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Fantasy Forecaseter: Joba Chamberlain a two-start option

5/31/2008

On tap: What a Tuesday it'll be in New York, as Joba Chamberlain makes his first-ever start for the Yankees, while Pedro Martinez makes his first start in two months after recovering from a hamstring injury. They'll both be two-start pitchers, as will Justin Masterson, the Red Sox rookie who pitched so masterfully in his first two spot-start appearances this season. And if that's not enough, John Smoltz will probably be back on Monday, ready to close for the Braves for the first time since 2004.

Quick click by section: Game breakdowns | Hitters' matchups | Base stealers' matchups | Pitchers' matchups | Two-start pitchers

They got chili dogs over there? Game breakdowns

Note: Weather reports are based on upcoming weather forecasts (through Friday), as well as historical trends in those cities. "Poor weather" doesn't guarantee rainouts; those are merely the teams with the highest probability of one or more.

Hit like Mays: Hitters' matchups

Note: Hitter-friendly ballparks are based primarily on recent statistical data (2005-08) comparing home/road performance, much the same method as our Park Factor page. Some personal opinion does go into making ballpark selections.

Run like Hayes: Base stealers' matchups

Note: Matchups are determined by examining both an opponent's catcher and pitching staff. Obviously, teams like the Indians (catcher: Victor Martinez) and Mets (Brian Schneider) rate as tough teams to run on, while teams like the Dodgers (Russell Martin) and Orioles (Ramon Hernandez) rate as easy teams to run on.

Give 'em the heater: Pitchers' matchups

Note: As with the hitter-friendly ballparks, pitcher-friendly ballparks are based mostly on 2005-08 data, with some personal opinion involved.

Two-start notes: Consider this week's mixed-league cut-off point about No. 24, Jason Marquis. No. 20 (Joba Chamberlain) and No. 22 (Pedro Martinez) might be risky, but their matchups are too favorable to ignore. ... I'm assuming the Rockies skip fifth starter Glendon Rusch this turn through the rotation, giving Jeff Francis a second start. He's not a recommended Week 10 option in any format, though.


Tristan H. Cockcroft covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.