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September 14, 2008, 12:53 PM

Fantasy Forecaster: Previewing Week 25

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By Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN.com
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All statistics are through the games of Thursday, Sept. 11.

On tap: Yankee Stadium will officially close its doors -- yes, I'm declaring them out of the playoff race, not that it's any great leap -- on Sunday, with a game against the Orioles. Emotions will almost assuredly be running high all week at the Stadium, and interestingly, it'll be Andy Pettitte starting the ballpark's final contest.

The Red Sox and Rays will battle for American League East supremacy in Tampa Bay to begin the week, and the schedule gets no easier for the Rays from there; they host the wild-card contending Twins for four games to end Week 25. Meanwhile, the Twins' rivals, the White Sox, have to deal with four games at the aforementioned Yankee Stadium to open their week. In the National League, Brewers-Cubs in Chicago Tuesday through Thursday should be a series full of intrigue, but other than that there aren't a lot of head-to-head matchups of strong playoff bets in the NL in Week 25.

The relevance of those battles? This late in the season, out-of-the-race teams often audition prospects and reclamation prospects for 2009, while teams that have already clinched playoff spots -- like the Angels -- sometimes rest regulars and tinker with their rotations to set up for the Division Series. (Ervin Santana is scheduled to be skipped this week, for instance.) Look to the contenders for your safest plays.

Quick click by section:

Game breakdowns | Hitters' matchups | Comfort Zone: Hitter value plays

Base stealers' matchups | Pitchers' matchups | Two-start pitchers

Note: Weather reports are based on upcoming weather forecasts (through Friday), as well as historical trends in those cities. "Poor weather" doesn't guarantee rainouts; those are merely the teams with the highest probability of one or more.

Note: Hitter-friendly ballparks are based primarily on recent statistical data (2005-08) comparing home/road performance, much the same method as our Park Factor page. Some personal opinion does go into making ballpark selections.

Good for hitters	Poor for hitters
Angels (@OAK-3, @TEX-3)	Pirates (LAD-4, HOU-3)
Mets (@WAS-4, @ATL-3)	Rays (BOS-3, MIN-4)
Padres (@COL-3, @WAS-3)	Red Sox (@TB-3, @TOR-3)
Yankees (CHW-4, BAL-3)	Reds (STL-3, MIL-3)
Games at hitter-friendly ballparks
Chase Field (ARI): Giants, Sept. 15-18
Citizens Bank Park (PHI): No games
Coors Field (COL): Padres, Sept. 15-17; Diamondbacks, Sept. 19-21
Great American Ball Park (CIN): Cardinals, Sept. 16-18; Brewers, Sept. 19-21
Rangers Ballpark (TEX): Tigers, Sept. 15-17; Angels, Sept. 19-21
U.S. Cellular Field (CHW): No games
Wrigley Field (CHC): Brewers, Sept. 16-18; Cardinals, Sept. 19-21
Lefty-heavy	Righty-heavy
Angels (3 LHP, 3 RHP)	Astros (6 RHP, 1 LHP)
Braves (3 LHP, 3 RHP)	Athletics (5 RHP, 1 LHP)
Indians (3 LHP, 3 RHP)	Brewers (5 RHP, 1 LHP)
Padres (3 LHP, 3 RHP)	Cardinals (6 RHP, 0 LHP)
Royals (4 LHP, 3 RHP)	Mariners (5 RHP, 1 LHP, 1 TBD)
Twins (4 LHP, 3 RHP)	Marlins (5 RHP, 1 LHP)
	Nationals (6 RHP, 1 LHP)
	Phillies (5 RHP, 1 LHP)
	Rangers (5 RHP, 1 LHP)
	Red Sox (5 RHP, 1 LHP)
	Reds (5 RHP, 1 LHP)
	White Sox (6 RHP, 1 LHP)

Looking for a decent hitter value pick for this week? Here are 10 strong matchup choices, among the beneath-the-elite crop:

Note: Matchups are determined by examining both an opponent's catcher and pitching staff. Obviously, teams like the Astros (catcher: Brad Ausmus/Humberto Quintero) and Athletics (Kurt Suzuki/Rob Bowen) rate as tough teams to run on, while teams like the Padres (Nick Hundley/Josh Bard) and Orioles (Ramon Hernandez/Guillermo Quiroz) rate as easy teams to run on.

Note: As with the hitter-friendly ballparks, pitcher-friendly ballparks are based mostly on 2005-08 data, with some personal opinion involved.

Good for pitchers	Poor for pitchers
Astros (CHC-1, @FLA-3, @PIT-3)	Braves (PHI-3, NYM-3)
Dodgers (@PIT-4, SF-3)	Cardinals (@CIN-3, @CHC-3)
Mariners (@KC-4, @OAK-3)	Rangers (DET-3, LAA-3)
Red Sox (@TB-3, @TOR-3)	Tigers (@TEX-3, @CLE-3)
Games at pitcher-friendly ballparks
Dodger Stadium (LAD): Giants, Sept. 19-21
Dolphin Stadium (FLA): Astros, Sept. 16-18; Phillies, Sept. 19-21
McAfee Coliseum (OAK): Angels, Sept. 16-18; Mariners, Sept. 19-21
Progressive Field (CLE): Twins, Sept. 15-17; Tigers, Sept. 19-21
Petco Park (SD): No games
Safeco Field (SEA): No games
Shea Stadium (NYM): No games

Two-start notes: Rotations continue to be in flux with two weeks to go in the regular season, so just like last week, don't get too cozy. For mixed-league owners, I'd dig as deep as No. 21, Brandon Morrow, because as we know, these tough times often call for taking a few more chances at a championship. I could make a case for Nos. 22-26, too, for the record. … Hurricane Ike wreaked big-time havoc on the Astros' and Cubs' rotations, and it's possible they'll tinker what they've got again before Monday. The information I had was that Jason Marquis and Ryan Dempster would be the Cubs' two-start pitchers for Week 25, and Brian Moehler and Roy Oswalt would be for the Astros. … Charlie Morton has been shut down for the season, which thrusts James Parr into a regular rotation role for the Braves in the final two weeks. He's on schedule to be their two-start pitcher in Week 25, but could be bumped back due to Monday's off day, making Jair Jurrjens the man. … Anthony Reyes will be skipped on Monday, but he's tentatively scheduled to pitch on Sept. 20. If that happens no Indian seems likely to make two starts; if it doesn't, Scott Lewis should go twice. … Jeremy Guthrie's uncertain status makes the Orioles' rotation uncertain. I'm expecting him to be shut down for the year, and you don't want any of their other options anyway. … The Rays might need a spot starter for Wednesday's game due to the Sept. 13 doubleheader, in which case Andy Sonnanstine would lose his second start on Sunday. They really wanted Matt Garza available to face the Red Sox on Wednesday, though, so I could see him working on three days' rest. … It's probably safe to assume the Rockies will use Thursday's off day to push Greg Reynolds back in the rotation, allowing Tuesday starter Ubaldo Jimenez to pitch twice this week. Reynolds' Monday performance might ultimately decide that, though. … The Tigers have made no rotation commitments beyond Wednesday, but it doesn't appear they'll use anyone twice this week. … The Yankees will give Alfredo Aceves another start on Monday, but he might miss his second turn if the team needs an extra starter for Wednesday due to the Sept. 13 doubleheader. Andy Pettitte is assured of pitching the Sunday finale at Yankee Stadium.

Tristan H. Cockcroft covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.