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July 26, 2008, 10:50 PM

Fantasy Forecaster: Previewing Week 18

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By Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN.com
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On tap: Major League Baseball's non-waiver trade deadline arrives on Thursday, July 31, at 4 p.m. ET. (I know, the whole waivers thing is complicated, but suffice it to say, this one is an important deadline.) Unfortunately for fantasy, that lands right in the middle of Week 18, and complicates our planning somewhat. Rotations could easily change as trades are completed, and hitters could lose a day or two of action as they travel to meet their new teams. In other words, this isn't a week to get too cozy with scheduling, because things are bound to change midweek, at least a little.

By the way, what an interesting week this one will be for the Los Angeles Angels. They play seven games on the road -- three at Boston and four at the New York Yankees -- and have had differing results against these opponents since the start of their 2002 World Championship season. Against the Red Sox, the Angels are 26-37 (postseason included); against the Yankees, they're 35-28 during the same span.

Healing starters is the other big headline of Week 18. We've already seen Fausto Carmona return from the DL, and he'll make his second start since being activated when he hosts the Tigers on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Astros' Roy Oswalt will be activated Monday to host the Reds, a team he routinely dominates; the Padres' Chris Young will return to action Tuesday against the Diamondbacks, and the Rockies' Jeff Francis could be back in time to make a start during the weekend series at Florida.

Finally, the Cubs and Brewers battle for National League Central supremacy with a four-game series in Milwaukee to begin the week. Among the marquee starters scheduled: For the Cubs, Carlos Zambrano (Tuesday), Ryan Dempster (Wednesday) and Rich Harden (Thursday). For the Brewers, CC Sabathia (Monday) and Ben Sheets (Tuesday).

Quick click by section:

Game breakdowns | Hitters' matchups | Comfort Zone: Hitter value plays

Base stealers' matchups | Pitchers' matchups | Two-start pitchers

Note: Weather reports are based on upcoming weather forecasts (through Friday), as well as historical trends in those cities. "Poor weather" doesn't guarantee rainouts; rather, it means that those are merely the teams with the highest probability of one or more games being affected.

Note: Hitter-friendly ballparks are based primarily on recent statistical data (2005-2008) comparing home/road performance, much the same method as our Park Factor page. Some personal opinion does go into making ballpark selections.

Good for hitters	Poor for hitters
Mariners (@TEX-4, BAL-3)	Angels (@BOS-3, @NYY-4)
Mets (@FLA-3, @HOU-3)	Astros (CIN-3, NYM-3)
Rangers (SEA-4, TOR-3)	Giants (@LAD-3, @SD-3)
Reds (@HOU-3, @WAS-3)	Orioles (@NYY-3, @SEA-3)
Games at hitter-friendly ballparks
Chase Field (ARI): No games
Citizens Bank Park (PHI): No games
Coors Field (COL): No games
Great American Ball Park (CIN): No games
Rangers Ballpark (TEX): Mariners, July 28-31; Blue Jays, Aug. 1-3
U.S. Cellular Field (CHW): No games
Wrigley Field (CHC): Pirates, Aug. 1-3
Lefty-heavy	Righty-heavy
Cardinals (4 LHP, 3 RHP)	Angels (6 RHP, 1 LHP)
Cubs (3 LHP, 4 RHP)	Blue Jays (6 RHP, 0 LHP)
Dodgers (3 LHP, 4 RHP)	Braves (6 RHP, 1 LHP)
Indians (3 LHP, 4 RHP)	Brewers (6 RHP, 1 LHP)
Marlins (3 LHP, 3 RHP, 1 TBD)	Diamondbacks (6 RHP, 1 LHP)
Red Sox (3 LHP, 3 RHP)	Giants (6 RHP, 0 LHP)
Royals (4 LHP, 2 RHP)	Rangers (7 RHP, 0 LHP)
Tigers (3 LHP, 4 RHP)	White Sox (6 RHP, 1 LHP)
Twins (5 LHP, 2 RHP)	Yankees (6 RHP, 1 LHP)

Looking for a decent hitter value pick for this week? Here are 10 strong matchup choices among the beneath-the-elite crop:

Note: Matchups are determined by examining both an opponent's catcher and pitching staff. Obviously, teams like the Cardinals (catcher: Yadier Molina) and Tigers (Ivan Rodriguez) rate as tough teams to run on, while teams like the Phillies (Chris Coste/Carlos Ruiz) and White Sox (A.J. Pierzynski) rate as easy teams to run on.

Note: As with the hitter-friendly ballparks, pitcher-friendly ballparks are based mostly on 2005-2008 data, with some personal opinion involved.

Good for pitchers	Poor for pitchers
Dodgers (SF-3, ARI-4)	Angels (@BOS-3, @NYY-4)
Padres (ARI-3, SF-3)	Braves (STL-4, MIL-3)
Red Sox (LAA-3, OAK-3)	Mariners (@TEX-4, BAL-3)
White Sox (@MIN-4, @KC-3)	Marlins (NYM-3, COL-4)
Games at pitcher-friendly ballparks
Busch Stadium (STL): Phillies, Aug. 1-3
Dolphin Stadium (FLA): Mets, July 28-30; Rockies, July 31-Aug. 3
McAfee Coliseum (OAK): Royals, July 28-30
Metrodome (MIN): White Sox, July 28-31; Indians, Aug. 1-3
Petco Park (SD): Diamondbacks, July 28-30; Giants, Aug. 1-3
Safeco Field (SEA): Orioles, Aug. 1-3
Shea Stadium (NYM): No games

Two-start notes: This week's two-start pitching pool is far deeper than last's. I'd easily dig as deep as No. 18 (Kevin Slowey) in mixed formats, and think a case can be made to start almost anyone down to No. 26 (Greg Maddux) in those formats, depending on the depth of your mixed league. [e] I'm assuming the Blue Jays will skip John Parrish this time through the rotation, giving both A.J. Burnett and Roy Halladay two starts. For one thing, Burnett is a candidate to be traded, so Parrish might be held back as a potential stand-in for him on Saturday. [e] There's an outside chance Brad Penny might be able to rejoin the Dodgers' rotation in Jason Johnson's spot on Sunday. [e] Carlos Silva is tentatively scheduled to start on Tuesday if his back holds up. Otherwise, Ryan Rowland-Smith might be a candidate to step in. [e] If Pedro Martinez lands on the DL, the Mets could bring back Oliver Perez to pitch on Sunday, giving him two starts. He'd rank 10th on my list, between Hiroki Kuroda and Mark Buehrle, if that happens. [e] With Kip Wells bullpen-bound, the Rockies will probably pick a fill-in for Tuesday and then bring back Jeff Francis the next time that spot in the rotation comes up. [e] The White Sox could get Jose Contreras back in the latter stages of the week, which would cost the unappealing Clayton Richard his second start on Sunday. [e] I don't think there's a team with a greater chance of changing its two-start pitchers due to trades this week than the Yankees. Darrell Rasner, tentatively scheduled for Monday and Saturday, seems most likely to be bumped if the team acquires another starter.

Tristan H. Cockcroft covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.