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May 19, 2009, 3:49 PM

Carpenter is back, but trustworthy?

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By Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN.com
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Chris Carpenter makes his triumphant return to the Cardinals' rotation on Wednesday, pressed into action in the all-important division-rivals series against the Cubs after throwing 120 successful pitches in a bullpen session this past Friday. He's not the only on-the-mend pitcher working on Wednesday: Ervin Santana will make his second start of the season, with a much comfier matchup than in his 2009 debut.

But neither of those games presents the pitchers' duel of the day: Brewers versus Astros. Yovani Gallardo versus Wandy Rodriguez. It's a battle to behold, and certainly the one I'll have my eyes on (OK, during the commercial breaks of the Yankees game, of course)!

One note for Wednesday: The Diamondbacks and Marlins, who have had to deal with bad weather all week, will attempt to squeeze in a doubleheader.

For starters

Starting pitcher rankings for May 20, 2009

Rk	Team	Name	T	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K/9	OPSA	Opp	OPS	CT%
1		Yovani Gallardo	R	4-1	3.09	1.05	9.06	.622	@HOU	.737	82.2%
2		Wandy Rodriguez	L	4-2	1.90	1.00	8.31	.542	MIL	.788	75.4%
3		Justin Verlander	R	3-2	4.29	1.19	12.34	.645	TEX	.829	77.2%
4		Scott Kazmir	L	4-3	6.97	1.86	6.97	.888	OAK	.658	82.0%
5		Javier Vazquez	R	3-3	3.71	1.13	11.31	.652	COL	.765	78.1%
6		Aaron Harang	R	3-4	3.44	1.28	7.39	.691	PHI	.800	81.3%
7		Chris Volstad	R	2-3	3.35	1.14	6.70	.687	ARI	.708	76.8%
8		Ervin Santana	R	0-0	5.40	2.00	9.00	.878	@SEA	.690	83.1%
9		Francisco Liriano	L	2-4	5.21	1.37	7.52	.771	@CHW	.698	79.5%
10		Chris Carpenter	R	1-0	0.00	0.70	8.10	.342	CHC	.766	78.1%
11		John Lannan	L	2-3	4.00	1.47	4.40	.814	PIT	.738	78.7%
12		Doug Davis	L	2-5	3.22	1.17	6.26	.707	@FLA	.696	75.2%
13		Jorge De La Rosa	L	0-3	3.16	1.17	9.49	.603	@ATL	.737	81.6%
14		John Danks	L	2-3	4.82	1.37	8.20	.752	MIN	.765	81.1%
15		Ryan Dempster	R	3-2	4.65	1.29	8.23	.707	@STL	.759	82.7%
16		Jonathan Sanchez	L	1-3	5.06	1.72	9.00	.779	@SD	.706	80.0%
17		Gil Meche	R	2-4	4.60	1.43	7.28	.715	CLE	.777	77.3%
18		Matt Harrison	L	4-2	4.23	1.37	4.84	.740	@DET	.777	81.2%
19		Paul Maholm	L	3-1	3.51	1.27	4.38	.663	@WAS	.811	76.8%
20		Fausto Carmona	R	2-4	5.70	1.54	5.13	.763	@KC	.760	80.7%
21		Chad Gaudin	R	0-3	4.91	1.55	7.36	.629	SF	.685	78.9%
22		Brett Cecil	L	2-0	1.80	1.05	6.75	.642	@BOS	.812	79.9%
23		Jeremy Guthrie	R	3-3	5.21	1.48	5.59	.864	@NYY	.824	81.5%
24		Jamie Moyer	L	3-3	8.15	1.84	4.84	1.042	@CIN	.731	80.2%
25		Chris Jakubauskas	R	2-4	7.13	1.47	3.82	.811	LAA	.761	83.6%
26		Livan Hernandez	R	3-1	5.59	1.53	5.35	.853	@LAD	.795	80.7%
27		Brett Anderson	L	0-4	6.03	1.60	4.31	.830	@TB	.801	77.2%
28		Brad Penny	R	3-1	6.69	1.68	4.95	.887	TOR	.820	83.9%
29		Phil Hughes	R	1-2	7.56	2.10	5.40	1.029	BAL	.770	84.5%
30		Bryan Augenstein	R	0-1	7.11	1.58	4.26	.764	@FLA	.696	75.2%
31		Eric Stults	L	4-1	3.82	1.41	5.97	.731	NYM	.798	83.5%
32		TBD (Badenhop/Penn)		--	--	--	--	--	ARI	.708	76.8%

Rk.: The author's ranking of that pitcher for that day only. T: Pitcher throws left-handed or right-handed. W-L: Pitcher's win-loss record. ERA: Pitcher's earned run average. WHIP: Pitcher's average number of walks plus

Selected notes: Here's the reason that the Yovani Gallardo-Wandy Rodriguez matchup is so intriguing: Gallardo's only career complete game came against these very Astros, on April 24, as he went the distance allowing two runs on five hits while striking out seven. For his career Gallardo is a perfect 3-0 in three starts against Houston, with a 0.75 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and an average of eight innings per turn. But Rodriguez, his counterpart, is a beast in home games, with four quality starts in as many appearances there this year and a 0.67 ERA and 0.65 WHIP in those games. Since 2007 he's 13-9 in 33 starts at Minute Maid Park, with a 2.66 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, so expect a battle. I keep saying it: I don't play for wins, and would be more than pleased with either starter on this day. … We got our first glimpse of what Justin Verlander might do this season in an April 11 start versus Texas, as he struck out eight Rangers in five innings, bringing his career numbers to a 4-1 record, 2.23 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in six starts against that team. It's a home game for him, fortunately, and he's already 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA and 28 K's in 19 innings in three starts at Comerica Park. Give him a big-time thumbs-up. … Scott Kazmir's most impressive start of the season came against Oakland on April 24, as he went six innings of scoreless, two-hit baseball, bringing his career numbers versus that team to a 7-2 record, 2.48 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 12 starts. Though his 2009 numbers there don't speak it, he's always most comfy-cozy at Tropicana Field, where he's 18-11 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 48 starts since 2006. … For a game against the Red Sox, Ervin Santana didn't pitch poorly in his 2009 debut (5 IP, 3 ERs), and in start No. 2 he gets a much easier matchup at Safeco Field, where he went 2-0 with a 1.72 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in his two starts in 2008. Seattle sports baseball's third-worst team OPS (.690), and that number dips even lower against right-handers (.681, 29th). … When Francisco Liriano visited U.S. Cellular Field on April 11 he got hit hard (4 2/3 IP, 6 H's, 5 ERs), and he does have a 3-4 record, 5.66 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 11 road starts since returning from Tommy John surgery. The left-hander did pitch better in his past two road turns, at Detroit on May 4 and New York on May 15, so I'll give him the thumbs-up, but there's a little more downside with him than with your typical young ace. … Should you take the chance on Chris Carpenter? Hmmm. He's 9-5 with a 1.90 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 20 career starts at Busch Stadium, and 7-3 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 14 career starts against the Cubs, who aren't hitting like their usual selves to date. Carpenter has been a little rushed back into action, going without a minor league rehabilitation start and throwing only bullpen sessions and simulated games, but the reports out of St. Louis on his health are favorable enough that he's at least NL-only and deep-mixed worthy for his first start back. … Sneaky matchups play: John Lannan is 1-0 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in four starts at home this season, and he'll be battling a Pirates team that has a .638 OPS versus left-handers, third-worst in the majors. … Though Phil Hughes surely knows he's pitching for his rotation spot, the Orioles torched him on May 9 in Baltimore (1 2/3 IP, 8 H's, 8 ERs), not to mention roughed him up on April 18, 2008, too (5 1/3 IP, 9 H's, 5 ERs). He's also 1-4 with a 5.93 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in 12 career home starts, not at all a good mix. … I don't care what Eric Stults' year-to-date numbers or numbers at home (3-0, 1.83 ERA in 3 GS) are, there's no way I'm starting him against the Mets, who boast baseball's best team OPS versus left-handers (.971).

Now batting

Hitters' count:

• Todd Helton, 1B, Rockies: He remembers Javier Vazquez from the right-hander's days in Arizona, and is 6-for-18 with two homers in his career against the Brave.
• Johnny Damon, OF, Yankees: Besides the fact that he has hit seven of his 10 home runs and has a 1.165 OPS at the new Yankee Stadium, Damon is 7-for-22 (.318 BA) with three extra-base hits, including one homer, against Jeremy Guthrie.
• Nick Swisher, 1B/OF, Yankees: He's 5-for-12 (.417 BA) with three doubles and two walks in his career against Guthrie.
• Nick Markakis, OF, Orioles: The entire Orioles lineup has experienced great success versus Phil Hughes, but Markakis in particular is a standout, going 5-for-10 with two doubles and one walk. And if you believe in those wind tunnels at Yankee Stadium …
• Adam Jones, OF, Orioles: The Orioles will be happy to get him back, seeing as he's 3-for-5 with two doubles in his brief career against Hughes.
• Aubrey Huff, 1B/3B, Orioles: He's 3-for-6 with one home run against Hughes in his career, and even better, he has drawn four walks versus the right-hander.
• Cristian Guzman, SS, Nationals: He's 4-for-7 (.571 BA) with one double and one home run in his career against Paul Maholm.
• Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies: He's 7-for-14 with three doubles and one home run in his career against Aaron Harang, and is a .309 hitter with six home runs, 15 RBIs and a 1.142 OPS in 16 career games at Great American Ball Park.
• Corey Hart, OF, Brewers: He's 10-for-23 (.435 BA) with one double in his career against Wandy Rodriguez, though he hasn't homered against the left-hander.
• Jhonny Peralta, SS, Indians: He's 12-for-35 (.343 BA) with two home runs in his career against Gil Meche. Hey, nice to see he can actually hit someone.
• Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Indians: He's 5-for-9 in his career against Meche.
• Justin Morneau, 1B, Twins: No lefty-versus-lefty worries here; Morneau is 7-for-19 (.368 BA) with two doubles and three home runs in his career against John Danks.
• Michael Cuddyer, OF, Twins: He's 8-for-15 (.533 BA) with three doubles lifetime versus Danks.
• Jason Kubel, OF, Twins: Another case of lefty-can-hit-lefty, Kubel is 3-for-7 with one double and one home run in his career against Danks.
• Alfonso Soriano, OF, Cubs: He'll be happy to hear that Chris Carpenter is back, seeing as he's 12-for-28 (.429 BA) with two homers in his career against the right-hander.
• Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Padres: Another lefty slugger who can hit his scheduled lefty opponent, Gonzalez is 5-for-14 (.357 BA) with two doubles and one home run in his career against Jonathan Sanchez.
• Rafael Furcal, SS, Dodgers: He and Livan Hernandez go waaaaaaaay back, and Furcal has held a steady advantage in their past meetings, batting .333 (22-for-66) with three doubles, one triple and four home runs against the right-hander.

Pitchers' count:

• Michael Young, 3B/SS, Rangers: He's one of the many Rangers who struggle against Justin Verlander, going 3-for-16 (.188 BA) in his career versus the righty.
• Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, Rangers: The Rangers shouldn't even let him play Wednesday, seeing as he's 0-for-6 with four strikeouts against Verlander.
• Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees: One of the very few Yankees to have problems with Jeremy Guthrie, Cano is 2-for-22 (.091 BA) with seven strikeouts and only one extra-base hit, a double, against the Orioles right-hander.
• Adam Dunn, OF, Nationals: Besides the fact that Paul Maholm has held left-handed hitters to an OPS .236 lower than versus right-handers in his career, he has limited Dunn to a 3-for-25 (.120 BA), 10-strikeout, no-extra-base hit performance all time.
• Josh Willingham, OF, Nationals: Don't assume he'd make a smarter starter for Washington over Dunn; he's 1-for-14 (.071 BA) lifetime against Maholm.
• Jason Giambi, 1B, Athletics: He's 2-for-19 (.105 BA) with eight strikeouts and no extra-base hits in his career against Scott Kazmir, their experience against each other is extensive from Giambi's days with the Yankees.
• Orlando Cabrera, SS, Athletics: He's 2-for-17 (.118 BA) lifetime versus Kazmir.
• Ramon Hernandez, C, Reds: He and Jamie Moyer know each other from their various meetings with different teams over the years, and those past battles have been all Moyer; Hernandez is 5-for-37 (.135 BA) against the left-hander.
• Shane Victorino, OF, Phillies: Aaron Harang has limited him to a 1-for-10, one-triple performance in their careers.
• Bill Hall, 3B, Brewers: This is one time the Brewers might want to consider sitting him for the left-handed Mat Gamel, as he's 5-for-26 (.192 BA) with nine strikeouts in his career against Wandy Rodriguez.
• Rick Ankiel, OF, Cardinals: Though it'll be nice to see him back in the lineup, this is hardly the day for fantasy owners to activate Ankiel; he's 1-for-10 with four strikeouts in his career against Ryan Dempster.
• Brian Giles, OF, Padres: He has been shut down to the tune of a .083 lifetime batting average (1-for-12) by Jonathan Sanchez.

If you're hardcore

• Cody Ross, OF, Marlins: Always a quality spot-start fantasy option thanks to his .950 career OPS versus left-handers, Ross is 4-for-13 (.308 BA) with one home run and two walks versus Doug Davis, not to mention he can pad his stats in a doubleheader in which rookie Bryan Augenstein is Arizona's other starter.
• Melky Cabrera, OF, Yankees: Though Brett Gardner is scheduled to return on Wednesday, Cabrera needs to find a spot in the Yankees' lineup, seeing as he's 7-for-15 (.467 BA) with three doubles and one triple in his career against Jeremy Guthrie.
• Ronnie Belliard, 1B/2B/3B, Nationals: Heads-up Manny Acta, you need to get Belliard into the lineup for once, seeing as he's 3-for-6 in his career against Paul Maholm, with two of the hits home runs.
• Alex Gonzalez, SS, Reds: He's 4-for-6 (.667 BA) with two doubles and one home run in his career against Jamie Moyer.
• Mark Teahen, 3B/OF, Royals: He's 10-for-24 (.417 BA) in his career against Fausto Carmona, two of those hits going for doubles.
• Skip Schumaker, 2B/OF, Cardinals: He's 10-for-24 (.417 BA) lifetime versus Ryan Dempster, numbers suspiciously similar to those of Teahen above.
• Henry Blanco, C, Padres: Just something to think about, he was 2-for-2 with both hits home runs off Jonathan Sanchez in their April 11 meeting. Blanco caught Chad Gaudin's most recent start, so there's reason to believe he will again on Wednesday.

Triage

Injury list: Out

• Alex Cora, 2B/SS, Mets (thumb, 15-day DL): Might require surgery, so this probably isn't a short-term absence
• Carlos Delgado, 1B, Mets (hip, 15-day DL): Likely out two months following surgery
• Frank Francisco, RP, Rangers (biceps, 15-day DL)
• Dan Giese, SP/RP, Athletics (elbow, 15-day DL)
• Magglio Ordonez, OF, Tigers (bereavement): Out until at least Thursday
• Landon Powell, C, Athletics (hamstring): Likely DL-bound and the Athletics lack a reliable alternate backup catcher on their 40-man roster
• Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers (wrist, 15-day DL): Expected to undergo season-ending surgery
• Delmon Young, OF, Twins (bereavement): Won't be back until at least Friday

Injury list: Day-to-day

• Alfredo Amezaga, OF, Marlins (knee)
• Rick Ankiel, OF, Cardinals (shoulder, 15-day DL): Expected to return Wednesday
• Mike Aviles, 2B/SS, Royals (forearm)
• Casey Blake, 3B, Dodgers (hamstring): Was hoping to play Tuesday
• Brian Bruney, RP, Yankees (elbow, 15-day DL): Was expected to be activated Tuesday
• Elijah Dukes, OF, Nationals (hamstring)
• Nomar Garciaparra, SS, Athletics (calf, 15-day DL): Might be activated Wednesday
• Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees (shoulder): Expected to return Wednesday
• Josh Hamilton, OF, Rangers (groin)
• Cesar Izturis, SS, Orioles (groin)
• Adam Jones, OF, Orioles (hamstring): Was expected back Tuesday
• Austin Kearns, OF, Nationals (hand)
• Nyjer Morgan, OF, Pirates (hamstring): Was hoping to play Tuesday
• Dioner Navarro, C, Rays (pinkeye): Likely to sit only on Tuesday
• Carlos Quentin, OF, White Sox (heel)
• Edgar Renteria, SS, Giants (hamstring)
• Jose Reyes, SS, Mets (calf)
• Joey Votto, 1B, Reds (flu-like symptoms/dizziness)
• Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, Red Sox (oblique): Expected to be activated Wednesday

Weather concerns

• There are three weatherproof games on Wednesday: Athletics-Rays, Brewers-Astros and Angels-Mariners.
• Rain continues to be a problem in South Florida, as it has been all week, as the Diamondbacks-Marlins doubleheader will be threatened by a 60 percent chance of rain, described as heavy at times. Wind will also be a problem there, ranging from 10 to 18 mph, though the good news is that Miami is the only city faced with rain.
• Wind is the only other factor on Wednesday, and it'll be significant in Atlanta (Rockies-Braves 10-15 mph, gusting to 20), Chicago (Twins-White Sox 15 mph), Detroit (Rangers-Tigers 10-13 mph, gusting to 20) and Kansas City (Indians-Royals 10-16 mph, gusting to 20).

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com and a two-time champion of the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) experts league. You can e-mail him here.