May 25, 2008, 5:29 PM

Fantasy Forecaster: Colon gets two-start week

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Cockcroft By Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN.com
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On tap: Week 9 kicks off with 11 Memorial Day contests, and a slew of standout two-start pitchers, including Scott Kazmir, Ben Sheets and Brandon Webb. Check below; if there were ever a week to go the quantity route regarding starting pitching, this is it. Even newest Red Sox Bartolo Colon gets my nod!

Quick click by section: Game breakdowns | Hitters' matchups | Basestealers' matchups | Pitchers' matchups | Two-start pitchers

Note: Weather reports are based on upcoming weather forecasts (through Friday), as well as historical trends in those cities. "Poor weather" doesn't guarantee rainouts; those are merely the teams with the highest probability of one or more.

Seven games
Blue Jays (KC-1, @OAK-3, @LAA-3)Mets (FLA-3, LAD-4)
Braves (ARI-1, @MIL-3, @CIN-3)Nationals (MIL-1, @SD-3, @ARI-3)
Brewers (@WAS-1, ATL-3, HOU-3)Rays (TEX-3, CHW-4)
Cubs (LAD-3, COL-4)Rockies (@PHI-3, @CHC-4)
Diamondbacks (@ATL-1, SF-3, WAS-3)Royals (@TOR-1, MIN-3, CLE-3)
Dodgers (@CHC-3, @NYM-4)White Sox (@CLE-3, @TB-4)
Six games, all homeSix games, all road
Angels (DET-3, TOR-3)Astros (@STL-3, @MIL-3)
Cardinals (HOU-3, PIT-3)Marlins (@NYM-3, @PHI-3)
Mariners (BOS-3, DET-3)Pirates (@CIN-3, @STL-3)
Orioles (NYY-3, BOS-3)Red Sox (@SEA-3, @BAL-3)
Phillies (COL-3, FLA-3)Tigers (@LAA-3, @SEA-3)
Reds (PIT-3, ATL-3)Yankees (@BAL-3, @MIN-3)
Good weather (* -- weatherproof)Riskier weather
Angels (DET-3, TOR-3)Cubs (LAD-3, COL-4)
Blue Jays (KC-1, @OAK-3, @LAA-3)Dodgers (@CHC-3, @NYM-4)
Brewers (@WAS-1, ATL-3, HOU-3)Indians (CHW-3, @KC-3)
Diamondbacks (@ATL-1, SF-3, WAS-3)Marlins (@NYM-3, @PHI-3)
Giants (@ARI-3, SD-3)Mets (FLA-3, LAD-4)
Mariners * (BOS-3, DET-3)Phillies (COL-3, FLA-3)
Nationals (MIL-1, @SD-3, @ARI-3)Rockies (@PHI-3, @CHC-4)
Padres (WAS-3, @SF-3)
Rays * (TEX-3, CHW-4)
Tigers (@LAA-3, @SEA-3)

Note: Hitter-friendly ballparks are based primarily on recent statistical data (2005-08) comparing home/road performance, much the same method as our Park Factor page. Some personal opinion does go into making ballpark selections.

Good for hittersPoor for hitters
Athletics (TOR-3, @TEX-3) Blue Jays (KC-1, @OAK-3, @LAA-3)
Braves (ARI-1, @MIL-3, @CIN-3) Marlins (@NYM-3, @PHI-3)
Diamondbacks (@ATL-1, SF-3, WAS-3) Nationals (MIL-1, @SD-3, @ARI-3)
Red Sox (@SEA-3, @BAL-3) White Sox (@CLE-3, @TB-4)
Games at hitter-friendly ballparks
Chase Field (ARI): Giants, May 27-29; Nationals, May 30-June 1
Citizens Bank Park (PHI): Rockies, May 26-28; Marlins, May 30-June 1
Coors Field (COL): No games
Great American Ball Park (CIN): Pirates, May 27-29; Braves, May 30-June 1
Rangers Ballpark (TEX): Athletics, May 30-June 1
U.S. Cellular Field (CHW): No games
Wrigley Field (CHC): Dodgers, May 26-28; Rockies, May 29-June 1
Lefty-heavyRighty-heavy
Cardinals (3 LHP, 3 RHP)Athletics (6 RHP, 0 LHP)
Cubs (3 LHP, 4 RHP)Braves (7 RHP, 0 LHP)
Giants (3 LHP, 3 RHP)Brewers (6 RHP, 1 LHP)
Marlins (4 LHP, 2 RHP)Dodgers (6 RHP, 1 LHP)
Mets (3 LHP, 4 RHP)Pirates (6 RHP, 0 LHP)
Nationals (3 LHP, 4 RHP)Twins (6 RHP, 0 LHP)
Padres (3 LHP, 3 RHP)
Rays (3 LHP, 4 RHP)
Red Sox (3 LHP, 3 RHP)
Reds (3 LHP, 3 RHP)
Yankees (3 LHP, 3 RHP)

Hitter value plays
Hitter (Team)ScheduleMay stats
Jack Cust (OAK)(TOR-3, @TEX-3)19 G, .339 AVG, 6 HR, 1.151 OPS
Career at Rangers Ballpark: 9 G, .280 AVG, .900 OPS ... 2008 versus RHP: .258 AVG, .960 OPS
Mark DeRosa (CHC)(LAD-3, COL-4)18 G, .317 AVG, 1 HR, .815 OPS
2008 home: 26 G, .402 AVG, 1.077 OPS ... Career at Wrigley Field: 107 G, .324 AVG, .879 OPS
Mark Ellis (OAK)(TOR-3, @TEX-3)10 G, .200 AVG, 1 HR, .660 OPS
Career at Rangers Ballpark: 45 G, .390 AVG, 1.005 OPS ... 2008 versus RHP: .276 AVG, .790 OPS
Andre Ethier (LAD)(@CHC-3, @NYM-4)14 G, .250 AVG, 2 HR, .714 OPS
2008 road: 22 G, .284 AVG, 3 HR, .810 OPS ... 2008 versus RHP: .337 AVG, .918 OPS
Kelly Johnson (ATL)(ARI-1, @MIL-3, @CIN-3)17 G, .383 AVG, 1 HR, 1.068 OPS
Career at Great American: 9 G, .387 AVG, 1.138 OPS ... 2008 versus RHP: .286 AVG, .922 OPS
Mark Kotsay (ATL)(ARI-1, @MIL-3, @CIN-3)19 G, .310 AVG, 3 HR, .840 OPS
Career at Miller Park: 6 G, .417 AVG, 1.107 OPS ... 2008 versus RHP: .350 AVG, .968 OPS
Kevin Kouzmanoff (SD)(WAS-3, @SF-3)20 G, .300 AVG, 3 HR, .800 OPS
Career versus LHP: .338 AVG, .918 OPS ... April 7-9, 2008, at AT&T Park: 3 G, 4-for-12
Xavier Nady (PIT)(@CIN-3, @STL-3)19 G, .304 AVG, 3 HR, .895 OPS
Career at Great American: 21 G, .370 AVG, 1.054 OPS ... 2008 versus RHP: .313 AVG, .871 OPS
Chris Snyder (ARI)(@ATL-1, SF-3, WAS-3)16 G, .354 AVG, 3 HR, 1.056 OPS
2008 home: 24 G, .308 AVG, 2 HR, .968 OPS ... 2008 versus LHP: .282 AVG, .828 OPS
Randy Winn (SF)(@ARI-3, SD-3)19 G, .346 AVG, 2 HR, .911 OPS
Career at Chase Field: 24 G, .391 AVG, 6 HR, 1.105 OPS ... 2008 versus LHP: .333 AVG, .898 OPS
All statistics above are through the games of Thursday, May 22.

Note: Matchups are determined by examining both an opponent's catcher and pitching staff. Obviously, teams like the Indians (catcher: Victor Martinez) and Mets (Brian Schneider) and rate as tough teams to run on, while teams like the Dodgers (Russell Martin) and Orioles (Ramon Hernandez) rate as easy teams to run on.

Good for stolen basesTop speedsters
Cubs (LAD-3, COL-4)Ryan Theriot (9 SB), Kosuke Fukudome (4)
Diamondbacks (@ATL-1, SF-3, WAS-3)Mark Reynolds (5), Eric Byrnes (4)
Orioles (NYY-3, BOS-3)Brian Roberts (13), Nick Markakis (6), Adam Jones (4)
Rays (TEX-3, CHW-4)Carl Crawford (12), B.J. Upton (11)
Poor for stolen basesTop speedsters
Dodgers (@CHC-3, @NYM-4)Juan Pierre (18), Matt Kemp (9), Rafael Furcal (8)
Pirates (@CIN-3, @STL-3)Nate McLouth (5), Jason Bay (4)
Royals (@TOR-1, MIN-3, CLE-3)Joey Gathright (12), Tony Pena Jr. (3)
White Sox (@CLE-3, @TB-4)Orlando Cabrera (5), Carlos Quentin (4)

Note: As with the hitter-friendly ballparks, pitcher-friendly ballparks are based mostly on 2005-08 data, with some personal opinion involved.

Good for pitchersPoor for pitchers
Diamondbacks (@ATL-1, SF-3, WAS-3) Mariners (BOS-3, DET-3)
Padres (WAS-3, @SF-3) Marlins (@NYM-3, @PHI-3)
Red Sox (@SEA-3, @BAL-3) Orioles (NYY-3, BOS-3)
Royals (@TOR-1, MIN-3, CLE-3) Rockies (@PHI-3, @CHC-4)
Games at pitcher-friendly ballparks
Busch Stadium (STL): Astros, May 27-29; Pirates, May 30-June 1
Dolphin Stadium (FLA): No games
McAfee Coliseum (OAK): Blue Jays, May 27-29
Metrodome (MIN): Yankees, May 30-June 1
Petco Park (SD): Nationals, May 27-29
Safeco Field (SEA): Red Sox, May 26-28; Tigers, May 30-June 1
Shea Stadium (NYM): Marlins, May 26-28; Dodgers, May 29-June 1

Two-start notes: You'll notice a tweak to my two-start chart beginning this week; I'm now ranking all the pitchers I'd consider using even down to fairly deep AL- or NL-only leagues, as opposed to a flat 25. The reasoning: Some weeks are stronger, others weaker. As such I've now got two cut-off points, cut-off point "A," for the spot where you might not want to be so bold in mixed leagues, and cut-off point "B," where things really tend to get hairy, which is coincidentally also the end of the chart. All two-start pitchers who fail to earn my endorsement are listed in the "no thank you" portion at the bottom. Cut-off point "A" (mixed) for this week is at about No. 26, Darrell Rasner. ... I'm assuming the Orioles are skipping Steve Trachsel as usual due to Thursday's off day, but if they don't, No. 31-ranked Brian Burres would lose his second start (the less appealing of the two anyway).

Two-start pitchers -- Tristan's rankings
Pitcher (Team)First start (Opponent)Second start (Opponent)
1. Brandon Webb (ARI)May 26, @ATL (Jurrjens)May 31, WAS (Bergmann)
Last 5 GS: 4-1, 3.06 ERA, 0.99 WHIP ... Career at Turner Field: 2 GS, 1-0, 16 IP, 8 H, 0 R, 4 BB
2. Johan Santana (NYM)May 27, FLA (A. Miller)June 1, LAD (Kuroda)
Last 5 GS: 2-1, 3.62 ERA, 1.45 WHIP ... Career versus FLA: 3 GS, 3-0, 1.96 ERA, 0.93 WHIP
3. Dan Haren (ARI)May 27, SF (Lincecum)June 1, WAS (S. Hill)
Last 5 GS: 2-2, 3.71 ERA, 0.91 WHIP ... 2008 home: 6 GS, 5-0, 2.27 ERA, 0.83 WHIP
4. Scott Kazmir (TB)May 26, TEX (Ponson)May 31, CHW (J. Vazquez)
Last 4 GS: 3-1, 1.57 ERA, 1.13 WHIP ... 2006-08 home: 32 GS, 11-7, 2.67 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
5. Ben Sheets (MIL)May 26, @WAS (Bergmann)May 31, HOU (Sampson)
Last 5 GS: 2-1, 4.54 ERA, 1.40 WHIP ... 2007-08 versus HOU: 5 GS, 1-0, 3.76 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
6. Tim Lincecum (SF)May 27, @ARI (Haren)June 1, SD (Wolf)
Last 5 GS: 2-1, 3.00 ERA, 1.18 WHIP ... Career versus SD: 4 GS, 1-1, 1.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP
7. Javier Vazquez (CHW)May 26, @CLE (P. Byrd)May 31, @TB (Kazmir)
Last 5 GS: 2-1, 2.57 ERA, 1.00 WHIP ... 2006-08 at Jacobs Field: 6 GS, 3-3, 3.82 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
8. Shaun Marcum (TOR)May 26, KC (Tomko)May 31, @LAA (Lackey)
Last 5 GS: 2-1, 2.32 ERA, 0.71 WHIP ... Aug. 25, 2007 at Angel Stadium: Win, 6 IP, 8 H, 2 ER
9. A.J. Burnett (TOR)May 27, @OAK (G. Smith)June 1, @LAA (Garland)
Last 5 GS: 3-2, 3.48 ERA, 1.22 WHIP ... 2008 road: 6 GS, 3-2, 3.10 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
10. Tim Hudson (ATL)May 27, @MIL (Bush)June 1, @CIN (Cueto)
Last 5 GS: 4-1, 2.25 ERA, 0.92 WHIP ... Career at Miller Park: 3 GS, 2-1, 3.13 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
11. Chad Billingsley (LAD)May 26, @CHC (Dempster)May 31, @NYM (Pelfrey)
Last 5 GS: 4-1, 1.97 ERA, 1.16 WHIP ... Career road: 39 G, 23 GS, 14-7, 3.09 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
12. Jair Jurrjens (ATL)May 26, ARI (Webb)May 31, @CIN (Belisle)
Last 5 GS: 2-1, 1.80 ERA, 1.13 WHIP ... Career: 17 GS, 8-4, 3.33 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
13. Felix Hernandez (SEA)May 26, BOS (Colon)June 1, DET (Rogers)
Last 5 GS: 0-4, 5.46 ERA, 1.79 WHIP ... Career versus BOS: 3 GS, 2-0, 2.91 ERA, 1.02 WHIP
14. Hiroki Kuroda (LAD)May 27, @CHC (Gallagher)June 1, @NYM (J. Santana)
Last 5 GS: 1-1, 3.16 ERA, 1.15 WHIP ... 2008 road: 5 GS, 1-3, 3.09 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
15. Jon Garland (LAA)May 26, DET (Rogers)June 1, TOR (A. Burnett)
Last 5 GS: 2-1, 3.71 ERA, 1.32 WHIP ... Career versus TOR: 16 G, 14 GS, 10-2, 4.17 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
16. Johnny Cueto (CIN)May 27, PIT (Snell)June 1, ATL (T. Hudson)
Last 5 GS: 1-3, 7.71 ERA, 1.84 WHIP ... 2008 home: 5 GS, 2-1, 3.82 ERA, 0.94 WHIP
17. Greg Smith (OAK)May 27, TOR (A. Burnett)June 1, @TEX (Ponson)
Last 5 GS: 0-4, 3.41 ERA, 1.20 WHIP ... May 9, 2008 at Rangers Ballpark: Loss, 6 IP, 6 H, 4 ER
18. Ryan Dempster (CHC)May 26, LAD (Billingsley)May 31, COL (De La Rosa)
Last 5 GS: 2-2, 2.51 ERA, 1.08 WHIP ... 2008 home: 6 GS, 5-0, 3.13 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
19. Randy Wolf (SD)May 27, WAS (S. Hill)June 1, @SF (Lincecum)
Last 5 GS: 1-3, 5.83 ERA, 1.60 WHIP ... Career versus WAS: 18 GS, 9-4, 4.66 ERA, 1.39 WHIP
20. Jamie Moyer (PHI)May 26, COL (De La Rosa)June 1, FLA (Nolasco)
Last 5 GS: 3-2, 4.66 ERA, 1.48 WHIP ... Career versus FLA: 7 GS, 7-0, 3.05 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
21. Braden Looper (STL)May 27, HOU (Chacon)June 1, PIT (Snell)
Last 5 GS: 3-2, 4.60 ERA, 1.56 WHIP ... 2007-08 home: 21 GS, 10-6, 3.46 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
22. Andy Sonnanstine (TB)May 27, TEX (Padilla)June 1, CHW (Buehrle)
Last 5 GS: 3-1, 4.91 ERA, 1.42 WHIP ... Career versus CHW: 2 GS, 1-0, 1.17 ERA, 0.65 WHIP
23. Paul Byrd (CLE)May 26, CHW (J. Vazquez)June 1, @KC (Bannister)
Last 5 GS: 2-2, 3.90 ERA, 0.96 WHIP ... Career versus CHW: 14 GS, 8-3, 4.45 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
24. Mark Buehrle (CHW)May 27, @CLE (Laffey)June 1, @TB (Sonnanstine)
Last 5 GS: 1-3, 4.09 ERA, 1.33 WHIP ... 2007-08 road: 20 GS, 8-6, 3.53 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
25. Bartolo Colon (BOS)May 26, @SEA (F. Hernandez)June 1, @BAL (Burres)
2008 debut (May 21): Win, 5 IP, 6 H, 2 ER ... Career at Safeco Field: 10 GS, 8-1, 2.17 ERA, 0.98 WHIP
26. Darrell Rasner (NYY)May 26, @BAL (Olson)June 1, @MIN (Blackburn)
Last 3 GS: 3-0, 1.89 ERA, 0.84 WHIP ... Career road: 7 G, 5 GS, 2-2, 4.07 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
27. Ian Snell (PIT)May 27, @CIN (Cueto)June 1, @STL (Looper)
Last 5 GS: 0-2, 5.27 ERA, 1.90 WHIP ... 2006-08 road: 38 GS, 10-12, 4.12 ERA, 1.42 WHIP
28. Nick Blackburn (MIN)May 27, @KC (Bannister)June 1, NYY (Rasner)
Last 5 GS: 3-2, 3.66 ERA, 1.44 WHIP ... Career as starter: 10 GS, 4-3, 3.55 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
29. Brian Bannister (KC)May 27, MIN (Blackburn)June 1, CLE (P. Byrd)
Last 5 GS: 1-4, 7.67 ERA, 1.70 WHIP ... Career versus MIN: 4 GS, 3-0, 1.45 ERA, 0.84 WHIP
30. Jason Bergmann (WAS)May 26, MIL (Sheets)May 31, @ARI (Webb)
Last 4 GS: 1-1, 4.44 ERA, 1.27 WHIP ... May 9, 2007 versus MIL: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 K's
31. Ubaldo Jimenez (COL)May 27, @PHI (K. Kendrick)June 1, @CHC (Gallagher)
Last 5 GS: 0-2, 3.19 ERA, 1.19 WHIP ... Sept. 10, 2007 at Citizens Bank Park: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 3 K's
32. Brian Burres (BAL)May 27, NYY (I. Kennedy)June 1, BOS (Colon)
Last 5 GS: 1-3, 3.69 ERA, 1.29 WHIP ... Career versus NYY: 9 G, 5 GS, 2-2, 3.12 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
33. Sidney Ponson (TEX)May 26, @TB (Kazmir)June 1, OAK (G. Smith)
Last 5 GS: 3-0, 3.15 ERA, 1.28 WHIP ... Career at Tropicana Field: 15 GS, 6-5, 3.96 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
No thank you (in alphabetical order):

No thank you (in alphabetical order): Dave Bush (MIL), May 27, ATL (T. Hudson), June 1, HOU (Chacon); Shawn Chacon (HOU), May 27, @STL (Looper), June 1, @MIL (Bush); Jorge De La Rosa (COL), May 26, @PHI (Moyer), May 31, @CHC (Dempster); Sean Gallagher (CHC), May 27, LAD (Kuroda), June 1, COL (U. Jimenez); Shawn Hill (WAS), May 27, @SD (Wolf), June 1, @ARI (Haren); Ricky Nolasco (FLA), May 26, @NYM (Pelfrey), June 1, @PHI (Moyer); Garrett Olson (BAL), May 26, NYY (Rasner), May 31, BOS (Lester); Mike Pelfrey (NYM), May 26, FLA (Nolasco), May 31, LAD (Billingsley); Kenny Rogers (DET), May 26, @LAA (Garland), June 1, @SEA (F. Hernandez); Brett Tomko (KC), May 26, @TOR (Marcum), May 31, CLE (Sabathia).

One-start pitchers -- value plays (owned in under 50 percent of ESPN.com leagues)
Pitcher (Team)Start (Opponent)
Jose Contreras (CHW)May 30, @TB (J. Shields)
Last 5 GS: 4-1, 2.08 ERA, 0.95 WHIP ... Career at Tropicana Field: 4 G, 3 GS, 2-0, 2.70 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
Doug Davis (ARI)May 28, SF (J. Sanchez)
Last 3 GS: 2-1, 2.70 ERA, 1.50 WHIP ... 2007-08 home: 18 GS, 9-3, 4.65 ERA, 1.60 WHIP
Luke Hochevar (KC)May 29, MIN (Slowey)
Last 5 GS: 3-2, 3.19 ERA, 1.29 WHIP ... Career home: 6 G, 4 GS, 2-2, 2.22 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Edwin Jackson (TB)May 29, CHW (Danks)
Last 5 GS: 0-1, 2.30 ERA, 1.37 WHIP ... 2008 home: 5 GS, 1-2, 3.45 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
Kyle Kendrick (PHI)May 27, COL (U. Jimenez)
Last 5 GS: 1-0, 5.25 ERA, 1.58 WHIP ... Home career: 15 GS, 8-2, 3.72 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
John Lannan (WAS)May 29, @SD (Estes)
Last 5 GS: 3-2, 3.38 ERA, 1.43 WHIP ... Career road: 10 GS, 4-3, 2.60 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
Jesse Litsch (TOR)May 29, @OAK (Eveland)
Last 5 GS: 3-1, 3.86 ERA, 0.96 WHIP ... Career at McAfee Coliseum: 2 GS, 0-1, 1.38 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
Greg Maddux (SD)May 31, @SF (Misch)
Last 5 GS: 1-3, 4.28 ERA, 1.50 WHIP ... Career at AT&T Park: 8 GS, 7-1, 2.52 ERA, 0.91 WHIP
Manny Parra (MIL)May 30, HOU (Backe)
Last 5 GS: 1-1, 3.71 ERA, 1.58 WHIP ... 2008 home: 5 GS, 1-0, 3.62 ERA, 1.46 WHIP
Tim Wakefield (BOS)May 28, @SEA (Bedard)
Last 5 GS: 1-3, 6.43 ERA, 1.50 WHIP ... Career at Safeco Field: 6 G, 3 GS, 0-2, 3.73 ERA, 1.60 WHIP

Tristan H. Cockcroft covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.