May 19, 2007, 9:17 AM

Sixty Feet, Six Inches: Breaking Down Rates and Ratios

Comment Print Share
By David Young
Special to ESPN.com
Archive

The bulk of reader e-mails concerning starting pitchers that I receive usually falls into one of three categories: (1) "Should I drop Pitcher A for Pitcher B?" (2) "Which of these pitchers should I get off the waiver wire?" and (3) "Should I start Pitcher A and/or Pitcher B today?" I try to answer as many as I can, but some weeks are heavier than others and I can't get to all of them. However, here's a good rule to follow: When in doubt, go for the strikeout guy.

Just a side note: if you're looking for day-to-day advice on whom to start or pick up, make sure to check out "Daily Notes" written by Tristan Cockcroft, Adam Madison and myself. Those other two guys are wicked smart.

Show Your K

In fantasy baseball, a pitcher with a high strikeout rate will not only feed one of your pitching categories, he'll likely keep his ratios down, and on the right team see good win totals. Also, of the four most-used starting pitching categories -- wins, strikeouts, WHIP and ERA -- it is the one that is completely in the hands of the pitcher. The other three are dependent on either the defense or the bullpen, or both.

Of course, there are counter-examples of pitchers with low strikeout rates that have succeeded, but as I discussed in the preseason with Chien-Ming Wang, if the strikeout level is too low, the odds are against anything more than short-term success. Also, there are strikeout pitchers who have little fantasy value because they inefficiently reach 100 pitches by the fifth inning, but they are identifiable by their bad ratios.

Finding Mr. Right

The general rule is to get National League pitchers because their ratios will be lower and their strikeouts will be higher than their American League counterparts because the former league requires pitchers to bat and the latter has the designated hitter and more offense-friendly parks. The recent data shows that this might be true in general, but the gap isn't as pronounced as you would think:

National League
K/9 (Starters)
American League
K/9 (Starters)
National League
ERA (Starters)
American League
ERA (Starters)
2004 6.46 5.97 4.43 4.84
2005 6.28 5.76 4.23 4.52
2006 6.34 6.07 4.65 4.73
2007* 6.27 6.12 4.14 4.38
*Through May 16, 2007

So don't be afraid of picking up American League pitchers for strikeouts. Next we need to decide what criteria we'll use for our search.

I'm going to use a cutoff of 7.50 K/9, which is equivalent to a five-strikeout, six-inning start, which is a respectable outing. I'll also use a floor of 10 innings pitched and one game started. We'll then use WHIP to eliminate pitchers that might be good at striking out batters, but bad at preventing baserunners and runs. I'll err towards over-inclusiveness, and make the cutoff at 1.40 with the understanding that if our whole staff had a WHIP of 1.40 we'd be in last place, but we're just looking for one member to add to our staff. Lastly, I'll remove the obvious names -- anyone who is owned in 90 percent or more ESPN leagues -- because we're identifying potential waiver wire pickups.

Knowing all this, let's look at the pitchers that fit our criteria. For the "Pick Up?" column I've designated the type of league in which the pitcher is worth picking up off the waiver wire, and if there's a plus sign, he has potential but not immediate value in mixed leagues.

PITCHER TEAM IP K/9 WHIP PCT OWNED PICK UP?
Randy Johnson ARI 30 11.1 1.13 83.7 Mixed
Randy Wolf LAD 53 10.53 1.28 48 Mixed
Shaun Marcum TOR 22.1 10.5 0.5 1.4 AL+
Phil Hughes (DL) NYY 10.2 9.28 1.03 21.3 AL+
Oliver Perez NYM 42 9.21 1.12 28.5 Mixed
Jason Jennings (DL) HOU 12 9 1.17 2.7 NL+
Dallas Braden OAK 14.1 8.79 1.4 0.4 Watch
A.J. Burnett TOR 56.1 8.79 1.31 66.7 Mixed
Claudio Vargas MIL 40 8.76 1.29 13.4 NL+
Wandy Rodriguez HOU 43.2 8.24 1.21 0.9 NL+
Josh Towers TOR 31 8.22 1.35 0.1 NO!
James Shields TB 60.1 8.06 0.9 89.9 Mixed
Angel Guzman CHC 17.2 7.84 1.35 0.6 NL
Jason Bergmann WAS 49 7.71 1 3.3 NL
Daniel Cabrera BAL 59 7.63 1.32 33.6 AL
Anthony Reyes STL 39 7.62 1.32 2.1 No
John Danks CHW 41.2 7.56 1.32 0.2 No

If Randy Johnson is available in your league, he shouldn't be. He may have another disabled list stint in him, but his ceiling is too high to ignore & Randy Wolf is not a one-strikeout-per-inning pitcher, so enjoy it while it lasts. However, he should pitch strongly all season & Shaun Marcum was on a pitch count in his first start and had to leave a no-hitter. He's definitely worth a pickup in AL-only leagues & The much-touted Phil Hughes is on the DL, but is still in the Yankees' plans this season & We've all been burned by Oliver Perez, but he finally appears to be in the right situation to succeed. At the first sign of trouble the Mets have gone to the bullpen. In Pittsburgh, he was left to fix his own messes, which rarely happened & NL-only league owners shouldn't forget about Jason Jennings and should snap him up if an owner impatiently dropped him. He'll return from the disabled list with a stronger offense and bullpen than he had when he left, which likely gives him value in mixed leagues as well.

Dallas Braden is in a good situation in Oakland for a young starting pitcher, but his outings seem less impressive. Watch him for a string of good starts before considering picking him up & A.J. Burnett is an injury waiting to happen, so if you pick him up, have a plan B & Claudio Vargas is just the latest star pupil of pitching coach Mike Maddux. Vargas has value in deeper mixed leagues & Wandy Rodriguez might be the most underappreciated starter on the list. He got hit hard by Cincinnati and Milwaukee on the road, and had a couple of no-decisions in April that likely would have been wins in May with a better Astros team. Snap him up in NL-only and consider him in mixed leagues before more people discover him & Josh Towers has gone from starter to bullpen mop-up duty. The next stop is waivers. Forget about him & I steered people away from James Shields in April because his team puts a hard ceiling of 12 wins on him, but his other numbers are too good to pass up.

Angel Guzman eventually will be a good fantasy pitcher. Until then, he'll give you good strikeouts for a strong Cubs team. However, I don't envision him having value in mixed leagues this year & Jason Bergmann's trade value is currently at a peak. His pitching won't collapse, but reality will catch up. Consider picking him up in the short term for NL-only, but do not trade anyone of value for him & Yes, I have no way of eliminating Daniel Cabrera from my list no matter how much I hate him for fantasy purposes. If you want to ride the roller coaster, go for it & Anthony Reyes on last year's Cardinals is worth a roster spot. Reyes on this year's is not. Leave him on the waiver wire until St. Louis can turn things around & I worry about John Danks' seven home runs in seven games so far. While his strikeouts will help, I still can't recommend him.

Quick Pitches

The pickup of the week is the Mets' Jorge Sosa. Like Oliver Perez he's burned us before, but also like Perez, he might have found a good situation in New York.

If you're hurting for starting pitching in NL-only, consider the recently-traded Byung-Hyun Kim. Dolphin Stadium is a pitchers' park and Kim has never had a problem recording strikeouts. If you do pick him up, though, bench him for a few starts to see how he mentally and physically adjusts to the trade. If the baseball gods smile upon you, he might even get the odd save now and then.

David Young is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com and TalentedMrRoto.com. He can be reached at MrSnappy@TalentedMrRoto.com