game Story: Robertson has allowed 12 earned runs in his past two starts, spanning 11 2/3 innings, and his numbers after the All-Star break for his career have always been significantly worse than his play earlier in the season. Even though the Athletics aren't intimidating -- they were the worst offense in July (.677 OPS), in fact -- Robertson plays worse away from home, and with the return of Travis Buck, the A's do have a trio of hitters in Mark Ellis, Mike Piazza and Buck who can provide some offense alongside Nick Swisher. For the Tigers, Brandon Inge is a good start against a mediocre lefty; he is still hitting .333 against them. But Craig Monroe can no longer be counted on, even against lefties, which he normally mashes.
 |  |
Steve Trachsel, RHP (5-7, 5.26 ERA, 1.58 WHIP) versus
Julian Tavarez, LHP (6-8, 5.08 ERA, 1.52 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Trachsel has allowed at least four earned runs in seven of his last eight starts, a startling streak of consistently poor pitching. Suffice to say that Trachsel's "value" is held in what he can do for your Red Sox hitters. J.D. Drew's hitting .196 since the break, so Trachsel's coming along at the right time for him. Coco Crisp has kept up his hot hitting through all of July (.323) and could net his first home run since the break facing Trachsel. The Orioles have surprisingly been hitting well recently, hitting .300 as a team since the break; Corey Patterson (.388) and Ramon Hernandez (.341) have been setting the pace. Kason Gabbard was traded, and it looks like Julian Tavarez would be the most sensible fill-in. With an ERA north of five, that doesn't mean he should fill in for your team.
 |  |
John Danks, LHP (6-7, 4.83 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) versus
Andy Pettitte, LHP (6-7, 4.11 ERA, 1.45 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Derek Jeter, SS (shoulder, probable)
Game Story: Danks has been a run-of-the-mill pitcher in his rookie season, with the home run being his Achilles' heel. He has allowed a home run in 15 of his 19 starts. The Yankees go from being the majors' best offense when facing righties to precariously weak against southpaws. But as you go through the lineup, enough hitters are hitting well now that starting Danks would be risky; even Melky Cabrera hit .373 in July. Pettitte was bombed in his first two outings of the month, but has since rebounded with a 3.57 ERA in his past four starts. The White Sox are a bit better against lefties, with help from Josh Fields (.385 against them), but they have cooled off recently, enough to feel confident in playing Pettittte.
 |  |
John Rheinecker, LHP (1-0, 3.18 ERA, 1.68 WHIP) versus
Paul Byrd, RHP (9-4, 4.40 ERA, 1.35 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Rheinecker hasn't made a start since July 24, having skipped his turn in the rotation, but that last start was highly effective as he lasted seven innings and failed to allow an earned run. That was more of a fluke than anything, though; a 28-year-old with a career 5.49 ERA in 82 innings isn't a good option. The ineffectiveness of Travis Hafner has hurt the Indians, but Ryan Garko (.382 in July) is still on fire, and Franklin Gutierrez (four home runs, .340 average) has been murder against lefties. Byrd logged his third month with a sub-4.00 ERA in July, and in two earlier starts against the Rangers he had two wins, a 3.86 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Against a Rangers offense now permanently minus Mark Teixeira, that's good enough.
 |  |
Brian Bannister, RHP (7-6, 3.42 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) versus
Boof Bonser, RHP (5-7, 4.72 ERA, 1.48 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Bannister had a 5.68 ERA in five starts from June 17 to July 16, but has bounced back in his past two, allowing one earned run in 14 innings. Toss in his low walk and home run rates and Bannister can again be taken seriously as a spot start against light-hitting teams. The Twins had four players with an OBP of at least .350, but one of them is hurt (Michael Cuddyer) and they just traded another (Luis Castillo). With production from so few hitters, Bannister should further distance himself from that poor stretch and do well. Bonser has allowed too many home runs (17) to be used, and though it seems only Alex Gordon and Billy Butler are playing well right now for the Royals, their .764 OPS in July still ranks them 13th.
 |  |
Jered Weaver, RHP (7-5, 3.68 ERA, 1.43 WHIP) versus
Felix Hernandez, RHP (7-6, 3.85 ERA, 1.44 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Weaver has had a soft schedule recently, which allowed him to accumulate a 2.18 ERA during a seven-start streak from June 4 to July 21 before he ran into the Tigers. That suggests a rebound is in the cards against the Mariners, who like the rest of the AL West were unable to hit much of anything in July (.696 OPS). Hernandez has a 9.31 ERA in two starts against the Angels this year, but those weren't the Angels of July, the ones who slugged .365. King Felix's peripherals have slipped in the past month, but he had five quality starts in July, including four starts in which he allowed two runs or fewer.
 |  |
Bronson Arroyo, RHP (4-11, 4.33 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) versus
John Lannan, LHP (0-0, 8.31 ERA, 1.85 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Arroyo has been superb in his past seven starts, averaging nearly seven innings per start and amassing a 2.61 ERA in that span. Six out of seven of those starts have been quality ones; it's just making it easy on him to face the Nationals, who have the worst offense in baseball (.679 OPS). Lannan has been rushed into the majors -- he started out the season in Single-A -- and didn't do well in his first start, albeit against the Phillies. It's doubtful he does much better against the Reds, either. Lannan's high walk rate and low strikeout rate should spell doom on any major league success.
 |  |
Josh Fogg, RHP (5-6, 4.84 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) versus
Byung-Hyun Kim, RHP (5-4, 4.72 ERA, 1.53 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: The Marlins have been scorching from the plate as they had a team OPS of .851 in July, third in the majors. You don't even have to mention the obvious names: Mike Jacobs (three home runs, .311 since the break), Jeremy Hermida (.365) and Josh Willingham (four home runs, .283) have all been superb, while Dan Uggla, who struggled earlier in the month, got his groove back. Fogg is definitely not an option as a result. Kim's propensity to get blown up -- 26 of his 40 earned runs have occurred in five starts -- makes him a hazardous play, but that risk may be worth taking on Wednesday. The Rockies have just a .706 team OPS since the break, are a worse team on the road and Kim should receive run support.
 |  |
Braden Looper, RHP (8-8, 4.85 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) versus
Tony Armas, LHP (0-3, 6.93 ERA, 1.72 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Looper has allowed at least six earned runs in five of his past 12 starts, but has a 3.38 ERA in his other seven starts. Do you really think the Pirates are liable to score four-plus runs off Looper? Their presumed best three hitters, Jason Bay, Adam LaRoche and Xavier Nady, have all resumed struggling since the All-Star break; indeed, the team has the worst OPS in the majors since the break by 31 points. It has been a couple of months since Armas has started, so one deserves a reminder of just how horrible Armas was as a starter: He averaged fewer than four innings a start, allowed six home runs and had an 8.60 ERA. Spring to start all your Cardinals, Chris Duncan and Juan Encarnacion especially.
 |  |
Wandy Rodriguez, LHP (7-9, 4.28 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) versus
Buddy Carlyle, RHP (5-3, 4.25 ERA, 1.22 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Rodriguez has been a pleasant surprise for the Astros, but he's also been fairly inconsistent, allowing four runs or more in six starts. With the Braves' addition of Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann is the only regular with an OPS below .785 against lefties, and even he has picked it up lately. Matt Diaz has maintained his strong split against lefties, too (.354/.380/.523 line). Carlyle has a 2.90 ERA in his past six starts, and although the schedule has been soft -- the Nationals, Padres, Pirates and Giants were four teams he faced -- the Astros aren't tough either. The loss of Hunter Pence hurts, and if Ty Wigginton (.736 OPS versus righties) gets at-bats against righties over Mike Lamb, that's another unfavorable trade-off in the lineup.
 |  |
Oliver Perez, LHP (9-7, 2.84 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) versus
Dave Bush, RHP (8-8, 4.91 ERA, 1.33 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Carlos Beltran, OF (oblique, DL); Paul Lo Duca, C (hamstring, questionable)
Game Story: Now here is an interesting matchup: Perez has maintained his numbers during the course of the year, including a 1.40 ERA in July, but the Brewers have an .846 OPS against lefties, second in the majors. To make matters more interesting, the Brewers have struggled a lot offensively recently, as their .710 OPS since the break is 22nd. The tiebreaker could be the Brewers' play at home; their OPS is 51 points higher at home, and the Brewers are an MLB-best 36-17 at home. Don't forget Kevin Mench, who still destroys southpaws (six homers, .325 average). Bush has regressed recently -- six home runs in July -- but just as the Mets gained Moises Alou, they lost Beltran. It's close, but Bush's home stats blow away his road numbers, which pushes it into his favor.
 |  |
Jamie Moyer, LHP (9-8, 4.75 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) versus
Rich Hill, LHP (6-6, 3.59 ERA, 1.17 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Shane Victorino, OF (calf, questionable); Michael Bourn, OF (ankle, questionable)
Game Story: Moyer shut down the Pirates as was expected of him, or any decent pitcher against the Pirates. The Cubs are actually really poor against lefties, with their .710 OPS putting them tied for 25th. Jacque Jones, Cliff Floyd and Mark DeRosa have all struggled against lefties, and when you toss in Jason Kendall and the pitcher, you're left with over half the lineup offering poor production. Matt Murton, who was recently recalled from Triple-A, would help the cause, but with the way the Cubs have utilized him, his starts are guesswork at this point. Hill has allowed five runs in his past 19 innings (three starts), but the Phillies were the first team of the season to have an OPS north of .900 in a month. Start at your own risk.
 |  |
Micah Owings, RHP (5-5, 5.13 ERA, 1.53 WHIP) versus
David Wells, LHP (5-7, 5.02 ERA, 1.54 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Owings had a truly horrible July, allowing six home runs in 21 2/3 innings and nearly two baserunners an inning. His five starts averaged fewer than 4 1/3 innings, so even against the Padres, the worst offensive team in the majors at home, Owings is pretty risky. Wells was great from May 15 to July 16, dropping his ERA by more than two runs during that period, but by allowing 14 earned runs in his past two starts, his ERA has jumped a run. Wells gets part of a mulligan considering how productive he was over those two months. Save for Conor Jackson (.951 OPS since break), the D-backs simply haven't hit, so even though it may look silly, Wells is worth a look simply due to his opponent.
 |  |
Tim Lincecum, RHP (6-2, 3.90 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) versus
Mark Hendrickson, LHP (4-5, 4.58 ERA, 1.35 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Jeff Kent, 2B (hamstring, questionable)
Game Story: The Dodgers had an .821 OPS in July, good for fourth in the majors, so on the surface it looks like a bad matchup for Lincecum. But much of that damage was done against lefties, against whom the Dodgers hit considerably better. Toss in Lincecum's recent dominance -- 1.34 ERA in his past six starts, including road starts against the Cardinals, Cubs and Brewers -- and it's more like the Dodgers get the bad matchup, not Lincecum. Hendrickson has been Hendrickson-like since April, with a 5.54 ERA and 1.56 WHIP; even the Giants have to get some hits off a pitcher that poor, right? Randy Winn is hitting .361 since the break and has a .354 average versus lefties.
Travis Buck, OF, OAK versus Detroit Tigers
Mark Ellis, 2B, OAK versus Detroit Tigers
Brandon Inge, 3B, DET @ Oakland Athletics
Coco Crisp, OF, BOS versus Baltimore Orioles
Corey Patterson, OF, BAL @ Boston Red Sox
Ramon Hernandez, C, BAL @ Boston Red Sox
Josh Fields, 3B, CHW @ New York Yankees
Ryan Garko, 1B, CLE versus Texas Rangers
Franklin Gutierrez, OF, CLE versus Texas Rangers
Paul Byrd, SP, CLE versus Texas Rangers
Brian Bannister, SP, KC @ Minnesota Twins
Alex Gordon, 3B, KC @ Minnesota Twins
Billy Butler, 1B, KC @ Minnesota Twins
Jeremy Hermida, OF, FLA versus Colorado Rockies
Mike Jacobs, 1B, FLA versus Colorado Rockies
Josh Willingham, OF, FLA versus Colorado Rockies
Byung-Hyun Kim, SP, FLA versus Colorado Rockies
Braden Looper, SP, STL @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Juan Encarnacion, OF, STL @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Matt Diaz, OF, ATL versus Houston Astros
Buddy Carlyle, SP, ATL versus Houston Astros
Kevin Mench, OF, MIL versus New York Mets
Dave Bush, SP, MIL versus New York Mets
Jamie Moyer, SP, PHI @ Chicago Cubs
David Wells, SP, SD versus Arizona Diamondbacks
Conor Jackson, 1B, ARI @ San Diego Padres
Randy Winn, OF, SF @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Please Note that the notable injuries are not meant to be a comprehensive report of each team's disabled list. For brevity, we include only day-to-day injuries or new DL additions for players you might otherwise consider using in these games. Long-term DL or day-to-day injuries to starting pitchers who were not scheduled to appear are omitted.
Adam Madison is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com and TalentedMrRoto.com. He can be reached at Adam@TalentedMrRoto.com
