Daily Notes for the Weekend: Johnson leads the way
Saturday's schedule highlights a crew of aces, from Josh Johnson to Tim Lincecum, and Josh Beckett to Johan Santana, just to name a few. On the flip side of things, many of Sunday's starters are a bit more unheralded, as injuries have begun to play havoc with many teams' rotations and several rookies continue their indoctrination into the big leagues. But fear not, as we break it all down for you below:
Starting pitcher rankings for Saturday, April 18 (* all stats listed are from 2008)
| Name | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  | Josh Johnson | R | 7-1 | 3.61 | 1.35 | 7.94 | .723 | @ | .696 | 80.1% |
| 2 |  | Josh Beckett | R | 12-10 | 4.03 | 1.19 | 8.88 | .700 |  | .762 | 82.2% |
| 3 |  | Chad Billingsley | R | 16-10 | 3.14 | 1.34 | 9.01 | .687 |  | .751 | 78.2% |
| 4 |  | Johan Santana | L | 16-7 | 2.53 | 1.15 | 7.91 | .648 |  | .757 | 78.3% |
| 5 | | Yovani Gallardo | R | 0-0 | 1.88 | 1.25 | 7.50 | .723 | @ | .761 | 81.7% |
| 6 |  | Fausto Carmona | R | 8-7 | 5.44 | 1.62 | 4.33 | .759 | @ | .769 | 81.8% |
| 7 |  | Scott Kazmir | L | 12-8 | 3.49 | 1.27 | 9.81 | .727 |  | .780 | 81.7% |
| 8 |  | Tim Lincecum | R | 18-5 | 2.62 | 1.17 | 10.51 | .612 |  | .742 | 76.2% |
| 9 |  | Wandy Rodriguez | L | 9-7 | 3.54 | 1.31 | 8.58 | .717 |  | .729 | 79.4% |
| 10 | | Mark Buehrle | L | 15-12 | 3.79 | 1.34 | 5.76 | .747 | @ | .762 | 77.9% |
| 11 |  | Ryan Dempster | R | 17-6 | 2.96 | 1.21 | 8.14 | .642 |  | .783 | 82.5% |
| 12 |  | Brett Myers | R | 10-13 | 4.55 | 1.38 | 7.72 | .791 |  | .707 | 77.4% |
| 13 | | Kyle Lohse | R | 15-6 | 3.78 | 1.30 | 5.36 | .734 | @ | .797 | 78.8% |
| 14 | | Aaron Cook | R | 16-9 | 3.96 | 1.34 | 4.09 | .739 | @ | .732 | 81.3% |
| 15 | | Doug Davis | L | 6-8 | 4.32 | 1.53 | 6.90 | .775 | @ | .703 | 81.2% |
| 16 | | Aaron Harang | R | 6-17 | 4.78 | 1.38 | 7.47 | .838 | @ | .737 | 80.7% |
| 17 |  | Erik Bedard | L | 6-4 | 3.67 | 1.32 | 8.00 | .697 |  | .784 | 80.9% |
| 18 |  | Kevin Slowey | R | 12-11 | 3.99 | 1.15 | 6.90 | .728 |  | .743 | 82.2% |
| 19 |  | Zack Greinke | R | 13-10 | 3.47 | 1.28 | 8.14 | .715 | @ | .816 | 78.9% |
| 20 | | Edwin Jackson | R | 14-11 | 4.42 | 1.51 | 5.30 | .796 | @ | .707 | 84.2% |
| 21 |  | Trevor Cahill | R | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | @ | .731 | 83.0% |
| 22 | | Chien-Ming Wang | R | 8-2 | 4.07 | 1.32 | 5.12 | .654 | | .763 | 78.1% |
| 23 | | Kevin Millwood | R | 9-10 | 5.07 | 1.59 | 6.67 | .823 | | .717 | 82.1% |
| 24 |  | Jo-Jo Reyes | L | 3-11 | 5.81 | 1.65 | 6.21 | .877 | @ | .723 | 81.5% |
| 25 | | Brian Tallet | L | 1-2 | 2.88 | 1.31 | 7.51 | .664 | | .686 | 77.5% |
| 26 | | Darren Oliver | L | 7-1 | 2.88 | 1.15 | 6.00 | .682 | @ | .748 | 82.6% |
| 27 | | Ian Snell | R | 7-12 | 5.42 | 1.76 | 7.39 | .859 | | .753 | 81.7% |
| 28 | | Shawn Hill | R | 1-5 | 5.83 | 1.75 | 5.54 | .878 | @ | .770 | 79.7% |
| 29 | | Adam Eaton | R | 4-8 | 5.80 | 1.64 | 4.79 | .868 | @ | .805 | 80.9% |
| 30 | | Scott Olsen | L | 8-11 | 4.20 | 1.31 | 5.04 | .751 | | .759 | 75.1% |
Rk.: The author's ranking of that pitcher for that day only. T: pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Record: pitcher's win-loss record. ERA: pitcher's earned run average. WHIP: pitcher's average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning. K/9: pitcher's average number of strikeouts per nine innings. OPSA: pitcher's on-base plus slugging percentage surrendered to opponents. OPS: pitcher's opponent's composite team on-base plus slugging percentage. CT%: pitcher's opponent's success rate putting the ball in play (versus striking out).
Selected notes for Saturday: Josh Johnson once again tops our rankings, and it should come as no surprise with his career 4-0 record with a 2.48 ERA versus the Nationals, who have hit only .208 against the emerging superstar … Josh Beckett's suspension is on hold until his appeal is heard, which might take awhile. In the interim, we expect him to take out his frustrations over the whole incident against Baltimore. … Chad Billingsley ahead of Johan Santana? Call this one a hunch, as Billingsley is 10 games better than .500 for his career at Dodger Stadium and facing a Rockies team hitting only .216 on the road. Meanwhile, Johan has a 4.26 ERA in his past three outings against the Brewers. But, relax, he's still Johan, so we drop him only to No. 4 on our list. … Aaron Harang's track record against Houston (23 homers allowed in 19 starts) drops him into the middle of the pack, while Edwin Jackson's stock rises a bit due to his career 2-0, 0.60 ERA against the Mariners. … And we'll steer clear of Scott Olsen completely, since he's not likely to get much run support against Josh Johnson, and his former Florida teammates probably know his pitching tendencies enough to capitalize big-time.
Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday, April 19 (* all stats listed are from 2008)
| Name | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | | Jon Lester | L | 16-6 | 3.21 | 1.27 | 6.50 | .688 | | .762 | 82.2% |
| 2 | | Javier Vazquez | R | 12-16 | 4.67 | 1.32 | 8.64 | .755 | @ | .723 | 81.5% |
| 3 | | Edinson Volquez | R | 17-6 | 3.21 | 1.33 | 9.46 | .681 | @ | .737 | 80.7% |
| 4 | | Matt Garza | R | 11-9 | 3.70 | 1.24 | 6.24 | .683 | | .780 | 81.7% |
| 5 | | Gavin Floyd | R | 17-8 | 3.84 | 1.26 | 6.32 | .738 | @ | .762 | 77.9% |
| 6 | | Ubaldo Jimenez | R | 12-12 | 3.99 | 1.43 | 7.79 | .691 | @ | .732 | 81.3% |
| 7 | | Chris Volstad | R | 6-4 | 2.88 | 1.33 | 5.55 | .648 | @ | .696 | 80.1% |
| 8 | | A.J. Burnett | R | 18-10 | 4.07 | 1.34 | 9.39 | .710 | | .763 | 78.1% |
| 9 | | Todd Wellemeyer | R | 13-9 | 3.71 | 1.25 | 6.29 | .724 | @ | .797 | 78.8% |
| 10 | | Glen Perkins | L | 12-4 | 4.41 | 1.47 | 4.41 | .837 | | .743 | 82.2% |
| 11 | | Ted Lilly | L | 17-9 | 4.09 | 1.23 | 8.09 | .734 | | .783 | 82.5% |
| 12 | | Randy Johnson | L | 11-10 | 3.91 | 1.24 | 8.46 | .728 | | .742 | 76.2% |
| 13 | | Max Scherzer | R | 0-4 | 3.05 | 1.23 | 10.61 | .649 | @ | .703 | 81.2% |
| 14 | | Dallas Braden | L | 5-4 | 4.14 | 1.42 | 5.15 | .771 | @ | .731 | 83.0% |
| 15 | | Jeff Suppan | R | 10-10 | 4.96 | 1.54 | 4.56 | .844 | @ | .761 | 81.7% |
| 16 | | Ricky Romero | L | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | | .686 | 77.5% |
| 17 | | Zach Duke | L | 5-14 | 4.82 | 1.50 | 4.23 | .812 | | .753 | 81.7% |
| 18 | | Daniel Cabrera | R | 8-10 | 5.25 | 1.61 | 4.75 | .826 | | .759 | 75.1% |
| 19 | | Koji Uehara | R | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | @ | .805 | 80.9% |
| 20 | | Kyle Davies | R | 9-7 | 4.06 | 1.45 | 5.65 | .762 | @ | .816 | 78.9% |
| 21 | | Vicente Padilla | R | 14-8 | 4.74 | 1.46 | 6.68 | .798 | | .717 | 82.1% |
| 22 | | Shane Loux | R | 0-0 | 2.81 | 1.13 | 2.25 | .685 | @ | .748 | 82.6% |
| 23 | | Alberto Arias | R | 1-1 | 4.15 | 1.52 | 5.40 | .754 | | .729 | 79.4% |
| 24 | | Mike Pelfrey | R | 13-11 | 3.72 | 1.36 | 4.93 | .734 | | .757 | 78.3% |
| 25 | | Rick Porcello | R | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | @ | .707 | 84.2% |
| 26 | | Chan Ho Park | R | 4-4 | 3.40 | 1.40 | 7.46 | .749 | | .707 | 77.4% |
| 27 | | Josh Geer | R | 2-1 | 2.67 | 1.41 | 5.33 | .704 | @ | .770 | 79.7% |
| 28 | | James McDonald | R | 0-0 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 | .534 | | .751 | 78.2% |
| 29 | | Carl Pavano | R | 4-2 | 5.77 | 1.49 | 3.93 | .842 | @ | .769 | 81.8% |
| 30 | | Carlos Silva | R | 4-15 | 6.46 | 1.60 | 4.05 | .868 | | .784 | 80.9% |
Rk.: The author's ranking of that pitcher for that day only. T: pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. Record: pitcher's win-loss record. ERA: pitcher's earned run average. WHIP: pitcher's average number of walks plus hits surrendered per inning. K/9: pitcher's average number of strikeouts per nine innings. OPSA: pitcher's on-base plus slugging percentage surrendered to opponents. OPS: pitcher's opponent's composite team on-base plus slugging percentage. CT%: pitcher's opponent's success rate putting the ball in play (versus striking out).
Selected notes for Sunday: Our top pick for Sunday is Jon Lester, who has never lost to the Orioles, going 6-0 with a 2.81 ERA, in spite of his 0-2 start to 2009. … Matt Garza is pitching at home (Tropicana Field), where he has a career 2.87 ERA and a 7-3 record. … Ubaldo Jimenez is 4-0 for his career against the Dodgers, including two wins and 11 strikeouts in his past two starts against them. … A.J. Burnett's history versus the Indians (1-4, 7.20 ERA) drops him behind Chris Volstad (facing Washington) into the lower part of our top 10. … We like Kyle Davies, generally speaking, but not against the powerful Rangers lineup that has done well against him in the past to the tune of a .329 batting average in four starts. Davies is 0-3 with a 5.89 ERA in those games. … Houston has yet to name its replacement for the injured Brian Moehler, but recent call-up Alberto Arias is the likely choice. Similarly, Mike Pelfrey may be skipped on Sunday due to forearm tendinitis and replaced by Nelson Figueroa. Even if he does end up pitching, it's probably best to avoid him. … And last on our list is Carlos Silva of the Mariners. If you need a reason, how about the fact that six hitters in the regular Tigers lineup have batting averages of .333 or higher against Silva in at least 14 career at-bats. That's not good news for Carlos.
Hitters' count:
• Lance Berkman, 1B, Astros: Berkman may not be hitting the cover off the ball, but he may well be ready to break out against Aaron Harang. Lance has six career home runs against the right-hander.
• Ty Wigginton, 3B, Orioles: With teammate Melvin Mora now on the disabled list, perhaps we'll finally start to get Mora out of Ty? He has three career homers and a .909 slugging percentage versus Josh Beckett.
• Brian McCann, C, Braves: Ian Snell doesn't like seeing McCann in the batter's box. Can you blame him? McCann is a career .643 hitter against him.
• Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Cubs: If his stiff back isn't acting up, Ramirez is a good play on Saturday. He's 7-for-11 with a home run and five RBIs in his career facing Kyle Lohse.
• Carl Crawford, OF, Rays: Mark Buehrle brings out the best in Crawford, as the Tampa Bay outfielder is 10-for-21 with four RBIs against him.
• Randy Winn, OF, Giants: He's creeping up steadily on being owned in half of ESPN leagues, and this Saturday should put him over the top. Winn has hit .382 with a pair of homers in 34 at-bats opposite Doug Davis.
• Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies: No real slow start to 2009 for Ryan, and no sign of him slowing down against Shawn Hill, as the .455 batting average and 1.364 OPS would seem to indicate.
• Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers: Weeks has two home runs already on the young season. While there are many players who don't want to "mess with the Johan," Weeks has done just fine against Mr. Santana in the past, with a .700 OBP and two home runs.
Pitchers' count:
• Jason Giambi, 1B, Athletics: Don't be surprised if his "sore legs" act up again with Brian Tallet on the mound. Giambi is 0-for-7 with three strikeouts for his career against Tallet.
• Mike Lowell, 3B. Red Sox: Lowell could use a day off himself, maybe take in the sights of the nearby town that bears his name? Lowell is hitless in 10 at-bats against Adam Eaton.
• Garrett Atkins, 3B, Rockies: Our patience is wearing thin with Atkins, and it won't get any thicker after he faces Chad Billingsley, who has retired Garrett in 14 of 15 official times at bat.
• Jay Bruce, OF, Reds: His first 30 at-bats yielded a .167 average in 2009. As for the next set, don't expect much difference facing Wandy Rodriguez. Bruce is 1-for-12 against the Astros pitcher.
• Stephen Drew, SS, Diamondbacks: Eight strikeouts and only two hits in 20 at-bats against Tim Lincecum. I don't care if Tim has been a bit off his game of late. That does not bode well for Drew on Saturday.
• Jimmy Rollins, SS, PHI: J-Roll has been retired eight out of every nine times so far this season, so maybe his career .188 average against Shawn Hill is actually good news?
• Jim Thome, DH, White Sox: As his batting average continues to plummet, more bad news appears on the horizon in the form of a career 0-for-13 against Scott Kazmir.
• Victor Martinez, C/1B, Indians: V-Mart is hitting only .214 for his career against Chien-Ming Wang, so if the Tribe don't give him the day off, perhaps you may wish to.
Deep inside the matchups
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• Luke Scott, OF, Orioles: Owned in only 3.6 percent of leagues, Scott is slugging .586 for 2009. He also is 5-for-8 in his career, with a home run, against Josh Beckett of the Red Sox.
• Mike Napoli, C, Angels: With Vladimir Guerrero likely to miss more playing time over the next few weeks, Napoli could wind up playing every day, as catcher, as well as in the DH spot. He's also 3-for-5 against Kevin Slowey, with two RBIs.
• Geoff Blum, 3B, Astros: Yes, more leagues have a team with Blum on a roster than Aaron Boone, but sadly it's really, really close. Still you may consider picking him up versus Aaron Harang, as Blum sports a .583 batting average when Harang's on the mound.
• John Buck, C, Royals: Not every day is a Buck day, with Miguel Olivo in the mix, but this one should be. Buck has six RBIs and a .467 average facing Kevin Millwood.
• Melky Cabrera, OF, Yankees: Brett Gardner isn't exactly wowing them in the new Yankee Stadium. Perhaps Cabrera can give him a day off and capitalize on his .733 OPS against Fausto Carmona?
• Mark Loretta, 2B, Dodgers : Aaron Cook would be thrilled if Loretta stays on the bench when these teams face off on Saturday. Loretta has been 12-for-26 against Cook over the years.
Hitters' count:
• Carlos Guillen, 3B, Tigers: Is this the slump-busting matchup Guillen has been waiting for? Three home runs, 14 RBIs and a .486 batting average against Carlos Silva better do the trick.
• Paul Konerko, 1B, White Sox: Konerko could be Chicago's best chance against Matt Garza, thanks to his career .600 batting average against the Rays pitcher.
• Johnny Damon, OF, Yankees: Not that all players in pinstripes aren't more appealing against Carl Pavano, but Damon is especially so, with a career 1.429 OPS.
• Adam Jones, OF, Orioles: The man I call Dig Dug should give Jon Lester a big headache if the .571 career OBP against him is any indication.
• Bobby Abreu, OF, Angels: Maybe he just likes Sundays? Abreu makes our list for the second week in a row thanks to an .857 slugging percentage against Glen Perkins.
• Nate McLouth, OF, Pirates: Javier Vazquez may well beat the Pirates, but not if McLouth has anything to say about it. He has five RBIs in five at-bats against him, without the benefit of a home run.
• Coco Crisp, OF, Royals: We haven't had much to say about Covelli's .226 start to 2009, but 6-for-12 against Vicente Padilla could be a launching pad for the compliments.
• Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers: He's got two doubles and a home run in only 10 career at-bats against Ubaldo Jimenez, but we don't doubt those numbers will continue to grow on Sunday.
Pitchers' count:
• Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers: Braun is hitting .237 for his career against the Mets and has never taken one of their pitchers deep.
• Jorge Cantu, 1B/3B, Marlins: Cantu has only one hit in 12 career at-bats against Daniel Cabrera.
• Yadier Molina, C, Cardinals: Ted Lilly makes Molina look silly, with five strikeouts in 23 at-bats, and a .174 batting average against him.
• Carlos Delgado, 1B, Mets: Delgado does have two home runs off Jeff Suppan, but unless walks count for you (11 in 45 plate appearances), the .222 career average is going to drag you down.
• Derrek Lee, 1B, Cubs: Lee's never done well against Todd Wellemeyer, managing only two hits in 12 career at-bats against the right-hander.
• Henry Blanco, C, Padres: Expecting Blanco to get a hit against Chan Ho Park isn't wise. So far he's a "Blanco" for his career, with a lifetime 0-for-11 against him and four whiffs.
• Marlon Byrd, OF, Rangers: Owned in only 2.1 percent of ESPN leagues, despite his .417 average. That lucky 2.1 percent will enjoy hearing about his .625 batting average against Kyle Davies.
• Denard Span, OF, Twins: Shane Loux doesn't have a lot of history with too many hitters, but Span may recall tagging him for a three-run shot last August.
• Tony Clark, 1B, Diamondbacks: Odds are he won't get the call against Randy Johnson, but he should. He's 4-for-9 for his career against the Big Unit, with a big home run, to boot.
• Mark Teahen, 2B, Royals: With Alex Gordon on the shelf, Teahen should be seeing a lot more action, and that means his career .444 against Vicente Padilla could come into play.
• Reed Johnson, OF, Cubs: He's 5-for-12 lifetime against Todd Wellemeyer, and he could easily find his way in the lineup instead of the oft-injured, hot-headed Milton Bradley.
Injury list: Out
• Alex Gordon, 3B, Royals (15-day disabled list, hip surgery)
• Kenji Johjima, C, Mariners (15-day disabled list, hamstring)
• Xavier Nady, OF, Yankees (15-day disabled list, elbow)
• Vladimir Guerrero, DH, Angels (strained pectoral muscle): Already limited to DH duties, Vlad is meeting with doctors to address his lingering problem.
• Jorge Campillo, P, Braves (15-day disabled list, shoulder tendinitis)
• David Riske, P, Brewers (15-day disabled list, elbow tightness)
• Doug Mientkiewicz, 1B, Dodgers (15-day disabled list, dislocated shoulder)
Injury list: Day-to-day
• Yunel Escobar, SS, Braves (abdominal strain): The team expects him to miss games through the weekend, though Escobar says he thinks he can play.
• Walter Silva, P, Padres (forearm tightness): Silva will miss his scheduled start on Sunday and might be headed for the disabled list.
• Ronnie Belliard, 2B, Nationals (back): He's available to pinch hit, but might not be capable of much more.
• Brian Schneider, C, Mets (back/leg): Early-season soreness and a slow start have led the Mets to rest Schneider for a few days.
• The weekend's weatherproof games: Reds-Astros, Angels-Twins, Tigers-Mariners, White Sox-Rays and Athletics-Blue Jays.
• A wet weekend on tap in Boston with a 50 percent chance of rain on Saturday evening and into Sunday is threatening both games against the O's.
• Rain also threatens Sunday's play in Pittsburgh (40 percent chance) and Chicago (50 percent chance) but they should be able to get the games in New York in, as only occasional showers are expected.
• Colorado is on the road, so the Rockies will be clear of the snow issues, but lingering thunderstorms from that same storm system could threaten play in Texas on Saturday.
AJ Mass is a fantasy baseball, football and college basketball analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.
