Hit Parade: American League lineup breakdowns
We're halfway home.
Whether you realized it or not, each team has played about 78 games, putting the official midway point of the season sometime this weekend. The end of Week 13 (Sunday night) marks the fantasy midway point.
Whereas we tend to view the unofficial midway point of the season as the pit stop that is the Major League All-Star Game, it's actually a good two and a half weeks earlier, in June.
So what better time for the Hit Parade to examine each major league team's lineup, discuss where each one is and predict where it is headed. I'll hit the AL this week and the NL next week, ranking the teams in order of "most interesting" to least. Consider this to be a special edition of Hit Parade, short of the fanfare and old clips. We'll return to our regularly scheduled Hit Parade on July 8.
Oh, and be sure to check out this week's versions of "Sixty Feet, Six Inches" and "Relief Efforts." They'll flip-flop and take a look at the NL this week and the AL next week.
Detroit Tigers (major league runs-per-game rank: 9th): The Tigers were supposed to have a top-five offense, but with the negative press the offense has received this offense, you'd think it would be in the bottom five. Nope, 4.80 runs per game is still good. But when I look at the team statistics, I see just one regular starter (Marcus Thames) doing better than expected. The rest are having down seasons. Detroit is averaging 5.89 runs per game since June 14, a trend I see continuing. They're also 12-4 during that span, another "trend" I can see continuing.
The bottom line here is there are buy-low options galore on the Tigers, and though I'm in the minority on this, I think one of them is Gary Sheffield, who is owned in just 23.8 percent of ESPN.com standard leagues. There's no way Sheffield, who still is in great shape, drops from 25 homers and 107 runs in 2007 to a powerless, .213-average 2008, not when he now hits in a superior lineup. So he's been banged up, but his trip to the DL, which he should return from soon, should have addressed at least some of that. Sheffield still can rake and get on base, and he'll hit in the middle of an All-Star lineup. You standard leaguers need to jump all over that.
AL Hitter Rankings
The National League clearly has more "elite" players than the AL, but the Junior Circuit is loaded with top base-stealers.
| 1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees |
| 2. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers |
| 3. Josh Hamilton, Rangers |
| 4. Grady Sizemore, Indians |
| 5. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners |
| 6. B.J. Upton, Rays |
| 7. Ian Kinsler, Rangers |
| 8. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox |
| 9. Carl Crawford, Rays |
| 10. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels |
| 11. Manny Ramirez, Red Sox |
| 12. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers |
| 13. Michael Young, Rangers |
| 14. Nick Markakis, Orioles |
| 15. Alex Rios, Blue Jays |
| 16. Milton Bradley, Rangers |
| 17. Brian Roberts, Orioles |
| 18. Justin Morneau, Twins |
| 19. Carlos Guillen, Tigers |
| 20. Derek Jeter, Yankees |
| 21. Joe Mauer, Twins |
| 22. Jermaine Dye, White Sox |
| 23. Carlos Quentin, White Sox |
| 24. Vernon Wells |
| 25. David Ortiz, Red Sox |
| 26. Curtis Granderson, Tigers |
| 27. Bobby Abreu, Yankees |
| 28. Torii Hunter, Angels |
| 29. Robinson Cano, Yankees |
| 30. J.D. Drew, Red Sox |
| 31. Johnny Damon, Yankees |
| 32. Carlos Gomez, Twins |
| 33. Chone Figgins, Angels |
| 34. Mike Lowell, Red Sox |
| 35. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox |
| 36. Carlos Pena, Rays |
| 37. Delmon Young, Twins |
| 38. Evan Longoria, Rays |
| 39. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox |
| 40. Paul Konerko, White Sox |
| 41. Jose Guillen, Royals |
| 42. Aubrey Huff, Orioles |
| 43. Alex Gordon, Royals |
| 44. Edgar Renteria, Tigers |
| 45. Howie Kendrick, Angels |
| 46. Adrian Beltre, Mariners |
| 47. Placido Polanco, Tigers |
| 48. Jim Thome, White Sox |
| 49. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox |
| 50. Raul Ibanez, Mariners |
Texas Rangers (RPG rank: 1st): Who'd have guessed the Rangers would be tops in the majors in runs per game, and they're doing it despite Michael Young (.278 average), not because of him? I mean, they have a favorable ballpark, but this could not have been foreseen. It also won't continue. Milton Bradley is playing everyday and hitting .332; he's a career .278 hitter. Ramon Vazquez, a career .259 hitter (and .230 for these same Rangers last season) is hitting .333 and is starting for some shallow mixed leaguers at third base. Gerald Laird is tearing it up, hitting .306, but he also had a .214 average after the All-Star break last season. David Murphy has overachieved and is already in a free fall.
I say the team doesn't finish in the top six in RPG for the season, leaving a lot of sell-high guys to pluck or deal here. Unfortunately, I'd consider Josh Hamilton, who left Tuesday's game because of knee inflammation, among them since his RBI chances will decrease as the season wears on.
Tampa Bay Rays (RPG rank: 18th): Eighteenth? Hey, I love this Rays lineup, and there's not much you can say to persuade me otherwise. B.J. Upton's power is returning, Carlos Pena will come back late next week and have a strong final three months, Carl Crawford will have another brilliant, 2007-like second half, Cliff Floyd and Eric Hinske will continue to mash righties and Jonny Gomes, well, at least he'll up his homer pace a bit. Like the Tigers, the Rays have only one player (and arguably two, if you count Hinske) in Dioner Navarro performing above expectations. Talent wins in the end, and the Rays will finish strong.
Minnesota Twins (RPG rank: 8th): "The Twins believe [Delmon] Young's presence in the fifth spot will trigger a chain reaction that will help catcher Joe Mauer and first baseman Justin Morneau return to their level of 2006 ..." That was from ESPN.com's Twins season preview, and you'd have to say, though Young has underperformed, it has worked. Mauer is back hitting above .330, and Morneau is on pace for 23 homers and 124 RBIs.
To think this is a top-10 unit despite its lack of serious punch is appalling. It also means the performance and ranking are unlikely to continue. Consider that the Twinkies are just 21st in the majors in team OPS, meaning they're just getting timely hits right now. And boy, are they: As a team, they're batting a major league-high .314 with runners in scoring position; the next highest is the White Sox at .285. Timely hitting is not one of those statistics fantasy owners can depend on to continue, and it could be a rough fall for this light-hitting unit.
New York Yankees (RPG rank: 11th): A .279 average. That's Derek Jeter's mark. How about .227? That's Robinson Cano. Jeter is a career .316 hitter who is close enough to his prime to stay close to that mark. Cano is a renowned second-half hitter who hit .342 and .306, respectively, the past two seasons. Toss in the fact that Alex Rodriguez missed 20 games because of a quad strain and Jorge Posada has played in just 32 of 77 games and you see a team that is primed for a breakout. And when Jeter and Cano warm up, the run production of Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Bobby Abreu will jump right along with them. I guess what I'm saying is you owners should still be scared when you see "@NYY" as your pitcher's next scheduled start.
Cleveland Indians (RPG rank: 17th): I heard an owner utter something like, "When I get Travis Hafner back, I should be fine." Well, guess what? There are a couple of things wrong with that sentence. First, the Indians still have no timetable for Hafner's return from a shoulder injury; they even told the Akron Beacon Journal he'll be reevaluated every seven to 10 days, and he could have "several" seven to 10-day periods. And even when he does return, is he even assured of hitting better than your average utility player in a standard mixed league? I wouldn't bet on it.
The loss of Hafner's production has put a big hit on the RBI and run output, and the loss of Victor Martinez (elbow) until August will further drain the team's run potential. Grady Sizemore, who quietly is on pace for 37 homers and 39 steals, should maintain his value, but that's about it. This used to be a lineup to fear as recently as two years ago, but I don't fear it anymore, even in games at Cleveland.
Boston Red Sox (RPG rank: 5th): Fifth? Yeah, that sounds about right, although I think they'll actually bump up slightly in the second half. Just think about what the return of a healthy David Ortiz will do for that lineup. It'll put more runners on base and get more runs home. Ortiz might not be himself when he returns, but the entire offense still figures to make strides when Ortiz returns, which should happen shortly after the All-Star break.
Los Angeles Angels (RPG rank: 22nd): Lemme get this straight. So the Angels, who finished sixth in runs per game in 2007, added Torii Hunter and finally get Casey Kotchman hitting to his potential and drop to 22nd in the league? That doesn't make sense, and it can be linked to the extended absences of Chone Figgins and Howie Kendrick. But both these guys are back now, helping the production of Hunter, Vladimir Guerrero, Gary Matthews Jr. and Garret Anderson. When everybody is healthy, this is an offense to be reckoned with, and I could see another top-10 effort from here on out.
Baltimore Orioles (RPG rank: 19th): Going into the season, I looked at the O's lineup and saw a sorry offense. Even 19th is better than I expected, and it could be a lot higher since the team is a surprising 12th in OPS. The problem is, as far as mixed leaguers are concerned, this is really just a three-man team in Brian Roberts, Aubrey Huff and Nick Markakis, who has picked up his play in June. Luke Scott struggles so much against lefties that he's just a matchups option, Adam Jones isn't running or hitting homers, and while Kevin Millar and Melvin Mora have their moments, they are hitting .245 and .240, respectively.
Huff is an interesting option. He was subpar, at best, the three seasons prior to this one, but before that he was a proven .290-25-100 hitter. He also was known as a second-half hitter, which makes his 14 homers to this point easy to project to 30. I don't see him hitting 30 homers, but I do see 26-28 homers from him, which is easily mixed league-worthy. It seems he's old and on the decline, but Huff is just 31, far from the age when a decline can be expected. He still has something left.
Chicago White Sox (RPG rank: 7th): To think that Ozzie Guillen vented about his poor offense, and they're still a top-10 unit and weren't much lower before a recent hot streak following Guillen's rant. But ultimately, Guillen was right. The team, specifically three players -- Paul Konerko, Jim Thome and Nick Swisher -- wasn't performing like it was capable of. Thome at least is still hitting homers and getting on base, Swisher has already picked it up, and Konerko should return in early July to begin his usual second-half surge. Some of the team's complementary players (Joe Crede, Carlos Quentin, Alexei Ramirez) figure to slide back to earth, but this will be an offense to be reckoned with in the second half.
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Toronto Blue Jays (RPG rank: 27th): As ESPN Fantasy's Pete Becker noted to me Tuesday, Matt Stairs is leading the Jays with eight homers. As you'll see below, five different Royals hitters have that many. But here's the question he had for me, and I pass it along to you: Are you buying low on Blue Jays hitters right now? Absolutely, I am on two guys -- Vernon Wells and Alex Rios. New manager Cito Gaston is known for getting his hitters to be more aggressive, which should help, but I still have to ask myself: How did this lineup get so old and/or boring all of a sudden? They are loaded with mediocre or below-average hitters (David Eckstein, Scott Rolen, Lyle Overbay), and I can't see anybody but Wells or Rios that I'd even want to own in a mixed league. It doesn't help that only one player (Rios with 15) has more than five steals. No homers, no steals, no thanks.
Seattle Mariners (RPG rank: 28th): Ugh. Before busting out Tuesday, the M's were averaging under 4 runs per game -- only the Padres and Nationals were more anemic offensively. In fact, the M's have been held to four runs in less in 52 of their 77 games, including 25 games (nearly a third of them) in which they've been held to two runs or fewer. Ichiro Suzuki is not the problem. He is hitting .288, un-Ichiro-like, but he's also on pace for a career-high 69 steals and 114 runs, the most he has had since 2001. The problem is also not Raul Ibanez, who still is driving in a decent number of runs, or Jose Lopez, who is hitting a respectable .296. Adrian Beltre is hitting just .241, but he still is on pace for 30 homers and should pick it up in the second half. It's all the side guys, the Richie Sexsons, the Jose Vidros, the Kenji Johjimas who have caused this low run output. But those are also the guys who will be part of the next shakeup, after the Mariners brought in new manager Jim Riggleman and elevated Lee Pelekoudas to the GM role. The M's will pick it up, even if it's from youngsters such as Jeff Clement, and their still-solid core will get more help.
Oakland A's (RPG rank: 16th): It's Billy Beane ball at its finest. The A's began play Tuesday seventh in the majors in walks and just 24th in batting average. It all equals to a mid-range runs per game ranking. But here's the problem: Runs aren't exactly a focus for Roto owners. RBIs sometimes are, and the team drops to 18th there. Home runs are, and the team is 26th. Stolen bases are, and the team is tied for 20th. The A's are even 27th in slugging percentage, which indicates they're not collectively driving the ball. Frank Thomas' return will help, and I think Eric Chavez still has something left. But just as the case has been, really since Jason Giambi, Jermaine Dye, Johnny Damon and Co. left, the A's are not a team to target for fantasy owners. In fact, I'd even go so far as to say you can safely start matchups-type pitchers if that hurler has a good BB/9 rate.
Kansas City Royals (RPG rank: 26th): Now here is one of the few teams in which I can look at the "on pace" numbers for all their hitters and see them coming close to them. It's uncanny, in fact. David DeJesus is hitting .308 with a hint of power, Jose Guillen is up to .293 now and Alex Gordon has been so-so. The Royals do have five players with eight-plus homers, which is impressive, but there are too many other things not to like from anybody not named Guillen. Will the team bring back Billy Butler? Yes, and soon. But I don't see a remarkable second-half turnaround coming, despite the fact that he's hitting .351 in Triple-A.
Brendan Roberts is a contributing writer/editor for ESPN Fantasy.

