Philadelphia Phillies fantasy team preview

"Once upon a time there was a hare who, boasting how he could run faster than anyone else, was forever teasing a tortoise for its slowness. Then one day, the irate tortoise answered back: 'Who do you think you are? There's no denying you're swift, but even you can be beaten!' The hare squealed with laughter. 'Beaten in a race? By whom? Not you, surely! I bet there's nobody in the world that can win against me, I'm so speedy. Now, why don't you try?' " -- Aesop's Fables
The question is, who is the tortoise, and who is the hare in this morality tale? Wasn't it Jimmy Rollins who did all the bragging that the Phillies were the team to beat? I guess the moral of the story, at least for 2007, is that sometimes the hare actually does finish first. Though most of the media attention focused on the Mets' monumental collapse, the fact remains that the Phillies did go 16-6 down the stretch, and were equally, if not more, responsible for winning the race.
What's Changed?
Key Additions
Brad Lidge, P
Pedro Feliz, 3B
Geoff Jenkins, OF
Key Losses
Aaron Rowand, OF
Tadahito Iguchi, 2B
Michael Bourn, OF
Antonio Alfonseca, P
There's no questioning that the Phillies are an offensive force to be reckoned with. With Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and new acquisition Pedro Feliz, they've got the most potent infield in the major leagues. It would not be surprising to see this team improve on its 2007 output, as it led the National League in runs scored, on-base percentage and slugging. The big question for Philadelphia is the pitching. Certainly, having as powerful an offense as the Phillies do allows the staff a little more margin for error, but after a converted closer (Brett Myers) and injury-prone Cole Hamels at the top of the rotation, there's not a lot of depth there. And already this season, an injury to newly acquired closer Brad Lidge is putting undue stress on a fragile bullpen.
In 2008, the tortoise and the hare will have their rematch. But which role will the Phillies play this season? If it's to be the tortoise, they'd best be careful, for the Mets are not likely to fall asleep under that tree again. If it's to be the hare, then they'd better hope the pitching staff has something left in the tank for the homestretch. If so, then the story may end the same way as it did last year. If not, there's bound to be a lot of sour grapes in the Phillies' clubhouse.
The Offense
2007 Team Stats
OBP+SLG (OPS): .812 (2nd)
Runs Scored: 892 (2nd)
Home Runs: 213 (2nd)
Attempted Steals: 157 (7th)
Citizens Bank Park Factor:
Runs: 1.034 (14th) | HRs: 1.418 (1st)
| Probable Lineup | ||
| Name | ||
| Jimmy Rollins | ||
| Shane Victorino | ||
| Chase Utley | ||
| Ryan Howard | ||
| Pat Burrell | ||
| G. Jenkins/J. Werth** | ||
| Pedro Feliz | ||
| Carlos Ruiz | ||
| *Projected round a player will be drafted in an ESPN standard 10-team league. **Projected platoon | ||
Top Sleeper: So it's the fourth round of your fantasy draft, and you're ready to make your pick. You're targeting a guy who can give you 40 steals, hit around .300 and drive in about 60 runs for you. And so you select Chone Figgins. I've got no real problem with that, but can someone explain to me exactly why Shane Victorino isn't being picked for another eight to 10 rounds? He stole 37 bases last year despite being troubled by a calf strain and missing close to 30 games. He also hit 12 home runs, showcasing a good deal more power than a guy like Figgins. With Aaron Rowand gone, The Flyin' Hawaiian is now firmly entrenched as the starting center fielder and should get an extra 100 or so at-bats in 2008. I'm not saying he's fourth-round material, but he certainly isn't that far of a drop-off.
The Rotation
2007 Starters Stats
Record: 61-50 (9th)
ERA: 4.91 (23rd) | WHIP: 1.42 (18th)
Batting Average Against: .281 (22nd)
Home Runs Allowed: 141 (1st)
Team Fielding Percentage: .986 (5th)
Citizens Bank Park Factor:
Runs: 1.034 (14th) | HRs: 1.418 (1st)
| Projected Rotation | ||
| No. 1 | ||
| No. 2 | ||
| No. 3 | ||
| No. 4 | ||
| No. 5 | ||
| No. 6 | ||
| *Projected round a player will be drafted in an ESPN standard 10-team league. | ||
Schedule Preview: The Phillies have a very strange schedule in 2008. Twice they play only one series at home before venturing out on the road, and on four separate occasions they have to fly clear across the country to start a trip: to Colorado, Arizona, Oakland and Los Angeles. From June 6 to July 3, they play 18 of 24 games on the road, they return home for tough series against the Mets, Cardinals and Diamondbacks, and then head out of town again after the All-Star break for 12 of their next 15 games. Suffice it to say that if this team can find itself at or near the top of the division on Aug. 4, it should be all downhill from there. If not, it could be a very long last two months of the season.
| Stephania Bell on Brad Lidge |
|---|
![]() Lidge's knee troubles began in May 2007 while he was with the Astros. He missed time then with what was described initially as "irritation" in his right knee, then came back to pitch only briefly before going on the DL with an oblique strain. When Lidge recovered sufficiently from the oblique injury and began throwing off a mound in early July, his knee again acted up. The team discovered he had torn cartilage that would require offseason surgery. Lidge underwent surgery to repair cartilage damage on Oct. 1, and despite the fact that he was not 100 percent, the Phillies were willing to trade for him anyway. Lidge did appear to be on track in his recovery, and as recently as two weeks ago, he was saying that his knee was "ready to go." Talk around the clubhouse when I visited at the beginning of spring training was that Lidge would be available for Opening Day. Then, as quickly as you could say "MRI," Lidge injured the knee during batting practice Saturday, Feb. 23. Pitching from the stretch, he reportedly caught a spike in the mound on his push-off leg (his right, surgically repaired knee) and went under the knife Monday, Feb. 26 as a bit of a proactive measure to "clean up" the knee. Reports from the team after the surgery have all been positive. Lidge's medial meniscus was, in fact, torn, and according to Phillies head athletic trainer Scott Sheridan, the results of the surgery formed the "best-case scenario" for the Phillies. Dr. Michael Ciccotti, team orthopedic surgeon for the Phillies, indicated that he removed about 15-18 percent of the medial meniscus, and according to Sheridan, "The other side of the knee that he had repaired is fine." One would have to surmise that the lateral knee, or outer part of the joint, is the region where the first surgery to address torn cartilage took place. If it looks fine at this stage, that is reassuring to everyone in the Phillies organization. The other positive is that a minimal portion of the medial meniscus was removed. The menisci function as shock absorbers and joint cushions between the femur (thighbone) and the tibia (lower leg bone) and provide stability to the joint. It is desirable to keep as much of each meniscus as possible over time. Meniscectomies, or procedures in which a piece of torn meniscus is removed because it is interfering with the ability to function normally, are fairly common, though. The extent to which the meniscus is cut out can have a significant impact on the overall health of the knee. Since Lidge had only a small piece removed, that bodes well for the health of that side of the knee. The bigger concern would be what led to him injuring the knee in spring training? Was he still lacking some strength and muscular stability that resulted in a compensation that compromised his knee? Or was it just a random occurrence that had nothing to do with the November procedure or previous injury? |
Trainer's room: Closer Brad Lidge just underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee to repair a torn meniscus, and should miss only three to six weeks, leaving the door open for a possible return by Opening Day, or at least shortly thereafter. With last year's closer Brett Myers now in the rotation, Tom Gordon likely will take another stab at the job until Lidge can go. Certainly the news could have been a lot worse for Lidge, but barring any unforeseen setbacks, he should have no lasting effects from the injury.
Cole Hamels strained his shoulder in 2006 and his pitching elbow in 2007. Who has "hip flexor" in the pool this year? The 24-year-old Hamels is nearly unhittable when he gets that curveball over, but there's a black cloud that seems to be following him around, and you can't help but watch each start waiting for that other shoe to drop. Perhaps this lingering sense of dread factored into Charlie Manuel's decision to name Brett Myers as his Opening Day starter. You still want to draft Hamels, and you'll have to do it early to get him, but when you do, make sure you've loaded up on horseshoes, four-leaf clovers and lucky pennies.
Platoon: When Aaron Rowand left Philadelphia for San Francisco, the team didn't waste too much time sitting around wondering what to do. Within 10 days the Phillies had signed free agent Geoff Jenkins to a two-year deal. The 33-year-old hit 21 home runs with the Brewers last season, but batted an abysmal .215 against left-handed pitching. That's why we expect to see a lot of Jayson Werth in right field as well. Werth, whose career has never been able to get on track due to a left wrist that never seems to get any better, hit .375 against lefties in 2007, which makes him an ideal candidate to share time with Jenkins.
Backup to watch: Chris Coste, a real-life Crash Davis, is going to be the backup catcher to Carlos Ruiz, now that the "Great Rod Barajas Experiment" has been declared a failure. Coste, who is now a published author after writing the book "The 33-Year Old Rookie," hit .279 with five home runs after taking over Barajas' duties in July last year. If you're in a league where you need two catchers, Coste likely won't kill you if he is called upon to step in on an everyday basis. There's every possibility he might provide you with some decent power numbers, especially considering his home ballpark.
Fantasy Studs: Let me pose a hypothetical question to you. If the Phillies repeat as NL East Champions in 2008, which player stands the best chance at being named the league's MVP? Is it the defending MVP, who hit 30 home runs to go along with his 40 stolen bases? Is it the guy who hit .332 while scoring more than 100 runs and driving in 100 more, despite missing 30 games due to injury? Or is it the 2006 NL MVP, who finished second in the league with 47 home runs, despite hitting only nine home runs over the first two months of the season due to leg injuries that eventually landed him on the disabled list in May? The fact is, it could be any of the three. Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are all potential first-round fantasy options, playing in a park that is very hitter-friendly, and in a lineup where each player's success has a direct positive impact on the others' value. You really can't go wrong here, folks.
The Bullpen
2007 Relievers Stats
Record: 28-23 (12th)
Saves/Opps: 42/63 (17th)
ERA: 4.41 (24th) | WHIP: 1.50 (26th)
Batting Average Against: .266 (24th)
Strikeouts per 9 innings: 6.68 (26th)
| Projected Bullpen | |||||
| Closer | |||||
| Setup** | |||||
| Setup | |||||
| Setup | |||||
| *Projected round a player will be drafted in an ESPN standard 10-team league. | **Closer-in-waiting | ||||
Prospects to watch for the future: As we've said, there will be some open spots in the rotation in the very near future, and Carlos Carrasco and Josh Outman could be next in line to fill them. Carrasco, a right-hander, is only 20, and struggled a bit against Double-A hitters after dominating at Class A Clearwater. He has a nice fastball, but appears to need a little more seasoning before he's ready to serve. Outman is a southpaw with several pitches who had an 8.97 K/9 ratio in Class A before joining Carrasco in Reading.
Jason Jaramillo hit .271 with six home runs at Triple-A last year, and although those stats don't necessarily jump out at you, they're not too bad for a catcher with good defensive skills and a strong arm. Considering Chris Coste's age, there's certainly a chance that Jaramillo might compete for a spot on the roster in 2009.
A.J. Mass is a fantasy football, baseball and college basketball analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.


