June 29, 2009, 5:25 PM

Can Smoltz rebound in second start?

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Madison By Adam Madison
Special to ESPN.com
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Daily Notes
Fantasy owners are anxiously waiting to see how John Smoltz will follow up his rough debut against the Nationals. He may have allowed five runs in that start, but he also struck out five and walked just one, so maybe those 42-year-old bones have something left after all. Remember, any pitcher who can toss five or six decent innings can pick up some extra wins pitching for the Red Sox, and if you can strike out a few batters along the way, even better. To see where he ranks, along with the rest of the pitching landscape Tuesday, read on:

For starters

Selected notes:
With a 5.93 ERA in five starts this month, Johan Santana is at risk of June going down as his worst month since joining the major leagues. You have to go back to May 2004 to find a comparable month, when he finished with a 5.79 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in six starts. He hasn't fanned more than three batters in any of his five starts, and if he allows a home run against the Brewers, it will be the most homers he's ever allowed in a month. That said, he's Johan Santana, the most consistent pitcher in baseball over the past half-decade, so no one's worried -- it's just startling to see such mortality. That's the only reason he's not ranked first or second on the day. … It's nice to see Jordan Zimmermann with a palatable matchup now that interleague play is over -- he faced a murderers' row of offenses in the Rays (on the road), Blue Jays and Red Sox in his AL East matchups. He came out no worse for the wear, allowing a single earned run in the trio of starts, a testament to just how special he could be in the near future. Overall, he has a 1.90 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in June, striking out nearly a batter per inning, but is available in over 90 percent of ESPN leagues. He may be on the lowly Nationals, but it would be foolish to overlook him, and now that he's facing the run-of-the-mill offenses of the Senior Circuit again, you'll want him in your lineup. … A mediocre strikeout rate will always come back to bite a pitcher's behind, as Derek Lowe can inform you: He's struck out 18 batters his past 54 2/3 innings and has now been lit up for six-plus runs in two of his past three starts. The Phillies lead the NL in OPS against right-handers this season, and with Lowe putting up fewer than three K's per nine innings, there's not much upside in starting him, and indeed, if he didn't have such an established track record heading in, he likely would be ranked even lower. … It must be tempting to wipe your eyes when you see that Joe Blanton has struck out 57 batters in 63 1/3 innings the past two months; he came into the season with a career 5.19 strikeout rate. Those extra K's have given him something he's lacked throughout his career: upside. With five quality starts in his past six outings, he looks like a strong spot starter against a middling Braves offense. … Speaking of quality starts, Scott Baker has five consecutive, even whiffing 34 hitters in 34 1/3 innings. He's pitching much better than his 5.17 ERA would suggest. … In four career starts in Arlington, Joe Saunders has a 10.29 ERA and 1.81 WHIP, giving up eight home runs. Stay far, far away.

Now batting

Hitters' count:

Brian McCann, C, Braves: Seven at-bats may be a small sample size, but McCann has dominated Joe Blanton to such an extent -- 6-for-7 with two long balls -- that you have to believe the catcher has his number.
Paul Konerko, 1B, White Sox: The holder of a lifetime .356 batting average (16-for-45), including five home runs, versus Cliff Lee, you definitely want the slugger in your lineup Tuesday.
Adam LaRoche, 1B, Pirates: Normally limited by southpaws, LaRoche has done well against Ted Lilly, with four of his five hits going for extra bases, including a home run, and hitting .417 (5-for-12) overall.
Felipe Lopez, 2B, Diamondbacks: Lopez holds the highest batting average among his teammates versus Bronson Arroyo, going 9-for-21 (.429) with four extra-base hits (one homer). Arroyo always has been porous against left-handers in his career.
Ian Kinsler, 2B, Rangers: Kinsler has crushed lefties this season (.364 average, 10 home runs in 88 at-bats) and in particular has figured out Joe Saunders, with a career .444 average while blasting three dingers, including two in a contest earlier this season.
Carlos Pena, 1B, Rays: Most of Scott Richmond's problems have occurred against left-handed batters, as 23 of his 29 extra-base hits allowed have been slugged by lefties. As a result, they're slugging .527 off him, and Pena, who is already slugging over .600 versus right-handers and is 1-for-2 with a homer against Richmond already, could be in for a big day.

Pitchers' count:

Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies: In 22 at-bats, Howard has been limited to two measly singles against Derek Lowe, and has struck out four times. Lowe has yet to allow a home run to a left-handed batter this season, limiting them to a .603 OPS.
Jermaine Dye, OF, and Jim Thome, DH, White Sox: Dye has struck out 30 percent of the time against Cliff Lee in 30 at-bats, limited to just six hits, five of which were singles, giving him a paltry .300 slugging percentage. Thome isn't much better, hitting .208 in 24 at-bats while slugging .333.
Marco Scutaro, 2B/3B/SS, Blue Jays: Scutaro has hit only one home run since April, and is hitting .255 in June. He's just 5-for-20 (.250) with no extra-base hits and one walk versus Matt Garza.
Mike Cameron, OF, Brewers: In his career, Cameron is much more effective against left-handers rather than righties, but this season it's been the opposite, as he's hit .190 with two home runs in 58 at-bats against southpaws. Even without those depressing numbers, you would probably want to sit him against the likes of Johan Santana nonetheless.
Andre Ethier, OF, Dodgers: Ethier has mustered only a single in 13 at-bats versus Jason Marquis, failing to even draw a walk, leaving him with a worthless .077 batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
Garrett Atkins, 3B, Rockies: Atkins has come alive in June, and even has eight hits in his past 13 at-bats, but he's no match for Chad Billingsley, going 1-for-17 (.059) with five strikeouts in his career against the Dodgers' ace.
Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Indians: Clayton Richard is quite effective against lefties, limiting them to a .243 average and .631 OPS in his two seasons. And Choo, who is hitting 81 points worse against southpaws than right-handers, has proved he should be platooned against righties and benched against lefties.
Hank Blalock, 3B, Rangers: Blalock is just 1-for-10 with three K's versus Joe Saunders lifetime. This isn't surprising considering Saunders' strong track record against southpaws and Blalock's lifetime of futility against them. Only twice has a left-hander taken Saunders out of the park in his career.

If you're hardcore

Josh Willingham, OF, Nationals: Don't look now, but Willingham is 6-for-14 (.428) with three doubles and two walks in his past four games, and has already hit four of his home runs in just 38 at-bats against southpaws this season, so his matchup versus Marlins lefty Sean West looks promising.
Marcus Thames, OF, Tigers: Another lefty, another start for Thames. This time it's against Gio Gonzalez, who has looked promising in Triple-A but has been atrocious in his brief major league career and is known to struggle with bouts of inconsistency.
Scott Hairston, OF, Padres: The lefty masher has struggled a bit since his return from the disabled list, but is still hitting .353 and slugging .662 with four home runs and even three stolen bases in 68 at-bats against southpaws.
Nolan Reimold, OF, Orioles: Despite Luke Scott's return from the disabled list in late May, Reimold has continued to earn the majority of starts in left field, rewarding Orioles brass with four home runs and an 11-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio this month in 66 at-bats. With Scott's recent struggles, Reimold has moved up to fifth in the lineup behind Nick Markakis and Aubrey Huff. Considering he was hitting nearly .400 in Triple-A before being called up this season and is only 25, it's surprising Reimold is available in more than 90 percent of ESPN leagues.
Ryan Freel, OF, Cubs: It didn't take long for Freel to nab his first steal since coming off the disabled list last week, needing just two starts to accomplish the feat. With Reed Johnson recently placed on the disabled list and Mike Fontenot providing little of anything this season, Freel -- who is two games away from qualifying for third base eligibility, and has started the past two games there -- should see enough starts at third, center and second base to provide some cheap speed to those in NL-only leagues.

Triage

Injury list: Out

Adrian Beltre, 3B, Mariners (15-day DL, shoulder): Beltre is expected to undergo shoulder surgery on his nonthrowing shoulder Tuesday, sidelining him for six to eight weeks.

Injury list: Day-to-day

Rod Barajas, C, Blue Jays (hamstring): Barajas will attempt to run Monday, which will help the Blue Jays decide if he needs to head to the disabled list after all.
Ryan Church, OF, Mets (illness): Church felt nauseous on Sunday and was scratched from the starting lineup; he may have picked up the flu from Derek Jeter or Johnny Damon.
• Johnny Damon, OF, Yankees (illness)
Yunel Escobar, SS, Braves (hip)
Khalil Greene, SS, Cardinals (anxiety): Greene was pulled after seven innings on Sunday after going 0-for-3 and the St. Louis Dispatch reports he is likely to go on the disabled list again.
Mike Hampton, SP, Astros (15-day DL, groin): Hampton spent two weeks on the disabled list and will be activated in time to start Tuesday's contest against the Padres.
Mike Lowell, 3B, Red Sox (hip)
Nate McLouth, OF, Braves (hamstring): McLouth tweaked his hammy on Friday and sat out the weekend; he hopes to return Tuesday.
Pablo Sandoval, 1B/3B, Giants (illness): Sandoval left Sunday's game in the sixth inning due to a stomach illness after doubling and scoring a run; the illness is said to be minor.
Chris Young, OF, Diamondbacks (groin): Young returned on Friday, but the Diamondbacks sat him on Saturday and Sunday to give him three days off (including the off day) to let his injury fully heal; he was a pinch-hitter on Saturday and it's assumed he's a good bet to return on Tuesday.

Weather concerns

• The games in Toronto (Rays-Blue Jays) and Milwaukee (Mets-Brewers) are the only weatherproof games of the day.
• The Midwest has a couple of rain possibilities, the highest possibility in Cleveland, with a 60 percent chance of showers. A 30 percent chance of storms also persists in Cincinnati.
• Thunderstorms may strike in Pittsburgh, where there's a 50 percent chance of precipitation. Rain in Baltimore and New York (both 30 percent) is possible, while the rain never stops in Miami, which has a 60 percent chance of facing thunderstorms at game time, but the odds drop to as little as 30 percent throughout the night.

Adam Madison is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com.