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July 13, 2007, 2:51 PM

Sixty Feet, Six Inches: Indicator stats

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By Sean Allen
Special to ESPN.com
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Strikeouts, wins, saves, ERA and WHIP. In a large majority of fantasy leagues, those are the only statistics a pitcher can contribute in. So why the heck do we keep track of so much other stuff?

With the All-Star break, I thought now was as good a time as anyway to take a quick look at some of the indicator stats. A pitcher's ERA or WHIP doesn't always reflect how well he is pitching. We can often look at some of the indicator stats and see if someone is due for an improvement. So let's have a look at the league leaders in some different statistical categories.

A K-9 rate is one of simplest and won't reveal too many surprises. It's just a quick calculation and is very self-explanatory.

As you can see, most league leaders in K-9 also show up on the strikeout leaderboard. The only names on here that can be had for a slight discount are Kazmir, Hernandez and Vazquez. If you need that ace pitcher for your fantasy team and can't afford to pay a steep price for a Johan or a Peavy, both Hernandez and Vazquez make good settling points. Kazmir, on the other hand, is still throwing too many pitches and walking too many batters.

K-BB helps identify who has control. The higher the rate, the more the pitcher can spot his pitches wherever he wants to.

Byrd is the far-and-away leader for one simple reason. He practically doesn't walk anybody. The guy to highlight here is Shields. If your pitching staff needs a star for the rest of the season, trade for Shields. He will be cheaper than all the other aces out there, and I even think he outpitches Santana for the rest of the season. Seriously. All the indicators are there. Shields trails only Sabathia by a touch for second place on this list, he is 18th on the K-9 board and the Devil Rays are a young team that looks like they will win a lot more in the second half. Bang-for-your-buck pitching the rest of the way, I'll take Shields over anyone else. Vazquez also shows up on this chart, further driving home the point that he is underrated and coming on strong.

ESPN added DIPS and DIPS percentage to the stats page in 2004. The theory behind DIPS was developed by Voros McCraken and has been widely accepted as a good indicator of a pitcher's skill level. The very complicated DIPS formula calculates the pitchers ERA based only on things the defense has no hand in (like home runs, strikeouts and walks). The simplified idea is to judge the pitcher only on the variables he alone controls. DIPS percentage is simply comparing DIPS ERA to regular ERA. If the number is higher than 1.00, DIPS says the pitcher is having his numbers aided by solid defense and good fortune with where the ball is hit. If the number is lower than 1.00, the pitcher is being let down by his defense on occasion or is just having bad luck with respect to where the ball is hit.

One important note here is that DIPS percentage is only an indicator of which way the pitcher's numbers would trend if his approach, his luck or his defense started changing. Just because DIPS says Dan Haren's ERA should be a lot higher, it doesn't mean it's definitely going to rise.

This chart shows the pitchers whose DIPS ERA indicates they have been helped by good defense. Lowry surprises me somewhat. He is having trouble finding the strike zone and has walked almost as many batters as he has struck out this season. In fact, the whole list outside of Santana looks like guys you might consider selling high. Penny especially should be shopped hard. Rarely do you see such a pronounced split pre- and post-All-Star break as we saw with Penny last season. Haren and Young can't possibly be as good as they have been for the rest of the season, but you are unlikely to find any takers for their value. One concerning thing about Santana is the home runs he is allowing this year. He has already allowed 17 and is on pace to allow more than 30. His previous career high is 24. It might not sound like a lot, but as DIPS indicates, home runs are one of the few things the pitcher has complete control over.

Let's also have a look the other end of the DIPS percentage board. Here are the top 10 pitchers whose DIPS percentage would indicate a positive improvement to ERA might be on the way.

It becomes extremely self-evident with one look at this chart that to have a significant improvement to his ERA, a pitcher has to have a poor ERA to begin with. I'm going to ignore Padilla, Wells, Duke, Millwood and Perez because their WHIPs are too high to hold out much hope for them. Bush has been having tough luck all season and has been slowly but surely improving his outings. He seemed to have issues from the stretch that have been worked out. I'd go after Bush pretty hard. You just know Halladay is in for an improvement soon as well. The strikeouts may be gone, but he is still limiting walks. Actually, Halladay is one of the better trade targets if you are going after wins. His 10 already are super impressive considering his numbers have been down, his DIPS percentage shows that he has had bad luck and he has already had a DL stint. The Doc's owner in your league might prefer a pitcher with slightly better peripherals in exchange for him, but you'd win that deal.

Sean Allen is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com and TalentedMrRoto.com. He can be reached at Alla_Rino@TalentedMrRoto.com