August 6, 2008, 1:36 PM

Hit Parade: Bucking the ballpark beliefs

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Roberts By Brendan Roberts
ESPN.com
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Rogers Centre in Toronto is a great place for homers. AT&T Park in San Francisco is not a great place for homers. Great American Ball Park is a great place to score runs, while Turner Field is not.

If somebody said those statements to you, you'd probably puff your bottom lip over your top lip, furl your brow and nod. Pretty basic stuff, and it's all true, right?

Nope, not this season.

ESPN has a handy little stats page called Park Factors. It uses an index to compare the rate of stats at home versus the rate of stats on the road. To be more specific, say teams (both the Reds and visiting teams) are averaging 2.0 home runs per game at Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park and 1.5 home runs per game the Reds play on the road, then the ballpark factor would 1.33 (2.0 divided by 1.5) and clearly favors the hitter. (A factor of 1.0 would be considered neutral.)

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This is basically how ballpark effects and judgments are made, and it's remarkable how consistent they can be from season to season. For instance, of the top nine teams in home-run factor in 2007, only one team (the Jays, as alluded above) was not in the top 13 in home-run factor again this season heading into Monday's games. Runs, average and hits factors all can trend one way or another, but they still tend to be consistent, as long as there's a good sample size (and with teams averaging 113 games played, I'd say we're good).

But sometimes these factors change, and who knows why? It could be the wind pattern, weather changes, the density of the air, a new seating arrangement changing the effect a ball takes off the bat, a certain group of hitters who happen to hit much better at home … not that I can explain those factors.

I just report the results, and there are a good number of observations to report. Here's a few of the highlights, and whether I'm believin' in 'em:

Better than advertised

Camden Yards, Baltimore: I love to see trends, even if they're not always explainable. Well, check out this one: In 2005, Camden ranked 14th in homer factor, in 2006 it ranked eighth, in 2007 it ranked third … and this year? First, baby, and second place (U.S. Cellular) is not even close. Verdict: It's time to consider Camden similar to Great American Ball Park in that it's borderline neutral in runs per game but is a homer paradise.

Comerica Park
Scott Boehm/Getty ImagesComerica Park has become a lot more hitter-friendly in recent years because of ballpark modifications.
Comerica Park, Detroit: I never thought I'd see the day Comerica ranked in the top five in homer factor, as it does now. And it ranked ninth in homers in 2007, so it's not like this is a complete fluke. The Tigers have hit better there, but so have opposing teams, and the park ranks seventh in runs per game. Verdict: For years, Comerica was considered a pitchers' park. It's time to put that belief to rest, and it might even be tickling hitters' park status.

AT&T Park, San Francisco: Long considered a pitchers' park, AT&T has consistently ranked in the bottom half in runs and homers in recent seasons. Things have changed this season. Not only is it ninth in run factor, but it's 10th in homers, and they're being hit to all fields, not just right or left. Then again, a majority of those homers are being allowed by Giants pitchers. Verdict: I'm not buyin' it. It's no longer a black hole for hitters, but I'd still slant it toward favoring the pitchers.

Minute Maid Park, Houston: Would you believe the park also known as the Juice Box ranked 14th in homer factor and 25th in runs factor last season? Yup, and both numbers continued a three-year downward trend, so it looked for real. I'm pleased to see it return to fourth in homers and eighth in runs this season. Even better news: It's not just Astros hitting better there; opposing teams are as well. Verdict: I believe. The Juice Box doesn't have the same octane as its early years, but I consider it a hitters' park once again.

Turner Field, Atlanta: The days of the "Launching Pad" at the departed Fulton County Stadium are long gone; Turner ranked in the bottom third in runs per game each of the past three seasons. This year it's in the top five, although homers are neutral at best. Verdict: The Braves' home/road splits have been inexplicably volatile from season to season for the past several years. I'm not about to believe Turner is a good place to hit.

Nationals Ballpark, Washington: It's a new park, so old splits must be thrown out, but it's still comforting for owners of Nats hitters to see that the new park ranks firmly in neutral status, after years in which RFK Stadium ranked among the worst hitters' parks in the majors.

Worse than advertised

Rogers Centre, Toronto: Well, the former SkyDome ranked fifth, fourth and sixth, respectively, in home-run factor the past three seasons and now sits at No. 21 this season. As in, there have been more homers in Jays games away from Rogers Centre than in it. And runs-per-game trends downward as well, except that dates back to 2007, when it dropped to near pitchers' park status. Verdict: Roger's Centre is not the hitters' paradise it once was, but the primary reason for this is that Jays' pitchers have been so dominant (including a 3.16 ERA) at home this season and have limited homers. Not much else to take from that.

Citizens Bank Park
Joe Robbins/Getty ImagesCitizens Bank Park may have cozy dimensions, but it's not the launching pad some believe it to be.
Citizens Bank Park, Philly: The Bank has been neutral for homers this season. After hitting 19 more homers at home than on the road last season, the Phillies' home/road homer splits are close to equal this season. The primary reason for that is Pat Burrell, who inexplicably has hit 18 of his 27 homers on the road. Definitely a big factor, although there are no hometown homer heroes like there were the past few seasons. Verdict: One of our homer faves just might be slipping.

Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles: For years people have been calling Dodger Stadium a pitchers' haven, and for years they've been wrong in reference to home runs. Runs have been tough to score there, but the ball will fly out of the park, as evidenced by its home-run factor rankings (12th, 7th and 13th) the past three seasons. This season Chavez Ravine is dead-last in home-run factor, with 71 home runs hit there versus 88 in Dodgers' road games. But that's deceiving. The Dodgers have hit more homers at home than on the road, but the pitching staff has allowed just 31 homers at home, versus 50 on the road. Verdict: I still consider it neutral for homers despite what our factor says.

Great American, Cincinnati: Two years ago, GABP was first in runs factor after finishing third the previous season. Then it slipped to 7th last season. … Now it's 20th. The difference isn't so much that the Reds haven't hit as well there, but that Reds pitching has been better there. Lemme rephrase that: Just about every pitcher but Edinson Volquez has just been awful on the road. That says it all. Verdict: I'm unfazed. Great American is still a favorable park in my eyes.

Fortunes Rising

Fernando Tatis, 3B/OF, Mets: Honestly, I didn't have him in the "Rising" section because I've been waiting for him to fall apart. It hasn't happened. In fact, he's hitting .368 since the All-Star break. But I still believe it's going to happen. Not necessarily a "fall apart," but a major cooldown. Guys just don't appear out of nowhere at age 33 and maintain runs like this. I mean, he's a career .268 hitter and he's still averaging a K per four at-bats. It's just that the balls are falling in right now. The run should end soon. Then again, you plucked him off the free-agent wire with low expectations, so what do you care?

Hitter Rankings

Prince Fielder is finally hitting like he's capable of (and I'm not talking about his fight with Manny Parra the other night).

1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees (1)
2. Ryan Braun, Brewers (3)
3. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins (2)
4. Chase Utley, Phillies (4)
5. Albert Pujols, Cardinals (6)
6. Matt Holliday, Rockies (8)
7. Josh Hamilton, Rangers (9)
8. David Wright, Mets (5)
9. Jose Reyes, Mets (7)
10. Lance Berkman, Astros (10)
11. Grady Sizemore, Indians (11)
12. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs (19)
13. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (12)
14. Brandon Phillips, Reds (15)
15. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies (17)
16. Ian Kinsler, Rangers (13)
17. Prince Fielder, Brewers (22)
18. Mark Teixeira, Braves (21)
19. Jason Bay, Pirates (30)
20. Carlos Lee, Astros (20)
21. Ryan Howard, Phillies (14)
22. Nate McLouth, Pirates (25)
23. Justin Morneau, Twins (28)
24. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers (26)
25. David Ortiz, Red Sox (16)
26. Carlos Quentin, White Sox (35)
27. Carl Crawford, Rays (31)
28. Carlos Beltran, Mets (18)
29. Nick Markakis, Orioles (33)
30. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners (27)
31. Corey Hart, Brewers (38)
32. Manny Ramirez, Red Sox (39)
33. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels (29)
34. Jermaine Dye, White Sox (40)
35. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs (23)
36. Garrett Atkins, Rockies (32)
37. B.J. Upton, Rays (24)
38. Alex Rios, Blue Jays (43)
39. Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals (45)
40. Xavier Nady, Yankees (NR)
41. Dan Uggla, Marlins (42)
42. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox (37)
43. Derrek Lee, Cubs (34)
44. Matt Kemp, Dodgers (49)
45. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox (50)
46. Chipper Jones, Braves (36)
47. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres (41)
48. Pat Burrell, Phillies (47)
49. Adam Dunn, Reds (50)
50. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox (NR)
Xavier Nady, OF, Yankees: Why do people still not believe this guy is a stud outfielder? Just think of the detriments we considered him having in the past, and realize that they're all gone. His health was an issue, but they were freakish injuries in the past. But he's perfectly healthy now. Bad lineup in Pittsburgh? Um, not anymore. Bad home ballpark in PNC? Um, not anymore. At some point, you have to throw out past arguments if a situation has changed dramatically. As you can see in his debut in the rankings to the right, I've done that.

Fortunes Falling

David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox: So he felt a click in his wrist while batting Monday. By all accounts, neither the Sox nor Big Papi thought it was serious. It could be anything. Heck, I hear plenty of clicks when my dad walks up the stairs. Sure enough, Ortiz was back in the lineup Tuesday. But I still have concerns about him, not because of this latest episode, but because of the combination of episodes since late in his recovery process. First, he admitted that the wrist might be the same the rest of the season. Then Terry Francona says he'll be cautious with him and perhaps sit him a few more games than usual. Then Manny Ramirez, his primary lineup protection, is dealt, and now this. I just don't see Ortiz performing like the elite player we've come to expect over these next few months.

Paul Konerko, 1B, White Sox: What to do, what to do? All the talk was that Konerko was the odd man out in the Ken Griffey Jr. deal, but I just don't see it. I don't think White Sox GM Kenny Williams brought in Griffey to sit Konerko down; it just seems too counterintuitive and an overreaction to Konerko's extended slump. Are you telling me Griffey deserves to play everyday? Or Jim Thome? Or Nick Swisher? Look, manager Ozzie Guillen will have to be creative with his lineups, but Konerko ain't sitting more than a game, or sometimes two, a week. Even then he'll probably pinch hit, so you're talking maybe 19-22 plate appearances a week instead of 25. That's no big deal. Hang on to him in mixed leagues.

Pickups of the Week

Mixed: Emilio Bonifacio, 2B/OF, Nationals. We have just begun to see what this kid can do. Sure, he can run and he'll be playing everyday and hitting leadoff. But the kid (he's 23) was hitting .361 in the minors this season. And he's versatile.

AL-only: Wladimir Balentien, OF, Mariners. I'm still not a fan, but he does have talent and will play regularly with Jose Vidro gone.

NL-only: Dan Murphy, 3B/OF, Mets. He has a nice all-around game (.308 average with 13 homers and 14 steals in Double-A), and it sounds like he'll get a few starts per week.

Splits Watch

Dustin Pedroia extended his road hitting streak to 26 games with a 1-for-5 on Tuesday, but what's most interesting here is that he hasn't been a road warrior like this in his career. In 2006, he hit .182 on the road, and last year he hit a whopping 69 points better at home than on the road.

5x5 Watch: RBIs

Who says batting average with runners in scoring position is an overrated stat? Edwin Encarnacion is batting just .197 with runners on base and just .205 with runners in scoring position. That has left him on pace for a fine 29 homers but just 64 RBIs. How few RBIs is that? Well, since 1965, only two players have had as many homers and as few RBIs (Rob Deer in 1992 and Mark McGwire in 2001).

Tip of the Week

Need to make up ground in steals? Instead of targeting runners, target catchers. Try picking up and rotating in fringe-option runners who have series against weak catchers. After the week is over, you can just drop him and move to the next guy. Tristan Cockcroft previews favorable matchups for runners in each week's Fantasy Forecaster. One of the fringe guys he highlighted for this week, Clint Barmes, went right out and stole his sixth base of the season Monday against the Nationals. See, it works!

Brendan Roberts is a contributing writer/editor for ESPN Fantasy.