Haren your best bet on Thursday

For starters
Selected notes: Dan Haren has been doing the job, even if the wins haven't come. With a 2-0 record and 1.71 ERA at Kauffman Stadium, we expect him to have another solid showing, and against Luke Hochevar, his team just might be able to score a few runs for him. Left-hander Zach Duke has gone 2-0 in his past three starts and has a 3.78 ERA in 10 career interleague outings, plus Minnesota's right-handed hitters are batting 50 points lower than their left-handed counterparts this season. It seems Jon Lester always pitches well at Fenway Park, as he's 15 games better than .500 with a 3.43 ERA at home. Ubaldo Jimenez also prefers to pitch in the home whites, with a surprisingly low 3.60 ERA at Coors Field. Joel Pineiro may not strike out too many hitters, but he's 6-1 in his career against the Tigers with a 2.82 ERA. That rates him slightly higher than two good pitchers who are due for rebounds after a few sluggish starts, Matt Garza (0-1. 3.57 ERA in his past three) and Randy Wolf (0-1, 5.71 ERA in his past three.) Nick Blackburn also gets a top-10 ranking thanks to his 10-3 record and 2.98 ERA at the Metrodome, but the Pirates are the fourth-best hitting team in the National League, so it won't be a complete walk in the park for him. The toughest bat in the Cubs' lineup might well be Carlos Zambrano's, so we expect Gavin Floyd to have a solid day. We're not sure how the extra rest thanks to Tuesday's rainout will affect Big Z, so we're keeping him close to the middle of the pack. His ERA on four days' rest is 2.84; on five days' rest, it's 4.82. He'll have rested seven days before this start. Livan Hernandez just keeps winning, regardless of the stats, and he has a history of doing well at Camden Yards, with a 2-0 record and 3.95 ERA there. The Mets should be able to score against Jason Berken, so Hernandez won't have to be perfect by any means. Joe Blanton doesn't exactly jump out and scream "Start me!" but he is 4-2 for his career against the Blue Jays, with a 3.12 ERA, and Toronto has been struggling, batting only .229 during the past week. Joba Chamberlain gets only 100 pitches to play with, and lately that's been used up before the sixth inning more often than not. The Nationals are actually a very patient team at the plate, with a .343 team on-base percentage, third in the NL. Chamberlain likely won't last long enough to earn a win, even if he doesn't give up too many runs. As bad as Vicente Padilla and Ricky Nolasco have looked at times this season, they both have the ability to perform well each time they take the mound. Padilla is 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA in his past three starts versus the Astros, and Nolasco whiffed nine Jays on the road in his most recent start. Now that there's some game film on Vin Mazzaro, we think it might be a little rough going for the next few starts, especially as he's not all that overpowering. And although Brandon Morrow certainly has a stellar fastball, he'll be on a much tighter pitch count than even Chamberlain. How many hitters can he strike out in only 60 pitches? Brandon Backe jumps into the rotation thanks to Mike Hampton's being sent to the disabled list. Don't expect much here, except perhaps a whole bunch of home runs from the Rangers.
Now batting
Hitters' count
• Casey Kotchman, 1B, Braves: Back from the disabled list, Kotchman is hitting .313 against the Reds this season. Don't forget to reinsert him into your lineup.
• A.J. Pierzynski, C, White Sox: He has gotten his batting average up to .303 and will face Carlos Zambrano, against whom he has a .978 career OPS.
• Mark Reynolds, 3B, Diamondbacks: He's hitting .333 in June, which is also his career mark against Luke Hochevar.
• Orlando Cabrera, SS, Athletics: He has a .316 lifetime batting average against Randy Wolf with six RBIs in 38 at-bats.
• Melvin Mora, 3B, Orioles: Mora has had a down year so far in 2009, but he should perk up when he sees Livan Hernandez on the mound. He's a .308 hitter against the Mets' scheduled starter.
• Lance Berkman, 1B, Astros: Pity Vicente Padilla. He'll face one of his chief nemeses Thursday, in the form of Berkman, who is 10-for-18 with two home runs and seven RBIs against him.
• Ian Kinsler, 2B, Rangers: He's fresh off of a two-home run game, and with emergency fill-in Brandon Backe on the mound, the hits should keep on coming.
• Magglio Ordonez, OF, Tigers: It's been a long season for Magglio, but he always has had the winning formula against Joel Pineiro, a .409 batting average against the right-hander.
Pitchers' count:
• Geovany Soto, C, Cubs: Although he has no track record against Gavin Floyd, the sight of the White Sox uniform brings out the worst in Soto. He has hit only .238 against the crosstown rivals.
• Jason Bay, OF, Red Sox: Nolasco? No like-o. Bay is only a .200 hitter against the struggling Marlins' starter for his career.
• Mark Teahen, 3B, Royals: It's not time for a spot start of Teahen, if you look at his .182 average against Arizona's Dan Haren.
• Aaron Hill, 2B, Blue Jays: The slumping Hill (a .205 average in June) likely won't get it turned around against Joe Blanton, as he's 1-for-12 against the Philadelphia pitcher.
• Joe Crede, 3B, Twins: Recent back problems and no career hits off Zach Duke make starting Crede on Thursday a very shaky proposition.
• Adrian Beltre, 3B, Mariners: He's been playing well lately but has only a .289 OBP against the Padres in 73 at-bats during the past three seasons.
• Matt Holliday, OF, Athletics: We all know that the knock on Holliday was his performance away from Coors Field, and his track record at Dodger Stadium isn't stellar: only a .261 average, well below his career .316 mark.
If you're hard-core
Deep inside the matchups
Tommy Hanson gets a nice matchup versus Baltimore and Luke Hochevar looks to build on continued success. Inside the Matchups.
• Wes Helms, 3B, Marlins: Not as toothless against the Red Sox as Ed Helms is in "The Hangover." Wes Helms is .333 versus Jon Lester.
• Greg Dobbs, 3B, Phillies: He's batting .500 against Casey Janssen, which may earn him a spot start for the Phillies.
• Nyjer Morgan, OF, Pirates: He has hits in five of his past six starts and already has homered once this series in the Metrodome.
• Gabe Kapler, OF, Rays: After not having a homer all season, he's touched them all in each of the past four games he's played.
• Matt Kata, 2B, Astros: Kata is hitting .429 lifetime against Vicente Padilla, who seems to bring out the best in just about everybody he faces.
• Jason Pridie, OF, Twins: He was just called up to the team and is bound to get his first big league hit sometime. Why not Thursday?
• Mitch Jones, OF, Dodgers: Who is he? A 31-year-old rookie who had 50 RBIs in 50 games with Triple-A Albuquerque. He has pop.
Triage
Injury list: Out
• Mike Hampton, P, Astros (15-day DL, left groin)
• Denard Span, OF, Twins (15-day DL, inner ear infection)
• Geoff Blum, 3B, Astros (15-day DL, hamstring)
• Frank Francisco, P, Rangers (15-day DL, shoulder)
Injury list: Day-to-day
• Hideki Matsui, DH, Yankees (knees): With the Yankees on the road in National League parks, Matsui would have to play the outfield to get more than pinch hitter duty, and his aching knees likely will prevent that from happening.
• Scott Downs, P, Blue Jays (foot): He got hurt running out a ground ball when he was forced to hit under NL rules. X-rays were negative, but it's unclear how long he'll be out of commission.
• Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees (ankle): He was pulled during Tuesday's game with a sore left ankle, and Joe Girardi may keep him out of the lineup until he's satisfied the discomfort is gone.
• Chris Young, P, Padres (shoulder): He'll miss his next start and could even find his way to the disabled list even while an MRI shows no structural damage in his right shoulder.
• Casey McGehee, 2B, Brewers (knee): No word yet on whether he'll miss any time, but McGehee left Tuesday's game in the seventh inning with a sore right knee.
Weather concerns
• The Pirates-Twins matchup in Minnesota is Thursday's lone weatherproof game.
• Another wet forecast, which is becoming old hat for Thursday's Daily Notes. Thunderstorms are in the future for Cincinnati, Chicago, Colorado and Baltimore. Light showers may also cause slippery footing in Philadelphia, Boston and New York. Expect lengthy delays rather than rainouts, though, as these interleague matchups would be incredibly difficult for the league to reschedule.
• Elsewhere, the heat starts to turn up, with temperatures in the 90s on tap for St. Louis, Kansas City and Texas.
AJ Mass is a fantasy baseball, football and college basketball analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.
