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April 26, 2008, 1:51 PM

Forecaster: Lineups, matchups, two-start pitchers

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By Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN.com
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On tap: It's a week of players on the mend, as Moises Alou, Tom Glavine, Scott Kazmir, Alfonso Soriano and Shane Victorino are all due back during Week 5. Kazmir gets quite the challenge in his first start back; he'll pitch at Boston on May 3 or 4.

Quick click by section: Game breakdowns | Hitters' matchups | Basestealers' matchups | Pitchers' matchups | Two-start pitchers

Note: Weather reports are based on upcoming weather forecasts (through Friday), as well as historical trends in those cities. "Poor weather" doesn't guarantee rainouts; those are merely the teams with the highest probability of one or more.

Note: Hitter-friendly ballparks are based primarily on three-year statistical data (2005-07) comparing home/road performance, much the same method as our Park Factor page. Some personal opinion does go into making ballpark selections.

Player tips: If Moises Alou (NYM) returns to action to begin Week 5 as expected, he's not a bad choice in NL-only or deep-mixed formats. He's a .340 hitter with nine home runs and a .957 OPS in 40 career games at Arizona's Chase Field. ... Chone Figgins (LAA) is a .395 hitter with a .969 OPS in 61 games at Angel Stadium since the start of last season. ... Franklin Gutierrez (CLE) is a .309 hitter with 12 homers and a .972 OPS in 60 games at Jacobs Field since the start of last season. ... Andruw Jones (LAD) might be off to a slow start, but he's hitting .316 with a 1.041 OPS against left-handers this season. He's also a .355 hitter with 13 homers and a 1.179 OPS in 42 career games at Colorado's Coors Field. ... Jeff Kent (LAD) is a .367 hitter with 20 homers and a 1.125 OPS in 72 career games at Coors. ... Jhonny Peralta (CLE) is a .283 hitter with 18 homers and a .847 OPS in 88 games at Progressive Field since the start of last season. ... Aaron Rowand (SF) returns to Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park for the first time since leaving the Phillies as a free agent this past winter. He's a .294 hitter with 23 homers and an .850 OPS in 143 career games there.

Note: Matchups are determined by examining both an opponent's catcher and pitching staff. Obviously, teams like the Tigers (catcher: Ivan Rodriguez) and Mets (Brian Schneider) rate as tough teams to run on, while teams like the Padres (Josh Bard/Michael Barrett) and Yankees (Jorge Posada) rate as easy teams to run on.

Player tips: Melky Cabrera (NYY) is the only Yankee to have successfully stolen a base in nine home games this season. Temper your expectations from them in the category accounting for the matchups. ... Felipe Lopez (WAS) has started each of the Nationals' past eight games, and has two stolen bases in 10 home games this season. ... Shane Victorino (PHI) is expected back from the DL on April 29, the first day he's eligible, and he faces great matchups as a base stealer in his first week back. He has 38 steals in his past 143 games played.

Note: As with the hitter-friendly ballparks, pitcher-friendly ballparks are based mostly on 2005-07 data, with some personal opinion involved.

Player tips: Chad Billingsley (LAD) might have won his only career start at Florida's Dolphin Stadium, a six-inning, one-run effort on Aug. 5, 2006, but flash forward to today and he's off to a slow start, struggling with his command, and the Marlins rank first in MLB in team OPS against right-handers (.870). For Billingsley's career, left-handers have batted .300 with an .806 OPS against him, so beware in his start there on April 30. ... Mark Buehrle (CHW) is 10-5 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 17 career games (15 starts) at Minnesota's Metrodome, where he's scheduled to start on April 30. ... Ryan Dempster (CHC) has already beaten the Brewers at home this season, limiting them to an earned run in six innings on April 3, and he'll start against them again at Wrigley Field on April 30. ... Dana Eveland (OAK) may be off to a hot start, with a 2.48 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, but he'll start once in Week 5, on April 30 against the Angels, who boast MLB's best team OPS against left-handers (.898). ... Shawn Hill (WAS) is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in two career starts against the Braves, whom he'll face on April 30. ... Dustin McGowan (TOR) was pounded in his only career start at Boston's Fenway Park, allowing six runs on eight hits in five innings, three on home runs, on July 14, 2007. He'll pitch there again on April 30. ... Jamie Moyer (PHI) is 10-5 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 21 career starts at Citizens Bank Park, and he'll be battling the Padres, a weak team against left-handers, on April 30. ... Scott Olsen (FLA) is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA and 2.18 WHIP in two career starts against the Dodgers, a team that hits left-handers well. He'll start against them on May 1. ... Oliver Perez (NYM) is 8-7 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 23 career starts at Shea Stadium, and he faces the Pirates, another weak team against southpaws, on April 29. ... Ervin Santana (LAA) is 7-1 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 10 career games (nine starts) against the Athletics, against whom he'll start on April 30.

Two-start notes: Though it's a decent week for two-start pitchers, don't get too creative with lesser options. Once you get to, say, Nos. 17-18 in the rankings, a one-start pitcher with a favorable matchup might be your better choice.

Tristan H. Cockcroft covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.