August 16, 2008, 11:19 PM

Fantasy Forecaster: Previewing Week 21

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Cockcroft By Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN.com
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On tap: In a bit of a scheduling anomaly, we see the first of back-to-back five-game weeks. Last week the Angels and Mariners had just five games during the fantasy week (Monday through Sunday); this week it's the St. Louis Cardinals who have the unfortunate circumstance (for us, anyway) of having a short Week 21. It's the only team to play that few; by comparison, seven teams have seven games apiece.

There isn't a lot of playoff-related intrigue to Week 21, although the Rays and Angels square off for three at Tampa Bay to begin the week. Keep in mind the Rays swept the Angels in a three-game series at home May 10-12, totaling 12 runs to the Angels' five. Tampa Bay also boasts an impressive 45-17 home record.

Among healing players we can expect back: The Yankees' Phil Hughes (candidate to start Tuesday or Saturday), the Mets' Billy Wagner (likely on Monday) and the Cardinals' Adam Wainwright (return date depends on whether he's a starter or reliever).

Quick click by section:

Game breakdowns | Hitters' matchups | Comfort zone: Hitter value plays

Base stealers' matchups | Pitchers' matchups | Two-start pitchers

Note: Weather reports are based on upcoming weather forecasts (through Friday), as well as historical trends in those cities. "Poor weather" doesn't guarantee rainouts; those are merely the teams with the highest probability of one or more.

Seven games
Angels (@TB-3, MIN-4)Giants (@ATL-1, FLA-3, SD-3)
Athletics (@MIN-3, @SEA-4)Mariners (@CHW-3, OAK-4)
Braves (SF-1, @NYM-3, @STL-3)Mets (@PIT-1, ATL-3, HOU-3)
Twins (OAK-3, @LAA-4)
Six games, all homeSix games, all road
Blue Jays (NYY-3, BOS-3)Astros (@MIL-3, @NYM-3)
Brewers (HOU-3, PIT-3)Marlins (@SF-3, @ARI-3)
Cubs (CIN-3, WAS-3)Nationals (@PHI-3, @CHC-3)
Diamondbacks (SD-3, FLA-3)Padres (@ARI-3, @SF-3)
Orioles (BOS-3, NYY-3)Red Sox (@BAL-3, @TOR-3)
Phillies (WAS-3, LAD-3)Reds (@CHC-3, @COL-3)
Rangers (DET-3, CLE-3)Tigers (@TEX-3, @KC-3)
White Sox (SEA-3, TB-3)Yankees (@TOR-3, @BAL-3)
Five games
Cardinals (PIT-2, ATL-3)
Good weather (* -- weatherproof)Riskier weather
Angels (@TB-3, MIN-4)Braves (SF-1, @NYM-3, @STL-3)
Athletics * (@MIN-3, @SEA-4)Cardinals (PIT-2, ATL-3)
Blue Jays * (NYY-3, BOS-3)Cubs (CIN-3, WAS-3)
Brewers * (HOU-3, PIT-3)Mets (@PIT-1, ATL-3, HOU-3)
Diamondbacks * (SD-3, FLA-3)Nationals (@PHI-3, @CHC-3)
Giants (@ATL-1, FLA-3, SD-3)Rangers (DET-3, CLE-3)
Marlins (@SF-3, @ARI-3)Tigers (@TEX-3, @KC-3)
Padres (@ARI-3, @SF-3)White Sox (SEA-3, TB-3)
Twins (OAK-3, @LAA-4)

Note: Hitter-friendly ballparks are based primarily on recent statistical data (2005 to 2008) comparing home/road performance, much the same method as our Park Factor page. Some personal opinion does go into making ballpark selections.

Good for hitters Poor for hitters
Cubs (CIN-3, WAS-3) Angels (@TB-3, MIN-4)
Dodgers (COL-3, @PHI-3) Astros (@MIL-3, @NYM-3)
Rangers (DET-3, CLE-3) Padres (@ARI-3, @SF-3)
Tigers (@TEX-3, @KC-3) Rays (LAA-3, @CHW-3)
Games at hitter-friendly ballparks
Chase Field (ARI): Padres, Aug. 19-21; Marlins, Aug. 22-24
Citizens Bank Park (PHI): Nationals, Aug. 19-21; Dodgers, Aug. 22-24
Coors Field (COL): Reds, Aug. 22-24
Great American Ball Park (CIN): No games
Rangers Ballpark (TEX): Tigers, Aug. 18-20; Indians, Aug. 22-24
U.S. Cellular Field (CHW): Mariners, Aug. 18-20; Rays, Aug. 22-24
Wrigley Field (CHC): Reds, Aug. 19-21; Nationals, Aug. 22-24
Lefty-heavy Righty-heavy
Astros (4 LHP, 2 RHP) Angels (6 RHP, 1 LHP)
Athletics (4 LHP, 3 RHP) Cardinals (4 RHP, 0 LHP, 1 TBD)
Brewers (4 LHP, 2 RHP) Diamondbacks (6 RHP, 0 LHP)
Dodgers (3 LHP, 3 RHP) Giants (6 RHP, 1 LHP)
Mariners (3 LHP, 4 RHP) Rockies (6 RHP, 0 LHP)
Mets (3 LHP, 4 RHP) Tigers (5 RHP, 0 LHP, 1 TBD)
Rangers (3 LHP, 3 RHP)
Royals (3 LHP, 3 RHP)

Looking for a decent hitter value pick for this week? Here are 10 strong matchup choices, among the beneath-the-elite crop:

Hitter (Team)ScheduleRecent stats (since?)
Marlon Byrd (TEX)DET-3, CLE-3(Aug. 3) 11 G's, .500 BA, 1.323 OPS
2008 home: 41 G's, .328 BA, 6 HRs, 1.009 OPS ... 2008 versus LHP: 110 PAs, .281 BA, 5 HRs, .884 OPS
David Dellucci (CLE)KC-3, @TEX-3(Aug. 2) 8 G's, .464 BA, 1.321 OPS
June 2-5, 2008 at Rangers Ballpark: 4 G's, 6-for-14 (.429 BA), 2 HRs ... 2008 versus RHP: .263 BA, .773 OPS
Mike Jacobs (FLA)@SF-3, @ARI-3(July 27) 16 G's, .308 BA, 1.112 OPS
Career at Chase Field: 11 G's, .326 BA, 4 HRs, 1.062 OPS ... 2008 road: 49 G's, .266 BA, 13 HRs, .885 OPS
Matt Joyce (DET)@TEX-3, @KC-3(July 9) 30 G's, .310 BA, .966 OPS
2008 at Kauffman Stadium: 6 G's, 8-for-22 (.364 BA), 3 HRs ... 2008 versus RHP: .265 BA, .881 OPS
Jeff Kent (LAD)COL-3, @PHI-3(July 29) 15 G's, .411 BA, 1.004 OPS
Career at Citizens Bank Park: 11 G's, .326 BA, 12 RBIs, .933 OPS ... 2008 versus LHP: .291 BA, .805 OPS
Kevin Kouzmanoff (SD)@ARI-3, @SF-3(July 17) 26 Gs, .299 BA, 6 HRs
Career at Chase Field: 14 G's, .296 BA, .974 OPS ... 2008 road: 55 G's, .317 BA, 8 HRs, 33 RBIs, .846 OPS
Lastings Milledge (WAS)@PHI-3, @CHC-3(Aug. 1) 14 G's, .370 BA, 5 HRs
Career at Citizens Bank Park: 11 G's, .294 BA, .796 OPS ... 2008 road: 48 G's, .265 BA, 6 HRs, .715 OPS
Corey Patterson (CIN)@CHC-3, @COL-3(Aug. 2) 12 G's, .268 BA, 2 HRs
Career at Coors Field: 12 G's, .333 BA, 5 HRs, 1.076 OPS ... Career at Wrigley: 299 G's, .254 BA, 39 HRs
Ryan Theriot (CHC)CIN-3, WAS-3(July 18) 25 G's, .319 BA, .817 OPS
2008 home: 57 G's, .336 BA, 39 R's, .799 OPS ... Career versus CIN: 34 G's, .364 BA, 3 HRs, .915 OPS
Chad Tracy (ARI)SD-3, FLA-3(July 1) 34 G's, .313 BA, .847 OPS
Career home: 283 G's, .307 BA, .869 OPS ... Career versus RHP: .306 BA, .866 OPS, 58 of 70 HRs
All hitters statistics are through Thursday.

Note: Matchups are determined by examining both an opponent's catcher and pitching staff. Obviously, teams like the Cardinals (catcher: Yadier Molina) and Rays (Dioner Navarro) rate as tough teams to run on, while teams like the Braves (Brian McCann) and White Sox (A.J. Pierzynski) rate as easy teams to run on.

Good for stolen basesTop speedsters
Cubs (CIN-3, WAS-3)Alfonso Soriano (4 SBs since All-Star break), three others tied with 3
Giants (@ATL-1, FLA-3, SD-3)Randy Winn (4), Fred Lewis (3), Dave Roberts (2)
Orioles (BOS-3, NYY-3)Brian Roberts (3), Nick Markakis (1)
Rays (LAA-3, @CHW-3)B.J. Upton (9), Ben Zobrist (2), four others tied with 1
Poor for stolen basesTop speedsters
Angels (@TB-3, MIN-4)Chone Figgins (8), Howie Kendrick (6), five others tied with 1
Astros (@MIL-3, @NYM-3)Kazuo Matsui (4), Hunter Pence (2), Michael Bourn (1)
Braves (SF-1, @NYM-3, @STL-3)Kelly Johnson (3), Brian McCann (3), Gregor Blanco (1)
White Sox (SEA-3, TB-3)Orlando Cabrera (3), Alexei Ramirez (2), five others tied with 1
All base stealers statistics are through Thursday.

Note: As with the hitter-friendly ballparks, pitcher-friendly ballparks are based mostly on 2005-08 data, with some personal opinion involved.

Good for pitchersPoor for pitchers
Athletics (@MIN-3, @SEA-4) Blue Jays (NYY-3, BOS-3)
Brewers (HOU-3, PIT-3) Nationals (@PHI-3, @CHC-3)
Cubs (CIN-3, WAS-3) Orioles (BOS-3, NYY-3)
White Sox (SEA-3, TB-3) Reds (@CHC-3, @COL-3)
Games at pitcher-friendly ballparks
Dodger Stadium (LAD): Rockies, Aug. 19-21
Dolphin Stadium (FLA): No games
McAfee Coliseum (OAK): No games
Progressive Field (CLE): Royals, Aug. 19-21
Petco Park (SD): No games
Safeco Field (SEA): Athletics, Aug. 21-24
Shea Stadium (NYM): Braves, Aug. 19-21; Astros, Aug. 22-24

Two-start notes: I'll put this week's mixed-league cutoff point right around No. 17, Andy Sonnanstine, if only because that's where the matchups begin to get much tougher. A case can be made, though, for anyone through No. 22, Randy Wolf, in deep-mixed formats. … The Dodgers need a fifth starter with Brad Penny now back on the DL, but they'll probably push that rotation spot back to Saturday and shift everyone else up by a day. Hiroki Kuroda benefits with a two-start week. … Though the Padres could use Jake Peavy on four days' rest Tuesday, they were conservative with him this past week. Thus, count on Josh Banks being their two-start pitcher for Week 21. … Not only do the Yankees need to find a fourth starter for Tuesday, they'll presumably need a fifth starter on Saturday, too. With Dan Giese on the DL, Darrell Rasner is the favorite to pitch Tuesday and be the team's two-start pitcher. Perhaps Phil Hughes will get the call Saturday.

Two-start pitchers -- Tristan's rankings
Pitcher (Team)First start (Opponent)Second start (Opponent)
1. CC Sabathia (MIL)Aug. 18, HOU (Wolf)Aug. 24, PIT (Maholm)
Past 5 GS: 4-0, 1.35 ERA, 0.98 WHIP ... Career at Miller Park: 6 GS, 4-1, 2.68 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
2. Rich Harden (CHC)Aug. 19, CIN (Fogg)Aug. 24, WAS (Bergmann)
Past 5 GS: 2-1, 2.12 ERA, 1.01 WHIP ... Career at Wrigley Field: 3 GS, 2.81 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 16 IP, 28 K's
3. Felix Hernandez (SEA)Aug. 19, @CHW (Broadway)Aug. 24, OAK (Gallagher)
Past 5 GS: 0-1, 3.38 ERA, 1.53 WHIP ... Career versus OAK: 10 GS, 6-3, 2.42 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
4. Ervin Santana (LAA)Aug. 19, @TB (J. Shields)Aug. 24, MIN (Slowey)
Past 5 GS: 2-2, 4.05 ERA, 1.20 WHIP ... Career versus MIN: 4 GS, 2-1, 3.42 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
5. Jon Lester (BOS)Aug. 18, @BAL (Guthrie)Aug. 24, @TOR (A. Burnett)
Past 5 GS: 4-1, 2.78 ERA, 1.21 WHIP ... Career at Camden Yards: 3 GS, 1-0, 2.50 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
6. Oliver Perez (NYM)Aug. 19, ATL (Campillo)Aug. 24, HOU (Wolf)
Past 5 GS: 3-1, 2.43 ERA, 1.11 WHIP ... 2008 home: 11 GS, 4-2, 3.55 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
7. A.J. Burnett (TOR)Aug. 19, NYY (Rasner)Aug. 24, BOS (Lester)
Past 5 GS: 5-0, 3.94 ERA, 1.42 WHIP ... Career versus BOS: 5 GS, 4-0, 1.98 ERA, 1.07 WHIP
8. John Maine (NYM)Aug. 18, @PIT (Maholm)Aug. 23, HOU (Oswalt)
Past 5 GS: 2-1, 4.21 ERA, 1.36 WHIP ... Career versus HOU: 3 GS, 3-0, 1.57 ERA, 0.70 WHIP
9. Justin Duchscherer (OAK)Aug. 18, @MIN (Blackburn)Aug. 23, @SEA (Washburn)
Past 5 GS: 0-3, 5.34 ERA, 1.45 WHIP ... 2008 road: 10 GS, 3-5, 2.82 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
10. Kevin Slowey (MIN)Aug. 19, OAK (Gallagher)Aug. 24, @LAA (E. Santana)
Past 5 GS: 3-2, 3.09 ERA, 0.97 WHIP ... June 1, 2007 versus OAK: 6 IP, 5 H's, 1 ER, 3 K's
11. Mark Buehrle (CHW)Aug. 18, SEA (Washburn)Aug. 24, TB (Sonnanstine)
Past 5 GS: 3-2, 4.11 ERA, 1.30 WHIP ... 2008 home: 12 GS, 7-3, 2.72 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
12. Jon Garland (LAA)Aug. 18, @TB (Sonnanstine)Aug. 23, MIN (Blackburn)
Past 5 GS: 3-1, 4.50 ERA, 1.41 WHIP ... Career at Tropicana Field: 6 GS, 3-0, 2.13 ERA, 0.99 WHIP
13. Jeremy Guthrie (BAL)Aug. 18, BOS (Lester)Aug. 24, NYY (Rasner)
Past 5 GS: 4-1, 1.54 ERA, 0.80 WHIP ... 2008 home: 12 GS, 4-4, 3.48 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
14. Ricky Nolasco (FLA)Aug. 19, @SF (Correia)Aug. 24, @ARI (D. Davis)
Past 5 GS: 1-2, 4.26 ERA, 1.26 WHIP ... 2008 road: 13 GS, 6-3, 3.92 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
15. Ubaldo Jimenez (COL)Aug. 19, @LAD (Kuroda)Aug. 24, CIN (Fogg)
Past 5 GS: 3-2, 3.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP ... July 27, 2008 versus CIN: Win, 6 IP, 5 H's, 0 ERs, 2 K's
16. Hiroki Kuroda (LAD)Aug. 19, COL (U. Jimenez)Aug. 24, @PHI (Blanton)
Past 5 GS: 2-2, 4.22 ERA, 1.09 WHIP ... Career versus COL: 2 GS, 0-1, 7.50 ERA, 1.75 WHIP
17. Andy Sonnanstine (TB)Aug. 18, LAA (Garland)Aug. 24, @CHW (Buehrle)
Past 5 GS: 2-2, 3.55 ERA, 1.09 WHIP ... Career versus LAA: 2 GS, 0-1, 6.00 ERA, 1.50 WHIP
18. Joe Blanton (PHI)Aug. 19, WAS (Bergmann)Aug. 24, LAD (Kuroda)
Past 5 GS: 1-0, 4.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP ... Career at Citizens Bank Park: 2 GS, 0-0, 2.00 ERA, 0.78 WHIP
19. Paul Maholm (PIT)Aug. 18, NYM (Maine)Aug. 24, @MIL (Sabathia)
Past 5 GS: 2-1, 2.25 ERA, 1.06 WHIP ... Career versus NYM: 4 GS, 3-1, 2.16 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
20. Jarrod Washburn (SEA)Aug. 18, @CHW (Buehrle)Aug. 23, OAK (Duchscherer)
Past 5 GS: 1-4, 3.73 ERA, 1.37 WHIP ... Career at U.S. Cellular Field: 9 GS, 3-4, 3.92 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
21. Braden Looper (STL)Aug. 19, PIT (Snell)Aug. 24, ATL (Campillo)
Past 5 GS: 2-2, 2.18 ERA, 1.03 WHIP ... 2008 home: 13 GS, 4-6, 4.50 ERA, 1.47 WHIP
22. Randy Wolf (HOU)Aug. 18, @MIL (Sabathia)Aug. 24, @NYM (Ol. Perez)
Past 5 GS: 2-1, 4.18 ERA, 1.64 WHIP ... Career at Shea Stadium: 13 GS, 6-1, 2.61 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
23. Barry Zito (SF)Aug. 18, @ATL (Morton)Aug. 23, SD (Baek)
Past 5 GS: 2-3, 6.07 ERA, 1.55 WHIP ... 2007-08 versus SD: 6 G's, 5 GS, 2-1, 2.73 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
24. Nick Blackburn (MIN)Aug. 18, OAK (Duchscherer)Aug. 23, @LAA (Garland)
Past 5 GS: 2-1, 4.10 ERA, 1.44 WHIP ... Since June 1: 13 GS, 5-3, 4.07 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
25. Doug Davis (ARI)Aug. 19, SD (Banks)Aug. 24, FLA (Nolasco)
Past 5 GS: 1-3, 6.66 ERA, 1.56 WHIP ... Career versus SD: 13 G's, 12 GS, 7-3, 3.05 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
26. Anthony Reyes (CLE)Aug. 19, KC (Hochevar)Aug. 24, @TEX (Feldman)
Past 2 GS: 1-1, 2.19 ERA, 1.30 WHIP ... May 20, 2006 versus KC: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 4 H's, 0 ERs, 1 K
27. Jorge Campillo (ATL)Aug. 19, @NYM (Ol. Perez)Aug. 24, @STL (Looper)
Past 5 GS: 2-1, 4.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP ... 2008 road: 15 G's, 7 GS, 4-2, 2.13 ERA, 0.87 WHIP
28. Kevin Correia (SF)Aug. 19, FLA (Nolasco)Aug. 24, SD (Banks)
Past 5 GS: 1-1, 3.90 ERA, 1.43 WHIP ... 2008 home: 7 GS, 1-2, 4.58 ERA, 1.50 WHIP
29. Josh Banks (SD)Aug. 19, @ARI (D. Davis)Aug. 24, @SF (Correia)
Past 5 GS: 1-1, 6.51 ERA, 1.70 WHIP ... May 31, 2008 at AT&T Park: Win, 9 IP, 6 H's, 0 ERs, 5 K's
30. Sean Gallagher (OAK)Aug. 19, @MIN (Slowey)Aug. 24, @SEA (F. Hernandez)
Past 5 GS: 0-1, 5.24 ERA, 2.19 WHIP ... 2008 road: 10 G's, 8 GS, 0-5, 5.36 ERA, 1.65 WHIP
No thank you (in alphabetical order): Jason Bergmann (WAS), Aug. 19, @PHI (Blanton), Aug. 24, @CHC (Harden); Scott Feldman (TEX), Aug. 18, DET (Rogers), Aug. 24, CLE (An. Reyes); Josh Fogg (CIN), Aug. 19, @CHC (Harden), Aug. 24, @COL (U. Jimenez); Luke Hochevar (KC), Aug. 19, @CLE (An. Reyes), Aug. 24, DET (Rogers); Charlie Morton (ATL), Aug. 18, SF (Zito), Aug. 23, @STL (Lohse); Darrell Rasner (NYY), Aug. 19, @TOR (A. Burnett), Aug. 24, @BAL (Guthrie); Kenny Rogers (DET), Aug. 18, @TEX (Feldman), Aug. 24, @KC (Hochevar).

One-start pitchers -- value plays (owned in under 50 percent of ESPN.com leagues)
Pitcher (Team)Start (Opponent)
Dave Bush (MIL)Aug. 22, PIT (Duke)
Past 5 GS: 3-1, 3.21 ERA, 0.89 WHIP ... 2008 home: 12 GS, 5-3, 3.15 ERA, 0.99 WHIP
Josh Johnson (FLA)Aug. 21, @SF (J. Sanchez)
Past 5 GS: 3-0, 3.19 ERA, 1.42 WHIP ... 2008 road: 4 GS, 2-0, 2.70 ERA, 1.37 WHIP
Gil Meche (KC)Aug. 20, @CLE (Z. Jackson)
Past 5 GS: 3-0, 2.51 ERA, 1.30 WHIP ... 2007-08 at Jacobs Field: 2 GS, 2-0, 3.00 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
Jamie Moyer (PHI)Aug. 21, WAS (Redding)
Past 5 GS: 2-1, 2.61 ERA, 1.19 WHIP ... 2007-08 home: 6 GS, 4-0, 2.83 ERA, 1.40 WHIP
Manny Parra (MIL)Aug. 20, HOU (W. Rodriguez)
Past 5 GS: 0-4, 5.70 ERA, 1.57 WHIP ... 2008 home: 14 G's, 13 GS, 5-2, 3.35 ERA, 1.40 WHIP
Mike Pelfrey (NYM)Aug. 20, ATL (Jurrjens)
Past 5 GS: 3-2, 4.30 ERA, 1.43 WHIP ... 2008 home: 13 GS, 6-5, 2.81 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
Yusmeiro Petit (ARI)Aug. 23, FLA (Volstad)
Past 4 GS: 1-2, 3.00 ERA, 0.90 WHIP ... 2008 home: 7 G's, 3 GS, 1-1, 3.27 ERA, 0.86 WHIP
Sidney Ponson (NYY)Aug. 21, @TOR (Litsch)
Past 5 GS: 2-2, 4.99 ERA, 1.43 WHIP ... Career at Rogers Centre: 8 GS, 4-3, 3.19 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
Jeff Suppan (MIL)Aug. 23, PIT (Karstens)
Past 5 GS: 3-1, 4.11 ERA, 1.23 WHIP ... Career versus PIT: 19 GS, 10-3, 4.32 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
Todd Wellemeyer (STL)Aug. 20, PIT (J. Davis)
Past 5 GS: 2-0, 2.30 ERA, 1.21 WHIP ... 2008 versus PIT: 4 GS, 2-0, 3.42 ERA, 0.99 WHIP

Tristan H. Cockcroft covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.