Daily Notes for Saturday: Lester, Halladay square off
After a treacherous past weekend weatherwise, this weekend is looking a lot nicer. Beautiful weather is expected just about everywhere, and playoff races are nearing their apexes. The Brewers, Phillies and Mets are duking it out for the National League wild card (and the latter two the East title, as well), and all three will be doing so in road games. Not a single one, sadly, will be playing head-to-head.
In the American League, the Rays and Red Sox continue their fight for East supremacy by each facing some pretty good opponents. Tampa Bay battles Minnesota, a wild-card contender, and the underrated Kevin Slowey. Boston, meanwhile, has to deal with Toronto ace Roy Halladay, a tough opponent no matter a team's circumstances.
| Time | Visitors | L/R | Record | ERA | WHIP | Home | L/R | Record | ERA | WHIP | |||
| 1:05 p.m. | | Brian Burres | L | 7-9 | 6.32 | 1.72 | @ | | Alfredo Aceves | R | 1-0 | 1.80 | 0.90 |
| 1:07 p.m. | | Jon Lester | L | 15-5 | 3.15 | 1.29 | @ | | Roy Halladay | R | 18-11 | 2.77 | 1.05 |
| 3:55 p.m. | | Joel Pineiro | R | 6-6 | 5.24 | 1.49 | @ | | Ted Lilly | L | 15-9 | 4.13 | 1.25 |
| 3:55 p.m. | | CC Sabathia | L | 15-9 | 2.88 | 1.14 | @ | | Johnny Cueto | R | 8-13 | 4.68 | 1.39 |
| 3:55 p.m. | | Kevin Slowey | R | 12-10 | 3.66 | 1.10 | @ | | Scott Kazmir | L | 11-7 | 3.50 | 1.27 |
| 4:05 p.m. | | Carlos Silva | R | 4-15 | 6.42 | 1.59 | @ | | Gio Gonzalez | L | 1-4 | 8.70 | 1.80 |
| 7:05 p.m. | | Justin Verlander | R | 10-16 | 4.78 | 1.38 | @ | | Jeremy Sowers | L | 3-8 | 5.70 | 1.50 |
| 7:05 p.m. | | Brian Moehler | R | 11-7 | 4.33 | 1.33 | @ | | Jimmy Barthmaier | R | 0-1 | 27.00 | 3.86 |
| 7:10 p.m. | | Gavin Floyd | R | 16-7 | 3.73 | 1.24 | @ | | Kyle Davies | R | 7-7 | 4.32 | 1.54 |
| 7:10 p.m. | | Pedro Martinez | R | 5-5 | 5.47 | 1.53 | @ | | Jorge Campillo | R | 7-7 | 3.79 | 1.22 |
| 7:10 p.m. | | Chris Young | R | 5-6 | 4.43 | 1.35 | @ | | John Lannan | L | 9-13 | 3.97 | 1.34 |
| 7:10 p.m. | | Joe Blanton | R | 7-12 | 4.82 | 1.42 | @ | | Anibal Sanchez | R | 2-4 | 5.87 | 1.61 |
| 8:05 p.m. | | Dustin Moseley | R | 2-4 | 7.36 | 1.83 | @ | | Vicente Padilla | R | 13-7 | 4.75 | 1.47 |
| 8:05 p.m. | | Doug Davis | L | 6-8 | 4.30 | 1.51 | @ | | Aaron Cook | R | 16-9 | 4.00 | 1.35 |
| 10:10 p.m. | | Brad Hennessey | R | 1-2 | 8.04 | 2.01 | @ | | Hiroki Kuroda | R | 9-10 | 3.77 | 1.22 |
All times are ET.
Out
Rick Ankiel, OF, Cardinals (sports hernia)
Rod Barajas, C, Blue Jays (hamstring)
Adrian Beltre, 3B, Mariners (thumb)
Dallas Braden, SP, A's (groin)
Taylor Buchholz, RP, Rockies (shoulder)
Carlos Guillen, 1B/3B/SS, Tigers (back)
Hong-Chih Kuo, RP, Dodgers (elbow)
Yadier Molina, C, Cardinals (quadriceps)
Fernando Tatis, OF, Mets (shoulder)
B.J. Upton, 2B/OF, Rays (quadriceps)
Jack Wilson, SS, Pirates (finger)
Day-to-day
Milton Bradley, OF, Rangers (wrist)
Brian Buscher, 3B, Twins (thumb)
J.D. Drew, OF, Red Sox (back)
Damion Easley, 2B, Mets (quadriceps)
Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Reds (wrist)
Yunel Escobar, 2B/3B/SS, Braves (hamstring)
Chone Figgins, 3B, Angels (elbow)
Nomar Garciaparra, 1B/3B/SS, Dodgers (knee)
Vladimir Guerrero, OF, Angels (knee)
Mike Lowell, 3B, Red Sox (hip)
Eric Patterson, 2B/OF, A's (hamstring)
Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins (shoulder)
Juan Rivera, OF, Angels (hip)
Michael Young, SS, Rangers (finger)
Hitters: Current Cubs have combined to bat .333 (37-for-111) with eight home runs and a .996 OPS in their careers against the Cardinals' Joel Pineiro, so load up in a home game for them. Especially attractive are Derrek Lee, 5-for-7 (.714 BA) with two doubles and a homer in his career against Pineiro; Alfonso Soriano, 14-for-42 (.333 BA) with three homers and a 1.021 OPS against the right-hander; and Ryan Theriot, 3-for-8 (.375 BA) with two doubles against Pineiro. Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner seem to be getting healthy, and each boasts a decent track record against the Tigers' Justin Verlander -- and remember, most of their numbers were accrued in past seasons, when Verlander was a much more effective pitcher. Martinez is a lifetime .300 hitter (9-for-30) with four homers and a 1.089 OPS against the Tigers' "ace," while Hafner is a .231 hitter (6-for-26) but with two homers against Verlander. Also, take a look at Shin-Soo Choo, batting .306 with a .962 OPS against right-handers, and .316/1.028 at home, this season. The Tigers still clobber left-handers, batting .285 with an .825 OPS against them as a team; the latter number is second in baseball only to the Red Sox (.855). For that reason, load up on their multitude of righty sluggers, especially since they've clubbed the Indians' Jeremy Sowers in two meetings this season (0-2, 10.24 ERA). Nate McLouth is a lifetime .500 hitter (5-for-10) with three doubles and a walk against the Astros' Brian Moehler. Adam LaRoche also handles Moehler nicely, batting .381 (8-for-21) with a homer and a 1.125 OPS in his career against the right-hander. No way you can expect another outing from Kyle Davies like he had this past Monday; the Royals right-hander has six quality starts in 19 tries all season, and he has a 6.64 ERA and five homers allowed in 20 1/3 innings in his career against the White Sox. Paul Konerko, now healthy, is 5-for-10 (.500 BA) with a home run in his career against Davies, while Jim Thome is 3-for-6 (.500 BA) with two doubles and a homer versus the right-hander. David DeJesus is batting .367 (22-for-60) with an .894 OPS in 16 games in September, and he's 4-for-9 (.444 BA) with a double in his career against the White Sox's Gavin Floyd. Not like you'd ever sit him, but David Wright is the kind of guy primed to carry you to a fantasy title. He's a .304 hitter with a .926 OPS this September (.352 with a 1.034 OPS last September), and he's 3-for-5 with two home runs in his career against the Braves' Jorge Campillo. Ryan Zimmerman is 3-for-8 (.375 BA) with a double and a home run in his career against the Padres' Chris Young. He's also batting .300 (18-for-60) with three home runs and an .897 OPS in 15 games this September. The Phillies sure seem to own the Marlins' Anibal Sanchez, 0-3 with a 10.69 ERA and 2.31 WHIP in four career starts against them. The big three of Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley are a combined 12-for-23 (.522 BA) with four doubles, one triple and one home run against the right-hander. Current Angels have combined to bat .343 (69-for-201) with 10 home runs and a .935 OPS against the Rangers' Vicente Padilla. Mark Teixeira is 2-for-4 against the right-hander, with both hits home runs, and don't overlook Vladimir Guerrero's track record in Rangers Ballpark. He's a .389 hitter with 13 home runs and a 1.184 OPS in 42 career games there, so hope his knee allows him to play. Scorching-hot Andre Ethier is 5-for-9 (.556 BA) with a home run and four walks in his career against the Giants' Brad Hennessey, and a .366 hitter (52-for-142) with nine homers, 27 RBIs and a 1.128 OPS in 35 games since Aug. 1. Only once before in CC Sabathia's career has he pitched on three days' rest, as he will on Saturday, and it came in 2001 when he was being lined up for the postseason, and held to a limited pitch count. Sabathia was a success back then, tossing five innings of one-hit, one-run baseball, and while he might not do that here, do you really want to sit a guy who has pitched this well since joining the National League? No, I don't either.
Pitchers: It's a shame for Jon Lester owners that his counterpart for Saturday is Roy Halladay -- and vice versa, really -- because his win potential takes a hit going up against one of the best pitchers in the game. Lester has a 3.24 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in four career starts against the Blue Jays, while Halladay has a 2.20 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in four starts against the Red Sox this season. Toronto is at home, so the W edge has to go to Halladay, but both make solid starts. Ted Lilly is riding high on back-to-back astonishingly good starts, including an eight-inning, one-run, five-hit masterpiece to beat these Cardinals in St. Louis on Sept. 10. The Cubs might be taking aim at clinching the National League Central title as early as Saturday, so expect more great stuff from the left-hander. Johnny Cueto might have quality starts in each of his two appearances against the Brewers this season, but those came in April, and today, it seems the Reds are ultra-concerned about his workload. It's a risky play for him pitching at Great American Ball Park with games so important to the Brewers right now. Games like Scott Kazmir's performance against the Red Sox this past Monday aren't going to come around all that often, which is why the smart play is to expect a bounce-back effort from him against the Twins. Besides, he's still 7-2 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 13 home starts this season. Thing is, Kazmir's poor last start does bode well for his opponent, the Twins' Kevin Slowey, who actually has a considerably better full-season WHIP. Kazmir might remain the favorite to get that all-important W, but it's no lock, not with Slowey 5-2 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in his past eight starts. Both remain useful. The Indians routinely pound Justin Verlander, in the midst of a terribly disappointing season. In his career, the right-hander is 4-9 with a 6.59 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 14 starts against Cleveland. This season alone, he has lost four of five starts against them. Steer clear. What a season for Gavin Floyd: 6-2 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 12 starts since the All-Star break. He can surely handle the Royals' offense, and he knows wins are at a premium with the White Sox in a tight race in the division. Expect Floyd to be sharp. Chris Young is 2-1 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in three career starts against the Nationals, but he'll face a challenge in the wins category going up against John Lannan, who was lights-out this past Monday. Play Young in what should be a pitchers' duel. Aaron Cook might be the better bet for the win in the Diamondbacks-Rockies game than Doug Davis, but that might be a high-scoring affair. Cook is 3-4 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 11 starts against Arizona since the beginning of 2006. Plus, Coors Field tends to be extremely hitter-friendly in the month of September; last season, the Rockies and their opponents combined for 125 runs in the final 11 games played there (11.4 per contest, or 5.7 per team).
Hitters: There's little reason to think rookie Aaron Cunningham can't hit the Mariners' Carlos Silva. Cunningham is batting .316 with 11 RBIs and two stolen bases in 15 games since being promoted, and Silva has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season. Ryan Shealy seems to have emerged as the go-to option among the Royals' first-base candidates, starting five consecutive games and batting .500 (11-for-22) with five homers and 10 RBIs during that span. So long as he remains in the lineup, he's worth a look. Alberto Callaspo is another Royal capitalizing upon an expanded September opportunity. He's batting .342 (25-for-73) with 11 RBIs in his past 19 games. Hank Blalock is 2-for-5 with a double, a home run and a walk against the Angels' Ervin Santana this season, and a lifetime .385 hitter (10-for-26) with three homers and a 1.407 OPS against the right-hander. Kendry Morales is 5-for-10 (.500 BA) with a double and a home run in his career against the Rangers' Vicente Padilla. Expect him to sneak in a start at either first base or designated hitter, especially with the Angels looking to rest some of their regulars for the playoffs. The Rockies will almost assuredly get Ryan Spilborghs into their lineup against the Diamondbacks' Doug Davis, considering he's a .344 hitter (55-for-160) with eight home runs against left-handers since the beginning of last season. My bet: Brad Hawpe is the Rockies player who sits. Both Chad Tracy and Chris Snyder represent must-starts for the Diamondbacks, accounting for the matchup. Tracy is 15-for-30 (.500 BA) with seven doubles in his career against the Rockies' Aaron Cook, and a .347 hitter (43-for-124) with seven homers and a .957 OPS in 31 career games at Coors Field. Snyder, meanwhile, is a lifetime .600 hitter (12-for-20) with a homer and a 1.436 OPS against Cook, and a .316 hitter (25-for-79) with two homers and an .864 OPS at Coors.
Pitchers: If you can stomach potentially so-so ERA and WHIP contributions, Brian Moehler should provide a better-than-50/50 chance at a win in Pittsburgh. He's 2-0 in three starts against the Pirates this season, albeit with a 6.91 ERA; he's 6-3 with a 4.39 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 12 starts since the All-Star break, and his opponent is the inexperienced Jimmy Barthmaier. Sounds like a good mix. Pedro Martinez's Aug. 21 start against the Braves wasn't a bad one for fantasy, even if it was a no-decision (7 IP, 7 H's, 4 ERs, 6 K's). Considering current Braves have combined to bat .188 (28-for-149) with six homers and a .605 OPS against the right-hander, Martinez warrants a look in deeper leagues, especially with his Mets in need of precious wins right now. Opponent Jorge Campillo, besides, is 1-3 with a 6.91 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in his past eight starts, showing definite signs of wearing down late in the season. John Lannan stymied a Mets offense this past Monday that is much more potent than these Padres, so ride the hot streak. San Diego as a team is batting .233 with a .667 OPS against left-handers, dead last in both categories in the National League. Joe Blanton has yet to lose in 11 starts since joining the Phillies, and that streak seems unlikely to be snapped on Saturday, not in a pitching-friendly venue like Dolphin Stadium. He has allowed four runs or fewer in each of his past 10 starts, making him an adequate deep-mixed or NL-only option. Hiroki Kuroda tossed eight innings of one-run, eight-hit baseball against the Giants on Aug. 9, albeit in a team loss, and his 4-2 record, 2.50 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in nine starts since Aug. 1 demonstrates how nicely he's capitalizing upon a fantasy-friendly schedule these final weeks. A home start against the Giants qualifies as another slam-dunk play.
There are two weatherproof games on Saturday -- Red Sox-Blue Jays and Twins-Rays -- but not like it matters much, since there's barely a lick of rain expected anywhere in the country. Only two spots are even remote threats of rain: Florida, which will deal with scattered thunderstorms for much of the weekend, though probably not enough to wash out a game, especially not one with such playoff implications; and Colorado, where the chance of scattered thunderstorms is a mere 20 percent.
Tristan H. Cockcroft covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.


