Daily Notes: New starting pitchers abound
See projections for every game: Tomorrow's box scores, today!
Fausto Carmona, RHP (14-8, 3.31 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) versus
Scott Baker, RHP (8-6, 4.09 ERA, 1.24 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Joe Mauer, C (hamstring and ankle, doubtful)
Game Story: Carmona has a microscopic ERA and WHIP in three previous starts against the Twins -- a 1.14 ERA and 1.01 WHIP -- though with 11 strikeouts and eight walks he hasn't been overpowering. Without Mauer, the Twins' lineup is pathetic; Mauer's .388 on-base percentage is 34 points higher than the next-best hitter on the Twins. Baker has been excellent after a rough start and has had a lower ERA in each successive month, and since the All-Star break he has a 2.87 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The Indians' offense has substantially declined against righties, and not much has changed from when Baker shut them out for eight innings a month ago.
Joe Blanton, RHP (11-9, 3.88 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) versus
Joe Saunders, LHP (7-2, 3.62 ERA, 1.43 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Chone Figgins, 3B (wrist, questionable)
Game Story: Since allowing nine runs in four innings against the Tigers four starts ago, Blanton has a 2.42 ERA in 26 innings, including 22 strikeouts and just two walks. The Angels, though, are a much better offense than any of the teams he faced -- they're ninth in OPS and fifth in runs scored -- and are averaging over 7½ runs per game in their past seven games. Howie Kendrick has a five-game hitting streak, with four multihit games included, while Garret Anderson has five home runs in his past eight games. That run support makes Saunders a solid option even though he hasn't pitched well recently, and it's not as though the A's have much hitting to worry about (though Mark Ellis does kill lefties).
Gavin Floyd, RHP (1-2, 6.92 ERA, 1.62 WHIP) versus
Kenny Rogers, LHP (3-2, 5.23 ERA, 1.41 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: A.J. Pierzynski, C (personal, out)
Game Story: Floyd did have his best start of the season against the Tigers, striking out six in six innings without allowing a run and he is coming off a quality start. But he allowed two home runs in that start, which gives him 14 on the season in only 39 innings. The Tigers seem to be employing a stars-and-scrubs lineup, but their stars are still more than good enough for Floyd. Rogers is returning from the disabled list to make this start, and in his previous three starts before hitting the DL he allowed 17 runs in 15 1/3 innings. Josh Fields (eight home runs, .329 average) and Juan Uribe (seven home runs, .278 average) love to see southpaws, and there's no telling what, if anything, Rogers has left at this point in his career.
Jarrod Washburn, LHP (9-12, 4.37 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) versus
Phil Hughes, RHP (2-3, 5.65 ERA, 1.35 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Richie Sexson, 1B (hamstring, doubtful); Andy Phillips, 1B (wrist, out for season)
Game Story: Washburn is facing the Yankees at the perfect time -- they've hit .246/.320/.382 in the past week -- and the Yankees are only middle of the pack (.767 OPS, 16th) against lefties anyway. In two previous starts, Washburn has a 2.03 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 13 1/3 innings. With the loss of Phillips, one would imagine Jason Giambi should see a true full-time role if he can physically handle it. He has to be productive, though. It was odd to see Giambi with only one walk in 51 August plate appearances. Hughes, like Washburn, is also facing a previously hot offense that has since cooled down. Hughes has been a real mixed bag, and has pitched poorly despite many seemingly favorable matchups. This is another good one, but you may want to save your innings for someone more dependable.
Shaun Marcum, RHP (12-5, 3.75 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) versus
Curt Schilling, RHP (8-6, 4.02 ERA, 1.28 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Manny Ramirez, OF (back, questionable)
Game Story: Marcum had a combined 2.25 ERA in May and June, but has a 4.42 ERA since, and it wouldn't be any surprise to see it substantially higher. His main problem has been home runs; he has allowed 12 since July, and 24 total on the season. The Red Sox are actually a good matchup in that regard, though; there's a good chance Ramirez will miss the game, which leaves them with only Mike Lowell and David Ortiz as players with over 15 home runs, and at home, thanks to the Green Monster, they're only 23rd in home runs hit. For the Jays, Frank Thomas is on fire -- he's in the midst of a 12-game hitting streak -- but otherwise the Jays, who rank 25th in OPS against righties, have been anemic.
Radhames Liz, RHP (0-1, 7.00 ERA, 1.56 WHIP) versus
Andy Sonnanstine, RHP (4-9, 5.88 ERA, 1.29 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: The Orioles are very thin in pitching right now and the minor league season is about over, so getting a look at Liz in the majors can't hurt. Liz struck out over 10 batters per nine innings in Double-A this season but also has immense control problems. The Rays are decent enough offensively to do well against Liz. Akinori Iwamura has three home runs in his past five games, and Delmon Young has an 11-game hitting streak that includes nine multihit games. Sonnanstine was rocked in his two previous starts against the Orioles, allowing five runs in one start and seven in another. He has allowed five or more runs in a start seven times, too. A pitcher with that much inconsistency isn't conducive to spot starting.
Kyle Davies, RHP (6-11, 5.99 ERA, 1.62 WHIP) versus
Vicente Padilla, RHP (4-9, 6.36 ERA, 1.71 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Now this is a confusing, downright ugly game, with two starting pitchers fighting each other for the ugliest lines between the two. The offenses aren't much better; since losing Mark Teixeira, the Rangers' offense has basically been Jarrod Saltalamacchia and scoring 39 combined runs in a doubleheader, while for the Royals it has been more of the same. For the Rangers, Ian Kinsler has a nine-game hitting streak, with three home runs in that time, while Brad Wilkerson hit .315 in August. John Buck looked like a building block for the Royals earlier in the season, but something happened -- he's hit .202 since June. There's still Alex Gordon, though, who, with three home runs in his past three games, has now hit .286 with eight home runs and five steals since the All-Star break.
John Maine, RHP (14-8, 3.57 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) versus
Tom Shearn, RHP (1-0, 4.76 ERA, 1.32 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Maine has been decent since allowing six runs in back-to-back starts, with a 3.89 ERA in his next four starts, including holding the Braves to one run in seven innings in his most recent start. But if Maine gets bombed Wednesday against the Reds, don't think too much of it; the Reds hit righties well (.795 OPS, fourth), are coming off their best offensive month (.874 OPS, first), and the game takes place in a hitters' park. Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Hamilton and Alex Gonzalez are all hitting well. It's taken Shearn 11 years to finally get his first start in the majors, which, while a nice story, is more of an indictment of Shearn's skills. Moises Alou has a 10-game hitting streak and you should continue riding his hot hitting.
Kyle Kendrick, RHP (8-3, 3.79 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) versus
Tim Hudson, RHP (15-7, 3.32 ERA, 1.20 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Shane Victorino, OF (calf, out)
Game Story: Only Steve Trachsel and Aaron Cook have a lower strikeout rate than Kendrick, not the best company to be in, and it basically resigns a pitcher to fringe territory. Kendrick has had a soft schedule, but the Braves will change that as they're one of the league's best offenses. It will be a strong test for Kendrick, one most pitchers don't pass, and one that should be met with skepticism. Hudson has slipped up recently, allowing nine runs in his past 11 innings, and the Phillies have a better offense than either the Cardinals or Mets. And while Victorino may be out indefinitely after he reaggravated his calf, it's more of a blessing in disguise as long as Jayson Werth (three home runs, four steals, .414 average in August) keeps hitting.
Sergio Mitre, RHP (5-8, 4.57 ERA, 1.43 WHIP) versus
Tim Redding, RHP (3-5, 3.27 ERA, 1.41 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: With four consecutive starts in which he has allowed at least five runs, it seems the league has figured out Mitre. The quality of opposition hasn't mattered -- the D-backs and Giants put up five runs, too -- so there's no reason to discriminate against the Nationals this time around. Austin Kearns had five home runs and hit .306 in August, and along with Dmitri Young, who hit .373 in August, represents the best options. Redding has allowed eight runs in his past two starts, lasting a combined nine innings, and he has walked a whopping 10 batters in that span as well. Most Marlins are good options on Wednesday, especially Jeremy Hermida and Josh Willingham, who have been on fire. Mike Jacobs, who hit a home run on Monday, also isn't a bad option.
Matt Albers, RHP (4-6, 5.36 ERA, 1.51 WHIP) versus
Yovani Gallardo, RHP (6-4, 4.66 ERA, 1.32 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Geoff Jenkins, OF (foot, day-to-day)
Game Story: Despite back-to-back quality starts against the Cardinals and Pirates where Albers allowed two runs in 14 innings, he still shouldn't seen as an option against the Brewers. The Brewers do have power, and Albers has allowed opponents to slug .453 off him, including 14 home runs allowed. Gallardo's game log reads like the definition of inconsistency, either getting bombed or pitching lights out. The Astros have been horrible offensively since the All-Star break, as their .719 OPS ranks 28th. That's about as favorable a matchup as one can get, Gallardo did allow only two runs in seven innings against the Pirates, so you have to throw him out there again.
David Wells, LHP (6-8, 5.46 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) versus
Ted Lilly, LHP (13-7, 3.89 ERA, 1.17 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Jason Kendall, C (hand, day-to-day)
Game Story: Wells had a very productive 11-start stretch in the middle of the season before he suddenly lost it, which makes it difficult to evaluate him. But when you're 44, there's a risk of ruin, apparently one the Dodgers will take. In his first two starts with the Dodgers, Wells was decent against two offenses that hit lefties well, something the Cubs definitely don't do. They're actually 28th in OPS against lefties, tempting enough to spot start Wells. Lilly had a 5.05 ERA in six August starts, allowing a whopping eight home runs. The Dodgers hit better against lefties, but that's relative; the Dodgers weren't doing much hitting, period, in August (.701 OPS). There are a couple of hitters to be wary of (Matt Kemp, .361 average against lefties) but Lilly should be fine.
Bryan Bullington, RHP (Season debut) versus
Mark Mulder, LHP (Season debut)
Notable Injuries: Adam LaRoche, 1B (knee, day-to-day); Xavier Nady, OF (head, day-to-day)
Game Story: At age 26, Bullington, a former No. 1 overall selection, will finally make his first career start after being drafted in 2002. It is more due to necessity than Bullington pitching well enough to earn it; he had a 4.00 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in Triple-A this season. Mulder is also making his first start of the season, due to a shoulder injury. He was decent in four rehab starts. Neither starter is an impressive option with so much unknown surrounding both. If either could be a league-average pitcher on the major league level, it would be an accomplishment. Nate McLouth and Jose Bautista hit well in August and both have a home run in September, so don't write them off too quickly.
Kevin Correia, RHP (3-6, 3.77 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) versus
Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP (3-2, 4.03 ERA, 1.13 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: none
Game Story: Correia's performance against the Nationals -- two runs in six innings -- was good enough for a quality start, and he was one-third of an inning away from one versus the Brewers, which is decent enough to stick in the rotation. The Rockies are much better offensively than the Brewers and Nationals, though, especially in Coors. Virtually the entire team hits better at home, including Ryan Spilborghs (.322 average, four home runs). Jimenez didn't look too impressive to begin his major league career, but with four good starts in a row and 45 strikeouts in 51 1/3 innings, don't feel shy about adding him. He has beat the teams he should, and he faces another weak offensive team in the Giants.
Jack Cassel, RHP (0-0, 5.19 ERA, 1.62 WHIP) versus
Livan Hernandez, RHP (9-9, 4.67 ERA, 1.54 WHIP)
Notable Injuries: Conor Jackson, 1B (wrist, day-to-day)
Game Story: Cassel, a career minor leaguer before being called up in August, is one of the rare pitchers who, at this point, can't be spot started against the Diamondbacks. He's too hittable to have an impact in the major leagues -- Cassel has allowed more than 10 hits per nine innings in his minor league career -- and the D-backs are rather decent at home, with a .760 OPS. Hernandez has a 5.76 ERA in four starts against the Padres, and the Padres' offense benefits from playing in Chase Field, or anywhere away from Petco. They turn into an above-average offense on the road. Brian Giles, Khalil Greene, Mike Cameron and Kevin Kouzmanoff are all examples of players who go from putrid to effective as they switch parks.
Scott Baker, SP, MIN versus Cleveland Indians
Mark Ellis, 2B, OAK versus Los Angeles Angels
Josh Fields, 3B, CHW @ Detroit Tigers
Phil Hughes, SP, NYY versus Seattle Mariners
Jarrod Washburn, SP, SEA @ New York Yankees
Frank Thomas, DH, TOR @ Boston Red Sox
Shaun Marcum, SP, TOR @ Boston Red Sox
Akinori Iwamura, 3B, TB versus Baltimore Orioles
Delmon Young, OF, TB versus Baltimore Orioles
Alex Gordon, 3B, KC @ Texas Rangers
Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, CIN versus New York Mets
Moises Alou, OF, NYM @ Cincinnati Reds
Jayson Werth, OF, PHI @ Atlanta Braves
Austin Kearns, OF, WAS versus Florida Marlins
Josh Willingham, OF, FLA @ Washington Nationals
Jeremy Hermida, OF, FLA @ Washington Nationals
Yovani Gallardo, SP, MIL versus Houston Astros
David Wells, SP, LAD @ Chicago Cubs
Matt Kemp, OF, LAD @ Chicago Cubs
Jose Bautista, 3B, PIT @ St. Louis Cardinals
Ryan Spilborghs, OF, COL versus San Francisco Giants
Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, COL versus San Francisco Giants
Brian Giles, OF, SD @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Khalil Greene, SS, SD @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Please Note that the notable injuries are not meant to be a comprehensive report of each team's disabled list. For brevity, we include only day-to-day injuries or new DL additions for players you might otherwise consider using in these games. Long-term DL or day-to-day injuries to starting pitchers who were not scheduled to appear are omitted.
Adam Madison is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com and TalentedMrRoto.com. He can be reached at Adam@TalentedMrRoto.com.
