ESPN

It's time to talk rankings.

When it comes to fantasy baseball, we at ESPN Fantasy pride ourselves on not overreacting to any single performance, or series of performances, or even weeks of performances. Call it the "desensitization" that comes with having played fantasy baseball for many years. Or having seen lots of baseball games and players in our lives. Or just that we're jaded and fickle. When a hitter has a 14-for-25 week, we don't think "Wow, that's pretty incredible; he's a great hitter." Instead, we think, "That's a good week … now how 'bout next week?" And so we take a big-picture perspective when it comes to evaluating, and we try to pass that perspective along to you.

I've been reading the Conversation (beta!) comments on our "positional pieces" -- Hit Parade, Chris Harris' Sixty Feet, Six Inches and Eric Karabell's Relief Efforts -- the past few weeks, and I've been a little miffed at the criticism of the rankings we put in those columns. Now, picking apart rankings is a necessary part of our jobs. We all have opinions, likes and dislikes.

Don't get us wrong; we actually like that people care enough to comment on our lists, and each one is read and considered. But simply saying, "Chipper Jones is batting .450!" simply won't cut it. OK, so that's the present; we already know what each of the players we rank is doing. But what of the future? Jones is already battling a quad injury, one that our own Stephania Bell thinks will give him problems until he takes some time off to heal it. He has had a good four weeks, granted, and he does have a pretty good track record. But do we really think he'll match or even beat his career seasons? Nope.

The rankings you see to the right and a little below these words, and those you see in the starting pitching and relief pitching columns, are not a "Where are they right now?" set of rankings, but rather a "How do we expect them to do from now till the end of the season" projection. We think track record first, current numbers second, and recent performances third. We believe in stat splits, the law of averages, injury histories, etc. That's why Chipper Jones ranked "only" 37th in our rankings, why Troy Tulowitzki is still in the top 45 (Rough month? See April 2007) and why Curtis Granderson was still firmly on the list despite not having played a regular-season game until last week.

As always, we'd love to hear your comments. In fact, I'd even solicit them for the Hit Parade. You think a player is ranked too high or low in my Top 50? Lemme know. But you can do a little better than the "dude is hitting .360 this week" or "He's on fire!" reasoning. Tell me a stat split or key point I might not have considered. I'm all ears, er, eyes.

Frank Thomas, DH, A's: As we near May, Thomas has three homers, 19 RBIs and two teams on his résumé. After the whole Toronto debacle, I say Thomas finishes with 30 homers and 100 RBIs, not unlike the last time he played for the A's. You see, Thomas can get a bit complacent (which, really, is obvious considering the way he has "let himself go" over the years), and he was run out of town in Chicago after some downright bad numbers for two years. A rift between Big Frank and GM Kenny Williams was made public, and Frank was determined to show the world he still had it. He did, clouting 39 homers and collecting 114 RBIs. I see a similar burst in store.

Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Reds: It's a typical maturation of a hitter, specifically an aggressive one who can hit any fastball but struggles with the breaking stuff. Right around age 25, he either learns to lay off or fight off the junk. That means either he does and becomes more like Miguel Tejada and Sammy Sosa, or he doesn't and becomes Mark Quinn or Tony Batista. Encarnacion definitely is looking to be in the former category. Last year, his BB/K ratio was 39/86; this year it's 13/13. He's on pace for 81 walks, and this is from a guy who usually starts slowly. It's looking like a breakout season for Double-E.

Justin Upton, OF, Diamondbacks: Same name, different time zone. Just like brother B.J., young Justin Upton is a free swinger who strikes out every four or five at-bats … and still manages to hit over .300. How? I don't know, and I can't see that trend continuing. His hit rate is high right now, especially for a guy who has hit a lot of fly balls. Even though he figures to improve both those characteristics, now would be a good time to trade him in single-year leagues if an owner considers him to be as good right now as his scouting report says he eventually will be.

Austin Kearns, OF, Nationals: I just about did it. My finger was raised, preparing to click on the mouse and release Kearns in a deep mixed league. But I couldn't do it, and I'm glad I didn't. Kearns has been woeful this season, but I happened to notice he had just seven RBIs last April and hit .225 last May. He hit 35 points better after the All-Star break to return to respectability. I'm seeing a similar pattern here, and I think he'll eventually hit more homers in the new ballpark. I'm hanging on awhile longer.

Willy Taveras, OF, Rockies: It appears Taveras was benched last week; he sat two games entirely and entered a third as a pinch hitter. And when approached about it, manager Clint Hurdle talked up Ryan Spilborghs and Scott Podsednik as if he had full intention of keeping things as is. Taveras owners hear the sirens and are beginning to panic. Don't. Taveras is by far the superior fielder, the best runner and the future of the team in center field. Besides, even if he sits a few more starts this season, that won't keep him from stealing 30 bases, which is why you have him in the first place.

Geoff Jenkins, OF, Phillies: Insert "Death March" here. Jenkins is scuffling along and showing no power, Jayson Werth is tearing it up, and Shane Victorino is due back Tuesday. Mixed-league owners, it's time to cut bait, if you haven't already.

Mixed leagues: Jeff Mathis, C, Angels: I still remember the good ol' days, when Mathis was the future of the Angels at catcher. Well, he's still only 25, and he started four of five games during one stretch last week. And he's hitting .325. Note this is for two-catcher leagues only.

AL-only: Brian Anderson, OF, White Sox: He's no longer a prospect, but he started three straight games last week and deserves to be on the back end of an AL-only outfield.

NL-only: Jerry Hairston Jr., OF, Reds: Hardly glamorous, but he is getting regular playing time with Cincy (Dusty Baker does love his veterans) and is batting .364.

Daric Barton, 1B, A's: Fantasy fallacy: Walks don't mean anything in 5x5 leagues. Wrong-o! Sure, it's not incorporated directly into any one stat, but high-walk players who hit in the top third of a lineup are in line to get a boost in the often-overlooked runs category. Witness rookie Daric Barton, a Billy Beane-like player if there were ever was one; the kid has 19 walks, which is tied for 11th in the majors. Because he walks that much and hits second or third much of the time, he is tied for 28th in the majors in runs, along with such players as Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday, despite hitting .268 this season. Fantasy owners should be sure not to undermine high-OBP guys like Barton.

Cincinnati Reds: It's no secret the Reds hit much better at their favorable home ballpark, just as it's no secret the team has been struggling offensively, at least compared with recent years. The two are related. After opening the season with six home games, four of which they won, the Reds are in the middle of a sequence in which they play 21 of 31 games on the road. Knowing that, this might be a good time to make a bid for slow starters such as Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr.

Always looking for that extra piece of fantasy insight? We've got you covered. ESPN Fantasy experts Matthew Berry and Nate Ravitz provide you with all the fantasy strategy you'll need: Listen to the Fantasy Focus Podcast

Felipe Lopez, 2B, Nationals: He has the starting job at second base and still qualifies at shortstop and even slipped in seven games in the outfield this season. Could Lopez get enough games the remainder of the season in the outfield to qualify him there in 10- or 15-game plateau leagues? On the other hand, right now it doesn't look like he'll get enough time at shortstop to qualify him there next season, unless Cristian Guzman gets hurt or is benched, which is entirely possible.

Be sure you examine the projected pitchers for the week ahead when setting your weekly lineup, specifically when it comes to your big league platoon players. For instance, I noticed Sunday that the Dodgers were in line to face lefty starting pitchers in six of their seven games this week. Wow! That doesn't make lefty hitter Andre Ethier (.130 average versus LHPs this season) look so hot.

Brendan Roberts is a contributing writer/editor for ESPN Fantasy.