April 26, 2009, 4:05 PM

Fantasy Forecaster: Take advantage of Yankee Stadium

Comment Print Share
Cockcroft By Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN.com
Archive

Fantasy Forecaster last updated Sunday, April 26 at 4:05 p.m. ET.

On tap: Can you believe it? Through eight games at the new Yankee Stadium (two exhibition, six regular season), there have been 34 home runs hit and 105 runs scored combined between the Yankees and their opponents. Surely you've heard that "Coors Field East" nickname by now, and while eight games is hardly enough to get an accurate read on a ballpark's favoritism, the facts so far are hard to deny.

For that reason, beginning this week I'm adding Yankee Stadium to the list of hitter-friendly ballparks included in the "Team advantages" chart. I'll let you decide whether you want to bump up the Yankees' and their opponents' (this week the Angels) hitters. I know I do, at least until I see evidence the numbers are evening out.

Quick click by section, if you're seeking advice in a specific area:
Team advantages | Weather report | Load up: Hitters
Sleeper hitters | Load up: Stolen bases | Load up: Pitchers
Projected starters | Two-start rankings | One-start bargains

The chart below lists each of the 30 MLB teams' number of games scheduled ("Gm"), home games ("Hm"), games versus right- and left-handed pitchers ("vs. RHP" and "vs. LHP") and games at either hitter- or pitcher- friendly ballparks.

* Note: Rockies' totals versus right- and left-handed pitchers exclude Tuesday game against the Padres, whose starter is unclear. Dodgers' totals versus right- and left-handed pitchers exclude Sunday game against the Padres, whose starter is unclear.

One thing's for sure, it's not like the weather could be much worse than it was the past week, forcing postponements in Boston, New York and Philadelphia and threatening several other games. In Week 4, it's the Great Lakes cities that stand the greater chance at being threatened. Chicago, Cincinnati and Detroit bear watching, judging from the early forecast. A bright spot: May arrives Friday, and the weather tends to improve in that month.

Among specific games that appeared most threatened as of Sunday's update: Mariners-White Sox (80-percent chance of precipitation), Blue Jays-Royals (60) and Padres-Rockies (50) on Monday; Yankees-Tigers (70), Red Sox-Indians (60) and Astros-Reds (60) on Tuesday; Blue Jays-Royals (40) and Cardinals-Nationals (40) on Thursday; and Mets-Phillies (50), Reds-Pirates (50) and Angels-Yankees (50) on Friday.

Weatherproof games: Orioles at Blue Jays (3, Fri-Sun); Pirates at Brewers (3, Mon-Wed); Diamondbacks at Brewers (4, Thu-Sun); Cubs at Diamondbacks (3, Mon-Wed); Athletics at Mariners (3, Fri-Sun); Red Sox at Rays (4, Thu-Sun); Rays at Twins (3, Mon-Wed); Royals at Twins (3, Fri-Sun).

The teams listed below have the most favorable overall hitting matchups, accounting for recent performance, strength of opponents and ballpark factors.

Angels (@BAL-2, @NYY-4): Orioles starters Adam Eaton (the Angels' scheduled Tuesday opponent) and Koji Uehara (Wednesday) have a combined 6.12 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in six starts this season, not to mention calling a hitter-friendly ballpark their home. Then it's off to New York to battle the supposed wind tunnels of new Yankee Stadium, where Yankee opponents have tallied 50 runs, 72 hits and 12 home runs in six regular-season games (28, 47 and 6 if you exclude that absurd 22-4 thrashing at the hands of the Indians). I like those odds.

Yankees (@DET-3, LAA-4): That's four more games in the aforementioned "Coors Field East" against the beleaguered Angels' pitching staff, plus three at Comerica Park, where the Yankees averaged 6.1 runs per game (67 in 11 games) the past three seasons. No matter your opinion on new Yankee Stadium, the facts through eight games are indisputable. Here's another eye-opening stat: Melky Cabrera, who has four home runs in 71 road games since the beginning of last season, has four homers in his first six regular-season contests in the Yanks' new park. Johnny Damon (1.136) and Hideki Matsui (1.289) also have OPS greater than one, and Jorge Posada (.993) isn't a far cry from it. Those are hot streaks I'll exploit.

Phillies (WAS-3, NYM-3): Picking the Phillies in home games is an easy choice, just like it would be with the Rangers -- and I do also approve of Texas' six-at-home-out-of-seven schedule -- but this one gets special mention because of the pitching staffs the team will face. Through Thursday the Mets have a 4.65 team ERA (19th in the majors) and the Nationals 5.36 (23rd), and here's how the ERAs break down by projected opposing starters: Shairon Martis (Monday, 4.11), John Lannan (Tuesday, 4.43), Scott Olsen (Wednesday, 9.00), Mike Pelfrey (Friday, 8.10), Oliver Perez (Saturday, 7.80) and John Maine (Sunday, 7.47). Hey, stop drooling!

Cardinals (@ATL-3, @WAS-4): The Cardinals have been tearing the cover off the ball in home games, but logic dictates that if they managed 60 runs in their past eight contests (7.5 per) against pitching staffs that were supposed to be good (Diamondbacks, Cubs, Mets), then they'll carry their hot hitting into road affairs against struggling pitching staffs. (That's right, I'm saying the Braves are underperforming, at least lately, having allowed 37 runs in their past eight games.) Chris Duncan and Ryan Ludwick don't mind being away from home; they're batting a combined .435 with four home runs and 17 RBIs in 11 road games.

Billy Butler, 1B, Royals: .327 BA, 12 HRs, .948 OPS in 293 career PAs versus left-handers; .347 BA, .857 OPS in 13 career G's at Metrodome
Marlon Byrd, OF, Rangers: .278 BA, 6 HRs, 28 RBIs versus left-handers in 2008-09; .329 BA, .918 OPS in 128 career G's at Rangers Ballpark
Brandon Inge, C/3B, Tigers: .288 BA, .862 OPS versus left-handers in 2007-09; has hit 56 of 102 career HRs (54.9 percent) in home G's
Kosuke Fukudome, OF, Cubs: .362 BA, 1.173 OPS versus right-handers in 2009; .293 BA, .843 OPS in 83 career G's at Wrigley Field
Chase Headley, OF, Padres: .364 BA, 1.081 OPS in 9 G's at Coors Field in 2008; 6-for-16 (.375 BA) lifetime versus Dodgers starters Billingsley, Kershaw and Wolf
Nick Johnson, 1B, Nationals: .415 BA, .881 OPS versus right-handers in 2009; .868 OPS, 4 HRs in 23 career G's at Citizens Bank Park
Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, Padres: .323 BA, 3 HRs in 18 career G's at Coors Field; .297 BA, 4 HRs in 18 career G's at Dodger Stadium
Jason Kubel, OF, Twins: .333 BA, .948 OPS versus right-handers and .361 BA, 1.045 OPS in 10 home G's in 2009

Favorable matchups listed below are selected based upon opponents' catchers allowing a high rate of steals attempts and/or having low caught-stealing percentages.

White Sox (SEA-3, @TEX-3): The White Sox have been a source of sleeper speed thus far, with second-base platoon mates Chris Getz and Brent Lillibridge each a perfect 3-for-3 on stolen-base chances, and starting center fielder Brian Anderson boasting two steals of his own. Alexei Ramirez is also 3-for-11 with a walk and two steals in his past three games, and even if that's not a sign of him shaking his early slump, at least his steals matchups are favorable.

Yankees (@DET-3, LAA-4): Not that you can steal second base when you're belting the ball over the wall with some degree of regularity, but with 10 steals, the Yankees do rank among the top 10 teams in the category thus far. Derek Jeter (2) seems comfortable in his new role atop the lineup, dropping to No. 2 has had no adverse effect on Johnny Damon (3), but the big-time sleeper here is Brett Gardner (4), if he can only hold off Melky Cabrera for his job.

Pirates (@MIL-3, CIN-3): And Nate McLouth is officially on the board! He swiped his first two bags of the season in Week 3, and his matchups in Week 4 remain strong, going up against the two active catchers with the most stolen bases allowed since 2007, Milwaukee's Jason Kendall (176) and Cincinnati's Ramon Hernandez (175). Red-hot Nyjer Morgan is the steals sleeper of the week; he was 3-for-12 with three steals in the three-game series against Florida alone.

Cardinals (@ATL-3, @WAS-4): Tony La Russa doesn't employ the steal as much as your typical manager, partly due to his roster lacking an elite speedster. But when he picks his spots, he's fairly effective, with his team 9-for-11 (81.8 percent success rate) so far this season. This is a good week for him to try the occasional swipe, perhaps with an Albert Pujols (9 steals since the beginning of last season), Skip Schumaker (9) or Khalil Greene (6).

The teams listed below have the most favorable overall pitching matchups, accounting for recent performance, strength of opponents and ballpark factors.

Twins (TB-3, KC-3): They've gotten off to a brutal start in the pitching department, with a team ERA of 6.03 (27th in the majors), WHIP of 1.48 (20th) and OPS allowed of .813 (23rd). Getting back home, though, should help matters, especially if you remember that in the Twins' most recent three-game series, they swept the Angels allowing 12 runs combined. In home games in 2008, this staff ranked third in baseball in ERA (3.27), fourth in WHIP (1.22) and eighth in OPSA (.697), and the Twins return the identical rotation to the one they finished with last season. Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano and Kevin Slowey are far more talented than their numbers thus far; I'll take the chance this is the week they begin to turn it around.

Mariners (@CHW-3, OAK-3): What a reversal! The Mariners, ranked 25th in baseball in 2008 going by team ERA (4.73), lead the majors through Thursday's games with a 3.01 ERA. But that's not all; they also lead in OPSA (.624) and rank fifth in WHIP (1.27), carried by dominating starts by Erik Bedard, now healthy, and Jarrod Washburn. A three-game trip to U.S. Cellular Field might typically scare off matchups-seekers, but not with a pitching staff this hot. This team gets K's, and that offense whiffs a decent share. Good combination.

Dodgers (@SF-3, SD-4): If you're not ready to crown the Mariners baseball's hottest pitching staff, then certainly your pick must be the Dodgers, right? Staff ace Chad Billingsley is a perfect 4-0 in four starts, all of them quality starts, with a 2.05 ERA and 0.87 WHIP, and this team has even gotten a 2-0, 2.61-ERA performance in two spot starts from Eric Stults, which speaks volumes as to how well this staff has fared through three weeks. The Giants rank dead last in baseball in runs per game (3.3) and 29th in team OPS (.643) and the Padres, despite their hot start, totaled 31 runs in nine games at Dodger Stadium in 2008 (3.4 per contest).

Brewers (PIT-3, ARI-4): This has as much to do with the Brewers having been a sneaky-good staff in home games in 2008 as it does the relative mediocrity of Milwaukee's two opponents. The Brewers, after all, ranked fifth in the majors in team ERA at home (3.49), and if you go pitcher by pitcher, Dave Bush had a 3.50 ERA at home, Manny Parra had a 3.41 ERA and Jeff Suppan has a 17-7 record and 3.70 ERA in 38 career starts at Miller Park. There's sleeper potential here.

The chart below lists each of the 30 MLB teams' schedules and projected starting pitchers. Those pitchers scheduled to pitch twice this week are color-coded.

Note: As of most recent update, the San Diego papers are speculating that Chad Gaudin will most likely be promoted to start for the Padres on Tuesday (and presumably also Sunday).

Three must-starts: Chad Billingsley, Dan Haren, CC Sabathia.

4. John Danks (CHW) -- Mon-SEA (Jakubauskas), Sun-@TEX (Millwood): Win, 7 2/3 IP, 7 H's, 4 ERs, 8 K's 7/12/08 at Rangers Ballpark
5. Roy Oswalt (HOU) -- Mon-@CIN (Cueto), Sun-@ATL (Jurrjens): 23-1 lifetime versus Reds; 7-1, 3.25 ERA in 8 career GS at Great American
6. Ted Lilly (CHC) -- Mon-@ARI (Haren), Sat-FLA (Sanchez)
7. Joe Saunders (LAA) -- Tue-@BAL (Eaton), Sun-@NYY (Hughes): 16-5, 2.87 ERA, 1.20 WHIP in 24 road GS from 2007-09
8. Carlos Zambrano (CHC) -- Tue-@ARI (Petit), Sun-FLA (Nolasco): 4-1, 3.05 ERA, 1.34 WHIP in 9 career GS versus Marlins
9. Gil Meche (KC) -- Tue-TOR (Richmond), Sun-@MIN (Baker)
10. Cliff Lee (CLE) -- Mon-BOS (Wakefield), Sun-@DET (Verlander): 3-1, 3.35 ERA, 1.28 WHIP in 8 career GS at Comerica Park
11. James Shields (TB) -- Tue-@MIN (Liriano), Sun-BOS (Penny)
12. Johnny Cueto (CIN) -- Mon-HOU (Oswalt), Sun-@PIT (Karstens): 1-1, 2.65 ERA, 1.24 WHIP in past 3 GS
13. Randy Wolf (LAD) -- Mon-@SF (Zito), Sat-SD (Young): 1-0, 2.00 ERA, 0.94 WHIP in 3 GS at AT&T Park from 2007-08
14. Ricky Nolasco (FLA) -- Tue-@NYM (Hernandez), Sun-@CHC (Zambrano)
15. Jair Jurrjens (ATL) -- Mon-STL (Pineiro), Sun-HOU (Oswalt): 8-5, 4.10 ERA, 1.53 WHIP in 17 career GS at Turner Field
16. Dave Bush (MIL) -- Tue-PIT (Maholm), Sun-ARI (Petit): 6-4, 3.54 ERA, 1.08 WHIP in 18 home G's (17 GS) from 2008-09
17. Chris Young (SD) -- Mon-@COL (Hammel), Sat-@LAD (Wolf): 3-1, 4.20 ERA, 1.30 WHIP in 6 career GS at Coors Field
18. Joe Blanton (PHI) -- Mon-WAS (Martis), Sun-NYM (Maine): 1-0, 2.14 ERA, 0.95 WHIP in 3 career GS versus Mets
19. Justin Verlander (DET) -- Mon-NYY (Sabathia), Sun-CLE (Lee)
20. Scott Baker (MIN) -- Mon-TB (Niemann), Sun-KC (Meche): 5-2, 2.60 ERA, 0.88 WHIP in 9 career GS versus Royals
21. Anibal Sanchez (FLA) -- Mon-@NYM (Maine), Sat-@CHC (Lilly)
22. Tim Wakefield (BOS) -- Mon-@CLE (Lee), Sat-@TB (Niemann): 9-3, 2.86 ERA, 1.16 WHIP in 23 career G's (17 GS) at Tropicana Field
23. Joel Pineiro (STL) -- Mon-@ATL (Jurrjens), Sat-@WAS (Martis)
24. Brad Penny (BOS) -- Tue-@CLE (Reyes), Sun-@TB (Shields)
25. Kevin Millwood (TEX) -- Tue-OAK (Anderson), Sun-CHW (Danks)
26. John Maine (NYM) -- Mon-FLA (Sanchez), Sun-@PHI (Blanton)
27. David Purcey (TOR) -- Mon-@KC (Bannister), Sat-BAL (Bergesen)
28. Phil Hughes (NYY) -- Tue-@DET (Jackson), Sun-LAA (Saunders)
29. Barry Zito (SF) -- Mon-LAD (Wolf), Sun-COL (Hammel): 2-2, 2.57 ERA, 1.12 WHIP in 7 career GS versus Rockies
30. Kyle Lohse (STL) -- Tue-@ATL (Reyes), Sun-@WAS (Lannan)
31. Braden Looper (MIL) -- Mon-PIT (Karstens), Sat-ARI (Haren): 3-2, 3.90 ERA, 1.23 WHIP in 6 G's (5 GS) versus Pirates from 2007-08
32. Yusmeiro Petit (ARI) -- Mon-CHC (Lilly), Sat-@MIL (Looper)
33. Brian Bannister (KC) -- Mon-TOR (Purcey), Sat-@MIN (Perkins)
34. Jeff Karstens (PIT) -- Mon-@MIL (Looper), Sun-CIN (Cueto)

Ten "no thank yous": Brett Anderson, Josh Geer, Jeremy Guthrie, Jason Hammel, Matt Harrison, Chris Jakubauskas, John Lannan, Shairon Martis, Jeff Niemann, Scott Richmond.

Bargain selections remain available in at least 50 percent of ESPN.com leagues, and are listed in alphabetical order.

Bronson Arroyo (CIN) -- Fri-@PIT (Duke): 3.75 ERA, 1.46 WHIP in 4 GS at PNC Park 2006-08
Nick Blackburn (MIN) -- Wed-TB (Kazmir): 8-3, 3.32 ERA in 19 career home G's (16 GS)
Aaron Cook (COL) -- Wed-SD (Correia): 11-4, 2.74 ERA in 20 career G's (18 GS) versus Padres
Gavin Floyd (CHW) -- Wed-SEA (Bedard): 10-4, 3.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP in 18 home GS 2008-09
Kenshin Kawakami (ATL) -- Sat-HOU (Ortiz): .732 OPS in 2 home GS; Astros 24th in OPS (.707)
Justin Masterson (BOS) -- Fri-@TB (Sonnanstine): 5-3, 3.49 ERA, 1.25 WHIP in 10 career GS
Glen Perkins (MIN) -- Sat-KC (Bannister): 8-4, 3.30 ERA, 1.23 WHIP in 28 career home G's
Jarrod Washburn (SEA) -- Sat-OAK (Outman): 4.08 ERA, 1.21 WHIP versus Athletics 2007-08
Todd Wellemeyer (STL) -- Fri-@WAS (Zimmermann): Win, 6 IP, 5 H's, 0 ERs, 5 K's 6/5/08 at Nationals Park

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com and a two-time champion of the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) experts league. You can e-mail him here.