Daily Notes: Pitching headliners
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Roy Halladay, RHP (14-6, 3.86 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) versus
Lenny DiNardo, LHP (8-7, 3.57 ERA, 1.34 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Marco Scutaro, 3B (dizziness, day-to-day)
Game Story: Halladay hasn't been his usual dominating self this season but does have a 2.91 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in nine starts since the All-Star break, averaging almost 7 2/3 innings an outing. Though the Athletics' .793 OPS this month ranks 10th, they still shouldn't be considered a particularly threatening offense, because outside of Nick Swisher and Jack Cust, no one really stands out. The Blue Jays have crushed lefties all season and this shouldn't be any different against DiNardo. Aaron Hill is in the midst of a seven-game hitting streak and has an .857 OPS against lefties; Reed Johnson is hitting .360 against southpaws, albeit in 50 at-bats, and Frank Thomas has seven home runs with a .337 average against them.
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Jered Weaver, RHP (9-6, 3.96 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) versus
Felix Hernandez, RHP (10-6, 3.90 ERA, 1.38 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Chone Figgins, 3B (wrist, questionable)
Game Story: The Mariners are still hitting well this month -- their .861 OPS ranks fourth in August -- but they have slowed down a bit recently, scoring just 10 runs in their past four games. Weaver has been bombed by the Mariners in his previous two starts, allowing 11 runs in 10 2/3 innings, and with his propensity to get torched -- he has allowed five or more runs in five starts -- it probably would be best to bench him just to be safe. Yuniesky Betancourt is one of the Mariners who has slowed down, with three hits in his last seven games, but Jose Guillen is still on fire. Hernandez has also been bombed by L.A., with the Angels posting 14 runs in 17 2/3 innings against King Felix, so you should pass here, too.
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Josh Beckett, RHP (16-5, 3.21 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) versus
Roger Clemens, RHP (5-5, 4.34 ERA, 1.31 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Manny Ramirez, OF (back, probable)
Game Story: Beckett has obviously been impressive all season, with a sub-3.00 ERA in three months (including August), but the Yankees are another story. Though the Yankees' offense has declined slightly, the .865 OPS it has posted this month is still good enough for third, and it has blown every other offense out of the water since the All-Star break. Beckett has a 5.54 ERA 1.69 WHIP in two previous starts against them, and that was when the Yankees were a shell of themselves. Clemens has been quite inconsistent, and in his last start gave up six runs in five innings against the struggling Tigers. The Red Sox will be the best offense Clemens has faced, and when you consider his max is only around six innings anyway, there's not much upside.
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Johan Santana, LHP (14-9, 2.97 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) versus
C.C. Sabathia, LHP (14-7, 3.38 ERA, 1.16 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Joe Mauer, C (hamstring and ankle, day-to-day)
Game Story: The Indians and Twins should still be considered weak -- their .714 and .712 OPS in August ranks them 25th and 26th, respectively -- but they've shown a bit more life in the past week, with the Twins hitting .298/.362/.483 and the Indians .284/.347/.420. The Indians also perform better against lefties, with players like Ryan Garko (.325 average, five homers) and Franklin Gutierrez (.306, four) putting in their best work, and in terms of pure talent, they also have one of the better offenses in the league. For the Twins, Michael Cuddyer comes alive against lefties, against whom he hits 77 points higher, but for the most part Santana and Sabathia are the two Cy Young candidates who should control the game.
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James Shields, RHP (10-8, 4.09 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) versus
Steve Trachsel, RHP (6-8, 4.61 ERA, 1.57 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Shields had a rough July, thanks primarily to two starts against the Yankees, who posted 15 runs on him, but he has been great once again in August with a 2.38 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He handled the Orioles well earlier in the month, logging a quality start by allowing three runs in 6 2/3 innings, and he should top that performance this time around because the Orioles aren't hitting as well now as they were in the beginning of August. Trachsel looks like he has been decent recently, with a 2.53 ERA in his past five starts, but he still has an ugly 14-5 walk-strikeout rate. Though the D-Rays aren't much against righties, it would still be a risk not worth taking to start Trachsel against nearly any team.
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Andrew Miller, LHP (5-4, 4.97 ERA, 1.66 WHIP) versus
Zack Greinke, RHP (5-5, 4.25 ERA, 1.32 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Gary Sheffield, OF (shoulder, DL)
Game Story: Miller has been disastrous since the All-Star break, with a 7.07 ERA and 2.11 WHIP in six starts, but he's not pitching that much worse than he did earlier; his luck has just reversed in a big way. With an average defense behind him and a now-poor offense, Miller can't be seen as much more than a fifth starter. Luckily, the Royals are one of the few teams he's playable against; this month the Royals have the second-worst OPS in baseball. Billy Butler mashes lefties (.329 average, two homers in 70 at-bats) and Alex Gordon has been decent recently, but that's pretty much the extent of the Royals' offense. Greinke went just three innings in his last start, and though he pitched well, he's pretty risky until he pitches well and gets more starts under his belt.
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Jon Garland, RHP (8-10, 4.90 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) versus
Kameron Loe, RHP (6-10, 5.53 ERA, 1.59 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Michael Young, SS (back, day-to-day); Gerald Laird, C (knee, day-to-day); Scott Podsednik, OF (ribcage, day-to-day)
Game Story: Garland has allowed five runs in each of his past two starts, and if you go back further than that he has allowed at least four runs in five of his past seven starts. Unsurprisingly he has seen his ERA jump a run as a result, and overall he has a 7.21 ERA since the All-Star break, so consider the few decent bats of the Rangers options (Brad Wilkerson, Jarrod Saltalamacchia) and avoid Garland. Loe's been decent since returning from the disabled list earlier this month, but still has more to prove. Despite not allowing a run against the Twins, he still walked five, and against the Mariners he allowed four unearned runs. The White Sox have stabilized around a league-average offense since a rough start, and that is out of Loe's league for now.
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Shawn Hill, RHP (3-3, 2.31 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) versus
Brad Penny, RHP (14-4, 2.65 ERA, 1.24 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Wily Mo Pena, OF (foot, day-to-day)
Game Story: Hill has been quite impressive whenever he has been able to pitch; the most runs he has allowed in a start is three, and even that was just once. He came off the disabled list in August, and with three straight great starts against high-quality offenses, there's no reason not to consider him a strong start against the struggling Dodgers, with Matt Kemp the main worry in the Dodgers' lineup. The Nationals' offense has progressively declined from its hot start this month, and Penny should further cool them off. Eight of Penny's past nine starts have been quality starts, and in the one so-called non-quality start, he still went five innings and allowed one run.
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Jeff Francis, LHP (13-6, 4.32 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) versus
Noah Lowry, LHP (14-7, 3.59 ERA, 1.51 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Ray Durham, 2B (hamstring, day-to-day)
Game Story: Francis hasn't pitched well recently, with a 5.33 ERA and 1.43 WHIP since the All-Star break, but his walk rate and especially his strikeout rate have improved; the 10 home runs allowed in 52 1/3 innings have killed his value. The Giants have hit 107 homers this season (23rd in the majors) and are tied for last in OPS against lefties, and the game takes place in a pitchers' park rather than Coors Field. As a result, Francis should be considered a strong spot start. Though Lowry has a 3.18 ERA at home, he allows too many men on base to trust him against the Rockies. The in-season improvement of Troy Tulowitzki and Ryan Spilborghs in center field makes them that much more dangerous.
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Buddy Carlyle, RHP (7-5, 5.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) versus
Dontrelle Willis, LHP (8-13, 4.96 ERA, 1.60 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: It was only a matter of time before Carlyle began to get bombed; Carlyle hasn't made it past the sixth inning in five straight starts and has allowed 14 home runs in 90 innings. The Marlins hit better at home despite playing in a pitchers' park, and have too many good hitters to not punish Carlyle. Jeremy Hermida has his batting average at .347 in August with four home runs to boot. Fortunately, the Braves have the offense to make up for the poor starting pitching, and their .833 OPS since the All-Star break is good for third in the majors. Yunel Escobar has continued to hit well (.344 in August) filling in for Edgar Renteria, and Matt Diaz crushes lefties (.369/.393/.594), which is bad news for Willis.
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Aaron Harang, RHP (13-3, 3.68 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) versus
Ian Snell, RHP (8-10, 3.93 ERA, 1.30 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Xavier Nady, OF (hamstring, day-to-day); Jack Wilson, SS (shin, day-to-day)
Game Story: The Pirates (.872) and Reds (8.69) rank first and second in OPS this month. For the Pirates, they've been doing it without anything from Jason Bay (,232/.303/.384); indeed, Nate McLouth has been more like Bay at his best, with Bay playing like McLouth. Jose Bautista also has five home runs, Adam LaRoche has five home runs with a .351 average, Freddy Sanchez has four home runs while hitting .364, and Xavier Nady is hitting .364 with three homers. That's more than enough to bench Harang, who has a 4.98 ERA against the Pirates this season anyway. The Reds have destroyed righties all season long, and the return of Josh Hamilton (.319 average, three homers) has helped a ton, so go with the bats, not the arms.
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Oliver Perez, LHP (12-8, 3.34 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) versus
Jamie Moyer, LHP (11-10, 5.16 ERA, 1.44 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Shane Victorino, OF (calf, day-to-day)
Game Story: Perez has been dancing closer to the razor's edge than this ERA and WHIP suggest, with worrisome walk and home run rates, so it's not too surprising to see his post All-Star numbers have increased to a 3.76 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Now that Chase Utley is back, the Phillies should resume being one of baseball's elite offenses, and at home the Phillies are particularly impressive. That's not to say totally avoid Perez, but if you're watching your innings and have better options, don't be shy. Moyer was bombed by two of the hottest offenses in baseball in his past two starts, not a total surprise, but it doesn't get much easier: the Mets (.802 OPS) bash lefties too, especially Moises Alou (1.015 OPS).
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TBD versus
Carlos Zambrano, RHP (14-10, 3,95 ERA, 1.33 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Ben Sheets, SP (finger, DL); Alfonso Soriano, OF (quadriceps, DL)
Game Story: The Brewers hope their to-be-determined starter is actually Ben Sheets, who could come off the disabled list to take the mound. The Cubs also have a star who could return from the disabled list the same day in Alfonso Soriano, which would greatly help their struggling offense. Or maybe the game gets rained out, which would help both teams; the rain is expected to continue well into the morning. Anyway, neither offense has been that great this month: The Cubs are 21st in OPS (.737), and while the Brewers are 12th (.790), it won't translate into as many runs because they can't get men on base (.310 OBP, last).
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Kip Wells, RHP (6-14, 5.41 ERA, 1.58 WHIP) versus
Roy Oswalt, RHP (13-6, 3.33 ERA, 1.33 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: David Eckstein, SS (finger, day-to-day)
Game Story: Pitchers like Wells aren't great options even against poor offenses because their upside is usually in terms of a quality start, which at worst, would be just a 4.50 ERA, with maybe a win or some decent strikeouts. The downside is much bigger, though, and even though the opposition's offense is weak, it doesn't necessarily mean it can't get bombed. The Astros are on pace for their worst OPS since May, so it's not difficult to foresee Wells logging a decent start, but it's not worth the risk attached. Outside of Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds (.338 average) has been the only notable decent player on the Cardinals, but they still have a league-average OPS this month. If Chris Duncan was hitting, it may be a different story, but Oswalt will be fine once again.
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Micah Owings, RHP (6-7, 4.69 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) versus
Greg Maddux, RHP (10-9, 3.90 ERA, 1.20 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Owings quietly has been pretty solid lately, with a 3.41 ERA and 1.01 WHIP this month despite facing a pretty tough schedule (the Padres and Pirates have been great this month, the Braves definitely have one of the league's best offenses, and the Nationals were good for the first half of the month). Now he faces the Padres again, though this time the Pads are at home, where they hit much worse. Most of the Padres have hit well this month, but Milton Bradley has been the star, with five home runs and a .359 average. Maddux is much better at home, (3.28 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) and has been great in August, and the D-backs seem stuck as a below-average spot start, so he is one of the day's best spot starts.
Aaron Hill, 2B, TOR @ Oakland Athletics
Frank Thomas, DH, TOR @ Oakland Athletics
Reed Johnson, OF, TOR @ Oakland Athletics
Jose Guillen, OF, SEA versus Los Angeles Angels
Ryan Garko, 1B, CLE versus Minnesota Twins
Andrew Miller, SP, DET @ Kansas City Royals
Billy Butler, 1B, KC versus Detroit Tigers
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, TEX versus Chicago White Sox
Shawn Hill, SP, WAS @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Jeff Francis, SP, COL @ San Francisco Giants
Ryan Spilborghs, OF, COL @ San Francisco Giants
Jeremy Hermida, OF, FLA versus Atlanta Braves
Matt Diaz, OF, ATL @ Florida Marlins
Nate McLouth, OF, PIT versus Cincinnati Reds
Adam LaRoche, 1B, PIT versus Cincinnati Reds
Josh Hamilton, OF, CIN @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Moises Alou, OF, NYM @ Philadelphia Phillies
Micah Owings, SP, ARI @ San Diego Padres
Greg Maddux, SP, SD versus Arizona Diamondbacks
Please note that the notable injuries are not meant to be a comprehensive report of each team's disabled list. For brevity, we include only day-to-day injuries or new DL additions for players you might otherwise consider using in these games. Long-term DL or day-to-day injuries to starting pitchers who were not scheduled to appear are omitted.
Adam Madison is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com and TalentedMrRoto.com. He can be reached at Adam@TalentedMrRoto.com
