Daily Notes: Expect Boston to light it up
By Tristan H. CockcroftSee projections for every game: Tomorrow's box scores, today!
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Mark Buehrle, LHP (8-6, 3.06 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) versus
Andrew Miller, LHP (5-3, 3.76 ERA, 1.56 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Darin Erstad, OF (leg, day-to-day); Jim Thome, DH (back, day-to-day); Carlos Guillen, SS (knee, day-to-day); Gary Sheffield, DH (shoulder, available)
Game Story: Though the Tigers have been passed by the Yankees as baseball's top offense, they still excel at hitting left-handers -- batting .301 with an .852 OPS, both marks are major league bests. That's why it's no surprise that since the start of 2006, Buehrle is 0-3 with a 6.66 ERA, 1.85 WHIP and .385 batting-average against in four starts versus the Tigers. AL-only owners might not be able to afford avoiding him, but playing him is a risk. Craig Monroe (12-for-30, .400, 2 HR), Magglio Ordonez (9-for-16, .563, 2 HR), Placido Polanco (8-for-19, .421) and even the left-handed Curtis Granderson (5-for-10, .500, 1 HR) own Buehrle. Don't fret over Miller's poor outing against the White Sox on July 23 (4 2/3 IP, 10 H, 5 ER). Chicago remains the AL's weakest offense (4.21 R/G), though Jermaine Dye (2-for-2, 1.000) and Josh Fields (1-for-4, .250, 1 HR) match up nicely here.
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Odalis Perez, LHP (6-9, 5.73 ERA, 1.62 WHIP) versus
Chien-Ming Wang, RHP (12-5, 3.61 ERA, 1.24 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Reggie Sanders, OF (hamstring, DL)
Game Story: Wang continues to be a fantasy ace in his home games, with a 2.92 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .233 BAA in 10 starts at Yankee Stadium this season. The Royals aren't as bad with at the plate as you might think, but Wang should still give their hitters fits -- with the possible exception of David DeJesus (3-for-6, .500), Alex Gordon (2-for-3, .667) and Mark Teahen (3-for-7, .429). On paper, Perez might seem like an interesting AL-only option due to the Yankees' mediocre .271/.755 rates against lefties, but don't be too hasty. This team has been red-hot since the All-Star break, averaging 7.43 runs per game and winning eight of 10 home games. Shelley Duncan (3-for-8, .375, 2 HR against lefties) could sneak in a start and be an AL-only consideration.
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Kevin Millwood, RHP (7-9, 5.95 ERA, 1.69 WHIP) versus
Roy Halladay, RHP (11-5, 4.04 ERA, 1.26 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: With Mark Teixeira gone and the Rangers auditioning youngsters for 2008, Halladay shouldn't struggle against Texas the way he has in the past (5.85 ERA, 1.52 WHIP in 16 games). Think about it; who's left? Michael Young (12-for-32, .375, 1 HR) is really the only Ranger who hits Halladay. Jason Botts and Ian Kinsler are smart AL-only or larger mixed pickups in general, even if this isn't the game to use either. Millwood, meanwhile, has pitched better of late, with a 5-3 record and 4.25 ERA in his past nine starts, but Friday's game isn't a great time to use him. Frank Thomas (10-for-18, .556, 2 HR) owns him, so the Blue Jays should get him back into the lineup here. Lyle Overbay (3-for-9, .333, 1 HR) handles Millwood, too.
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Daniel Cabrera, RHP (7-11, 5.08 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) versus
James Shields, RHP (8-6, 4.47 ERA, 1.14 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Cabrera has an interesting history against the Devil Rays, with a 5-0 record and 3.11 ERA in nine career starts against them. But also keep in mind that he has 39 walks in 55 innings in those games, a painfully high rate (6.38 BB/9). He's a perfect 2-0 against them this year, so keep him active. On the D-Rays side, stick with Carl Crawford (6-for-21, .286), Brendan Harris (2-for-6, .333) and B.J. Upton (4-for-9, .444, 1 HR) based on their strong track records against the right-hander, and Carlos Pena remains a must-start. Shields should be fine to use in a potentially lower-scoring affair; he's a solid 4-2 with a 3.93 ERA in 12 home starts. Still, use Nick Markakis (4-for-13, .308) and Kevin Millar (4-for-8, .500) based on their histories against Shields.
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C.C. Sabathia, LHP (13-6, 3.58 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) versus
Johan Santana, LHP (11-8, 2.92 ERA, 1.01 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Michael Cuddyer, OF (thumb, DL/could return)
Game Story: Thursday's game at the Metrodome was canceled due to the recent bridge tragedy only blocks from the stadium. The Twins will resume playing Friday in what should be a matchup between two of the games premier left-handers. Santana is a no-brainer based on his track record in home games and his career numbers after the All-Star break, but don't be shocked if Sabathia beats him here. After all, the Twins are the game's worst offense since the break (3.42 R/G), and between the off-the-field news in Minneapolis and Santana's recent comments about the Twins' trade of Luis Castillo, the team might not be entirely focused right now. Cuddyer's owners should use this game, which is expected to be his first off the DL, to evaluate him. But don't activate him if you don't have to. Use the red-hot Ryan Garko (4-for-14, .286, 2 HR lifetime against Santana).
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Dustin Moseley, RHP (4-1, 4.37 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) versus
Lenny DiNardo, LHP (5-6, 3.10 ERA, 1.28 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Eric Chavez, 3B (back, day-to-day)
Game Story: Moseley has a 3.24 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and .246 BAA in three spot starts this season -- including a six-inning, one-run effort to beat the Athletics on April 6. He's not a name you think of as a standout fantasy choice, but it's not a bad matchup for him; the A's only are baseball's 25th-ranked offense for the season (4.27 R/G) and rank 24th since the All-Star break (4.05). Still, Mark Ellis (2-for-4, .500, 1 HR), Mark Kotsay (2-for-2, 1.000) and Mike Piazza (4-for-5, .800, 1 HR) have strong track records against the right-hander. Don't bother with DiNardo, who has been maddeningly inconsistent since June. These Angels can hit, ranking sixth in baseball in runs per game (5.08 R/G). Orlando Cabrera (.337/.912), Chone Figgins (.320/.829) and Reggie Willits (365/.851) hit lefties well.
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Jon Lester, LHP (1-0, 4.26 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) versus
Horacio Ramirez, LHP (6-3, 6.52 ERA, 1.79 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: J.D. Drew, OF (personal, day-to-day)
Game Story: The Red Sox have baseball's fifth-ranked offense (5.14 R/G), so they should light up Ramirez in a similar fashion to when they faced him May 3 (4 IP, 11 H, 7 ER). As always, load up on Red Sox players. It's worth mentioning, however, that Mike Lowell (9-for-18, .500, 1 HR) and Wily Mo Pena (4-for-9, .444, 1 HR) are especially fond of the lefty. Lester, a fly ball pitcher (0.29:1 groundball-flyball ratio), should match up better in a spacious ballpark like Safeco. Jose Guillen (.396/1.147) and Kenji Johjima (.342/.974) tear up left-handers, so be sure to use them, but the interesting player to watch on Seattle's side is rookie Adam Jones, who is expected to be promoted for this game. AL-only and larger mixed owners should add him, and those in AL formats can consider him here.
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Orlando Hernandez, RHP (7-4, 3.02 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) versus
Carlos Zambrano, RHP (14-7, 3.47 ERA, 1.23 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Paul Lo Duca, C, (hamstring, day-to-day); Aramis Ramirez, 3B (knee, day-to-day); Kerry Wood, RP (shoulder, DL/could return)
Game Story: Zambrano -- 9-2 with a 1.41 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and .143 BAA in his last 11 starts -- has must-start status no matter the opponent. And, although the Mets might seem an elite offense, they're really not; they actually rank in the bottom half in runs scored (19th, 4.59 R/G). Still, Luis Castillo (5-for-10, .500) and Shawn Green (4-for-11, .364, 1 HR) are good enough against Zambrano historically to play. Stick with Hernandez in NL-only formats, too, despite the fact that he's better at home (2.20 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) than on the road (3.64/1.16). Jacque Jones (8-for-24, .333) should warrant consideration in most formats based on his favorable history against "El Duque."
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Kip Wells, RHP (4-13, 5.72 ERA, 1.59 WHIP) versus
Tim Redding, RHP (1-2, 2.64 ERA, 1.27 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Any visiting pitcher scheduled to start at RFK warrants at least a look. Wells is a tough read considering he has a 4.79 ERA, 1.79 WHIP and .326 BAA in four starts since being reinserted into the rotation after the All-Star break. Use him in NL-only formats. Austin Kearns -- a .286/.855 hitter since the break, and 6-for-23 (.261) with a homer lifetime against Wells -- warrants a look. Avoid Redding despite his 2.92 ERA in four starts at RFK; the Cardinals are hitting better since the break (4.79 R/G). A few Cardinals are pretty familiar with him, including David Eckstein (2-for-2, 1.000), Albert Pujols (11-for-24, .458, 1 HR) and Scott Rolen (7-for-24, .292, 2 HR).
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Matt Belisle, RHP (5-8, 5.30 ERA, 1.46 WHIP) versus
Ian Snell, RHP (7-9, 3.66 ERA, 1.25 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Xavier Nady, OF (hamstring, day-to-day)
Game Story: Snell has a 3.38 ERA in five career starts against Cincinnati, and the Reds are a free-swinging bunch, making this a nice matchup for him at home. The right-hander does has a 6-3 record, 2.84 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 10 starts at PNC this season. Still, Ken Griffey Jr. (4-for-7, .571) and Javier Valentin (6-for-10, .600, 2 HR) have handled Snell, and warrant your attention, too. Though Belisle's matchup isn't terrible in NL-only leagues, don't expect another complete-game victory -- on April 28, he gave up five hits and a run in nine innings of work at PNC -- from him. In fact, he has only five quality starts in 16 tries since that day. Nady (3-for-6, .500) and Freddy Sanchez (6-for-14, .429) hit the right-hander well.
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Roy Oswalt, RHP (10-6, 3.63 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) versus
Dontrelle Willis, LHP (7-10, 4.95 ERA, 1.64 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Willis has had a lot of trouble the past few months; he has an 0-7 record, 5.09 ERA, 1.82 WHIP and .324 BAA in 11 starts since June 1. He's especially shaky at home and coming off back-to-back poor efforts despite favorable matchups. The Astros might be a weak-hitting team, ranking 22nd in runs (4.42 R/G), but they do hit left-handers (.278/.781) better than right-handers (.250/.720). Brad Ausmus (4-for-13, .308), Lance Berkman (6-for-18, .333) and Ty Wigginton (10-for-28, .357) have hit Willis well in the past. As for Oswalt, count on another solid outing from him against a righty-heavy, strikeout-prone Marlins team. Mike Jacobs (3-for-9, .333, 1 HR) is the only Marlin with all that interesting a track record against the right-hander.
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Jeff Francis, LHP (11-5, 4.12 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) versus
John Smoltz, RHP (10-5, 2.84 ERA, 1.21 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Francis has been one of the more underappreciated pitchers in baseball for awhile now, which could be a result of pitching for the Rockies. A quick look at his 10-2 record and 3.50 ERA in his last 17 starts says he's a reliable fantasy option most nights. Of course, the Braves do have some hitters who have gotten to him in the past, including Matt Diaz (4-for-6, .667), Andruw Jones (2-for-6, .333, 1 HR) and Chipper Jones (2-for-6, .333, 2 HR). The newest Brave, Mark Teixeira, is also an elite slugger against lefties (.363/1.021 rates this season). In short, be cautious with Francis in shallow leagues, especially noting that Smoltz is his opponent. Sure, Todd Helton (10-for-22, .455), Matt Holliday (8-for-20, .400) and Kazuo Matsui (8-for-20, .400) hit Smoltz well, but things should still lean much more in the right-hander's favor in terms of who gets the win.
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Kyle Kendrick, RHP (5-1, 4.04 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) versus
Yovani Gallardo, RHP (3-1, 2.72 ERA, 1.08 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Scott Linebrink, RP (bereavement, out)
Game Story: Gallardo has officially achieved must-start status, and consider that opposing hitters have managed only .167/.479 rates against him in his home games. With Chase Utley and Shane Victorino on the sidelines, Ryan Howard is the only Phillie who should be all that threatening to the rookie. Kendrick, meanwhile, shouldn't scare the Brewers' solid offense. He has a 5.71 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and .297 BAA in three road starts, and this is not the kind of matchup that will help him improve those numbers. It's a good time to go for Geoff Jenkins; he is a .278/.842 hitter against right-handers.
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Matt Cain, RHP (3-12, 4.02 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) versus
Greg Maddux, RHP (7-8, 4.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Rich Aurilia, 1B (hamstring, day-to-day); Brian Giles, OF (ankle, day-to-day)
Game Story: In three career starts at Pecto, Cain has a 1.47 ERA, .086 BAA and 11.29 K/9 ratio. However, he also has 15 walks in 18 1/3 innings during that span (7.36 BB/9). Call this a good time for him to break out of his recent funk; he has registered a 6.05 ERA in his past seven starts. Against Maddux, in a probable pitchers' duel, Cain might again fall short of his fourth win of the season. If Barry Bonds is still in the hunt for the all-time home run record here, keep in mind he's 34-for-127 (.268) with eight homers lifetime against Maddux. Khalil Greene, meanwhile, is 5-for-16 (.313) with three homers lifetime against Cain.
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Doug Davis, LHP (7-10, 4.11 ERA, 1.64 WHIP) versus
Chad Billingsley, RHP (7-1, 3.65 ERA, 1.27 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Carlos Quentin, OF (hamstring, DL); Chad Tracy, 3B (knee, day-to-day); Jeff Kent, 2B (hamstring, day-to-day)
Game Story: Davis lost a pitchers' duel at Dodger Stadium on May 2. In his career he has gone 13 innings in L.A. without allowing an earned run, with a .196 BAA. Still, the Dodgers hit left-handers well (.286/.786 team rates); Rafael Furcal (.365/.863), Matt Kemp (.333/.940), Jeff Kent (.357/1.108) and Russell Martin (.337/1.058) are especially productive against that side. Davis warrants NL-only or larger mixed consideration. He's facing the red-hot Billingsley, however, so don't necessarily on a win for the lefty. Furcal (4-for-12, .333) and Juan Pierre (10-for-23, .435) have the track records against Davis, while Eric Byrnes (4-for-9, .444) has a good track record against Billingsley. Justin Upton, who warrants NL-only and deeper mixed consideration, is a risky option here against a tough right-hander like Billingsley.
Chad Billingsley, SP, LAD versus Arizona Diamondbacks
Daniel Cabrera, SP, BAL @ Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Luis Castillo, 2B, NYM @ Chicago Cubs
David DeJesus, OF, KC @ New York Yankees
Matt Diaz, OF, ATL versus Colorado Rockies
Ryan Garko, 1B, CLE @ Minnesota Twins
Geoff Jenkins, OF, MIL versus Philadelphia Phillies
Jacque Jones, OF, CHC versus New York Mets
Matt Kemp, OF, LAD versus Arizona Diamondbacks
Jon Lester, SP, BOS @ Seattle Mariners
Greg Maddux, SP, SD versus San Francisco Giants
Andrew Miller, SP, DET versus Chicago White Sox
Craig Monroe, OF, DET versus Chicago White Sox
Dustin Moseley, SP, LAA @ Oakland Athletics
Scott Rolen, 3B, STL @ Washington Nationals
Frank Thomas, DH, TOR versus Texas Rangers
Reggie Willits, OF, LAA @ Oakland Athletics
Please note that the notable injuries are not meant to be a comprehensive report of each team's disabled list. For brevity, we include only day-to-day injuries or new DL additions for players you might otherwise consider using in these games. Long-term DL or day-to-day injuries to starting pitchers who were not scheduled to appear are omitted.
Tristan H. Cockcroft covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.
