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April 19, 2008, 2:52 PM

Forecaster: Lineups, matchups, two-start pitchers

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By Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN.com
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On tap: The leagues flip-flop bulky schedules in Week 4. Unlike in Week 3 when all 14 American League teams played seven games apiece, this week the National League teams play seven games. But it's a fairly busy week in the AL too, as four teams play seven, while the other 10 play six. ... Another "reversal of fortune" from Week 3: It's actually an exceptional Week 4 from a two-start perspective.

Quick click by section: Game breakdowns | Hitters' matchups | Basestealers' matchups | Pitchers' matchups | Two-start pitchers

Note: Weather reports are based on upcoming weather forecasts (through Friday), as well as historical trends in those cities. "Poor weather" doesn't guarantee rainouts; those are merely the teams with the highest probability of one or more.

Note: Hitter-friendly ballparks are based primarily on three-year statistical data (2005-07) comparing home/road performance, much the same method as our Park Factor page. Some personal opinion does go into making ballpark selections.

Player tips: Pat Burrell (PHI) is a .353 hitter with seven home runs, 24 RBIs and a 1.107 OPS in 23 career games at Colorado's Coors Field, where he'll play April 21-22, and a .281 hitter with five homers, 12 RBIs and a 1.002 OPS in 16 career games at Milwaukee's Miller Park, where he'll play April 23-24. ... It might only help you from a two-day, spot-start perspective, but Randy Winn (SF) is a .405 hitter with six homers and a 1.154 OPS in 22 career games at Arizona's Chase Field, where he'll play April 21-22. ... Perhaps a two-day stop at Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park, on April 21-22, will help kick-start Andruw Jones' (LAD) season. He's a .342 hitter with nine homers, 17 RBIs and a 1.214 OPS in 20 career games there. ... Bobby Abreu (NYY) is a .417 hitter with five homers, 15 RBIs and a 1.353 OPS in 13 career games at Chicago's U.S. Cellular Field, where he'll play April 22-24. ... Kenji Johjima (SEA) is already 9-for-22 (.409 AVG) with four RBIs in seven home games this season, and the Mariners get six at Safeco Field in Week 4. He's also a .327 hitter with an .883 OPS against left-handers since the start of last season. ... Gabe Kapler (MIL) is 8-for-20 with four homers against southpaws this year, and has .291/.825 career rates against them. Also, keep in mind Mike Cameron won't be eligible to play before fantasy Week 5. ... Josh Hamilton (TEX) is a .294/.981 hitter against right-handers in 2008, and has .310/1.019 rates against them for his career. ... Eric Hinske (TB) has started 10 of the Rays' 11 games against a right-hander thus far, and is a .361/1.258 hitter against them this season. Expect him to play a fair share in Week 4.

Note: Matchups are determined by examining both an opponent's catcher and pitching staff. Obviously, teams like the Tigers (catcher: Ivan Rodriguez) and Mets (Brian Schneider) rate as tough teams to run on, while teams like the Padres (Josh Bard/Michael Barrett) and Indians (Victor Martinez) rate as easy teams to run on.

Player tips: Like everyone else, the Diamondbacks ran wild against the Padres in 2007, stealing 19 bases in 21 attempts in 18 meetings. Eric Byrnes and Chris Young had six steals apiece, but you'd start them regardless. Stephen Drew's four and Orlando Hudson's three in those contests, though, should draw your attention. ... A healthy David DeJesus has relegated Joey Gathright (KC) to his traditional reserve role, but the latter is still quick enough to exploit this favorable schedule. AL-only owners should keep Gathright active facing such poor batteries as these. ... Carl Crawford (TB) ran wild against the Blue Jays in 2007, going 10-for-10 in steal chances in 15 games, while Jonny Gomes qualifies as the Week 4 sleeper. He stole four of his 12 bases in 2007 against the Red Sox, and has shown he's not afraid to run this year, either, with two steal attempts in his first 12 contests. ... Speed is one of the Padres' weaknesses, and the schedule says don't count on many steals from them in Week 4. Brian Giles is the only current Padre who stole more than a base against the Diamondbacks in 2007 (he swiped two), but his surgically reconstructed knee makes it unlikely that'll happen this season. ... Nate McLouth (PIT) has yet to steal a base in a home game this season and the schedule says you want him more for his bat than for his legs in Week 4. ... Carlos Gomez (MIN) has a dreadful .237 on-base percentage on the road for his career, so don't get too caught up in gambling on his steals, because the matchups are bad and he might devastate you in the other Rotisserie categories.

Note: As with the hitter-friendly ballparks, pitcher-friendly ballparks are based mostly on 2005-07 data, with some personal opinion involved.

Player tips: How strong a week is it for two-start pitchers? Each of the top 20 on this week's list would have been a certain top-10 option for Week 3, and most would have been top-five picks. ... Randy Johnson (ARI) is 1-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.69 WHIP in two career starts at San Diego's Petco Park, where he's scheduled to start on April 25. ... Matt Cain (SF) has been even better than that at Petco; he has a 1.71 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and .108 BAA in five career starts there. He'll start at San Diego on April 23. ... Seattle's Safeco Field is one of the few places where Daniel Cabrera (BAL) dominates; he's 3-0 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in four career starts there. He'll pitch at Seattle on April 24, possibly against Seattle's Erik Bedard. ... There's something about Tampa Bay's Tropicana Field that appeals to Tim Wakefield (BOS), as the knuckleballer is 9-1 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 20 career games (14 starts) there. He'll battle the Rays in Tampa Bay on April 25. ... Jarrod Washburn (SEA) had a 3.86 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in four starts against the Athletics in 2007, and remember, they boasted a better offense last year than this, especially against left-handers. Washburn battles the Athletics at home on April 25. ... Sticking with that point about the Athletics' struggles against lefties, don't be surprised if Francisco Liriano (MIN) has his first solid outing since his recovery from Tommy John surgery when he pitches at Oakland on April 24. ... Ryan Dempster (CHC) is 6-0 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 18 career games (10 starts) against the Nationals, whom he'll face in Washington on April 25.

Two-start notes: With Yovani Gallardo on his way back, the Brewers have yet to decide who gets the boot from their rotation between Dave Bush, Manny Parra and Carlos Villanueva. Two of those three will be two-start pitchers in Week 4, and as of press time, I'm picking Bush to be bumped. ... The Rays could get Matt Garza back as early as April 25, putting James Shields' status as a two-start pitcher in slight jeopardy. He'd rank ninth instead of 11th on this list if guaranteed to pitch on April 27.

Tristan H. Cockcroft covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.