
Fantasy Forecaster: Previewing Week 21
On tap: In a bit of a scheduling anomaly, we see the first of back-to-back five-game weeks. Last week the Angels and Mariners had just five games during the fantasy week (Monday through Sunday); this week it's the St. Louis Cardinals who have the unfortunate circumstance (for us, anyway) of having a short Week 21. It's the only team to play that few; by comparison, seven teams have seven games apiece.
There isn't a lot of playoff-related intrigue to Week 21, although the Rays and Angels square off for three at Tampa Bay to begin the week. Keep in mind the Rays swept the Angels in a three-game series at home May 10-12, totaling 12 runs to the Angels' five. Tampa Bay also boasts an impressive 45-17 home record.
Among healing players we can expect back: The Yankees' Phil Hughes (candidate to start Tuesday or Saturday), the Mets' Billy Wagner (likely on Monday) and the Cardinals' Adam Wainwright (return date depends on whether he's a starter or reliever).
Quick click by section:
Game breakdowns | Hitters' matchups | Comfort zone: Hitter value plays
Base stealers' matchups | Pitchers' matchups | Two-start pitchers
Note: Weather reports are based on upcoming weather forecasts (through Friday), as well as historical trends in those cities. "Poor weather" doesn't guarantee rainouts; those are merely the teams with the highest probability of one or more.
| Seven games | |
| Angels (@TB-3, MIN-4) | Giants (@ATL-1, FLA-3, SD-3) |
| Athletics (@MIN-3, @SEA-4) | Mariners (@CHW-3, OAK-4) |
| Braves (SF-1, @NYM-3, @STL-3) | Mets (@PIT-1, ATL-3, HOU-3) |
| Twins (OAK-3, @LAA-4) | |
| Six games, all home | Six games, all road |
| Blue Jays (NYY-3, BOS-3) | Astros (@MIL-3, @NYM-3) |
| Brewers (HOU-3, PIT-3) | Marlins (@SF-3, @ARI-3) |
| Cubs (CIN-3, WAS-3) | Nationals (@PHI-3, @CHC-3) |
| Diamondbacks (SD-3, FLA-3) | Padres (@ARI-3, @SF-3) |
| Orioles (BOS-3, NYY-3) | Red Sox (@BAL-3, @TOR-3) |
| Phillies (WAS-3, LAD-3) | Reds (@CHC-3, @COL-3) |
| Rangers (DET-3, CLE-3) | Tigers (@TEX-3, @KC-3) |
| White Sox (SEA-3, TB-3) | Yankees (@TOR-3, @BAL-3) |
| Five games | |
| Cardinals (PIT-2, ATL-3) | |
| Good weather (* -- weatherproof) | Riskier weather |
| Angels (@TB-3, MIN-4) | Braves (SF-1, @NYM-3, @STL-3) |
| Athletics * (@MIN-3, @SEA-4) | Cardinals (PIT-2, ATL-3) |
| Blue Jays * (NYY-3, BOS-3) | Cubs (CIN-3, WAS-3) |
| Brewers * (HOU-3, PIT-3) | Mets (@PIT-1, ATL-3, HOU-3) |
| Diamondbacks * (SD-3, FLA-3) | Nationals (@PHI-3, @CHC-3) |
| Giants (@ATL-1, FLA-3, SD-3) | Rangers (DET-3, CLE-3) |
| Marlins (@SF-3, @ARI-3) | Tigers (@TEX-3, @KC-3) |
| Padres (@ARI-3, @SF-3) | White Sox (SEA-3, TB-3) |
| Twins (OAK-3, @LAA-4) | |
Note: Hitter-friendly ballparks are based primarily on recent statistical data (2005 to 2008) comparing home/road performance, much the same method as our Park Factor page. Some personal opinion does go into making ballpark selections.
| Good for hitters | Poor for hitters |
| Games at hitter-friendly ballparks | |
| Chase Field (ARI): Padres, Aug. 19-21; Marlins, Aug. 22-24 | |
| Citizens Bank Park (PHI): Nationals, Aug. 19-21; Dodgers, Aug. 22-24 | |
| Coors Field (COL): Reds, Aug. 22-24 | |
| Great American Ball Park (CIN): No games | |
| Rangers Ballpark (TEX): Tigers, Aug. 18-20; Indians, Aug. 22-24 | |
| U.S. Cellular Field (CHW): Mariners, Aug. 18-20; Rays, Aug. 22-24 | |
| Wrigley Field (CHC): Reds, Aug. 19-21; Nationals, Aug. 22-24 | |
| Lefty-heavy | Righty-heavy |
| Astros (4 LHP, 2 RHP) | Angels (6 RHP, 1 LHP) |
| Athletics (4 LHP, 3 RHP) | Cardinals (4 RHP, 0 LHP, 1 TBD) |
| Brewers (4 LHP, 2 RHP) | Diamondbacks (6 RHP, 0 LHP) |
| Dodgers (3 LHP, 3 RHP) | Giants (6 RHP, 1 LHP) |
| Mariners (3 LHP, 4 RHP) | Rockies (6 RHP, 0 LHP) |
| Mets (3 LHP, 4 RHP) | Tigers (5 RHP, 0 LHP, 1 TBD) |
| Rangers (3 LHP, 3 RHP) | |
| Royals (3 LHP, 3 RHP) | |
Looking for a decent hitter value pick for this week? Here are 10 strong matchup choices, among the beneath-the-elite crop:
| Hitter (Team) | Schedule | Recent stats (since?) |
| Marlon Byrd (TEX) | DET-3, CLE-3 | (Aug. 3) 11 G's, .500 BA, 1.323 OPS |
| 2008 home: 41 G's, .328 BA, 6 HRs, 1.009 OPS ... 2008 versus LHP: 110 PAs, .281 BA, 5 HRs, .884 OPS | ||
| David Dellucci (CLE) | KC-3, @TEX-3 | (Aug. 2) 8 G's, .464 BA, 1.321 OPS |
| June 2-5, 2008 at Rangers Ballpark: 4 G's, 6-for-14 (.429 BA), 2 HRs ... 2008 versus RHP: .263 BA, .773 OPS | ||
| Mike Jacobs (FLA) | @SF-3, @ARI-3 | (July 27) 16 G's, .308 BA, 1.112 OPS |
| Career at Chase Field: 11 G's, .326 BA, 4 HRs, 1.062 OPS ... 2008 road: 49 G's, .266 BA, 13 HRs, .885 OPS | ||
| Matt Joyce (DET) | @TEX-3, @KC-3 | (July 9) 30 G's, .310 BA, .966 OPS |
| 2008 at Kauffman Stadium: 6 G's, 8-for-22 (.364 BA), 3 HRs ... 2008 versus RHP: .265 BA, .881 OPS | ||
| Jeff Kent (LAD) | COL-3, @PHI-3 | (July 29) 15 G's, .411 BA, 1.004 OPS |
| Career at Citizens Bank Park: 11 G's, .326 BA, 12 RBIs, .933 OPS ... 2008 versus LHP: .291 BA, .805 OPS | ||
| Kevin Kouzmanoff (SD) | @ARI-3, @SF-3 | (July 17) 26 Gs, .299 BA, 6 HRs |
| Career at Chase Field: 14 G's, .296 BA, .974 OPS ... 2008 road: 55 G's, .317 BA, 8 HRs, 33 RBIs, .846 OPS | ||
| Lastings Milledge (WAS) | @PHI-3, @CHC-3 | (Aug. 1) 14 G's, .370 BA, 5 HRs |
| Career at Citizens Bank Park: 11 G's, .294 BA, .796 OPS ... 2008 road: 48 G's, .265 BA, 6 HRs, .715 OPS | ||
| Corey Patterson (CIN) | @CHC-3, @COL-3 | (Aug. 2) 12 G's, .268 BA, 2 HRs |
| Career at Coors Field: 12 G's, .333 BA, 5 HRs, 1.076 OPS ... Career at Wrigley: 299 G's, .254 BA, 39 HRs | ||
| Ryan Theriot (CHC) | CIN-3, WAS-3 | (July 18) 25 G's, .319 BA, .817 OPS |
| 2008 home: 57 G's, .336 BA, 39 R's, .799 OPS ... Career versus CIN: 34 G's, .364 BA, 3 HRs, .915 OPS | ||
| Chad Tracy (ARI) | SD-3, FLA-3 | (July 1) 34 G's, .313 BA, .847 OPS |
| Career home: 283 G's, .307 BA, .869 OPS ... Career versus RHP: .306 BA, .866 OPS, 58 of 70 HRs | ||
| All hitters statistics are through Thursday. | ||
Note: Matchups are determined by examining both an opponent's catcher and pitching staff. Obviously, teams like the Cardinals (catcher: Yadier Molina) and Rays (Dioner Navarro) rate as tough teams to run on, while teams like the Braves (Brian McCann) and White Sox (A.J. Pierzynski) rate as easy teams to run on.
| Good for stolen bases | Top speedsters | |
| Cubs (CIN-3, WAS-3) | Alfonso Soriano (4 SBs since All-Star break), three others tied with 3 | |
| Giants (@ATL-1, FLA-3, SD-3) | Randy Winn (4), Fred Lewis (3), Dave Roberts (2) | |
| Orioles (BOS-3, NYY-3) | Brian Roberts (3), Nick Markakis (1) | |
| Rays (LAA-3, @CHW-3) | B.J. Upton (9), Ben Zobrist (2), four others tied with 1 | |
| Poor for stolen bases | Top speedsters | |
| Angels (@TB-3, MIN-4) | Chone Figgins (8), Howie Kendrick (6), five others tied with 1 | |
| Astros (@MIL-3, @NYM-3) | Kazuo Matsui (4), Hunter Pence (2), Michael Bourn (1) | |
| Braves (SF-1, @NYM-3, @STL-3) | Kelly Johnson (3), Brian McCann (3), Gregor Blanco (1) | |
| White Sox (SEA-3, TB-3) | Orlando Cabrera (3), Alexei Ramirez (2), five others tied with 1 | |
| All base stealers statistics are through Thursday. | ||
Note: As with the hitter-friendly ballparks, pitcher-friendly ballparks are based mostly on 2005-08 data, with some personal opinion involved.
| Good for pitchers | Poor for pitchers |
| Games at pitcher-friendly ballparks | |
| Dodger Stadium (LAD): Rockies, Aug. 19-21 | |
| Dolphin Stadium (FLA): No games | |
| McAfee Coliseum (OAK): No games | |
| Progressive Field (CLE): Royals, Aug. 19-21 | |
| Petco Park (SD): No games | |
| Safeco Field (SEA): Athletics, Aug. 21-24 | |
| Shea Stadium (NYM): Braves, Aug. 19-21; Astros, Aug. 22-24 | |
Two-start notes: I'll put this week's mixed-league cutoff point right around No. 17, Andy Sonnanstine, if only because that's where the matchups begin to get much tougher. A case can be made, though, for anyone through No. 22, Randy Wolf, in deep-mixed formats. The Dodgers need a fifth starter with Brad Penny now back on the DL, but they'll probably push that rotation spot back to Saturday and shift everyone else up by a day. Hiroki Kuroda benefits with a two-start week. Though the Padres could use Jake Peavy on four days' rest Tuesday, they were conservative with him this past week. Thus, count on Josh Banks being their two-start pitcher for Week 21. Not only do the Yankees need to find a fourth starter for Tuesday, they'll presumably need a fifth starter on Saturday, too. With Dan Giese on the DL, Darrell Rasner is the favorite to pitch Tuesday and be the team's two-start pitcher. Perhaps Phil Hughes will get the call Saturday.
| Two-start pitchers -- Tristan's rankings | ||
| Pitcher (Team) | First start (Opponent) | Second start (Opponent) |
| 1. CC Sabathia (MIL) | Aug. 18, HOU (Wolf) | Aug. 24, PIT (Maholm) |
| Past 5 GS: 4-0, 1.35 ERA, 0.98 WHIP ... Career at Miller Park: 6 GS, 4-1, 2.68 ERA, 1.31 WHIP | ||
| 2. Rich Harden (CHC) | Aug. 19, CIN (Fogg) | Aug. 24, WAS (Bergmann) |
| Past 5 GS: 2-1, 2.12 ERA, 1.01 WHIP ... Career at Wrigley Field: 3 GS, 2.81 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 16 IP, 28 K's | ||
| 3. Felix Hernandez (SEA) | Aug. 19, @CHW (Broadway) | Aug. 24, OAK (Gallagher) |
| Past 5 GS: 0-1, 3.38 ERA, 1.53 WHIP ... Career versus OAK: 10 GS, 6-3, 2.42 ERA, 1.19 WHIP | ||
| 4. Ervin Santana (LAA) | Aug. 19, @TB (J. Shields) | Aug. 24, MIN (Slowey) |
| Past 5 GS: 2-2, 4.05 ERA, 1.20 WHIP ... Career versus MIN: 4 GS, 2-1, 3.42 ERA, 1.35 WHIP | ||
| 5. Jon Lester (BOS) | Aug. 18, @BAL (Guthrie) | Aug. 24, @TOR (A. Burnett) |
| Past 5 GS: 4-1, 2.78 ERA, 1.21 WHIP ... Career at Camden Yards: 3 GS, 1-0, 2.50 ERA, 1.28 WHIP | ||
| 6. Oliver Perez (NYM) | Aug. 19, ATL (Campillo) | Aug. 24, HOU (Wolf) |
| Past 5 GS: 3-1, 2.43 ERA, 1.11 WHIP ... 2008 home: 11 GS, 4-2, 3.55 ERA, 1.20 WHIP | ||
| 7. A.J. Burnett (TOR) | Aug. 19, NYY (Rasner) | Aug. 24, BOS (Lester) |
| Past 5 GS: 5-0, 3.94 ERA, 1.42 WHIP ... Career versus BOS: 5 GS, 4-0, 1.98 ERA, 1.07 WHIP | ||
| 8. John Maine (NYM) | Aug. 18, @PIT (Maholm) | Aug. 23, HOU (Oswalt) |
| Past 5 GS: 2-1, 4.21 ERA, 1.36 WHIP ... Career versus HOU: 3 GS, 3-0, 1.57 ERA, 0.70 WHIP | ||
| 9. Justin Duchscherer (OAK) | Aug. 18, @MIN (Blackburn) | Aug. 23, @SEA (Washburn) |
| Past 5 GS: 0-3, 5.34 ERA, 1.45 WHIP ... 2008 road: 10 GS, 3-5, 2.82 ERA, 1.17 WHIP | ||
| 10. Kevin Slowey (MIN) | Aug. 19, OAK (Gallagher) | Aug. 24, @LAA (E. Santana) |
| Past 5 GS: 3-2, 3.09 ERA, 0.97 WHIP ... June 1, 2007 versus OAK: 6 IP, 5 H's, 1 ER, 3 K's | ||
| 11. Mark Buehrle (CHW) | Aug. 18, SEA (Washburn) | Aug. 24, TB (Sonnanstine) |
| Past 5 GS: 3-2, 4.11 ERA, 1.30 WHIP ... 2008 home: 12 GS, 7-3, 2.72 ERA, 1.10 WHIP | ||
| 12. Jon Garland (LAA) | Aug. 18, @TB (Sonnanstine) | Aug. 23, MIN (Blackburn) |
| Past 5 GS: 3-1, 4.50 ERA, 1.41 WHIP ... Career at Tropicana Field: 6 GS, 3-0, 2.13 ERA, 0.99 WHIP | ||
| 13. Jeremy Guthrie (BAL) | Aug. 18, BOS (Lester) | Aug. 24, NYY (Rasner) |
| Past 5 GS: 4-1, 1.54 ERA, 0.80 WHIP ... 2008 home: 12 GS, 4-4, 3.48 ERA, 1.26 WHIP | ||
| 14. Ricky Nolasco (FLA) | Aug. 19, @SF (Correia) | Aug. 24, @ARI (D. Davis) |
| Past 5 GS: 1-2, 4.26 ERA, 1.26 WHIP ... 2008 road: 13 GS, 6-3, 3.92 ERA, 1.27 WHIP | ||
| 15. Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) | Aug. 19, @LAD (Kuroda) | Aug. 24, CIN (Fogg) |
| Past 5 GS: 3-2, 3.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP ... July 27, 2008 versus CIN: Win, 6 IP, 5 H's, 0 ERs, 2 K's | ||
| 16. Hiroki Kuroda (LAD) | Aug. 19, COL (U. Jimenez) | Aug. 24, @PHI (Blanton) |
| Past 5 GS: 2-2, 4.22 ERA, 1.09 WHIP ... Career versus COL: 2 GS, 0-1, 7.50 ERA, 1.75 WHIP | ||
| 17. Andy Sonnanstine (TB) | Aug. 18, LAA (Garland) | Aug. 24, @CHW (Buehrle) |
| Past 5 GS: 2-2, 3.55 ERA, 1.09 WHIP ... Career versus LAA: 2 GS, 0-1, 6.00 ERA, 1.50 WHIP | ||
| 18. Joe Blanton (PHI) | Aug. 19, WAS (Bergmann) | Aug. 24, LAD (Kuroda) |
| Past 5 GS: 1-0, 4.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP ... Career at Citizens Bank Park: 2 GS, 0-0, 2.00 ERA, 0.78 WHIP | ||
| 19. Paul Maholm (PIT) | Aug. 18, NYM (Maine) | Aug. 24, @MIL (Sabathia) |
| Past 5 GS: 2-1, 2.25 ERA, 1.06 WHIP ... Career versus NYM: 4 GS, 3-1, 2.16 ERA, 1.28 WHIP | ||
| 20. Jarrod Washburn (SEA) | Aug. 18, @CHW (Buehrle) | Aug. 23, OAK (Duchscherer) |
| Past 5 GS: 1-4, 3.73 ERA, 1.37 WHIP ... Career at U.S. Cellular Field: 9 GS, 3-4, 3.92 ERA, 1.11 WHIP | ||
| 21. Braden Looper (STL) | Aug. 19, PIT (Snell) | Aug. 24, ATL (Campillo) |
| Past 5 GS: 2-2, 2.18 ERA, 1.03 WHIP ... 2008 home: 13 GS, 4-6, 4.50 ERA, 1.47 WHIP | ||
| 22. Randy Wolf (HOU) | Aug. 18, @MIL (Sabathia) | Aug. 24, @NYM (Ol. Perez) |
| Past 5 GS: 2-1, 4.18 ERA, 1.64 WHIP ... Career at Shea Stadium: 13 GS, 6-1, 2.61 ERA, 1.17 WHIP | ||
| 23. Barry Zito (SF) | Aug. 18, @ATL (Morton) | Aug. 23, SD (Baek) |
| Past 5 GS: 2-3, 6.07 ERA, 1.55 WHIP ... 2007-08 versus SD: 6 G's, 5 GS, 2-1, 2.73 ERA, 1.15 WHIP | ||
| 24. Nick Blackburn (MIN) | Aug. 18, OAK (Duchscherer) | Aug. 23, @LAA (Garland) |
| Past 5 GS: 2-1, 4.10 ERA, 1.44 WHIP ... Since June 1: 13 GS, 5-3, 4.07 ERA, 1.25 WHIP | ||
| 25. Doug Davis (ARI) | Aug. 19, SD (Banks) | Aug. 24, FLA (Nolasco) |
| Past 5 GS: 1-3, 6.66 ERA, 1.56 WHIP ... Career versus SD: 13 G's, 12 GS, 7-3, 3.05 ERA, 1.20 WHIP | ||
| 26. Anthony Reyes (CLE) | Aug. 19, KC (Hochevar) | Aug. 24, @TEX (Feldman) |
| Past 2 GS: 1-1, 2.19 ERA, 1.30 WHIP ... May 20, 2006 versus KC: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 4 H's, 0 ERs, 1 K | ||
| 27. Jorge Campillo (ATL) | Aug. 19, @NYM (Ol. Perez) | Aug. 24, @STL (Looper) |
| Past 5 GS: 2-1, 4.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP ... 2008 road: 15 G's, 7 GS, 4-2, 2.13 ERA, 0.87 WHIP | ||
| 28. Kevin Correia (SF) | Aug. 19, FLA (Nolasco) | Aug. 24, SD (Banks) |
| Past 5 GS: 1-1, 3.90 ERA, 1.43 WHIP ... 2008 home: 7 GS, 1-2, 4.58 ERA, 1.50 WHIP | ||
| 29. Josh Banks (SD) | Aug. 19, @ARI (D. Davis) | Aug. 24, @SF (Correia) |
| Past 5 GS: 1-1, 6.51 ERA, 1.70 WHIP ... May 31, 2008 at AT&T Park: Win, 9 IP, 6 H's, 0 ERs, 5 K's | ||
| 30. Sean Gallagher (OAK) | Aug. 19, @MIN (Slowey) | Aug. 24, @SEA (F. Hernandez) |
| Past 5 GS: 0-1, 5.24 ERA, 2.19 WHIP ... 2008 road: 10 G's, 8 GS, 0-5, 5.36 ERA, 1.65 WHIP | ||
| No thank you (in alphabetical order): Jason Bergmann (WAS), Aug. 19, @PHI (Blanton), Aug. 24, @CHC (Harden); Scott Feldman (TEX), Aug. 18, DET (Rogers), Aug. 24, CLE (An. Reyes); Josh Fogg (CIN), Aug. 19, @CHC (Harden), Aug. 24, @COL (U. Jimenez); Luke Hochevar (KC), Aug. 19, @CLE (An. Reyes), Aug. 24, DET (Rogers); Charlie Morton (ATL), Aug. 18, SF (Zito), Aug. 23, @STL (Lohse); Darrell Rasner (NYY), Aug. 19, @TOR (A. Burnett), Aug. 24, @BAL (Guthrie); Kenny Rogers (DET), Aug. 18, @TEX (Feldman), Aug. 24, @KC (Hochevar). | ||
| One-start pitchers -- value plays (owned in under 50 percent of ESPN.com leagues) | ||
| Pitcher (Team) | Start (Opponent) | |
| Dave Bush (MIL) | Aug. 22, PIT (Duke) | |
| Past 5 GS: 3-1, 3.21 ERA, 0.89 WHIP ... 2008 home: 12 GS, 5-3, 3.15 ERA, 0.99 WHIP | ||
| Josh Johnson (FLA) | Aug. 21, @SF (J. Sanchez) | |
| Past 5 GS: 3-0, 3.19 ERA, 1.42 WHIP ... 2008 road: 4 GS, 2-0, 2.70 ERA, 1.37 WHIP | ||
| Gil Meche (KC) | Aug. 20, @CLE (Z. Jackson) | |
| Past 5 GS: 3-0, 2.51 ERA, 1.30 WHIP ... 2007-08 at Jacobs Field: 2 GS, 2-0, 3.00 ERA, 1.08 WHIP | ||
| Jamie Moyer (PHI) | Aug. 21, WAS (Redding) | |
| Past 5 GS: 2-1, 2.61 ERA, 1.19 WHIP ... 2007-08 home: 6 GS, 4-0, 2.83 ERA, 1.40 WHIP | ||
| Manny Parra (MIL) | Aug. 20, HOU (W. Rodriguez) | |
| Past 5 GS: 0-4, 5.70 ERA, 1.57 WHIP ... 2008 home: 14 G's, 13 GS, 5-2, 3.35 ERA, 1.40 WHIP | ||
| Mike Pelfrey (NYM) | Aug. 20, ATL (Jurrjens) | |
| Past 5 GS: 3-2, 4.30 ERA, 1.43 WHIP ... 2008 home: 13 GS, 6-5, 2.81 ERA, 1.22 WHIP | ||
| Yusmeiro Petit (ARI) | Aug. 23, FLA (Volstad) | |
| Past 4 GS: 1-2, 3.00 ERA, 0.90 WHIP ... 2008 home: 7 G's, 3 GS, 1-1, 3.27 ERA, 0.86 WHIP | ||
| Sidney Ponson (NYY) | Aug. 21, @TOR (Litsch) | |
| Past 5 GS: 2-2, 4.99 ERA, 1.43 WHIP ... Career at Rogers Centre: 8 GS, 4-3, 3.19 ERA, 1.17 WHIP | ||
| Jeff Suppan (MIL) | Aug. 23, PIT (Karstens) | |
| Past 5 GS: 3-1, 4.11 ERA, 1.23 WHIP ... Career versus PIT: 19 GS, 10-3, 4.32 ERA, 1.19 WHIP | ||
| Todd Wellemeyer (STL) | Aug. 20, PIT (J. Davis) | |
| Past 5 GS: 2-0, 2.30 ERA, 1.21 WHIP ... 2008 versus PIT: 4 GS, 2-0, 3.42 ERA, 0.99 WHIP | ||
Tristan H. Cockcroft covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.
