Hit Parade: Top 50 hitter keepers
This is it, the final Hit Parade of 2008. I hope that applause was for my effort and not because this is the last one.
Yup, the 2008 season is only 11 game days from being over, and by now there's not much a fantasy owner can do but play out the string. But thoughts of 2009 enter the picture; heck, some of you have been thinking about 2009 since August.
2009 Hitter Rankings
It'd be tough to bypass A-Rod, but I believe Hanley Ramirez will be the consensus first pick overall in 2009. (2009 age in parentheses.)
| 1. Hanley Ramirez, SS (25) |
| 2. Alex Rodriguez, 3B (33) |
| 3. Albert Pujols, 1B (29) |
| 4. Chase Utley, 2B (30) |
| 5. David Wright, 3B (26) |
| 6. Ryan Braun, 3B (25) |
| 7. Jose Reyes, SS (25) |
| 8. Grady Sizemore, OF (26) |
| 9. Miguel Cabrera, 1B (25) |
| 10. Matt Holliday, OF (29) |
| 11. Josh Hamilton, OF (27) |
| 12. Ryan Howard, 1B (29) |
| 13. Evan Longoria, 3B (23) |
| 14. Ian Kinsler, 2B (26) |
| 15. Alfonso Soriano, OF (33) |
| 16. Mark Teixeira, 1B (28) |
| 17. Carl Crawford, OF (27) |
| 18. Lance Berkman, 1B (33) |
| 19. Prince Fielder, 1B (24) |
| 20. Carlos Lee, OF (32) |
| 21. Brandon Phillips, 2B (27) |
| 22. B.J. Upton, OF (24) |
| 23. Matt Kemp, OF (24) |
| 24. Dustin Pedroia, 2B (25) |
| 25. Jimmy Rollins, SS (30) |
| 26. Jason Bay, OF (30) |
| 27. Carlos Quentin, OF (26) |
| 28. Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B (30) |
| 29. Justin Morneau, 1B (27) |
| 30. Ichiro Suzuki, OF (35) |
| 31. Corey Hart, OF (27) |
| 32. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF (25) |
| 33. Manny Ramirez, OF (36) |
| 34. Nate McLouth, OF (27) |
| 35. Nick Markakis, OF (25) |
| 36. Carlos Beltran, OF (31) |
| 37. Ryan Ludwick, OF (30) |
| 38. David Ortiz, DH (33) |
| 39. Magglio Ordonez, OF (35) |
| 40. Vladimir Guerrero, OF (33) |
| 41. Brian Roberts, 2B (31) |
| 42. Alex Rios, OF (28) |
| 43. Chipper Jones, 3B (36) |
| 44. Hunter Pence, OF (25) |
| 45. Geovany Soto, C (26) |
| 46. Xavier Nady, OF (30) |
| 47. Aubrey Huff, 3B/1B (32) |
| 48. Derrek Lee, 1B (33) |
| 49. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B (26) |
| 50. Jermaine Dye, OF (35) |
Oh, and a quick note before I begin. For those of you who don't already realize this after a full season of checking my rankings, I'm a conservative/"spreadsheet" ranker, as least when it comes to hitters (pitchers are a different story). Sure, I take talent, age, situations, strong finishes, etc. into play for hitters, but I still believe the guys most likely to hit, say, 30 homers next season are the ones who already did it this season. So the rankings don't change as much as you'd think. Just a few tweaks here and there to account for a few of the factors listed above. Enjoy.
25 stat predictions for 2009 (among the top 50 keepers)
- Hanley Ramirez steals fewer than 30 bases (but he hits more homers to compensate).
- No injury worries: A-Rod plays in 161 games.
- Pujols plays in only 146 games, but there is little talk/concern about his right elbow.
- David Wright just misses 40 homers (he hits 39), but he steals only 10 bases.
- Ryan Braun's back problems resurface and he needs a day off here and there. He still plays in 146 games, but the back problems contribute to him having a bad August.
- Jose Reyes doesn't even sniff 70-plus steals
in any season for the rest of his career.
- Miguel Cabrera takes a .352 average into August before slipping to .332.
- Josh Hamilton plays in just 142 games but is able to remain productive.
- Ryan Howard hits a respectable .281.
- His batting average remains below .300, but Evan Longoria finishes with 34 homers.
- Alfonso Soriano remains healthy and hits 35 homers and steals 22 bases.
- No 40-homer season for Mark Teixeira, but he hits a career-high .313.
- Carl Crawford comes back with a vengeance and nearly copies his 2007 season, finishing at .306-12-84, with 47 steals.
- Prince Fielder edges Ryan Howard for the NL homer title, finishing with 47 clouts. But he hits just .266.
- B.J. Upton's power returns (somewhat); he hits 17 homers.
- Matt Kemp's power numbers jump, just as his steals dip. He hits 30 homers (actually 31), but falls short of 30-30 by stealing 27 bases.
- Oh no! Jason Bay's knee acts up again, and he ends up on the DL. He still plays 140-plus games, but the injury affects him in September.
- Carlos Quentin picks up where he left off and hits 38 homers. He mistakenly punches his bat several times without thinking, and manager Ozzie Guillen calls him out in the press for it.
- Ichiro Suzuki shows he still has something left by hitting .342.
- Manny Ramirez puts up good numbers, but not for the Dodgers or Red Sox. You know what team I predict? Yankees.
- Nick Markakis hits a career-high 28 homers, and it doesn't come at the expense of his batting average.
- David Ortiz's batting average improves and he plays in 145-plus games, but he hits just 23 homers.
- Vladimir Guerrero's knee finally lands him on the disabled list and he plays in just 132 (albeit productive) games.
- Aubrey Huff falls further than he should on draft day, and he ends up with almost identical numbers to 2008.
- Derrek Lee gets his average back to .319, but he doesn't regain his power stroke (18 homers) and steals just three bases.
And 25 predictions for players not among the top 50 keepers
- Gary Sheffield inexplicably hits 27 homers.
- Colby Rasmus does not emerge as a fantasy factor. He gets a midseason call-up, hits just .274 (with a good OBP) and finishes with only 10 homers. In future years, he peaks at Brian Giles-like numbers, and that's all.
- The years of Michael Young hitting .300 appear to be gone as he finishes at .286.
- Ryan Zimmerman finally gets the power stroke going, and he hits 29 homers.
- Victor Martinez plays a ton at first base and returns to his hitting ways, batting .303 with 20 homers and 104 RBIs. He helps those owners who picked him in the middle rounds win leagues.
- Instead of increasing, Adam Jones' batting average falls to .252. He looks more like Mike Cameron -- with less speed and power.
- Kazuo Matsui actually stays semi-healthy and steals 34 bases.
- Ian Stewart has a breakout season across the board and becomes an early-round fantasy pick.
- Kosuke Fukudome gets stuck in platoon status, then slips on a rainy June day and jams his foot up against the outfield wall at Wrigley. He misses six weeks.
- Matt Wieters starts for the O's on Opening Day and hits .300 on the nose, and also hits 19 homers. Taylor Teagarden doesn't approach .300 in batting average, but he out-homers Wieters by hitting 22 jacks.
- A name resurfaces that we otherwise forgot about: Aaron Hill.
- Daric Barton bounces back and bats .294, but he still finishes with single-digit homers.
- Jayson Werth gets off to another great start before running into an outfield fence Aaron Rowand-style and injuring his wrist. He is placed on the DL and isn't the same when he returns.
- Delmon Young hits 30 homers.
- Joey Votto hits 32 homers.
- Jay Bruce hits only 21.
- Lastings Milledge quietly steals 38 bases.
- Jim Thome strains a ribcage muscle and misses time. He returns, only to strain it again. ESPN broadcasters start to put his career in perspective, as if 2009 will be his last season. (But it won't be.)
- Howie Kendrick wins the batting title with a .344 mark.
- Mark DeRosa continues to be the most underrated fantasy option in baseball.
- Kelly Johnson hits lefties well and finishes with better than a .300 average.
- J.D. Drew plays in just 109 games because of assorted injuries.
- Rocco Baldelli actually stays semi-healthy out of a part-time outfield/part-time DH role. He finishes with 128 games played.
- James Loney doesn't show the power we expect, finishing with just 14 homers.
- You stay with ESPN Fantasy all offseason and spring training and end up winning three times as much money as your league fees cost.
Enjoy the offseason. See ya next year.
Note: Because of the length of the above, I've decided to shorten and cut down on my weekly categories.
Fortunes RisingStephen Drew, SS, Diamondbacks: Drew was the cat's meow in 2007 drafts after hitting .316 in a half-season in 2006, but it turned out pitchers had his number. You know those Drew boys, though; they come up and hit right away, slump as pitchers learn to pitch them, then make adjustments and become top options. And at least this Drew boy will stay healthy (and plays shortstop). Drew is hitting .321 in the second half, and at age 26, I predict he'll play like a top-5 shortstop next season, better than such guys as Derek Jeter, Miguel Tejada, Michael Young and Troy Tulowitzki.
Brad Mangin/MLB Photos/Getty ImagesStephen Drew is batting .321 with six homers and 27 RBIs since the All-Star break.Fortunes FallingAndy LaRoche, 3B, Pirates: At some point a brotha has to start hitting, right? The younger LaRoche has accomplished everything he can at the minor league level, but he just can't get it going in the majors, and even at age 25, you have to wonder if he won't be one of those "Four-A" players who just can't make the transition to the bigs. I, for one, am ready to tag him as such. He hit .226 in limited time in 2007, and now he's at .171. It's not that he can't make contact or doesn't draw walks; it's just that he's a fly-ball hitter at a park not conducive to homers. The only way he's going to be effective is if he plays half his games at a favorable hitters' park, and I don't see that happening. I'm not paying for a breakout next season -- or any other season, for that matter.
Pickups of the WeekMixed: Alberto Callaspo, 2B/SS/3B, Royals: He once was a prospect, but finally is getting a chance to show it with the Royals. Callaspo is a legit .300 hitter with decent speed who qualifies at second base, shortstop and third base, and he's available in 93.3 percent of leagues.
AL-only: Cliff Pennington, SS, A's: Pennington is getting a good chance to make an impression in Oakland, and he's making the most of it. He doesn't have any power, but he has .290-average potential and stole 31 bases in the minors this season.
NL-only: Alfredo Amezaga, 2B/SS/3B/OF, Marlins: Hardly anything special, but he is hitting .296 in September, qualifies at four positions and should get a start or two if Hanley Ramirez's shoulder injury sidelines him.
Fun Stat Talk (courtesy of Elias Sports Bureau and ESPN Research)Hanley Ramirez belted two home runs and Aramis Ramirez added another as the Ramirezes -- Manny (34), Hanley (32), Aramis (25), Alexei (18) and Max (2) -- lifted their composite home run total for the season to 111. That's equal to the combined total of home runs by the next two highest surnames in the majors this season; the Cabreras (57) and the Gonzalezes (54) have combined for 111 homers. In addition, the Ramirezes have hit the most homers in one season by major league players with the same last name since the Gonzalezes hit 126 in 2001. The all-time record was set in 1987, a legendary season for the Davises, as Eric (37), Alvin (29), Glenn (27), Chili (24), Mike (22) and Jody (19) combined for 158 home runs!
Ballpark WatchThree ballparks which seem to have become a lot more favorable for hitters this season: 1. Comerica Park (Detroit); 2. Nationals Park (Washington); 3. Turner Field (Atlanta).
Three ballparks which seem to have become a lot more favorable for pitchers this season: 1. Metrodome (Minnesota); 2. Busch Stadium (St. Louis); 3. Rogers Centre (Toronto).
Position WatchAsdrubal Cabrera has come to life of late (.432 average in Sept.), and he's quietly doing so with occasional starts at shortstop. He has 18 games there now, which qualifies him there next year in a number of leagues, and wouldn't it be nice to see him get two more games there to hit the 20-game plateau as well? He's even more of a 2009 sleeper with SS qualification.
Tip of the WeekA savvy 'baller in one of my chats reminded me of this tip, and I thank the anonymous sender for it. In head-to-head playoffs/finals, be sure to check out your opponent's roster to see if you can find strengths and weaknesses, and then consider punting a category if it helps the overall well-being of your team. For instance, if your opponent is loaded with base stealers and you've been starting a few one-category runners, swap in somebody else. If four of his nine pitchers are closers, and you have just two, consider adding another starting pitcher. It's kinda like boxing -- instead of trying to outslug an opponent with a big right hook, instead counter with the left jab and negate the effects of his best punch.
Brendan Roberts is a contributing writer/editor for ESPN Fantasy.
