Fantasy Forecaster: Erik Bedard best two-start pitcher
On tap: Interleague play kicks off -- at least briefly -- late in Week 7, with the mid-May "traditional rivalries" weekend that merely previews the full interleague matchups coming in June. That means Astros-Rangers, Dodgers-Angels, Indians-Reds, Mets-Yankees and Nationals-Orioles, but surprisingly not Cubs-White Sox, from May 16-18.
Eight of the 14 interleague series are scheduled will be played at National League parks, where the designated hitter won't be in play. That's bad news for Travis Hafner (@CIN-3), Jason Kubel (@COL-3), Mike Sweeney, Frank Thomas (@ATL-3) and Jim Thome (@SF-3), who each could lose up to three games. Billy Butler (@FLA-3) probably will sneak in some at-bats at first base.
Among National League hitters who could pick up extra at-bats due to the addition of the designated hitter -- either as the DH or standing in for another player shifted to DH -- in interleague series at American League parks: Tony Clark (@SEA-3), Darin Erstad (@TEX-3), all four Dodgers outfielders (@LAA-3) and Gabe Kapler (@BOS-3). (For more, check out Brendan Roberts' interleague look.)
Quick click by section: Game breakdowns | Hitters' matchups | Base stealers' matchups | Pitchers' matchups | Two-start pitchers
Note: Weather reports are based on upcoming weather forecasts (through Friday), as well as historical trends in those cities. "Poor weather" doesn't guarantee rainouts; those are merely the teams with the highest probability of one or more.
| Seven games | Eight games |
| Angels (CHW-4, LAD-3) | Blue Jays (@CLE-2, @MIN-3, @PHI-3) |
| Astros (@SF-4, @TEX-3) | Braves (@PIT-2, @PHI-3, OAK-3) |
| Brewers (STL-1, LAD-3, @BOS-3) | Indians (TOR-2, OAK-3, @CIN-3) |
| Cardinals (@MIL-1, PIT-3, TB-3) | Pirates (ATL-2, @STL-3, @CHC-3) |
| Cubs (SD-4, PIT-3) | |
| Giants (HOU-4, CHW-3) | Five games |
| Marlins (@CIN-4, KC-3) | Orioles (BOS-2, WAS-3) |
| Mets (WAS-4, @NYY-3) | |
| Nationals (@NYM-4, @BAL-3) | |
| Padres (@CHC-4, @SEA-3) | |
| Rays (NYY-4, @STL-3) | |
| Reds (FLA-4, CLE-3) | |
| Twins (BOS-1, TOR-3, @COL-3) | |
| White Sox (@LAA-4, @SF-3) | |
| Yankees (@TB-4, NYM-3) | |
| Six games, all home | Six games, all road |
| Diamondbacks (COL-3, DET-3) | Athletics (@CLE-3, @ATL-3) |
| Phillies (ATL-3, TOR-3) | Dodgers (@MIL-3, @LAA-3) |
| Rangers (SEA-3, HOU-3) | Tigers (@KC-3, @ARI-3) |
| Good weather (* -- weatherproof) | Riskier weather |
| Angels (CHW-4, LAD-3) | Cardinals (@MIL-1, PIT-3, TB-3) |
| Astros (@SF-4, @TEX-3) | Cubs (SD-4, PIT-3) |
| Diamondbacks * (COL-3, DET-3) | Indians (TOR-2, OAK-3, @CIN-3) |
| Dodgers (@MIL-3, @LAA-3) | Mets (WAS-4, @NYY-3) |
| Giants (HOU-4, CHW-3) | Nationals (@NYM-4, @BAL-3) |
| Mariners (@TEX-3, SD-3) | Pirates (ATL-2, @STL-3, @CHC-3) |
| Rangers (SEA-3, HOU-3) | Reds (FLA-4, CLE-3) |
| Rockies (@ARI-3, MIN-3) | Phillies (ATL-3, TOR-3) |
| Twins (BOS-1, TOR-3, @COL-3) | Red Sox (@MIN-1, @BAL-2, MIL-3) |
| White Sox (@LAA-4, @SF-3) |
Note: Hitter-friendly ballparks are based primarily on three-year statistical data (2005-07) comparing home/road performance, much the same method as our Park Factor page. Some personal opinion does go into making ballpark selections.
| Good for hitters | Poor for hitters |
| Cubs (SD-4, PIT-3) | Athletics (@CLE-3, @ATL-3) |
| Diamondbacks (COL-3, DET-3) | Brewers (STL-1, LAD-3, @BOS-3) |
| Mariners (@TEX-3, SD-3) | Pirates (ATL-1, @STL-3, @CHC-3) |
| Red Sox (@MIN-1, @BAL-2, MIL-3) | White Sox (@LAA-4, @SF-3) |
| Games at hitter-friendly ballparks | |
| Chase Field (ARI): Rockies, May 13-15; Tigers, May 16-18 | |
| Citizens Bank Park (PHI): Braves, May 13-15; Blue Jays, May 16-18 | |
| Coors Field (COL): Twins, May 16-18 | |
| Great American Ball Park (CIN): Marlins, May 12-15; Indians, May 16-18 | |
| Rangers Ballpark (TEX): Mariners, May 12-14; Astros, May 16-18 | |
| U.S. Cellular Field (CHW): No games | |
| Wrigley Field (CHC): Padres, May 12-15; Pirates, May 16-18 | |
| Lefty- heavy | Righty-heavy |
| Blue Jays (3 LHP, 5 RHP) | Brewers (7 RHP, 0 LHP) |
| Braves (3 LHP, 5 RHP) | Indians (7 RHP, 1 LHP) |
| Cubs (5 LHP, 2 RHP) | Marlins (7 RHP, 0 LHP) |
| Diamondbacks (3 LHP, 3 RHP) | Pirates (8 RHP, 0 LHP) |
| Mariners (3 LHP, 3 RHP) | Red Sox (6 RHP, 0 LHP) |
| Mets (4 LHP, 3 RHP) | Twins (6 RHP, 1 LHP) |
| Nationals (3 LHP, 4 RHP) | |
| Orioles (3 LHP, 2 RHP) | |
| Padres (3 LHP, 4 RHP) | |
| Reds (3 LHP, 3 RHP, 1 TBD) | |
| Royals (4 LHP, 2 RHP) | |
| White Sox (3 LHP, 4 RHP) | |
Player tips: Miguel Cabrera (DET) is a .400 hitter with four home runs, 13 RBIs and a 1.194 OPS in 13 career games at Arizona's Chase Field, where he'll play May 16-18. ... Raul Ibanez (SEA) is a .296 hitter with seven homers, 24 RBIs and an .843 OPS in 53 career games at Texas' Rangers Ballpark, where he'll play May 12-14. ... Nate McLouth (PIT) is a .286 hitter with five homers and a 1.175 OPS in 15 career games at Chicago's Wrigley Field, where he'll play May 16-18. ... Matt Stairs (TOR) is a .556 hitter with six homers, 10 RBIs and a 2.211 OPS in five career games at Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park, where he'll play May 16-18. ... Willy Taveras (COL) is a .360 hitter with nine RBIs, four stolen bases and an .847 OPS in 17 career games at Arizona's Chase Field, where he'll play May 13-15. ... Mark Teixeira (ATL) is a .250 hitter with five homers, 13 RBIs and a 1.058 OPS in nine career games at Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park, where he'll play May 13-15. ... Dan Uggla (FLA) is a .296 hitter with four homers, nine RBIs and a 1.086 OPS in six career games at Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park, where he'll play May 12-15. ... Ty Wigginton (HOU) is a .395 hitter with three homers, 13 RBIs and a 1.214 OPS in nine career games at Texas' Rangers Ballpark, where he'll play May 16-18.
Note: Matchups are determined by examining an opponent's catcher and pitching staff. Obviously, teams like the Mets (Brian Schneider) and Twins (Joe Mauer) rate as tough teams to run on, while teams like the Padres (Josh Bard) and Red Sox (Jason Varitek) rate as easy teams to run on.
| Good for stolen bases | Poor for stolen bases |
| Cubs (SD-4 PIT-3) | Blue Jays (@CLE-2, @MIN-3, @PHI-3) |
| Mariners (@TEX-3, SD-3) | Braves (@PIT-2, @PHI-3, OAK-3) |
| Phillies (ATL-3, TOR-3) | Indians (TOR-2, OAK-3, @CIN-3) |
| Twins (BOS-1, TOR-3, @COL-3) | Marlins (@CIN-4, KC-3) |
Player tips: I was awfully tempted to put the Mets among the "good for stolen bases" side, accounting for the fantasy-friendliness on paper of their schedule (WAS-4, @NYY-3). The problem, though, is that the catchers most responsible for the Nationals' and Yankees' poor numbers in the category, Paul Lo Duca and Jorge Posada, are on the disabled list, and their temporary stand-ins Jesus Flores and Jose Molina, are markedly better at gunning down opposing baserunners. Don't put it past the Mets to look at the on-paper numbers and keep running wild with Luis Castillo, Angel Pagan, Jose Reyes and David Wright, but their success rates could be a bit at risk if they do so. ... Ryan Theriot (CHC) has three stolen bases in six games against the Pirates this season, while Kosuke Fukudome has two in five contests against them. ... Jayson Werth (PHI) has four stolen bases in 15 home games this season, while Chase Utley has three in 18 home contests. ... Carlos Gomez (MIN) has six stolen bases in his past nine games (through May 9). ... The Blue Jays attempted only two stolen bases in a three-game series at Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park in 2007, and were thrown out each time (John McDonald, Vernon Wells).
Note: As with the hitter-friendly ballparks, pitcher-friendly ballparks are based mostly on 2005-07 data, with some personal opinion involved.
| Good for pitchers | Poor for pitchers |
| Cubs (SD-4, PIT-3) | Brewers (STL-1, LAD-3, @BOS-3) |
| Dodgers (@MIL-3, @LAA-3) | Pirates (ATL-1, @STL-3, @CHC-3) |
| Indians (TOR-1, OAK-3, @CIN-3) | Royals (DET-3, @FLA-3) |
| Red Sox (@MIN-1, @BAL-2, MIL-3) | Twins (BOS-1, TOR-3, @COL-3) |
| Games at pitcher-friendly ballparks | |
| Busch Stadium (STL): Pirates, May 13-15; Rays, May 16-18 | |
| Dolphin Stadium (FLA): Royals, May 16-18 | |
| McAfee Coliseum (OAK): No games | |
| Metrodome (MIN): Red Sox, May 12; Blue Jays, May 13-15 | |
| Petco Park (SD): No games | |
| Safeco Field (SEA): Padres, May 16-18 | |
| Shea Stadium (NYM): Nationals, May 12-15 | |
Player tips: Ted Lilly (CHC) is 3-0 with a 2.19 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in four career games (three starts) against the Padres, his scheduled May 14 opponent. ... Scott Olsen (FLA) is 3-2 with a 2.20 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in seven career interleague starts, and he's scheduled to face the Royals on May 16. ... Troy Percival (TB) had a 0.84 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and .153 BAA in 17 games at St. Louis' Busch Stadium when he pitched for the Cardinals in 2007. The Rays visit there May 16-18. ... Jon Rauch (WAS) has a 1.23 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and .200 BAA in 13 career games at New York's Shea Stadium, where the Nationals visit May 12-15. ... Ervin Santana (LAA) is 27-9 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 46 career home starts, and 2-2 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in four career starts against the Dodgers, his scheduled May 16 opponent. ... Brett Tomko (KC) has a 4-1 record, 2.54 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in eight career games (six starts) at Florida's Dolphin Stadium, where he's scheduled to start on May 16. ... Todd Wellemeyer (STL) is 5-2 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 18 career games (11 starts) at St. Louis' Busch Stadium, where he's scheduled to face the Pirates on May 14. ... Chris Young (SD) is 2-0 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in three career starts at Seattle's Safeco Field, where he's scheduled to start on May 16.
Two-start notes: Jon Gottesman of Long Beach, N.Y., made an interesting point about two-start pitchers in my mailbag, that in a few of my Forecasters I've noted a sort of "cut-off point" at which it'd probably be better to use a strong one-start option instead. That in mind, I'll include that looking forward, and in Week 7, I'd say it's right around No. 25, between John Danks and Jason Marquis. Of course, elite, top-10 pitchers making one start shouldn't ever be benched, but I'd certainly use a top-25 starter with one strong matchup ahead of a guy like Marquis, probably over Danks, too. ... I'd call Matt Garza, Mark Hendrickson, Kyle Kendrick, John Lannan and Randy Wolf pretty decent two-start values among those who missed the top 25. ... The Angels could slot John Lackey into their rotation during their Week 7 homestand, threatening Nick Adenhart's status as a two-start pitcher. ... The Orioles could skip Steve Trachsel's scheduled start on May 16, giving Jeremy Guthrie two starts (May 13, BOS, and May 18, WAS).
| Two- start pitchers -- the top 25 | ||
| Pitcher (Team) | First start (Opponent) | Second start (Opponent) |
| 1. Carlos Zambrano (CHC) | May 12, SD (Wolf) | May 17, PIT (Duke) |
| Last 5 GS: 4-0, 1.02 ERA, 1.13 WHIP ... 2008 home: 5 GS, 3-0, 1.59 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .242 BAA | ||
| 2. Erik Bedard (SEA) | May 12, @TEX (Padilla) | May 18, SD (Ledezma) |
| Last 5 GS: 2-2, 1.99 ERA, 1.07 WHIP ... Career at Rangers Ballpark: 3 GS, 1-1, 3.72 ERA, 1.14 WHIP | ||
| 3. Aaron Harang (CIN) | May 12, FLA (Badenhop) | May 17, CLE (Carmona) |
| Last 5 GS: 0-4, 3.67 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, .264 BAA ... Career versus CLE: 7 GS, 3-1, 2.38 ERA, 1.15 WHIP | ||
| 4. Tim Hudson (ATL) | May 12, @PIT, (Van Benschoten) | May 18, OAK (Duchscherer) |
| Last 5 GS: 3-2, 3.45 ERA, 1.33 WHIP ... Career at PNC Park: 3.43 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, .221 WHIP | ||
| 5. Roy Oswalt (HOU) | May 12, @SF (Zito) | May 17, @TEX (Ponson) |
| Last 5 GS: 3-0, 3.55 ERA, 1.24 WHIP ... Career at Rangers Ballpark: 6 GS, 2-3, 3.21 ERA, 1.26 WHIP | ||
| 6. Cliff Lee (CLE) | May 12, TOR, Gm. 2 (Marcum) | May 18, @CIN (Volquez) |
| Last 5 GS: 5-0, 0.95 ERA, 0.58 WHIP ... Career at Great American: 3 GS, 2-1, 4.08 ERA, 1.30 WHIP | ||
| 7. Chien-Ming Wang (NYY) | May 13, @TB (E. Jackson) | May 18, NYM (Maine) |
| Last 5 GS: 3-1, 4.50 ERA, 1.43 WHIP ... June 17, 2007 versus NYM: Win, 8 2/3 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 10 K's | ||
| 8. Zack Greinke (KC) | May 13, DET (Robertson) | May 18, @FLA (Hendrickson) |
| Last 5 GS: 2-1, 2.31 ERA, 1.00 WHIP ... Career versus DET: 14 G, 11 GS, 7-3, 3.15 ERA, 1.23 WHIP | ||
| 9. Andy Pettitte (NYY) | May 12, @TB (Garza) | May 17, NYM (Ol. Perez) |
| Last 5 GS: 2-2, 4.02 ERA, 1.31 WHIP ... Career versus NYM: 16 GS, 7-3, 3.42 ERA, 1.21 WHIP | ||
| 10. Fausto Carmona (CLE) | May 12, TOR, Gm. 1 (Burnett) | May 17, @CIN (Harang) |
| Last 5 GS: 2-1, 4.05 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, .317 BAA ... July 7, 2007 at TOR: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 5 K's | ||
| 11. Adam Wainwright (STL) | May 12, @MIL (Bush) | May 17, TB (Garza) |
| Last 5 GS: 2-0, 1.70 ERA, 0.89 WHIP ... Career at Miller Park: 7 G, 3 GS, 1-1, 2.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP | ||
| 12. Brad Penny (LAD) | May 13, @MIL (Villanueva) | May 18, @LAA (Jer. Weaver) |
| Last 5 GS: 4-1, 5.40 ERA, 1.38 WHIP ... 2007-08 road: 17 GS, 10-3, 2.96 ERA, 1.32 WHIP | ||
| 13. Edinson Volquez (CIN) | May 13, FLA (Hendrickson) | May 18, CLE (Cl. Lee) |
| Last 5 GS: 4-1, 1.13 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, .180 BAA ... 2008 home: 3 GS, 3-0, 0.93 ERA, 1.24 WHIP | ||
| 14. John Maine (NYM) | May 13, WAS (Lannan) | May 18, @NYY (Wang) |
| Last 5 GS: 4-1, 2.53 ERA, 1.13 WHIP ... Career versus WAS: 8 GS, 4-2, 4.84 ERA, 1.25 WHIP | ||
| 15. Matt Cain (SF) | May 13, HOU (Backe) | May 18, CHW (Danks) |
| Last 5 GS: 1-2, 5.22 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, .259 BAA ... Career home: 42 GS, 14-16, 3.28 ERA, 1.22 WHIP | ||
| 16. Clay Buchholz (BOS) | May 12, @MIN (L. Hernandez) | May 18, MIL (Villanueva) |
| Last 5 GS: 2-1, 5.00 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, .284 BAA ... Has never faced MIL or MIN in his career | ||
| 17. Jered Weaver (LAA) | May 13, CHW (Danks) | May 18, LAD (Penny) |
| Last 5 GS: 1-3, 6.83 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, .342 BAA ... Career home: 25 GS, 13-6, 3.24 ERA, 1.25 WHIP | ||
| 18. Jair Jurrjens (ATL) | May 12, @PIT, Gm. 1 (Duke) | May 17, OAK (Harden) |
| Last 5 GS: 3-1, 2.25 ERA, 0.91 WHIP ... April 2, 2008 versus PIT: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 5 K's | ||
| 19. Jeff Francis (COL) | May 13, @ARI (Ra. Johnson) | May 18, MIN (Slowey) |
| Last 5 GS: 0-1, 3.73 ERA, 1.31 WHIP ... Career at Chase Field: 8 GS, 4-1, 4.24 ERA, 1.26 WHIP | ||
| 20. Mark Buehrle (CHW) | May 12, @LAA (Adenhart) | May 17, @SF (Zito) |
| Last 5 GS: 0-4, 4.54 ERA, 1.37 WHIP ... Career at Angel Stadium: 6 GS, 3.24 ERA, 1.27 WHIP | ||
| 21. Shaun Marcum (TOR) | May 12, @CLE, Gm. 2 (Cl. Lee) | May 18, @PHI (K. Kendrick) |
| Last 5 GS: 3-2, 2.60 ERA, 0.95 WHIP ... May 19, 2007 at Citizens Bank: Win, 6 IP 4 H, 2 ER, 6 K's | ||
| 22. Randy Johnson (ARI) | May 13, COL (Francis) | May 18, DET (Robertson) |
| Last 5 GS: 2-1, 5.06 ERA, 1.43 WHIP ... Career versus COL: 15-7, 2.27 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, .195 BAA | ||
| 23. A.J. Burnett (TOR) | May 12, @CLE, Gm. 1 (Carmona) | May 17, @PHI (Eaton) |
| Last 5 GS: 2-2, 4.26 ERA, 1.52 WHIP ... Career at Jacobs Field: 3 GS, 0-3, 11.57 ERA, 2.51 WHIP | ||
| 24. John Danks (CHW) | May 13, @LAA (Jer. Weaver) | May 18, @SF (Cain) |
| Last 5 GS: 3-2, 1.76 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, .217 BAA ... 2008 road: 3 GS, 1.47 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, .176 BAA | ||
| 25. Jason Marquis (CHC) | May 13, SD (Ledezma) | May 18, PIT (Dumatrait) |
| Last 5 GS: 1-2, 4.76 ERA, 1.73 WHIP ... 2007-08 versus PIT: 5 GS, 3-1, 4.45 ERA, 1.15 WHIP | ||
| The rest (in alphabetical order): Nick Adenhart (LAA), May 12, CHW (Buehrle), May 17, LAD (Park); Brandon Backe (HOU), May 13, @SF (Cain), May 18, @TEX (Padilla); Burke Badenhop (FLA), May 12, @CIN (Harang), May 17, KC (Bannister); Dave Bush (MIL), May 12, STL (Wainwright), May 17, @BOS (Wakefield); Justin Duchscherer (OAK), May 13, @CLE (P. Byrd), May 18, @ATL (T. Hudson); Zach Duke (PIT), May 12, Gm. 1, ATL (Jurrjens), May 17, @CHC (C. Zambrano); Phil Dumatrait (PIT), May 13, STL (Lohse), May 18, @CHC (Marquis); Shawn Estes (SD), May 13, @CHC (Marquis), May 18, @SEA (Bedard); Nate Robertson (DET), May 13, @KC (Greinke), May 18, @ARI (Ra. Johnson); Matt Garza (TB), May 12, NYY (Pettitte), May 17, @STL (Wainwright); Mark Hendrickson (FLA), May 13, @CIN (Volquez), May 18, KC (Greinke); Livan Hernandez (MIN), May 12, BOS (C. Buchholz), May 17, @COL (G. Reynolds); Edwin Jackson (TB), May 13, NYY (Wang), May 18, @STL (Lohse); Kyle Kendrick (PHI), May 13, ATL (Jo-Jo Reyes), May 18, TOR (Marcum); John Lannan (WAS), May 13, @NYM (Maine), May 18, @BAL (Burres); Kyle Lohse (STL), May 13, PIT (Dumatrait), May 18, TB (E. Jackson); Vicente Padilla (TEX), May 12, SEA (Bedard), May 18, HOU (Backe); Odalis Perez (WAS), May 12, @NYM (Figueroa), May 17, @BAL (Olson); Kevin Slowey (MIN), May 13, TOR (Litsch), May 18, @COL (Francis); Carlos Villanueva (MIL), May 13, LAD (Penny), May 18, @BOS (C. Buchholz); Randy Wolf (SD), May 12, @CHC (C. Zambrano), May 17, @SEA (M. Batista); Barry Zito (SF), May 12, HOU (Oswalt), May 17, CHW (Buehrle). | ||
Tristan H. Cockcroft covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.
