Believe in Francisco Liriano and the Twins
Fantasy Forecaster last updated Sunday, April 12 at 9:58 p.m. ET.
On tap: It's a big week for the city of New York, as baseball's two brand-spankin'-new ballparks, the Mets' Citi Field and the Yankees' Yankee Stadium, open during Week 2 of the fantasy baseball season. Citi Field will officially open Monday and feature six games, while Yankee Stadium opens its doors Thursday for a four-game series against the Indians. As in the final weeks of these teams' previous ballparks, expect the level of intensity to be higher for the teams that call New York home.
Quick click by section, if you're seeking advice in a specific area:
Team advantages | Weather report | Load up: Hitters | Sleeper hitters
Load up: Stolen bases | Load up: Pitchers | Projected starters | Two-start rankings
The chart below lists each of the 30 MLB teams' number of games scheduled ("Gm"), home games ("Hm"), games versus right- and left-handed pitchers ("vs. RHP" and "vs. LHP") and games at either hitter- or pitcher-friendly ballparks.
* Note: Royals' totals versus right- and left-handed pitchers exclude Wednesday game against the Indians, whose opposing starter is unclear. Twins' totals versus right- and left-handed pitchers exclude Saturday game against the Angels, whose opposing starter is unclear. Pirates' totals versus right- and left-handed pitchers exclude Saturday game against the Braves, whose opposing starter is unclear. As of most recent update, potential starters for those games might be Zach Jackson (CLE, LHP), Anthony Ortega (LAA, RHP) and Jo-Jo Reyes (ATL, LHP).
| Hitters' Parks? | Pitchers' Parks? | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | Rangers Ballpark (@TEX-3) | |
 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | McAfee Coliseum (@OAK-3) | |
 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | ||
 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | ||
 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | Safeco Field (@SEA-3) | |
 | 6 | 3 | 4* | 1* | Rangers Ballpark (@TEX-3) | |
 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | Safeco Field (@SEA-3); Metrodome (@MIN-3) | |
 | 7 | 7 | 5* | 1* | Metrodome (TOR-4, LAA-3) | |
 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 2 | ||
 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | McAfee Coliseum (BOS-3) | |
 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 1 | Safeco Field (LAA-3, DET-3) | |
 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 3 | ||
 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 1 | Rangers Ballpark (BAL-3, KC-3) | |
 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | Metrodome (@MIN-4) | |
 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | ||
 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | ||
 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | Wrigley Field (COL-2, STL-4) | |
 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | ||
 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | Wrigley Field (@CHC-2) | |
 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | ||
 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | ||
 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | ||
 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | ||
 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | ||
 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | ||
 | 6 | 6 | 4* | 1* | ||
 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | Wrigley Field (@CHC-4) | |
 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | ||
 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | ||
 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
April always presents problems for baseball in the weather department, as evidenced by Opening Day postponements in Boston and Chicago (White Sox game). That brought Boston's total of first-month postponements since 2003 to nine, most for a single team in baseball, and Chicago's to 10 (Cubs and White Sox combined), tied with New York (Mets and Yankees) for most in a single city in baseball during that span. Sure enough, there are three games scheduled in Boston this week, 10 in New York (six Mets, four Yankees) and six in Chicago (all Cubs), all of which could be at risk. Games in Detroit (five postponements since 2003, three games this week), Philadelphia (five and three), Pittsburgh (six and six) and Washington (one and six) also bear watching.
Weatherproof games: Reds at Astros (3 games, Fri-Sun); Athletics at Blue Jays (3, Fri-Sun); Reds at Brewers (3, Mon-Wed); Cardinals at Diamondbacks (3, Mon-Wed); Angels at Mariners (3, Tue-Thu); Tigers at Mariners (3, Fri-Sun); White Sox at Rays (4, Thu-Sun); Yankees at Rays (3, Mon-Wed); Angels at Twins (3, Fri-Sun); Blue Jays at Twins (4, Mon-Thu).
The teams listed below have the most favorable overall hitting matchups, accounting for recent performance, strength of opponents and ballpark factors.
Braves (FLA-3, @PIT-3): Scoring 20 runs at Citizens Bank Park might not be the most accurate representation of the Braves' true offensive potential, but their upcoming matchups back up the notion that they'll continue their hot hitting for another week (and probably two, as they visit Washington and Cincinnati in Week 3). They were one of the few teams to give scheduled Tuesday opponent Chris Volstad problems last year (2 GS, 4.50 ERA, 1.67 WHIP), and they draw the back end of Florida's rotation (Anibal Sanchez and Andrew Miller) followed by matchups against Ian Snell and Zach Duke. Matt Diaz has some deep NL-only league potential with the Braves set to face three left-handed starters.
Mets (SD-3, MIL-3): Two exhibition games isn't nearly enough for us to get a read on whether Citi Field is hitter- or pitcher-friendly, but there were 19 runs scored and two home runs hit there in the Red Sox-Mets games on April 3-4, so it's not like we should have any Petro Park-like fears … yet. The Mets and their fans will be charged up for the official opening of their new stadium, and they can thank the schedule-makers for three cakewalk matchups against the Padres and the Padres themselves for lining up Walter Silva and Kevin Correia for those ballpark-opening contests. The Mets also battle Jeff Suppan (4.96) over the weekend.
Rangers (BAL-3, KC-3): The Rangers scored 29 runs in their season-opening series at home against the Indians, including nine against defending Cy Young winner Cliff Lee, and have tallied 514 runs at home since the beginning of last season, tops in baseball. Royals starters Gil Meche and Zack Greinke present Texas' stiffest matchups, but they're a combined 3-8 with a 6.42 ERA and 16 home runs allowed in 12 career games (11 starts) at Rangers Ballpark. Hank Blalock has batted a combined .436 (17-for-39) with three home runs against them, and he'll also benefit from the Rangers' facing three other right-handed starters in the week.
Red Sox (@OAK-3, BAL-3): A curious schedule indeed, as the Sox face three left-handed starters to begin the week, followed by three right-handers during the weekend. None of Oakland's southpaws seems likely to intimidate this lineup; the Red Sox led the majors in OPS against left-handers in 2008 (.849), and clobbered scheduled Tuesday opponent Dana Eveland in their only battle last Aug. 2 (2 IP, 8 H, 9 ER). Right-handers Jeremy Guthrie (set to face them Friday) and Adam Eaton (Saturday) should also inspire some high-scoring affairs.
Nelson Cruz, OF, Rangers: .353 BA, 6 HRs, 16 RBIs, 1.100 OPS in 17 home games in 2008-09; .364 BA, 2 HRs in first 3 home games of 2009
Chris Duncan, OF, Cardinals: .357 BA, 4 HRs, 1.095 OPS in 14 career games at Wrigley Field -- though the Cardinals are tentatively scheduled to face only two Cubs right-handers and four righties overall in Week 2, so this is more for daily-league owners
Mike Fontenot, 2B, Cubs: .295 BA, .853 OPS in 103 career home games, .302 BA, .858 OPS career versus right-handers
Kosuke Fukudome, OF, Cubs: .292 BA, .825 OPS in 75 career home games
Aaron Hill, 2B, Blue Jays: .303 BA, .827 OPS career versus left-handers
Jason Kubel, OF, Twins: .299 BA and .876 OPS in 68 home games last season, and .283 BA and .833 OPS versus right-handers last season
Juan Rivera, OF, Angels: .309 BA, 14 HRs, .876 OPS in 259 ABs versus left-handers from 2006-09
Favorable matchups listed below are selected based upon opponents' catchers allowing a high rate of steal attempts and/or having low caught-stealing percentages.
Twins (TOR-4, LAA-3): Denard Span had the Twins' only stolen base in their season-opening series against Seattle, but he and three other current Twins managed multiple steals during the spring (Alexi Casilla, Carlos Gomez and Brendan Harris). Nick Punto also stole 10 of his 15 bases in 2008 in home games, managing a .366 on-base percentage.
Rays (NYY-3, CHW-4): The Rays led the majors with 142 stolen bases in 2008 and 85 of those (59.9 percent) came in home games, again tops in the game. Tampa Bay tends to run wild against Jorge Posada, having swiped 20 bags in 18 meetings in 2007, and last season the team actually squeezed three successful steals out of Jonny Gomes. Like the second header says, load up!
Marlins (@ATL-3, @WAS-3): Hanley Ramirez went nuts against these foes in 2008, totaling 13 steals in 14 tries in 35 games. With weak-armed Brian McCann one of Florida's opponents in Week 2, Emilio Bonifacio should continue his red-hot performance in the category, while speedy rookie Cameron Maybin might turn in an impressive week.
Astros (@PIT-3, CIN-3): The concern here is that Ryan Doumit and the Pirates gunned Astros baserunners down on 10 of 24 attempts in 2008 (41.7 percent), but new Reds backstop Ramon Hernandez has significant trouble throwing runners out, which helps boost the matchups. Michael Bourn, held scoreless in the team's season-opening series, should bounce back, especially noting his .392 on-base percentage in 13 games against Pittsburgh in 2008.
The teams listed below have the most favorable overall pitching matchups, accounting for recent performance, strength of opponents and ballpark factors.
Blue Jays (@MIN-4, OAK-3): This is very much a pick-and-choose staff, as a favorable schedule alone doesn't guarantee names like Jesse Litsch, David Purcey or Ricky Romero belong in your shallow-mixed-league lineup. It does, however, require you to take a closer look at each pitcher, as the Twins and Athletics have each been shut out once already in their season-opening series, and both teams finished those series with a team OPS beneath .700. Purcey and Romero each had quality starts in their first turns of 2009 against Detroit, while Litsch has a 0.90 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in three career starts against the Athletics, whom he'll face Saturday.
Dodgers (SF-3, COL-3): I love this staff in home games. Take a look at the Dodgers' 2008 team pitching statistics at home: 3.01 ERA, .228 batting average allowed, .621 OPS allowed, 1.13 WHIP, 3.10:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and every one of those numbers was best in the majors. Even if you extract the departed Derek Lowe's numbers, plopping Randy Wolf into his place isn't a disastrous downgrade, especially not with the team set to face two teams that finished in the bottom third of the league in runs scored per game on the road, and that managed sub-.700 team OPS in road contests, in 2008. This is where the Dodgers begin to establish their divisional dominance, and they'll do it with strong pitching performances.
Phillies (@WAS-3, SD-3): They might have disappointed in a serious way in their season-opening series against the Braves, and didn't match up in an encouraging fashion in their following series at Coors Field, but the Phillies' staff is better than it has shown, and this week's matchups will demonstrate why. Neither the Nationals nor Padres are close to being in the class of Atlanta or Colorado offensively speaking, and the Phillies as a team had a 3.32 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 18 games against Washington and 3.23 and 1.19 in six against the Padres in 2008. Jamie Moyer in particular won both of his starts at Nationals Park (2.25 ERA) in 2008, and is 11-4 with a 2.83 ERA lifetime against the Nationals(/Expos).
Twins (TOR-4, LAA-3): There wasn't a team in baseball -- including the Padres -- with a more extreme split between home and road team pitching statistics than these Twins in 2008. They had a 3.27 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and .255 BAA at the Metrodome, compared to 5.10, 1.50 and .294 on the road. In particular, check out these home ERAs: Joe Nathan 0.66, Francisco Liriano 2.76, Nick Blackburn 2.95, Kevin Slowey 3.38. You'll notice I picked both the Blue Jays and Twins' staffs despite them facing each other -- something Baseball Challenge players need to be careful of because of the five-point wins bonus -- but that's only because I expect that to be a low-scoring series in this pitching-friendly venue.
The chart below lists each of the 30 MLB teams' schedules and projected starting pitchers. Those pitchers scheduled to pitch twice this week are color-coded.
Note: As of most recent update, Zach Jackson (LHP) seemed the Indians' most likely Wednesday starter, Anthony Ortega (RHP) the Angels' most likely Saturday starter and Jo-Jo Reyes (LHP) the Braves' most likely Saturday starter.
| @TEX Uehara (RHP) | @TEX Simon (RHP) | @TEX Hendrcksn (LHP) | @BOS Guthrie (RHP) | @BOS Eaton (RHP) | @BOS Uehara (RHP) | |
| @OAK Lester (LHP) | @OAK Matsuzaka (RHP) | @OAK Wakefield (RHP) | BAL Penny (RHP) | BAL Beckett (RHP) | BAL Lester (LHP) | |
| @DET Floyd (RHP) | @DET Danks (LHP) | @DET Contreras (RHP) | @TB Colon (RHP) | @TB Buehrle (LHP) | @TB Floyd (RHP) | @TB Danks (LHP) |
| @KC Carmona (RHP) | @KC Pavano (RHP) | @KC TBD | @NYY Lee (LHP) | @NYY Reyes (RHP) | @NYY Carmona (RHP) | @NYY Pavano (RHP) |
| CHW Miner (RHP) | CHW Porcello (RHP) | CHW Galarraga (RHP) | @SEA Verlander (RHP) | @SEA Jackson (RHP) | @SEA Miner (RHP) | |
| CLE Greinke (RHP) | CLE Davies (RHP) | CLE Ponson (RHP) | @TEX Meche (RHP) | @TEX Greinke (RHP) | @TEX Davies (RHP) | |
| @SEA Loux (RHP) | @SEA Weaver (RHP) | @SEA Saunders (LHP) | @MIN Moseley (RHP) | @MIN TBD | @MIN Loux (RHP) | |
| TOR Slowey (RHP) | TOR Perkins (LHP) | TOR Baker (RHP) | TOR Liriano (LHP) | LAA Blackburn (RHP) | LAA Slowey (RHP) | LAA Perkins (LHP) |
| @TB Wang (RHP) | @TB Burnett (RHP) | @TB Pettitte (LHP) | CLE Sabathia (LHP) | CLE Chambrlan (RHP) | CLE Wang (RHP) | CLE Burnett (RHP) |
| BOS Braden (LHP) | BOS Eveland (LHP) | BOS Anderson (LHP) | @TOR Outman (LHP) | @TOR Cahill (RHP) | @TOR Braden (LHP) | |
| LAA Silva (RHP) | LAA Washburn (LHP) | LAA Rwlnd-Smth (LHP) | DET Hernandez (RHP) | DET Bedard (LHP) | DET Silva (RHP) | |
| NYY Kazmir (LHP) | NYY Garza (RHP) | NYY Sonnanstine (RHP) | CHW Niemann (RHP) | CHW Shields (RHP) | CHW Kazmir (LHP) | CHW Garza (RHP) |
| BAL Padilla (RHP) | BAL McCarthy (RHP) | BAL Benson (RHP) | KC Harrison (LHP) | KC Millwood (RHP) | KC Padilla (RHP) | |
| @MIN Litsch (RHP) | @MIN Romero (LHP) | @MIN Richmond (RHP) | @MIN Halladay (RHP) | OAK Purcey (LHP) | OAK Litsch (RHP) | OAK Romero (LHP) |
| STL Davis (LHP) | STL Scherzer (RHP) | STL Garland (RHP) | @SF Petit (RHP) | @SF Haren (RHP) | @SF Davis (LHP) | |
| FLA Vazquez (RHP) | FLA Lowe (RHP) | FLA Kawakami (RHP) | @PIT Jurrjens (RHP) | @PIT TBD | @PIT Vazquez (RHP) | |
| COL Lilly (LHP) | COL Harden (RHP) | STL Zambrano (RHP) | STL Dempster (RHP) | STL Marshall (LHP) | STL Lilly (LHP) | |
| @MIL Volquez (RHP) | @MIL Arroyo (RHP) | @MIL Owings (RHP) | @HOU Cueto (RHP) | @HOU Harang (RHP) | @HOU Volquez (RHP) | |
| @CHC Jimenez (RHP) | @CHC Marquis (RHP) | @LAD DeLaRosa (LHP) | @LAD Cook (RHP) | @LAD Jimenez (RHP) | ||
| @ATL Volstad (RHP) | @ATL Miller (LHP) | @ATL Sanchez (RHP) | @WAS Nolasco (RHP) | @WAS Johnson (RHP) | @WAS Volstad (RHP) | |
| @PIT Moehler (RHP) | @PIT Hampton (LHP) | @PIT Ortiz (RHP) | CIN Oswalt (RHP) | CIN Rodriguez (LHP) | CIN Moehler (RHP) | |
| SF Billingsley (RHP) | SF Kershaw (LHP) | SF Stults (LHP) | COL Wolf (LHP) | COL Billingsley (RHP) | COL McDonald (RHP) | |
| CIN Gallardo (RHP) | CIN Parra (LHP) | CIN Looper (RHP) | @NYM Bush (RHP) | @NYM Suppan (RHP) | @NYM Gallardo (RHP) | |
| SD Pelfrey (RHP) | SD Perez (LHP) | SD Maine (RHP) | MIL Hernandez (RHP) | MIL Santana (LHP) | MIL Pelfrey (RHP) | |
| @WAS Moyer (LHP) | @WAS Blanton (RHP) | @WAS Hamels (LHP) | SD Myers (RHP) | SD Park (RHP) | SD Moyer (LHP) | |
| HOU Duke (LHP) | HOU Ohlendorf (RHP) | HOU Karstens (RHP) | ATL Maholm (LHP) | ATL Snell (RHP) | ATL Duke (LHP) | |
| @ARI Wellemyr (RHP) | @ARI Carpenter (RHP) | @ARI Pineiro (RHP) | @CHC Wainwright (RHP) | @CHC Lohse (RHP) | @CHC Wellemyr (RHP) | @CHC Carpenter (RHP) |
| @NYM Silva (RHP) | @NYM Correia (RHP) | @NYM Peavy (RHP) | @PHI Young (RHP) | @PHI Hill (RHP) | @PHI Silva (RHP) | |
| @LAD Johnson (LHP) | @LAD Cain (RHP) | @LAD Zito (LHP) | ARI Sanchez (LHP) | ARI Lincecum (RHP) | ARI Johnson (LHP) | |
| PHI Cabrera (RHP) | PHI Martis (RHP) | PHI Lannan (LHP) | FLA Olsen (LHP) | FLA Cabrera (RHP) | FLA Zimmrmnn (RHP) |
Five must-starts: Chad Billingsley, A.J. Burnett, Yovani Gallardo, Zack Greinke, Scott Kazmir.
6. Javier Vazquez (ATL) -- Tue-FLA (Volstad), Sun-@PIT (Duke)
7. Jon Lester (BOS) -- Mon-@OAK (Braden), Sun-BAL (Uehara): 6-0, 2.81 ERA, 1.40 WHIP in 8 career GS versus Orioles
8. Kevin Slowey (MIN) -- Mon-TOR (Litsch), Sat-LAA (TBD)
9. Edinson Volquez (CIN) -- Mon-@MIL (Gallardo), Sun-@HOU (Moehler)
10. John Danks (CHW) -- Tue-@DET (Porcello), Sun-@TB (Garza): 3-0, 2.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in 3 career GS at Tropicana Field
11. Matt Garza (TB) -- Tue-NYY (Burnett), Sun-CHW (Danks)
12. Chris Carpenter (STL) -- Tue-@ARI (Scherzer), Sun-@CHC (Lilly)
13. Chien-Ming Wang (NYY) -- Mon-@TB (Kazmir), Sat-CLE (Carmona)
14. Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) -- Mon-@CHC (Lilly), Sun-@LAD (McDonald)
15. Jamie Moyer (PHI) -- Mon-@WAS (Cabrera), Sun-SD (Silva): 2-0, 2.25 ERA in 2 GS at Nationals Park in 2008
16. Ted Lilly (CHC) -- Mon-COL (Jimenez), Sun-STL (Carpenter): 6-2, 2.99 ERA, 1.06 WHIP in 11 career GS versus Cardinals
17. Randy Johnson (SF) -- Mon-@LAD (Billingsley), Sun-ARI (Davis)
18. Jesse Litsch (TOR) -- Mon-@MIN (Slowey), Sat-OAK (Cahill): 0.90 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in 3 career GS versus Athletics
19. Mike Pelfrey (NYM) -- Mon-SD (Silva), Sun-MIL (Gallardo): 3.02 ERA, 1.16 WHIP in 18 GS at home in 2008
20. Fausto Carmona (CLE) -- Mon-@KC (Greinke), Sat-@NYY (Wang)
21. Gavin Floyd (CHW) -- Mon-@DET (Miner), Sat-@TB (Kazmir)
22. Chris Volstad (FLA) -- Tue-@ATL (Vazquez), Sun-@WAS (Zimmermann)
23. Doug Davis (ARI) -- Mon-STL (Wellemeyer), Sun-@SF (Johnson)
24. Kyle Davies (KC) -- Tue-CLE (Pavano), Sun-@TEX (Padilla)
25. Glen Perkins (MIN) -- Tue-TOR (Romero), Sun-LAA (Loux): 7-3, 3.84 ERA, 1.39 WHIP in 14 GS at home in 2008
26. Ricky Romero (TOR) -- Tue-@MIN (Perkins), Sun-OAK (Braden)
27. Zach Duke (PIT) -- Mon-HOU (Moehler), Sun-ATL (Vazquez)
28. Zach Miner (DET) -- Mon-CHW (Floyd), Sun-@SEA (Silva): 2-0, 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in past 3 GS versus White Sox
Ten "no thank yous": Daniel Cabrera, Dana Eveland, Shane Loux, Brian Moehler, Vicente Padilla, Carl Pavano, Carlos Silva, Walter Silva, Koji Uehara, Todd Wellemeyer.
Bargain selections remain available in at least 50 percent of ESPN.com leagues, and are listed in alphabetical order.
• Bronson Arroyo (CIN) -- Tue-@MIL (Parra): 2-1, 3.08 ERA, 1.21 WHIP in 7 career games (5 GS) at Miller Park
• Nick Blackburn (MIN) -- Fri-LAA (Moseley): 8-3, 3.17 ERA, 1.26 WHIP in 18 career games (15 GS) at home
• Edwin Jackson (DET) -- Sat-@SEA (Bedard): Win, 7 IP, 7 H, 1 ER at Safeco Field on Aug. 10, 2008
• Paul Maholm (PIT) -- Fri-ATL (Jurrjens): 7-2, 3.36 ERA, 1.18 WHIP in 16 GS at home in 2008
• Sean Marshall (CHC) -- Sat-STL (Wellemeyer): 3.38 ERA in 9 career games (5 GS) versus Cardinals
• David Purcey (TOR) -- Fri-OAK (Outman): 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 5 K's in 2009 debut (April 7 versus Tigers)
• Wandy Rodriguez (HOU) -- Sat-CIN (Harang): 2.89 ERA, 8.86 K/9 in 15 GS at home 2008-09
• Joe Saunders (LAA) -- Thu-@SEA (Rowland-Smith): 2-0, 2.19 ERA in 2 GS at Safeco Field in 2008
Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com and a two-time champion of the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) experts league. You can e-mail him here.
